BACKGROUND: Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is a common, potentially catastrophic intestinal disease among very low birthweight premature infants. Affecting up to 15% of neonates born weighing less than 1500 g, NEC causes sudden-onset, progressive intestinal inflammation and necrosis, which can lead to significant bowel loss, multi-organ injury, or death. No unifying cause of NEC has been identified, nor is there any reliable biomarker that indicates an individual patient's risk of the disease. Without a way to predict NEC in advance, the current medical strategy involves close clinical monitoring in an effort to treat babies with NEC as quickly as possible before irrecoverable intestinal damage occurs. In this report, we describe a novel machine learning application for generating dynamic, individualized NEC risk scores based on intestinal microbiota data, which can be determined from sequencing bacterial DNA from otherwise discarded infant stool. A central insight that differentiates our work from past efforts was the recognition that disease prediction from stool microbiota represents a specific subtype of machine learning problem known as multiple instance learning (MIL). RESULTS: We used a neural network-based MIL architecture, which we tested on independent datasets from two cohorts encompassing 3595 stool samples from 261 at-risk infants. Our report also introduces a new concept called the "growing bag" analysis, which applies MIL over time, allowing incorporation of past data into each new risk calculation. This approach allowed early, accurate NEC prediction, with a mean sensitivity of 86% and specificity of 90%. True-positive NEC predictions occurred an average of 8 days before disease onset. We also demonstrate that an attention-gated mechanism incorporated into our MIL algorithm permits interpretation of NEC risk, identifying several bacterial taxa that past work has associated with NEC, and potentially pointing the way toward new hypotheses about NEC pathogenesis. Our system is flexible, accepting microbiota data generated from targeted 16S or "shotgun" whole-genome DNA sequencing. It performs well in the setting of common, potentially confounding preterm neonatal clinical events such as perinatal cardiopulmonary depression, antibiotic administration, feeding disruptions, or transitions between breast feeding and formula. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed and validated a robust MIL-based system for NEC prediction from harmlessly collected premature infant stool. While this system was developed for NEC prediction, our MIL approach may also be applicable to other diseases characterized by changes in the human microbiota.

One of the most exciting applications of modern artificial intelligence is to automatically discover scientific laws from experimental data. This is not a trivial problem as it involves searching for a complex mathematical relationship over a large set of explanatory variables and operators that can be combined in an infinite number of ways. Inspired by the incredible success of deep learning in computer vision, we tackle this problem by adapting various successful network architectures into the symbolic law discovery pipeline. The novelty of our approach is in (1) encoding the input data as an image with super-resolution, (2) developing an appropriate deep network pipeline, and (3) predicting the importance of each mathematical operator from the relationship image. This allows us to prior the exponentially large search with the predicted importance of the symbolic operators, which can significantly accelerate the discovery process. We apply our model to a variety of plausible relationships---both simulated and from physics and mathematics domains---involving different dimensions and constituents. We show that our model is able to identify the underlying operators from data, achieving a high accuracy and AUC (91% and 0.96 on average resp.) for systems with as many as ten independent variables. Our method significantly outperforms the current state of the art in terms of data fitting (R^2), discovery rate (recovering the true relationship), and succinctness (output formula complexity). The discovered equations can be seen as first drafts of scientific laws that can be helpful to the scientists for (1) hypothesis building, and (2) understanding the complex underlying structure of the studied phenomena. Our approach holds a real promise to help speed up the rate of scientific discovery.

Power companies can benefit from the use of knowledge discovery methods and statistical machine learning for preventive maintenance. We introduce a general process for transforming historical electrical grid data into models that aim to predict the risk of failures for components and systems. These models can be used directly by power companies to assist with prioritization of maintenance and repair work. Specialized versions of this process are used to produce 1) feeder failure rankings, 2) cable, joint, terminator, and transformer rankings, 3) feeder Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) estimates, and 4) manhole events vulnerability rankings. The process in its most general form can handle diverse, noisy, sources that are historical (static), semi-real-time, or realtime, incorporates state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms for prioritization (supervised ranking or MTBF), and includes an evaluation of results via cross-validation and blind test. Above and beyond the ranked lists and MTBF estimates are business management interfaces that allow the prediction capability to be integrated directly into corporate planning and decision support; such interfaces rely on several important properties of our general modeling approach: that machine learning features are meaningful to domain experts, that the processing of data is transparent, and that prediction results are accurate enough to support sound decision making. We discuss the challenges in working with historical electrical grid data that were not designed for predictive purposes. The “rawness” of these data contrasts with the accuracy of the statistical models that can be obtained from the process; these models are sufficiently accurate to assist in maintaining New York City’s electrical grid.

Automatic seizure detection is becoming popular in modern epilepsy monitoring units since it assists diagnostic monitoring and reduces manual review of large volumes of EEG recordings. In this paper, we describe the application of machine learning algorithms for building patient-specific seizure detectors on multiple frequency bands of intra-cranial electroencephalogram (iEEG) recorded by a dense Micro-Electrode Array (MEA). The MEA is capable of recording at a very high sampling rate (30 KHz) producing an avalanche of time series data. We explore subsets of this data to build seizure detectors - we discuss several methods for extracting univariate and bivariate features from the channels and study the effectiveness of using high dimensional clustering algorithms such as K-means and Subspace clustering for constructing the model. Future work involves design of more robust seizure detectors using other features and non-parametric clustering techniques, detection of artifacts and understanding the generalization properties of the models.

Ranking problems arise in a wide range of real world applications where an ordering on a set of examples is preferred to a classification model. These applications include collaborative filtering, information retrieval and ranking components of a system by susceptibility to failure. In this paper, we present an ongoing project to rank the underground primary feeders of New York City's electrical grid according to their susceptibility to outages. We describe our framework and the application of machine learning ranking methods, using scores from Support Vector Machines (SVM), RankBoost and Martingale Boosting. Finally, we present our experimental results and the lessons learned from this challenging real-world application.

We describe an application of machine learning techniques toward the problem of predicting which network protector switch is the cause of an alive on back-feed (ABF) event in the New York City power distribution system. When an electrical feeder is shut down, all network protector switches connected to the feeder should open to isolate the feeder. When a switch malfunctions and does not open, electrical current flows into the feeder, which remains energized. This causes the feeder to be "alive" on back-feed current, and maintenance cannot proceed. Our goal is to provide a ranking of network protector switches according to their susceptibility to such malfunction. Such a ranking can assist prioritization of which switches to repair when an ABF event occurs. We compare three methods for computing a ranking: an SVM classification approach, a maximum entropy density estimation approach and an SVM-ranking approach.

For many ranking applications we would like to understand not only which items are top-ranked, but also why they are top-ranked. However, many of the best ranking algorithms (e. g., SVMs) are black boxes that give little information about the factors for their rankings. We describe and demonstrate a new approach that can work in conjunction with any ranking algorithm to discover explanations for the items at the top of the rankings. These explanations are in the form of rules expressed as boolean combinations of attribute-value expressions. These rules are discovered by contrasting attributes of items drawn from both the top and bottom of a ranking list, looking for items that have high leverage, corresponding to rules with broad coverage and sharp differentiations. We include empirical results to demonstrate the utility of our method.