Social unrest, a multifaceted phenomenon that is influenced by a variety of interconnected factors, presents substantial obstacles to societal stability and governance. The comprehension of local nuances is frequently restricted by the analysis of drivers of unrest at broad geographic scales or the isolation of specific causes in traditional studies. This paper introduces the SCEIGE framework, which classifies unrest drivers into six essential categories: Socio-demographic, Cultural, Environmental, Infrastructural, Geographic, and Economic. This framework is designed to address these challenges. SCEIGE offers a comprehensive perspective on the fundamental causes of social unrest by modeling geographic spaces at fine resolutions and incorporating a wide range of variables. We further enhance this framework by introducing a novel clustering and machine learning methodology, SC-XG (SCEIGE Clustering with XGBoost), which organizes geographic regions according to SCEIGE patterns. SC-XG not only reveals the local drivers of unrest but also facilitates the predictive analysis of social unrest events. This paper also illustrates the effectiveness of high-resolution SCEIGE geo-rasters in analyzing social unrest and confirms that the drivers of unrest differ across regions, underscoring the necessity of a local-level understanding. We identify critical, region-specific unrest drivers and address the broader implications for predicting and mitigating social unrest globally by applying SC-XG to unrest patterns in India.

This paper proposes Conflict-RAG, a method of working around the limitations of large language models (LLMs) to improve their efficacy in understanding current events and global conflicts. This method includes several steps. First, we create a database of Arabic news sources through web scraping. Then, we use weak supervision to create labels for the data to ensure they are relevant. Next, we use retrieval augmented generation (RAG) to inform the LLM about regional perspectives and current events that it would not otherwise know. Finally, we use an LLM to generate a response to a user’s query in order to answer their question. Our method provides an interface that allows non-Arabic-speaking users to gain an understanding of Arabic news sources. We demonstrate how our method improves response generation from an LLM by investigating the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Social Unrest Reconnaissance Gazetteer (or SURGE) is a Web-based application that provides an open system to visualize and integrate spatio-temporal data about social unrest events with related data layers in South Asia to facilitate data-driven as well as model-based investigations and analyses. Currently, the system displays eight categories of unrest, based primarily on the Global Database of Events, Language and Tone (GDELT) and the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). Users have the ability to select a single day or a range of dates along with the category of unrest they are interested to investigate. The users also have the option to normalize the raw event counts by population density. Additionally, the users can view infrastructure layers that facilitate or hinder the diffusion of unrest events (e.g., collated from an open GIS data-source: OpenStreetMap (www.openstreetmap.org)) and choropleth layers to display various socio-economic indicators (e.g., derived from global surveys and government census data such as the 2011 India census data (cenusindia.gov.in) and IPUMS Terra (data.terrapop.org)). Currently, SURGE displays unrest events for India, Pakistan and Bangladesh as heat map layers in multiple spatial resolutions. Challenges have involved geo-synchronization, data conversions, and displaying multiple layers of dense geospatial datasets. Future capabilities include automatic ingestion of raw data and standardizing levels of unrest using significant predictors.

Redistricting is the process of dividing a geographic area consisting of spatial units-often represented as spatial polygons-into smaller districts that satisfy some properties. It can therefore be formulated as a set partitioning problem where the objective is to cluster the set of spatial polygons into groups such that a value function is maximized [1]. Widely used algorithms developed for point-based data sets are not readily applicable because polygons introduce the concepts of spatial contiguity and other topological properties that cannot be captured by representing polygons as points. Furthermore, when clustering polygons, constraints such as spatial contiguity and unit distributedness should be strategically addressed. Toward this, we have developed the Constrained Polygonal Spatial Clustering (CPSC) algorithm based on the A* search algorithm that integrates cluster-level and instance-level constraints as heuristic functions. Using these heuristics, CPSC identifies the initial seeds, determines the best cluster to grow, and selects the best polygon to be added to the best cluster. We have devised two extensions of CPSC-CPSC* and CPSC*-PS-for problems where constraints can be soft or relaxed. Finally, we compare our algorithm with graph partitioning, simulated annealing, and genetic algorithm-based approaches in two applications-congressional redistricting and school districting.

Clustering is an important task in spatial data mining and spatial analysis. We propose a clustering algorithm P-DBSCAN to cluster polygons in space. P-DBSCAN is based on the well established density-based clustering algorithm DBSCAN. In order to cluster polygons, we incorporate their topological and spatial properties in the process of clustering by using a distance function customized for the polygon space. The objective of our clustering algorithm is to produce spatially compact clusters. We measure the compactness of the clusters produced using P-DBSCAN and compare it with the clusters formed using DBSCAN, using the Schwartzberg index. We measure the effectiveness and robustness of our algorithm using a synthetic dataset and two real datasets. Results show that the clusters produced using P-DBSCAN have a lower compactness index (hence more compact) than DBSCAN.

The traditional point-based clustering algorithms when applied to geospatial polygons may produce clusters that are spatially disjoint due to their inability to consider various types of spatial relationships between polygons. In this paper, we propose to represent geospatial polygons as sets of spatial and non-spatial attributes. By representing a polygon as a set of spatial and non-spatial attributes we are able to take into account all the properties of a polygon (such as structural, topological and directional) that were ignored while using point-based representation of polygons, and that aid in the formation of high quality clusters. Based on this framework we propose a dissimilarity function that can be plugged into common state-of-the-art spatial clustering algorithms. The result is clusters of polygons that are more compact in terms of cluster validity and spatial contiguity. We show the effectiveness and robustness of our approach by applying our dissimilarity function on the traditional k-means clustering algorithm and testing it on a watershed dataset.

Redistricting is the process of dividing a geographic area into districts or zones. This process has been considered in the past as a problem that is computationally too complex for an automated system to be developed that can produce unbiased plans. In this paper we present a novel method for redistricting a geographic area using a heuristic-based approach for polygonal spatial clustering. While clustering geospatial polygons several complex issues need to be addressed - such as: removing order dependency, clustering all polygons assuming no outliers, and strategically utilizing domain knowledge to guide the clustering process. In order to address these special needs, we have developed the constrained polygonal spatial clustering (CPSC) algorithm that holistically integrates do-main knowledge in the form of cluster-level and instance-level constraints and uses heuristic functions to grow clusters. In order to illustrate the usefulness of our algorithm we have applied it to the problem of formation of unbiased congressional districts. Furthermore, we compare and contrast our algorithm with two other approaches proposed in the literature for redistricting, namely-graph partitioning and simulated annealing.