Revealing the underlying causal mechanisms in the real world is crucial for scientific and technological progress. Despite notable advances in recent decades, the lack of high-quality data and the reliance of traditional causal discovery algorithms (TCDA) on the assumption of no latent confounders, as well as their tendency to overlook the precise semantics of latent variables, have long been major obstacles to the broader application of causal discovery. To address this issue, we propose a novel causal modeling framework, TLVD, which integrates the metadata-based reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) with the data-driven modeling capabilities of TCDA for inferring latent variables and their semantics. Specifically, we first employ a data-driven approach to construct a causal graph that incorporates latent variables. Then, we employ multi-LLM collaboration for latent variable inference, modeling this process as a game with incomplete information and seeking its Bayesian Nash Equilibrium (BNE) to infer the possible specific latent variables. Finally, to validate the inferred latent variables across multiple real-world web-based data sources, we leverage LLMs for evidence exploration to ensure traceability. We comprehensively evaluate TLVD on three de-identified real patient datasets provided by a hospital and two benchmark datasets. Extensive experimental results confirm the effectiveness and reliability of TLVD, with average improvements of 32.67% in Acc, 62.21% in CAcc, and 26.72% in ECit across the five datasets.

The automatic and accurate detection of online fake news is crucial to society, drawing significant attention from both industry and academia. With news content becoming increasingly multimodal, assessing its truthfulness has become more challenging. Existing efforts to combat multimodal fake news primarily follow a target-egocentric paradigm, which makes predictions based solely on features extracted from the target news and its associated social context. However, their performance is constrained by the inherent knowledge paucity within the target news. To address this challenge, we propose ReTIP, a novel retrieval-enhanced framework for multimodal fake news detection. ReTIP enriches the knowledge of target news by retrieving relevant news content, along with potential diffusion participants. Specifically, ReTIP retrieves relevant content from a local content pool using a key vector generated through the joint modeling of text and images, and employs a communitybased strategy to retrieve potential participants from a historical user interaction pool. Additionally, ReTIP employs a hypergraphbased information enhancement module to align knowledge across modalities and instances at a fine-grained level by capturing higher-order correlations. Finally, an attention-based fusion layer is employed to aggregate the multi-element knowledge from retrieved instances, which is then concatenated with the target news knowledge for the final prediction. Extensive experiments on three real-world multimodal fake news datasets not only demonstrate the superior performance of ReTIP compared to state-of-the-art baselines but also confirm the effectiveness of its individual components. Our code is made publicly available at https://github.com/xytitor/ReTIP.

Revealing the underlying causal mechanisms in the real world is critical for scientific and technical progress. Despite advancements over the past decades, the lack of high-quality data and the inability of traditional causal discovery algorithms (TCDA) to fully comprehend the exact semantics of variables have long been major obstacles to the broader application of causal discovery. To address this issue, this paper proposes a novel causal modeling framework, LLM-CD, which integrates the metadata-based reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) with the data-driven modeling abilities of TCDA for causal discovery. LLM-CD deeply couples the reasoning abilities of LLMs at various stages of TCDA, and enhances causal discovery through an iterative process. Due to the issues of overconfidence and hallucination in LLMs, LLM-CD quantifies and analyzes its uncertainty by incorporating evidence-based deep learning theory with the assumptions of TCDA. We utilize a large-scale de-identified real patient dataset provided by a hospital, a new dataset extracted from MIMIC-IV about the same disease (lung cancer), and two benchmark datasets to comprehensively evaluate LLM-CD. Extensive experimental results confirm the effectiveness and reliability of LLM-CD, with the highest improvement of 403.93% in the Recall and 25.77% in the Ratio metric across four datasets.

Optimizing stock selection through stock ranking is one of the critical but intricate tasks in quantitative trading areas because of the non-stationary dynamics and complicated interdependencies behind stock markets. Recent studies have made efforts to model historical market movements to enhance stock selection. However, they primarily borrowed the spirit of time series modeling and sought to build a deterministic paradigm without considering the uncertain fluctuations. In addition, some of these studies tailor to explore stock correlations from a predefined (e.g., binary) graph structure and use explicitly simple relations (such as first-order relations) to guide evolving interactions. Nevertheless, aggregating predefined but shallow relationships to collaborate with stock movements may affect selection generalizability and increase the risk of portfolio failure. This study introduces a novelRelational stock selection framework via probabilisticStateSpaceLearning (orRSSL) for stock selection. Specifically, RSSL first attempts to build a tree-based structure to explicitly expose higher-order relations in the stock market, primarily by discovering a hierarchical delineation of ties between stocks. Whereafter, it couples with time-varying movements via an attention mechanism to smoothly explore the interactive correlations among different stocks. Inspired by recent state space models (SSM) in probabilistic Bayesian learning, we devise a Probabilistic Kalman Network (PKNet) with uncertainty estimates to recursively simulate ever-changing stock volatility, enabling more promising return-risk trade-offs. The experimental results on several real-world stock market datasets demonstrate that RSSL outperforms several representative baseline methods by a significant margin.