Traffic forecasting, crucial for urban planning, requires accurate predictions of spatial-temporal traffic patterns across urban areas. Existing research mainly focuses on designing complex spatial-temporal models to capture these dependencies. However, this field faces challenges related to data scarcity and model stability, which results in limited performance improvement. To address these issues, we propose Spatial-Temporal Masked AutoEncoders (STMAE), a plug-and-play framework designed to enhance existing spatial-temporal models on traffic prediction. STMAE operates in two stages. In the pretraining stage, an encoder processes partially visible traffic data produced by a dual-masking strategy, including biased random walk-based spatial masking and patch-based temporal masking. Subsequently, two decoders aim to reconstruct the masked counterparts from both spatial and temporal perspectives. The fine-tuning stage retains the pretrained encoder and integrates it with decoders from existing backbones to improve traffic forecasting accuracy. Our results on traffic benchmarks show that STMAE can largely enhance the forecasting capabilities of various spatial-temporal models.

The Matrix Profile (MP), a versatile tool for time series data mining, has been shown effective in time series anomaly detection (TSAD). This paper delves into the problem of anomaly detection in multidimensional time series, a common occurrence in real-world applications. For instance, in a manufacturing factory, multiple sensors installed across the site collect time-varying data for analysis. The Matrix Profile, named for its role in profiling the matrix storing pairwise distance between subsequences of univariate time series, becomes complex in multidimensional scenarios. If the input univariate time series has$n$subsequences, the pairwise distance matrix is a$n\times n$matrix. In a multidimensional time series with$d$dimensions, the pairwise distance information must be stored in a$n\times n\times d$tensor. In this paper, we first analyze different strategies for condensing this tensor into a profile vector. We then investigate the potential of extending the MP to efficiently find k-nearest neighbors for anomaly detection. Finally, we benchmark the multidimensional MP against 19 baseline methods on 119 multidimensional TSAD datasets. The experiments covers three learning setups: unsupervised, supervised, and semi-supervised. MP is the only method that consistently delivers high performance across all setups.

Spatial-temporal forecasting systems play a crucial role in addressing numerous real-world challenges. In this paper, we investigate the potential of addressing spatial-temporal forecasting problems using general time series forecasting models, i.e., models that do not leverage the spatial relationships among the nodes. We propose a all-Multi-Layer Perceptron (all-MLP) time series forecasting architecture called RPMixer. The all-MLP architecture was chosen due to its recent success in time series forecasting benchmarks. Furthermore, our method capitalizes on the ensemble-like behavior of deep neural networks, where each individual block within the network behaves like a base learner in an ensemble model, particularly when identity mapping residual connections are incorporated. By integrating random projection layers into our model, we increase the diversity among the blocks' outputs, thereby improving the overall performance of the network. Extensive experiments conducted on the largest spatial-temporal forecasting benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms 14 alternative methods.

In recent years there has been significant progress in time series anomaly detection. However, after detecting an (perhaps tentative) anomaly, can we explain it? Such explanations would be useful to triage anomalies. For example, in an oil refinery, should we respond to an anomaly by dispatching a hydraulic engineer, or an intern to replace the battery on a sensor? There have been some parallel efforts to explain anomalies, however many proposed techniques produce explanations that are indirect, and often seem more complex than the anomaly they seek to explain. Our review of the literature/checklists/user-manuals used by frontline practitioners in various domains reveals an interesting near-universal commonality. Most practitioners discuss, explain and report anomalies in the following format: The anomaly would be like normal data A, if not for the corruption B. The reader will appreciate that is a type of counterfactual explanation. In this work we introduce a domain agnostic counterfactual explanation technique to produce explanations for time series anomalies. As we will show, our method can produce both visual and text-based explanations that are objectively correct, intuitive and in many circumstances, directly actionable.

Applications of neural networks like MLPs and ResNets in temporal data mining has led to improvements on the problem of time series classification. Recently, a new class of networks called Temporal Convolution Networks (TCNs) have been proposed for various time series tasks. Instead of time invariant convolutions they use temporally causal convolutions, this makes them more constrained than ResNets but surprisingly good at generalization. This raises an important question: How does a network with causal convolution solve these tasks when compared to a network with acausal convolutions? As the first attempt at answering these questions, we analyze different architectures through a lens of representational subspace similarity. We demonstrate that the evolution of input representations in the layers of TCNs is markedly different from ResNets and MLPs. We find that acausal networks are prone to form groupings of similar layers and TCNs on the other hand learn representations that are much more diverse throughout the network. Next, we study the convergence properties of internal layers across different architecture families and discover that the behaviour of layers inside Acausal network is more homogeneous when compared to TCNs. Our extensive empirical studies offer new insights into internal mechanisms of convolution networks in the domain of time series analysis and may assist practitioners gaining deeper understanding of each network.

Publishing and sharing data is crucial for the data mining community, allowing collaboration and driving open innovation. However, many researchers cannot release their data due to privacy regulations or fear of leaking confidential business information. To alleviate such issues, we propose the Time Series Synthesis Using the Matrix Profile (TSSUMP) method, where synthesized time series can be released in lieu of the original data. The TSSUMP method synthesizes time series by preserving similarity join information (i.e., Matrix Profile) while reducing the correlation between the synthesized and the original time series. As a result, neither the values for the individual time steps nor the local patterns (or shapes) from the original data can be recovered, yet the resulting data can be used for downstream tasks that data analysts are interested in. We concentrate on similarity joins because they are one of the most widely applied time series data mining routines across different data mining tasks. We test our method on a case study of ECG and gender masking prediction. In this case study, the gender information is not only removed from the synthesized time series, but the synthesized time series also preserves enough information from the original time series. As a result, unmodified data mining tools can obtain near-identical performance on the synthesized time series as on the original time series.

Time series data is ubiquitous across various domains such as finance, healthcare, and manufacturing, but their properties can vary significantly depending on the domain they originate from. The ability to perform Content-based Time Series Retrieval (CTSR) is crucial for identifying unknown time series examples. However, existing CTSR works typically focus on retrieving time series from a single domain database, which can be inadequate if the user does not know the source of the query time series. This limitation motivates us to investigate the CTSR problem in a scenario where the database contains time series from multiple domains. To facilitate this investigation, we introduce a CTSR benchmark dataset that comprises time series data from a variety of domains, such as motion, power demand, and traffic. This dataset is sourced from a publicly available time series classification dataset archive, making it easily accessible to researchers in the field. We compare several popular methods for modeling and retrieving time series data using this benchmark dataset. Additionally, we propose a novel distance learning model that outperforms the existing methods. Overall, our study highlights the importance of addressing the CTSR problem across multiple domains and provides a useful benchmark dataset for future research.

Time series classification is a widely studied problem in the field of time series data mining. Previous research has predominantly focused on scenarios where relevant or foreground subsequences have already been extracted, with each subsequence corresponding to a single label. However, real-world time series data often contain foreground subsequences that are intertwined with background subsequences. Successfully classifying these relevant subsequences requires not only distinguishing between different classes but also accurately identifying the foreground subsequences amidst the background. To address this challenge, we propose a novel subsequence classification method that represents each subsequence as an ego-network, providing crucial nearest neighbor information to the model. The ego-networks of all subsequences collectively form a time series subsequence graph, and we introduce an algorithm to efficiently construct this graph. Furthermore, we have demonstrated the significance of enforcing temporal consistency in the prediction of adjacent subsequences for the subsequence classification problem. To evaluate the effectiveness of our approach, we conducted experiments using 128 univariate and 30 multivariate time series datasets. The experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of our method compared to alternative approaches. Specifically, our method outperforms the baseline on 104 out of 158 datasets.

Time series discords are a useful primitive for time series anomaly detection, and the matrix profile is capable of capturing discord effectively. There exist many research efforts to improve the scalability of discord discovery with respect to the length of time series. However, there is surprisingly little work focused on reducing the time complexity of matrix profile computation associated with dimensionality of a multidimensional time series. In this work, we propose a sketch for discord mining among multi-dimensional time series. After an initial pre-processing of the sketch as fast as reading the data, the discord mining has runtime independent of the dimensionality of the original data. On several real world examples from water treatment and transportation, the proposed algorithm improves the throughput by at least an order of magnitude (50X) and only has minimal impact on the quality of the approximated solution. Additionally, the proposed method can handle the dynamic addition or deletion of dimensions inconsequential overhead. This allows a data analyst to consider “what-if” scenarios in real time while exploring the data.

Spatial-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) are promising in solving real-world spatial-temporal forecasting problems. Recognizing the inherent sequential relationship of spatial-temporal data, it is natural to explore the integration of boosting training mechanism to further enhance the performance of STGNNs. However, few studies have touched this research area. To bridge this gap, in this work, we propose spatial-temporal graph boosting networks, namely STGBN, which to the best of our knowledge is the first attempt to leverage gradient boosting for enhancing STGNNs. STGBN follows the general training procedure of conventional gradient boosting, but incorporates two distinctive designs to improve its efficiency in training on spatial-temporal graphs. Specifically, we design an incremental learning strategy that progressively includes spatial-temporal data into training. Additionally, we enforce an identical architecture for the base learner in all boosting iterations with each base learner inheriting from the one in the previous iteration. These designs facilitate rapid convergence of the base learner and expedite the overall training process. The base learner in STGBN is designed as a Transformer sandwich, which consists of two temporal Transformers on the top and bottom and a spatial Transformer in the middle. Structuring them in such a way helps the model capture long-range temporal dynamics, global spatial dependencies, and deep spatial-temporal interactions. We perform extensive spatial-temporal forecasting experiments on four spatial-temporal graph benchmarks. Promising results demonstrate the outstanding performance of STGBN against a wide range of state-of-the-art baseline models.

A Content-based Time Series Retrieval (CTSR) system is an information retrieval system for users to interact with time series emerged from multiple domains, such as finance, healthcare, and manufacturing. For example, users seeking to learn more about the source of a time series can submit the time series as a query to the CTSR system and retrieve a list of relevant time series with associated metadata. By analyzing the retrieved metadata, users can gather more information about the source of the time series. Because the CTSR system is required to work with time series data from diverse domains, it needs a high-capacity model to effectively measure the similarity between different time series. On top of that, the model within the CTSR system has to compute the similarity scores in an efficient manner as the users interact with the system in real-time. In this paper, we propose an effective and efficient CTSR model that outperforms alternative models, while still providing reasonable inference runtimes. To demonstrate the capability of the proposed method in solving business problems, we compare it against alternative models using our in-house transaction data. Our findings reveal that the proposed model is the most suitable solution compared to others for our transaction data problem.

A foundation model is a machine learning model trained on a large and diverse set of data, typically using self-supervised learning-based pre-training techniques, that can be adapted to various downstream tasks. However, current research on time series pre-training has predominantly focused on models trained exclusively on data from a single domain. As a result, these models possess domain-specific knowledge that may not be easily transferable to time series from other domains. In this paper, we aim to develop an effective time series foundation model by leveraging unlabeled samples from multiple domains. To achieve this, we repurposed the publicly available UCR Archive and evaluated four existing self-supervised learning-based pre-training methods, along with a novel method, on the datasets. We tested these methods using four popular neural network architectures for time series to understand how the pre-training methods interact with different network designs. Our experimental results show that pre-training improves downstream classification tasks by enhancing the convergence of the fine-tuning process. Furthermore, we found that the proposed pre-training method, when combined with the Transformer, outperforms the alternatives. The proposed method outperforms or achieves equal performance compared to the second best method in ~93% of downstream tasks.

Sequential tabular data is one of the most commonly used data types in real-world applications. Different from conventional tabular data, where rows in a table are independent, sequential tabular data contains rich contextual and sequential information, where some fields aredynamically changing over time and others arestatic. Existing transformer-based approaches analyzing sequential tabular data overlook the differences between dynamic and static fields by replicating and filling static fields into each record, and ignore temporal information between rows, which leads to three major disadvantages: (1) computational overhead, (2) artificially simplified data for masked language modeling pre-training task that may yield less meaningful representations, and (3) disregarding the temporal behavioral patterns implied by time intervals. In this work, we propose FATA-Trans, a model with two field transformers for modeling sequential tabular data, where each processes static and dynamic field information separately. FATA-Trans isfield - andtime -aware for sequential tabular data. Thefield -type embedding in the method enables FATA-Trans to capture differences between static and dynamic fields. Thetime -aware position embedding exploits both order and time interval information between rows, which helps the model detect underlying temporal behavior in a sequence. Our experiments on three benchmark datasets demonstrate that the learned representations from FATA-Trans consistently outperform state-of-the-art solutions in the downstream tasks. We also present visualization studies to highlight the insights captured by the learned representations, enhancing our understanding of the underlying data. Our codes are available at https://github.com/zdy93/FATA-Trans.

Internet services supported by large-scale distributed systems have become essential for our daily life. To ensure the stability and high quality of services, diverse metric data are constantly collected and managed in a time-series database to monitor the service status. However, when the number of metrics becomes massive, existing time-series databases are inefficient in handling high-rate data ingestion and queries hitting multiple metrics. Besides, they all lack the support of machine learning functions, which are crucial for sophisticated analysis of large-scale time series. In this paper, we present Lindorm TSDB, a distributed time-series database designed for handling monitoring metrics at scale. It sustains high write throughput and low query latency with massive active metrics. It also allows users to analyze data with anomaly detection and time series forecasting algorithms directly through SQL. Furthermore, Lindorm TSDB retains stable performance even during node scaling. We evaluate Lindorm TSDB under different data scales, and the results show that it outperforms two popular open-source time-series databases on both writing and query, while executing time-series machine learning tasks efficiently.

Node classification for graph-structured data aims to classify nodes whose labels are unknown. While studies on static graphs are prevalent, few studies have focused on dynamic graph node classification. Node classification on dynamic graphs is challenging for two reasons. First, the model needs to capture both structural and temporal information, particularly on dynamic graphs with a long history and require large receptive fields. Second, model scalability becomes a significant concern as the size of the dynamic graph increases. To address these problems, we propose the Time Augmented Dynamic Graph Neural Network (TADGNN) framework. TADGNN consists of two modules: 1) a time augmentation module that captures the temporal evolution of nodes across time structurally, creating a time-augmented spatio-temporal graph, and 2) an information propagation module that learns the dynamic representations for each node across time using the constructed time-augmented graph. We perform node classification experiments on four dynamic graph benchmarks. Experimental results demonstrate that TADGNN framework outperforms several static and dynamic state-of-the-art (SOTA) GNN models while demonstrating superior scalability. We also conduct theoretical and empirical analyses to validate the efficiency of the proposed method.

Using a newly developed model to upgrade a legacy model is a common practice in machine learning applications. After the upgrade, it is expected that the new model should outperform the legacy model in the regions of interest. However, it is observed that the new model often makes incorrect decisions on some instances where the legacy model still performs well. For a binary classification model (e.g., click-through-rate/CTR prediction model), such undesirable behavior could even occur in the low false positive region of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Finding the reasons behind this phenomenon can help business partners in an organization gain confidence in adopting the new model and help modelers to improve the new model in future releases. In this paper, we present the "Learning from Disagreement" framework to understand and improve the performance of a predictive model. Under the setting of a binary classification task, this proposed approach focuses on instances that lead to contradictory decisions between a pair of models at a given operating point. We perform feature importance analysis exclusively on these instances, gain insights into the pair of models without even knowing their inner operations, and offer actionable feedback for model improvement. We demonstrate the usefulness of this framework on two real-world event detection datasets.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are deep learning models designed specifically for graph data, and they typically rely on node features as the input to the first layer. When applying such a type of network on the graph without node features, one can extract simple graph-based node features (e.g., number of degrees) or learn the input node representations (i.e., embeddings) when training the network. While the latter approach, which trains node embeddings, more likely leads to better performance, the number of parameters associated with the embeddings grows linearly with the number of nodes. It is therefore impractical to train the input node embeddings together with GNNs within graphics processing unit (GPU) memory in an end-to-end fashion when dealing with industrial-scale graph data. Inspired by the embedding compression methods developed for natural language processing (NLP) tasks, we develop a node embedding compression method where each node is compactly represented with a bit vector instead of a floating-point vector. The parameters utilized in the compression method can be trained together with GNNs. We show that the proposed node embedding compression method achieves superior performance compared to the alternatives.

The matrix profile is an effective data mining tool that provides similarity join functionality for time series data. Since the introduction of the matrix profile five years ago, multiple efforts have been made to speed up the computation with approximate joins; however, the majority of these efforts only focus on self-joins. In this work, we show that it is possible to efficiently perform approximate inter-time series similarity joins with error bounded guarantees by creating a compact “dictionary” representation of time series. Using the dictionary representation instead of the original time series, we are able to improve the throughput of an anomaly mining system by at least 20X, with essentially no decrease in accuracy. As a side effect, the dictionaries also summarize the time series in a semantically meaningful way and can provide intuitive and actionable insights.

In-memory databases (IMDBs) have been the backbone of modern systems that demand high throughput and low latency. Because of the cost and volatility of DRAM, IMDBs become incompetent when dealing with workloads that require large data volume and strict durability. The emergence of non-volatile memory (NVM) brings new opportunities for IMDBs to tackle this situation. However, it is non-trivial to build an NVM-based IMDB, due to performance degradation, NVM programming complexity, and other challenges. In this paper, we present Tair-PMem , an NVM-based enterprise-strength database atop Redis, the most popular IMDB. Tair-PMem adopts a well-controlled data layout and a log-as-user-data design to mitigate NVM overheads. It eases the NVM programming complexity by providing a hybrid memory programming toolkit. To better leverage the enterprise-strength features and implementations from Redis, Tair-PMem retrofits it in a less intrusive way to achieve full compatibility and stability, while retaining its advanced features. With all of the above techniques elaborately implemented, Tair-PMem satisfies full durability, high throughput, and low latency at the same time. Tair-PMem has now been publicly available as a cloud service on Alibaba Cloud. To the best of our knowledge, Tair-PMem is the first cloud service that makes good use of the persistence capability of NVM.

Predicting metrics associated with entities' transnational behavior within payment processing networks is essential for system monitoring. Multivariate time series, aggregated from the past transaction history, can provide valuable insights for such prediction. The general multivariate time series prediction problem has been well studied and applied across several domains, including manufacturing, medical, and entomology. However, new domain-related challenges associated with the data such as concept drift and multi-modality have surfaced in addition to the real-time requirements of handling the payment transaction data at scale. In this work, we study the problem of multivariate time series prediction for estimating transaction metrics associated with entities in the payment transaction database. We propose a model with five unique components to estimate the transaction metrics from multi-modality data. Four of these components capture interaction, temporal, scale, and shape perspectives, and the fifth component fuses these perspectives together. We also propose a hybrid offline/online training scheme to address concept drift in the data and fulfill the real-time requirements. Combining the estimation model with a graphical user interface, the prototype transaction metric estimation system has demonstrated its potential benefit as a tool for improving a payment processing company's system monitoring capability.

Embeddings are one of the fundamental building blocks for data analysis tasks. Embeddings are already essential tools for large language models and image analysis, and their use is being extended to many other research domains. The generation of these distributed representations is often a data-and computation-expensive process; yet the holistic analysis and adjustment of them after they have been created is still a developing area. In this paper, we first propose a very general quantitatively measure for the presence of features in the embedding data based on if it can be learned. We then devise a method to remove or alleviate undesired features in the embedding while retaining the essential structure of the data. We use a Domain Adversarial Network (DAN) to generate a non-affine transformation, but we add constraints to ensure the essential structure of the embedding is preserved. Our empirical results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm significantly outperforms the state-of-art unsupervised algorithm on several data sets, including novel applications from the industry.

Digital payment volume has proliferated in recent years with the rapid growth of small businesses and online shops. When processing these digital transactions, recognizing each merchant’s real identity (i.e., business type) is vital to ensure the integrity of payment processing systems. Conventionally, this problem is formulated as a time series classification problem solely using the merchant transaction history. However, with the large scale of the data, and changing behaviors of merchants and consumers over time, it is extremely challenging to achieve satisfying performance from off-the-shelf classification methods. In this work, we approach this problem from a multi-modal learning perspective, where we use not only the merchant time series data but also the information of merchant-merchant relationship (i.e., affinity) to verify the self-reported business type (i.e., merchant category) of a given merchant. Specifically, we design two individual encoders, where one is responsible for encoding temporal information and the other is responsible for affinity information, and a mechanism to fuse the outputs of the two encoders to accomplish the identification task. Our experiments on real-world credit card transaction data between 71,668 merchants and 433,772,755 customers have demonstrated the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed model.

We present Magellan - a personalized travel recommendation system that is built entirely from card transaction data. The data logs contain extensive metadata for each transaction between a user and a merchant. We describe the procedure employed to extract travel itineraries from such transaction data. Unlike traditional approaches, we formulate the recommendation problem into two steps: (1) predict coarse granularity information such as location and category of the next merchant; and (2) provide fine granularity individual merchant recommendations based on the predicted location and category. The breakdown helps us build a scalable recommendation system. We propose a quadtree-based algorithm that provides an adaptive spatial resolution for the location classes in our first step while also reducing the class-imbalance across various location labels. Finally, we propose a novel neural architecture, SoLEmNet, that implicitly learns the inherent class label hierarchy and achieves a higher performance on our dataset compared to previous baselines.

We study the problem of making item recommendations to ephemeral groups, which comprise users with limited or no historical activities together. Existing studies target persistent groups with substantial activity history, while ephemeral groups lack historical interactions. To overcome group interaction sparsity, we propose data-driven regularization strategies to exploit both the preference covariance amongst users who are in the same group, as well as the contextual relevance of users' individual preferences to each group.

Learning node representations in graphs is important for many applications such as link prediction, node classification, and community detection. Existing graph representation learning methods primarily target static graphs while many real-world graphs evolve over time. Complex time-varying graph structures make it challenging to learn informative node representations over time.

Personalized Point of Interest (POI) recommendation that incorporates users' personal preferences is an important subject of research. However, challenges exist such as dealing with sparse rating data and spatial location factors. As one of the biggest card payment organizations in the United States, our company holds abundant card payment transaction records with numerous features.