Non-emergency municipal services, e.g., city 311 systems, have been widely implemented across cities in Canada and the United States to enhance residents' quality of life. These systems enable residents to report issues, e.g., noise complaints, missed garbage collection, and potholes, via phone calls, mobile applications, or webpages. However, residents are often given limited information about when their service requests will be addressed, which can reduce transparency, lower resident satisfaction, and increase the number of follow-up inquiries. Predicting the service time for municipal service requests is challenging due to several complex factors: (i) dynamic spatial-temporal correlations, (ii) underlying interactions among heterogeneous service request types, and (iii) high variation in service duration even within the same request category. In this work, we propose MuST2-Learn: a Multi-view Spatial-Temporal-Type Learning framework designed to address the aforementioned challenges by jointly modeling spatial, temporal, and service type dimensions. In detail, it incorporates an inter-type encoder to capture relationships among heterogeneous service request types and an intra-type variation encoder to model service time variation within homogeneous types. In addition, a spatiotemporal encoder is integrated to capture spatial and temporal correlations in each request type. The proposed framework is evaluated with extensive experiments using two real-world datasets. The results show that MuST2-Learn reduces mean absolute error by at least 32.5%, which outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

Granger causality, commonly used for inferring causal structures from time series data, has been adopted in widespread applications across various fields due to its intuitive explainability and high compatibility with emerging deep neural network prediction models. To alleviate challenges in better deciphering causal structures unambiguously from time series, the use of interventional data has become a practical approach. However, existing methods have yet to be explored in the context of imperfect interventions with unknown targets, which are more common and often more beneficial in a wide range of real-world applications. Additionally, the identifiability issues of Granger causality with unknown interventional targets in complex network models remain unsolved. Our work presents a theoretically-grounded method that infers Granger causal structure and identifies unknown targets by leveraging heterogeneous interventional time series data. We further illustrate that learning Granger causal structure and recovering interventional targets can mutually promote each other. Comparative experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms several robust baseline methods in learning Granger causal structure from interventional time series data.

To improve word representation learning, we propose a probabilistic prior which can be seamlessly integrated with word embedding models. Different from previous methods, word embedding is taken as a probabilistic generative model, and it enables us to impose a prior regularizing word representation learning. The proposed prior not only enhances the representation of embedding vectors but also improves the model's robustness and stability. The structure of the proposed prior is simple and effective, and it can be easily implemented and flexibly plugged in most existing word embedding models. Extensive experiments show the proposed method improves word representation on various tasks.

A new causal discovery method is introduced to solve the bivariate causal discovery problem. The proposed algorithm leverages the expressive power of flow-based models and tries to learn the complex relationship between two variables. Algorithms have been developed to infer the causal direction according to empirical perturbation errors obtained from an invertible flow-based function. Theoretical results as well as experimental studies are presented to verify the proposed approach. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that our proposed method could outperform baseline methods on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

Causal effect inference has many applications in data analysis and predictions, e.g., user behavior modeling, medical treatment effect prediction, etc. We introduce a new method to perform causal effect inference using flow-based latent-variable models. Our method leverages the expressive power of flow-based models and tries to recover the complex relationship between observations and unobserved confounders. A methodology has been developed to perform causal effect inference along with theoretical analysis. Experimental studies are presented to verify the proposed approach. Empirical results show that the proposed method outperforms baselines on different datasets.

This paper introduces a novel approach embedding flow-based models in hierarchical structures. The proposed model learns the representation of high-dimensional data via a message-passing scheme by integrating flow-based functions through variational inference. Meanwhile, our model produces a representation of the data using a lower dimension, thus overcoming the drawbacks of many flow-based models, usually requiring a high dimensional latent space involving many trivial variables. With the proposed aggregation nodes, our model provides a new approach for distribution modeling and numerical inference on datasets. Multiple experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show the benefits of our~proposed~method and potentially broad applications.

Causal-effect discovery plays an essential role in many disciplines of science and real-world applications. In this paper, we introduce a new causal discovery method to solve the classic problem of inferring the causal direction under a bivariate setting. In particular, our proposed method first leverages a flow model to estimate the joint probability density of the variables. Then we formulate a novel evaluation metric to infer the scores for each potential causal direction based on the variance of the conditional density estimation. By leveraging the flow-based conditional density estimation metric, our causal discovery approach alleviates the restrictive assumptions made by the conventional methods, such as assuming the linearity relationship between the two variables. Therefore, it could potentially be able to better capture the complex causal relationship among data in various problem domains that comes in arbitrary forms. We conduct extensive evaluations to compare our method with decent causal discovery approaches. Empirical results show that our method could promisingly outperform the baseline methods with noticeable margins on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

The thriving of deep models and generative models provides approaches to model high dimensional distributions. Generative adversarial networks (GANs) can approximate data distributions and generate data samples from the learned data manifolds as well. In this paper, we propose an approach to estimate the implicit likelihoods of GAN models. A stable inverse function of the generator can be learned with the help of a variance network of the generator. The local variance of the sample distribution can be approximated by the normalized distance in the latent space. Simulation studies and likelihood testing on real-world data sets validate the proposed algorithm, which outperforms several baseline methods in these tasks. The proposed method has been further applied to anomaly detection. Experiments show that the method can achieve state-of-the-art anomaly detection performance on real-world data sets.