Researchers have developed various visualization techniques, such as attribution maps, to understand which parts of an input contribute most to a model’s decision. However, existing methods often produce disparate results and may lack human-perceptual interpretability. In this work, we propose Relevance-IBA, a novel approach that combines the strengths of Information Bottleneck Attribution (IBA) and Layer-wise Relevance Propagation’s (LRP) method to estimate more accurate and human-perceptually interpretable attribution maps. Our method accentuates the contours and subtle details of the identified object, making the model’s decisions more intuitively understandable. Additionally, we introduce a segmentation-oriented evaluation technique, which assesses the capacity of interpretability methods by emphasizing the most important pixels within an object’s boundaries. We benchmark Relevance-IBA against various methodologies, including DeepLIFT, Integrated Gradients, Guided-BP, Guided-GradCAM, IBA, and InputIBA. Our results indicate that Relevance-IBA not only boosts attribution accuracy but also prioritizes human-perceptual clarity, making it a valuable tool for interpreting complex model behaviors.

Causal relationships have been utilized in almost all disciplines, and the research into causal discovery has attracted a lot of attention in the last few years. Traditionally, causal relationships are identified by making use of interventions or randomized controlled experiments. However, conducting such experiments is often expensive or even impossible due to cost or ethical concerns. Therefore, there has been an increasing interest in discovering causal relationships based on observational data, and in the past few decades, significant contributions have been made to this field by computer scientists.

In Disability Employment Services (DES), an emerging problem is to make job survival analysis stable in unseen environments without prior knowledge of these environments. Existing survival analysis methods cannot adequately solve this problem since they assume that distribution of unseen data is similar to that observed during training. However, this assumption can be violated in practice where unanticipated events such as COVID19 and inflation can change the work and life patterns of people with disability. Models trained before the COVID19 pandemic may make unreliable job survival predictions in COVID19 or inflation situations. It is also costly and time consuming to frequently re-train and deploy the models. This paper proposes a stable survival analysis method for the DES sector without requiring prior knowledge of deployment environments. Latent representations are learned to capture non-linear relationships between relevant features and job survival time. Two reweighting stages are developed to remove censoring and conditional spurious correlations between irrelevant features and the survival outcome. The case study of Australian workers with disability shows that our method can make stable risk predictions. It can also help workers with disability determine the most effective skills for improvement to increase their job survival time. Further evaluations with public datasets show the promising stable performance of our method in other applications.

Causal effect estimation from observational data is a challenging problem, especially with high dimensional data and in the presence of unobserved variables. The available data-driven methods for tackling the problem either provide an estimation of the bounds of a causal effect (i.e., nonunique estimation) or have low efficiency. The major hurdle for achieving high efficiency while trying to obtain unique and unbiased causal effect estimation is how to find a proper adjustment set for confounding control in a fast way, given the huge covariate space and considering unobserved variables. In this paper, we approach the problem as a local search task for finding valid adjustment sets in data. We establish the theorems to support the local search for adjustment sets, and we show that unique and unbiased estimation can be achieved from observational data even when there exist unobserved variables. We then propose a data-driven algorithm that is fast and consistent under mild assumptions. We also make use of a frequent pattern mining method to further speed up the search of minimal adjustment sets for causal effect estimation. Experiments conducted on extensive synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art criteria/estimators in both accuracy and time-efficiency.

In Disability Employment Service (DES), DES providers are confronted with "what-if" questions to assist workers with disability in deciding which skill should be improved to increase their job retention time. For instance, what would happen to the job retention time of a worker with disability if he improved his computer skill to an advanced level? This requires counterfactual inference to estimate the counterfactuals of the survival outcome, i.e., job retention time, under different skill improvement scenarios. While exiting survival analysis techniques are not designed for counterfactual problems, current counterfactual prediction methods are assumed to work with non-survival outcomes. In this paper, we propose the Counterfactual Survival Network (CSN), a representation learning based method for counterfactual survival prediction, where both confounding and censoring biases are removed based on latent representations. Since ground truth counterfactuals are unavailable, we develop a sample specific estimator to estimate counterfactuals for training samples. These estimated counterfactual outcomes are used as pseudo ground truth to train the counterfactual prediction model. We demonstrate the benefits of our method in decision support tasks with the case study of Australian workers and three public datasets. Results show that CSN can help Australian workers with disability increase their job retention time. Our method also shows its promising performance in other applications.

Causal relationships have been utilized in almost all disciplines, and the research into causal discovery has attracted a lot of attention in the last few years. Traditionally, causal relationships are identified by making use of interventions or randomized controlled experiments. However, conducting such experiments is often expensive or even impossible due to cost or ethical concerns. Therefore, there has been an increasing interest in discovering causal relationships based on observational data, and in the past few decades, significant contributions have been made to this field by computer scientists.

In Disability Employment Services (DES), an emerging problem is recommending to disabled workers the right skill to upgrade and the right upgrade level to achieve a maximum increase in their job retention time. This problem involves causal reasoning to estimate the individual causal effect (ICE) on the survival outcome, i.e., job retention time, to determine the most effective intervention for a worker. Existing methods are not suitable to solve our problem. They are mostly developed for non-causal or non-survival challenges, while methods for causal survival analysis are under-explored. This paper proposes a representation learning method for recommending personalized interventions that can generate a maximum increase in job retention time for workers with disability. In our method, observed covariates are disentangled into latent variables based on which confounding and censoring biases are eliminated, and the ICE prediction model is built. Since true ICE values are not directly measurable in observational data, a reverse engineering technique is developed to estimate ICE for training samples. These estimated ICE values are then used as the pseudo ground truth to train the prediction model. Experiments with a case study of Australian workers with disability show that by adopting personalized interventions recommended by our method, disabled workers can increase their job retention time by up to 2.8 months. Additional evaluations with public datasets also show the technical strengths of our method in other applications.

Abstract A large number of covariates can have a negative impact on the quality of causal effect estimation since confounding adjustment becomes unreliable when the number of covariates is large relative to the number of samples. Propensity score is a common way to deal with a large covariate set, but the accuracy of propensity score estimation (normally done by logistic regression) is also challenged by the large number of covariates. In this paper, we prove that a large covariate set can be reduced to a lower dimensional representation which captures the complete information for adjustment in causal effect estimation. The theoretical result enables effective data-driven algorithms for causal effect estimation. Supported by the result, we develop an algorithm that employs a supervised kernel dimension reduction method to learn a lower dimensional representation from the original covariate space, and then utilises nearest neighbour matching in the reduced covariate space to impute the counterfactual outcomes to avoid the large sized covariate set problem. The proposed algorithm is evaluated on two semisynthetic and three real-world datasets and the results show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

As a basic and effective tool for explanation, prediction and decision making, causal relationships have been utilized in almost all disciplines. Traditionally, causal relationships are identified by making use of interventions or randomized controlled experiments. However, conducting such experiments is often expensive or even impossible due to cost or ethical concerns. Therefore, there has been an increasing interest in discovering causal relationships based on observational data, and in the past few decades, significant contributions have been made to this field by computer scientists.

In Disability Employment Services (DES), a growing problem is recommending to disabled job seekers which skill should be upgraded and the best level for upgrading this skill to increase their employment potential most. This problem involves counterfactual reasoning to infer causal effect of factors on employment status to recommend the most effective intervention. Related methods cannot solve our problem adequately since they are developed for non-counterfactual challenges, for binary causal factors, or for randomized trials. In this paper, we present a causality-based method to tackle the problem. The method includes two stages where causal factors of employment status are first detected from data. We then combine a counterfactual reasoning framework with a machine learning approach to build an interpretable model for generating personalized recommendations. Experiments on both synthetic datasets and a real case study from a DES provider show consistent promising performance of improving employability of disabled job seekers. Results from the case study disclose effective factors and their best levels for intervention to increase employability. The most effective intervention varies among job seekers. Our model can separate job seekers by degree of employability increase. This is helpful for DES providers to allocate resources for employment assistance. Moreover, causal interpretability makes our recommendations actionable in DES business practice.

In the disability employment service, an emerging challenge is to recommend the skills whose improvement will increase the employment perspective most. The process of a skill being improved is called an intervention and different skills are called factors. The problem involves recommendation for outcome improvement, which requires estimating the improvement in the employment perspective, i.e., the outcome, driven by interventions on recommended factors. Currently, most recommendation systems deployed for the employment service rely on traditional recommendation models where the desired outcome instead of the degree of outcome improvement is the main goal for optimization. In this paper, we present a causality-based approach for recommending factors for intervention to achieve the largest improvement in the employment potential of disabled job seekers. It involves inferring the causal effect of interventions on the employment outcome to make recommendations for individuals. The causal interpretation of our model can justify given recommendations. We conduct a case study with our industry partner in the disability employment service. Results show that the recommended interventions could improve the employability of disabled job seekers. Experiments are also carried out with datasets in other domains to demonstrate the promise of our approach in different applications.

Outliers are objects that are significantly different from the others in the same dataset. They often contain insightful information for understanding the data and the data generation process. Traditional outlier detection methods can generally be divided into two categories: model-based and proximity-based approaches. A new type of model-based approach has recently been proposed to use the Bayesian network (BN) framework to discover more meaningful outliers with better interpretability. They yield very good detection result when anomalousness is mainly due to the violation of the dependency among variables. However, when anomalousness is caused by reasons other than dependency violation, BN-based methods produce very poor performance. To address this problem, we propose an ensemble outlier detection method that combines BN-based and proximity-based techniques to achieve more stable outlier detection results in different scenarios. To our best knowledge, the proposed method is the first to bring together the two major categories of outlier detection techniques. Comprehensive experiments have been done on both synthetic and real world datasets, and the results show that our method outperforms the baseline methods in most cases.

With more and more decisions being made by learnt algorithms from data, algorithmic discriminations have become a risk for civil rights. The detection of discrimination is a process of counterfactual reasoning. This paper proposes a general detection framework by combining a data mining method with a well established counterfactual reasoning framework, potential outcome model. The potential outcome model supports operational definitions of global and local discriminations and discriminations by combined factors, while a data mining method makes the detection efficient. The proposed method, instantiated by association rule mining with potential outcome model based causal effect estimation, is evaluated with four real world data sets and is compared with a Bayesian network (BN) based detection method. It is able to detect not only global discriminations that are detected by the BN based method, but also local and combined discriminations that the BN based method cannot find. The proposed method is efficient, and scales well with the data set size and the number of attributes.

Uncovering causal relationships in data is a major objective of data analytics. Currently, there is a need for scalable and automated methods for causal relationship exploration in data. Classification methods are fast and they could be practical substitutes for finding causal signals in data. However, classification methods are not designed for causal discovery and a classification method may find false causal signals and miss the true ones. In this paper, we develop a causal decision tree (CDT) where nodes have causal interpretations. Our method follows a well-established causal inference framework and makes use of a classic statistical test to establish the causal relationship between a predictor variable and the outcome variable. At the same time, by taking the advantages of normal decision trees, a CDT provides a compact graphical representation of the causal relationships, and the construction of a CDT is fast as a result of the divide and conquer strategy employed, making CDTs practical for representing and finding causal signals in large data sets. Experiment results demonstrate that CDTs can identify meaningful causal relationships and the CDT algorithm is scalable.

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are the most effective approach to causal discovery, but in many circumstances it is impossible to conduct RCTs. Therefore, observational studies based on passively observed data are widely accepted as an alternative to RCTs. However, in observational studies, prior knowledge is required to generate the hypotheses about the cause-effect relationships to be tested, and hence they can only be applied to problems with available domain knowledge and a handful of variables. In practice, many datasets are of high dimensionality, which leaves observational studies out of the opportunities for causal discovery from such a wealth of data sources. In another direction, many efficient data mining methods have been developed to identify associations among variables in large datasets. The problem is that causal relationships imply associations, but the reverse is not always true. However, we can see the synergy between the two paradigms here. Specifically, association rule mining can be used to deal with the high-dimensionality problem, whereas observational studies can be utilised to eliminate noncausal associations. In this article, we propose the concept of causal rules (CRs) and develop an algorithm for mining CRs in large datasets. We use the idea of retrospective cohort studies to detect CRs based on the results of association rule mining. Experiments with both synthetic and real-world datasets have demonstrated the effectiveness and efficiency of CR mining. In comparison with the commonly used causal discovery methods, the proposed approach generally is faster and has better or competitive performance in finding correct or sensible causes. It is also capable of finding a cause consisting of multiple variables—a feature that other causal discovery methods do not possess.

Discovering causal relationships in large databases of observational data is challenging. The pioneering work in this area was rooted in the theory of Bayesian network (BN) learning, which however, is a NP-complete problem. Hence several constraint-based algorithms have been developed to efficiently discover causations in large databases. These methods usually use the idea of BN learning, directly or indirectly, and are focused on causal relationships with single cause variables. In this paper, we propose an approach to mine causal rules in large databases of binary variables. Our method expands the scope of causality discovery to causal relationships with multiple cause variables, and we utilise partial association tests to exclude noncausal associations, to ensure the high reliability of discovered causal rules. Furthermore an efficient algorithm is designed for the tests in large databases. We assess the method with a set of real-world diagnostic data. The results show that our method can effectively discover interesting causal rules in large databases.