In marketing, optimizing subsidy allocation to maximize overall profits is of substantial economic importance. Prior research has employed treatment effect estimation techniques to identify subsidy-sensitive items and design corresponding allocation strategies. However, more accurate treatment effect estimations do not necessarily lead to better allocations, underscoring the critical influence of decision boundaries in decision-making. This paper argues that optimal allocation fundamentally depends on predicting the expected optimal subsidy, a challenge distinct from conventional treatment effect estimation or causal decision-making, which existing approaches fail to address. To fill this gap, we introduce a two-stage Counterfactual optimal subsidy Learning method with an Asymmetric reward (CoLA). In the first stage, we derive a coarse estimate of the expected subsidy threshold by exploiting order information and the conditional independence between expected and observed subsidies. In the second stage, we refine these estimates using an asymmetric loss function, leading to more robust predictions. Under practical budget constraints, we prioritize candidates based on their Sharpe ratios to determine the final subsidy allocation strategy. Experiments on three public datasets and an online A/B test show that our method achieves significant performance improvements, yielding the highest total profit and incremental leverage ratios.

Post-click conversion rate (CVR) prediction is a central task in recommender systems, yet selection bias creates a severe distributional gap between the clicked training samples and the entire inference space. To address selection bias, propensity-based methods such as inverse propensity scoring (IPS) and doubly robust (DR) have been adopted, which aim to estimate the unbiased learning objective from biased training samples. However, these approaches assume strictly positive propensities, implying every user-item pair has a nonzero probability of interaction. In practice, such positivity assumption maybe violated, for example, in food-delivery platforms, some restaurants located more than 10 kilometers away will be blocked for recommendation. In this study, we theoretically show that when such zero-propensity samples, termed extrapolation samples exist, both IPS and DR estimators become biased. To overcome this limitation, we propose ExtraDebias method, which enables debiased recommendation in both non-extrapolation and extrapolation samples. Specifically, we first train a propensity model to identify extrapolation samples with extremely small propensity estimates, then estimate their pseudo-label intervals, and derive an upper bound of the learning objective for extrapolation samples. By minimizing the derived upper bound, debiased learning on extrapolation samples is ensured, while unbiased learning on non-extrapolation samples is achieved by standard IPS. Experiments on four real-world offline datasets and one online A/B test show that ExtraDebias effectively minimizes prediction errors on extrapolation samples and achieves optimal performance.

Post-Click Conversion Rate (CVR) prediction aims to predict the probability of a conversion event occurring after a user clicks. Most CVR prediction methods use clicked events to train models and subsequently predict on both clicked and unclicked events, facing selection bias. To unbiasedly predict CVR, doubly robust (DR) learning incorporates propensity score reweighting and missing data error imputation, but with suboptimal performance under sparse click events. We theoretically demonstrate that existing DR methods face high or even unbounded bias, variance, and generalization error bound under small propensity scores from sparse click events. This motivates us to propose a new Batch-Adaptive DR (BADR) Learning method. In particular, we propose a BADR estimator, which adaptively adjusts the influence of each data batch during debiasing CVR prediction model training based on the propensity scores within that batch. We prove that the BADR estimator has bounded bias, variance, and generalization error bound, all of which are smaller than those of the DR estimator under small propensity scores, while maintaining asymptotic double robustness, i.e., achieving double robustness under a large sample size. Furthermore, we approximate the variance of the BADR estimator and derive a new batch-adaptive imputation model training loss compatible with the BADR estimator, which theoretically ensures further variance reduction during training. Our experiments on real-world datasets validate BADR’s effectiveness and rationality.

Federated recommendation aims to collect global knowledge by aggregating local models from massive devices, to provide recommendations while ensuring privacy. Current methods mainly leverage aggregation functions invented by federated vision community to aggregate parameters from similar clients, e.g., clustering aggregation. Despite considerable performance, we argue that it is suboptimal to apply them to federated recommendation directly. This is mainly reflected in the disparate model structures. Different from structured parameters like convolutional neural networks in federated vision, federated recommender models usually distinguish itself by employing one-to-one item embedding table. Such a discrepancy induces the challenging embedding skew issue, which continually updates the trained embeddings but ignores the non-trained ones during aggregation, thus failing to predict future items accurately. To this end, we propose a personalized Federated recommendation model with Composite Aggregation (FedCA), which not only aggregates similar clients to enhance trained embeddings but also aggregates complementary clients to update non-trained embeddings. Besides, we formulate the overall learning process into a unified optimization algorithm to jointly learn the similarity and complementarity. Extensive experiments on several real-world datasets substantiate the effectiveness of our proposed model. Our code is available at https://github.com/hongleizhang/FedCA .

Heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation from observational data poses significant challenges due to treatment selection bias. Existing methods address this bias by minimizing distribution discrepancies between treatment groups in latent space, focusing on global alignment. However, the fruitful aspect of local proximity, where similar units exhibit similar outcomes, is often overlooked. In this study, we propose Proximity-enhanced CounterFactual Regression (CFR-Pro) to exploit proximity for enhancing representation balancing within the HTE estimation context. Specifically, we introduce a pair-wise proximity regularizer based on optimal transport to incorporate the local proximity in discrepancy calculation. However, the curse of dimensionality renders the proximity measure and discrepancy estimation ineffective-exacerbated by limited data availability for HTE estimation. To handle this problem, we further develop an informative subspace projector, which trades off minimal distance precision for improved sample complexity. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CFR-Pro accurately matches units across different treatment groups, effectively mitigates treatment selection bias, and significantly outperforms competitors. Code is available at https://github.com/HowardZJU/CFR-Pro.

Imbalanced Time-Series Classification is a critical, yet challenging task across a spectrum of real-world applications. Previous oversampling and generative approaches primarily target the minority class and often rely on static decision boundaries or similarity-based heuristics. However, these methods overlook the underlying causal factors that govern the distinction between majority and minority classes, particularly in scenarios with ambiguous class boundaries. As a result, the generated samples may fail to enhance class separability, thereby limiting improvements in classification performance. To this end, we propose a CounterFactual Augmentation Minority Generation (CFAMG) method based on generative models that aims to discover the causal factors that determine different classes from a causality perspective. Specifically, our method first utilizes a disentangled classifier to distinguish between causal and non-causal factors. Next, we perform counterfactual intervention by replacing the causal factors of majority class samples with those from minority class samples, creating an intervened latent representation that reflects minority characteristics while preserving essential structures. Finally, the trained minority class decoder generates counterfactual minority samples that resemble real minority instances yet remain distinguishable from the original majority class. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both univariate and multivariate imbalanced time-series classification tasks. The code is published at https://github.com/WangLei-CQU/CFAMG.

Estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) from observational data plays a crucial role in areas such as e-commerce, healthcare, and economics. Existing studies mainly rely on the strong ignorability assumption that there are no unmeasured confounders, whose presence cannot be tested from observational data and can invalidate any causal conclusion. In contrast, data collected from randomized controlled trials (RCT) do not suffer from confounding, but are usually limited by a small sample size. In this paper, we propose a two-stage pretraining-finetuning (TSPF) framework using both large-scale observational data and small-scale RCT data to estimate the CATE in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In the first stage, a foundational representation of covariates is trained to estimate counterfactual outcomes through large-scale observational data. In the second stage, we propose to train an augmented representation of the covariates, which is concatenated to the foundational representation obtained in the first stage to adjust for the unmeasured confounding. To avoid overfitting caused by the small-scale RCT data in the second stage, we further propose a partial parameter initialization approach, rather than training a separate network. The superiority of our approach is validated on two public datasets with extensive experiments. The code is available at https://github.com/zhouchuanCN/KDD25-TSPF.

The post-click conversion rate (CVR) prediction task aims to predict the probability of a conversion after a click, which is essential in many fields. There are two widely-recognized challenges for CVR prediction: selection bias and data sparsity. Many previous methods focus on addressing selection bias by unbiasedly estimating the ideal loss based on the doubly robust estimator, which incorporates the error imputation model and propensity model to help CVR prediction model learning. However, they struggle with unreasonable knowledge transfer between the prediction model and imputation model and inflexible network structure design under sparse data. To this end, we introduce a novel principled adaptive structure learning approach, named Adap-SL, to adaptively learn the optimal network structure, adjust the number of activated (non-zero) parameters, and determine which knowledge needs to be transferred between the prediction model and the imputation model. Specifically, we start with an over-parameterized base network, where we adaptively extract partially overlapped subnetworks for the imputation model and the prediction model. Extensive experiments are conducted on three real-world recommendation datasets, demonstrating that our method consistently improves performance while requiring fewer parameters. The code is available at https://github.com/ChunyuanZheng/sigir25-sparse-sharing.

A significant challenge in air quality index (AQI) prediction is to accurately evaluate the potential outcomes after conducting interventions in pollutant factors such as industrial emissions for each enterprise. Existed methods often suffer from spurious correlations caused by unmeasured confounders and are lack of interpretability of the model, leading to sub-optimal prediction performance. This motivates us to propose a causal AQI prediction framework (CAP) that employs a structural causal model (SCM) to characterize the causal structural variability of various AQI factors for robust AQI prediction. Specifically, we employ the front-door adjustment to explicitly eliminate unmeasured confounders by intervening in industrial emissions from the target enterprise. Meanwhile, we take industrial emissions of neighboring enterprises into account when intervening in the target enterprise and simulate the dispersion of industrial emissions through a Gaussian plume model based on meteorological factors. Experiments on two real-world datasets validate the superior performance of our model on AQI prediction compared to the state-of-the-art baselines.

Recommendation systems are pivotal in improving user experience on various digital platforms. However, observational training data in recommendation systems introduce selection bias, which leads to a distributional discrepancy between training data and real-world scenarios, resulting in suboptimal performance. Current causal debiasing methods such as inverse propensity score and doubly robust rely on accurately estimated propensity scores, typically optimized through negative log-likelihood (NLL) minimization. However, recent studies have highlighted the limitations of this approach, as perfect NLL minimization may not adequately correct for selection bias. To address this issue, we propose Wasserstein Balancing Metric (WBM), a novel metric that measures and enhances the balancing capacity of propensity scores in causal debiasing methods by minimizing the Wasserstein discrepancy between reweighted populations. On the basis, we introduce IPS-WBM and DR-WBM, incorporating WBM as a regularizer in standard inverse propensity score and doubly robust estimators, which enhances causal balancing capacity without introducing additional bias. Extensive experiments on three real-world recommendation datasets demonstrate that our methods improve the causal balancing capability of learned propensities and enhance debiasing performance.

In database of recommender systems, users' ratings for most items are usually missing, resulting in selection bias when users selectively choose items to rate. To address this problem, propensity-based methods, e.g., inverse propensity scoring and doubly robust, have been widely studied and applied to missing rating prediction and post-click conversion rate prediction tasks. However, have we completely eliminated the selection bias? Under what missing data mechanism can previous studies completely eliminate the selection bias and lead to unbiased learning? In this paper, following the previous literature on statistics, we first formally define three missing data mechanisms, i.e., missing completely at random (MCAR), missing at random (MAR), and missing not at random (MNAR), and discuss the widespread prevalence of MNAR in recommender systems. Next, we theoretically reveal that the unbiasedness of previous propensity-based debiasing methods is valid only when data are MCAR or MAR, while it leads to biased predictions when data are MNAR. To tackle this research gap, we propose to disentangle user and item embeddings into the primary latent vector for rating prediction and the auxiliary latent vector for missing mechanism modeling. We prove the identifiablility results, and show that the proposed method can achieve unbiased learning under MNAR with imposed constraints. Extensive experiments are conducted on a semi-synthetic dataset and three real-world datasets, validating the effectiveness of our proposed method.

In the era of big data, decision-making in social networks may introduce bias due to interconnected individuals. For instance, in peer-to-peer loan platforms on the Web, considering an individual's attributes along with those of their interconnected neighbors, including sensitive attributes, is vital for loan approval or rejection downstream. Unfortunately, conventional fairness approaches often assume independent individuals, overlooking the impact of one person's sensitive attribute on others' decisions. To fill this gap, we introduce "Interference-aware Fairness" (IAF) by defining two forms of discrimination as Self-Fairness (SF) and Peer-Fairness (PF), leveraging advances in interference analysis within causal inference. Specifically, SF and PF causally capture and distinguish discrimination stemming from an individual's sensitive attributes (with fixed neighbors' sensitive attributes) and from neighbors' sensitive attributes (with fixed self's sensitive attributes), separately. Hence, a network-informed decision model is fair only when SF and PF are satisfied simultaneously, as interventions in individuals' sensitive attributes or those of their peers both yield equivalent outcomes. To achieve IAF, we develop a deep doubly robust framework to estimate and regularize SF and PF metrics for decision models. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets validate our proposed concepts and methods.

Ratings of a user to most items in recommender systems are usually missing not at random (MNAR), largely because users are free to choose which items to rate. To achieve unbiased learning of the prediction model under MNAR data, three typical solutions have been proposed, including error-imputation-based (EIB), inverse-propensity-scoring (IPS), and doubly robust (DR) methods. However, these methods ignore an alternative form of bias caused by the inconsistency between the observed ratings and the users' true preferences, also known as noisy feedback or outcome measurement errors (OME), e.g., due to public opinion or low-quality data collection process. In this work, we study intersectional threats to the unbiased learning of the prediction model from data MNAR and OME in the collected data. First, we design OME-EIB, OME-IPS, and OME-DR estimators, which largely extend the existing estimators to combat OME in real-world recommendation scenarios. Next, we theoretically prove the unbiasedness and generalization bound of the proposed estimators. We further propose an alternate denoising training approach to achieve unbiased learning of the prediction model under MNAR data with OME. Extensive experiments are conducted on three real-world datasets and one semi-synthetic dataset to show the effectiveness of our proposed approaches. The code is available at https://github.com/haoxuanli-pku/KDD24-OME-DR.

Recommender systems are designed to learn user preferences from observed feedback and comprise many fundamental tasks, such as rating prediction and post-click conversion rate (pCVR) prediction. However, the observed feedback usually suffer from two issues: selection bias and data sparsity, where biased and insufficient feedback seriously degrade the performance of recommender systems in terms of accuracy and ranking. Existing solutions for handling the issues, such as data imputation and inverse propensity score, are highly susceptible to additional trained imputation or propensity models. In this work, we propose a novel counterfactual contrastive learning framework for recommendation, named CounterCLR, to tackle the problem of non-random missing data by exploiting the advances in contrast learning. Specifically, the proposed CounterCLR employs a deep representation network, called CauNet, to infer non-random missing data in recommendations and perform user preference modeling by further introducing a self-supervised contrastive learning task. Our CounterCLR mitigates the selection bias problem without the need for additional models or estimators, while also enhancing the generalization ability in cases of sparse data. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of our method.

Effective personalized incentives can improve user experience and increase platform revenue, resulting in a win-win situation between users and e-commerce companies. Previous studies have used uplift modeling methods to estimate the conditional average treatment effects of users' incentives, and then placed the incentives by maximizing the sum of estimated treatment effects under a limited budget. However, some users will always buy whether incentives are given or not, and they will actively collect and use incentives if provided, named "Always Buyers". Identifying and predicting these "Always Buyers" and reducing incentive delivery to them can lead to a more rational incentive allocation. In this paper, we first divide users into five strata from an individual counterfactual perspective, and reveal the failure of previous uplift modeling methods to identify and predict the "Always Buyers". Then, we propose principled counterfactual identification and estimation methods and prove their unbiasedness. We further propose a counterfactual entire-space multi-task learning approach to accurately perform personalized incentive policy learning with a limited budget. We also theoretically derive a lower bound on the reward of the learned policy. Extensive experiments are conducted on three real-world datasets with two common incentive scenarios, and the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

Adverse drug reaction (ADR) prediction plays a crucial role in both health care and drug discovery for reducing patient mortality and enhancing drug safety. Recently, many studies have been devoted to effectively predict the drug-ADRs incidence rates. However, these methods either did not effectively utilize non-clinical data, i.e., physical, chemical, and biological information about the drug, or did little to establish a link between content-based and pure collaborative filtering during the training phase. In this paper, we first formulate the prediction of multi-label ADRs as a drug-ADR collaborative filtering problem, and to the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to provide extensive benchmark results of previous collaborative filtering methods on two large publicly available clinical datasets. Then, by exploiting the easy accessible drug characteristics from non-clinical data, we propose ADRNet, a generalized collaborative filtering framework combining clinical and non-clinical data for drug-ADR prediction. Specifically, ADRNet has a shallow collaborative filtering module and a deep drug representation module, which can exploit the high-dimensional drug descriptors to further guide the learning of low-dimensional ADR latent embeddings, which incorporates both the benefits of collaborative filtering and representation learning. Extensive experiments are conducted on two publicly available real-world drug-ADR clinical datasets and two non-clinical datasets to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed ADRNet. The code is available at https://github.com/haoxuanli-pku/ADRnet.

Data-driven recommender systems have demonstrated great success in various Web applications owing to the extraordinary ability of machine learning models to recognize patterns (ie correlation) from users' behaviors. However, they still suffer from several issues such as biases and unfairness due to spurious correlations. Considering the causal mechanism behind data can avoid the influences of such spurious correlations. In this light, embracing causal recommender modeling is an exciting and promising direction.

Recommender systems are seen as an effective tool to address information overload, but it is widely known that the presence of various biases makes direct training on large-scale observational data result in sub-optimal prediction performance. In contrast, unbiased ratings obtained from randomized controlled trials or A/B tests are considered to be the golden standard, but are costly and small in scale in reality. To exploit both types of data, recent works proposed to use unbiased ratings to correct the parameters of the propensity or imputation models trained on the biased dataset. However, the existing methods fail to obtain accurate predictions in the presence of unobserved confounding or model misspecification. In this paper, we propose a theoretically guaranteed model-agnostic balancing approach that can be applied to any existing debiasing method with the aim of combating unobserved confounding and model misspecification. The proposed approach makes full use of unbiased data by alternatively correcting model parameters learned with biased data, and adaptively learning balance coefficients of biased samples for further debiasing. Extensive real-world experiments are conducted along with the deployment of our proposal on four representative debiasing methods to demonstrate the effectiveness.

Post-click conversion rate (CVR) prediction is an essential task for discovering user interests and increasing platform revenues in a range of industrial applications. One of the most challenging problems of this task is the existence of severe selection bias caused by the inherent self-selection behavior of users and the item selection process of systems. Currently, doubly robust (DR) learning approaches achieve the state-of-the-art performance for debiasing CVR prediction. However, in this paper, by theoretically analyzing the bias, variance and generalization bounds of DR methods, we find that existing DR approaches may have poor generalization caused by inaccurate estimation of propensity scores and imputation errors, which often occur in practice. Motivated by such analysis, we propose a generalized learning framework that not only unifies existing DR methods, but also provides a valuable opportunity to develop a series of new debiasing techniques to accommodate different application scenarios. Based on the framework, we propose two new DR methods, namely DR-BIAS and DR-MSE. DR-BIAS directly controls the bias of DR loss, while DR-MSE balances the bias and variance flexibly, which achieves better generalization performance. In addition, we propose a novel tri-level joint learning optimization method for DR-MSE in CVR prediction, and an efficient training algorithm correspondingly. We conduct extensive experiments on both real-world and semi-synthetic datasets, which validate the effectiveness of our proposed methods.