Out-of-Distribution (OOD) extrapolation, where test data feature values extend beyond the training range, poses significant challenges in machine learning. While existing solutions often sacrifice interpretability, resulting in limited applicability in high-stakes applications where interpretability is a a critical requirement. In this paper, we propose Delta-GAM, an interpretable Generalized Additive Model (GAM) that achieves robust extrapolation in OOD scenarios. Our method jointly learns (1) feature-target relationships and (2) functional adaptations for extrapolating beyond the training distribution by reformulating GAM fitting as a second-order interaction problem between features and their distributional offsets. We theoretically show that smooth GAM shape functions induce an approximately low-rank structure in these interactions, enabling efficient decomposition via a specialized neural network. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate Delta-GAM's superior performance in OOD extrapolation tasks while preserving model interpretability, bridging a key gap in trustworthy machine learning.

Interpretable models are crucial in many high-stakes decision-making applications. In this paper, we focus on learning a decision rule list for binary and multi-class classification. Different from rule set learning problems, learning an optimal rule list involves not only learning a set of rules, but also their orders. In addition, many existing algorithms rely on rule pre-mining to handle large-scale high-dimensional data, which leads to suboptimal rule list model and degrades its generalization accuracy and interpretablity. In this paper, we learn a rule list from the sequence submodular perspective. We consider the rule list as a sequence and define the cover set for each rule. Then we formulate a sequence function which combines both model complexity and classification accuracy. Based on its appealing sequence submodular property, we propose a general distorted greedy insert algorithm under Minorization-Maximization (MM) framework, which gradually inserts rules with highest inserting gain to the rule list. The rule generation process is treated as a subproblem, allowing our method to learn the rule list through a unified framework which avoids rule pre-mining. We further provide a theoretical lower bound of our greedy insert algorithm in rule list learning. Experimental results show that our algorithm achieves better accuracy and interpretability than the state-of-the-art rule learning methods, and in particular it scales well on large-scale datasets, especially on high-dimensional data.

In causal inference, estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) is critical for identifying how different subgroups respond to interventions, with broad applications in fields such as precision medicine and personalized advertising. Although HTE estimation methods aim to improve accuracy, how to provide explicit subgroup descriptions remains unclear, hindering data interpretation and strategic intervention management. In this paper, we propose CURLS, a novel rule learning method leveraging HTE, which can effectively describe subgroups with significant treatment effects. Specifically, we frame causal rule learning as a discrete optimization problem, finely balancing treatment effect with variance and considering the rule interpretability. We design an iterative procedure based on the minorize-maximization algorithm and solve a submodular lower bound as an approximation for the original. Quantitative experiments and qualitative case studies verify that compared with state-of-the-art methods, CURLS can find subgroups where the estimated and true effects are 16.1% and 13.8% higher and the variance is 12.0% smaller, while maintaining similar or better estimation accuracy and rule interpretability. Code is available at https://osf.io/zwp2k/.

Electric load forecasting is an indispensable component of electric power system planning and management. Inaccurate load forecasting may lead to the threat of outages or a waste of energy. Accurate electric load forecasting is challenging when there is limited data or even no data, such as load forecasting in holiday, or under extreme weather conditions. As high-stakes decision-making usually follows after load forecasting, model interpretability is crucial for the adoption of forecasting models. In this paper, we propose an interactive GAM which is not only interpretable but also can incorporate specific domain knowledge in electric power industry for improved performance. This boosting-based GAM leverages piecewise linear functions and can be learned through our efficient algorithm. In both public benchmark and electricity datasets, our interactive GAM outperforms current state-of-the-art methods and demonstrates good generalization ability in the cases of extreme weather events. We launched a user-friendly web-based tool based on interactive GAM and already incorporated it into our eForecaster product, a unified AI platform for electricity forecasting.

Time series analysis is ubiquitous and important in various areas, such as Artificial Intelligence for IT Operations (AIOps) in cloud computing, AI-powered Business Intelligence (BI) in E-commerce, Artificial Intelligence of Things (AIoT), etc. In real-world scenarios, time series data often exhibit complex patterns with trend, seasonality, outlier, and noise. In addition, as more time series data are collected and stored, how to handle the huge amount of data efficiently is crucial in many applications. We note that these significant challenges exist in various tasks like forecasting, anomaly detection, and fault cause localization. Therefore, how to design effective and efficient time series models for different tasks, which are robust to address the aforementioned challenging patterns and noise in real-world scenarios, is of great theoretical and practical interests. In this tutorial, we provide a comprehensive and organized tutorial on the state-of-the-art algorithms of robust time series analysis, ranging from traditional statistical methods to the most recent deep learning based methods. We will not only introduce the principle of time series algorithms, but also provide insights into how to apply them effectively in practical real-world industrial applications. Specifically, we organize the tutorial in a bottom-up framework. We first present preliminaries from different disciplines including robust statistics, signal processing, optimization, and deep learning. Then, we identify and discuss those most-frequently processing blocks in robust time series analysis, including periodicity detection, trend filtering, seasonal-trend decomposition, and time series similarity. Lastly, we discuss recent advances in multiple time series tasks including forecasting, anomaly detection, fault cause localization, and autoscaling, as well as practical lessons of large-scale time series applications from an industrial perspective.