Due to the non-stationarity of time series, the distribution shift problem largely hinders the performance of time series forecasting. Existing solutions either rely on using certain statistics to specify the shift, or developing specific mechanisms for certain network architectures. However, the former would fail for the unknown shift beyond simple statistics, while the latter has limited compatibility on different forecasting models. To overcome these problems, we first propose a decoupled formulation for time series forecasting, with no reliance on fixed statistics and no restriction on forecasting architectures. This formulation regards the removing-shift procedure as a special transformation between a raw distribution and a desired target distribution and separates it from the forecasting. Such a formulation is further formalized into a bi-level optimization problem, to enable the joint learning of the transformation (outer loop) and forecasting (inner loop). Moreover, the special requirements of expressiveness and bi-direction for the transformation motivate us to propose instance normalization flow (IN-Flow), a novel invertible network for time series transformation. Different from the classic ''normalizing flow'' models, IN-Flow does not aim for normalizing input to the prior distribution (e.g., Gaussian distribution) for generation, but creatively transforms time series distribution by stacking normalization layers and flow-based invertible networks, which is thus named ''normalization'' flow. Finally, we have conducted extensive experiments on both synthetic data and real-world data, which demonstrate the superiority of our method.

Tabular data is foundational to predictive modeling in various crucial industries, including healthcare, finance, retail, sustainability, etc. Despite the progress made in specialized models, there is an increasing demand for universal models that can transfer knowledge, generalize from limited data, and follow human instructions. These are challenges that current tabular deep learning approaches have not fully tackled. Here we introduce Generative Tabular Learning (GTL), a novel framework that integrates the advanced functionalities of large language models (LLMs)-such as prompt-based zero-shot generalization and in-context learning-into tabular deep learning. GTL capitalizes on the pre-training of LLMs on diverse tabular data, enhancing their understanding of domain-specific knowledge, numerical sequences, and statistical dependencies critical for accurate predictions. Our empirical study spans 384 public datasets, rigorously analyzing GTL's convergence and scaling behaviors and assessing the impact of varied data templates. The GTL-enhanced LLaMA-2 model demonstrates superior zero-shot and in-context learning capabilities across numerous classification and regression tasks. Notably, it achieves this without fine-tuning, outperforming traditional methods and rivaling state-of-the-art models like GPT-4 in certain cases. Through GTL, we not only foster a deeper integration of LLMs' sophisticated abilities into tabular data comprehension and application but also offer a new training resource and a test bed for LLMs to enhance their ability to comprehend tabular data. To facilitate reproducible research, we release our code, data, and model checkpoints at https://github.com/microsoft/Industrial-Foundation-Models.

Wind is one kind of high-efficient, environmentally-friendly, and cost-effective energy source. Wind power, as one of the largest renewable energy in the world, has been playing a more and more important role in supplying electricity. Though growing dramatically in recent years, the amount of generated wind power can be directly or latently affected by multiple uncertain factors, such as wind speed, wind direction, temperatures, and so on. More importantly, there exist very complicated dependencies of the generated power on the latent composition of these multiple time-evolving variables, which are always ignored by existing works and thus largely hinder the prediction performances. To this end, we propose DEWP , a novel D eep E xpansion learning for W ind P ower forecasting framework to carefully model the complicated dependencies with adequate expressiveness. DEWP starts with a stack-by-stack architecture, where each stack is composed of (i) a variable expansion block that makes use of convolutional layers to capture dependencies among multiple variables; (ii) a time expansion block that applies Fourier series and backcast/forecast mechanism to learn temporal dependencies in sequential patterns. These two tailored blocks expand raw inputs into different latent feature spaces which can model different levels of dependencies of time-evolving sequential data. Moreover, we propose an inference block corresponding for each stack, which applies multi-head self-attentions to acquire attentive features and maps expanded latent representations into generated wind power. In addition, to make DEWP more expressive in handling deep neural architectures, we adapt doubly residue learning to process stack-by-stack outputs. Accurate wind power forecasting (WPF) is then better achieved through fine-grained outputs by continuously removing stack residues and accumulating useful stack forecasts. Finally, we present extensive experiments in the real-world WPF application on two datasets from two different turbines, in order to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Unsupervised Anomaly Detection (UAD) is a key data mining problem owing to its wide real-world applications. Due to the complete absence of supervision signals, UAD methods rely on implicit assumptions about anomalous patterns (e.g., scattered/sparsely/densely clustered) to detect anomalies. However, real-world data are complex and vary significantly across different domains. No single assumption can describe such complexity and be valid in all scenarios. This is also confirmed by recent research that shows no UAD method is omnipotent [1]. Based on above observations, instead of searching for a magic universal winner assumption, we seek to design a general UAD Booster (UADB) that empowers any UAD models with adaptability to different data. This is a challenging task given the heterogeneous model structures and assumptions adopted by existing UAD methods. To achieve this, we dive deep into the UAD problem and find that compared to normal data, anomalies (i) lack clear structure/pattern in feature space, thus (ii) harder to learn by model without a suitable assumption, and finally, leads to (iii) high variance between different learners. In light of these findings, we propose to (i) distill the knowledge of the source UAD model to an imitation learner (booster) that holds no data assumption, then (ii) exploit the variance between them to perform automatic correction, and thus (iii) improve the booster over the original UAD model. We use a neural network as the booster for its strong expressive power as a universal approximator and ability to perform flexible posthoc tuning. Note that UADB is a model-agnostic framework that can enhance heterogeneous UAD models in a unified way. Extensive experiments on over 80 tabular datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of UADB. To facilitate further research, code, figures, and datasets are available at UADB’s Github repository1.

Irregularly sampled multivariate time series are ubiquitous in various fields, particularly in healthcare, and exhibit two key characteristics: intra-series irregularity and inter-series discrepancy. Intra-series irregularity refers to the fact that time-series signals are often recorded at irregular intervals, while inter-series discrepancy refers to the significant variability in sampling rates among diverse series. However, recent advances in irregular time series have primarily focused on addressing intra-series irregularity, overlooking the issue of inter-series discrepancy. To bridge this gap, we present Warpformer, a novel approach that fully considers these two characteristics. In a nutshell, Warpformer has several crucial designs, including a specific input representation that explicitly characterizes both intra-series irregularity and inter-series discrepancy, a warping module that adaptively unifies irregular time series in a given scale, and a customized attention module for representation learning. Additionally, we stack multiple warping and attention modules to learn at different scales, producing multi-scale representations that balance coarse-grained and fine-grained signals for downstream tasks. We conduct extensive experiments on widely used datasets and a new large-scale benchmark built from clinical databases. The results demonstrate the superiority of Warpformer over existing state-of-the-art approaches.

Energy markets enable matching supply and demand through inter- and intra-region electricity trading. Due to the interconnected nature of the energy markets, the supply-demand constraints in one region can impact prices in another connected region. To incorporate these spatiotemporal relationships, we propose a novel graph neural network architecture incorporating multidimensional time-series features to forecast price (node attribute) and energy flow (edge attribute) between regions simultaneously. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to combine node and edge level forecasting in energy markets. We show that our proposed approach has a mean absolute prediction percentage error of 12.8%, which significantly beats the state-of-the-art baseline techniques.

Modeling sequential patterns from data is at the core of various time series forecasting tasks. Deep learning models have greatly outperformed many traditional models, but these black-box models generally lack explainability in prediction and decision making. To reveal the underlying trend with understandable mathematical expressions, scientists and economists tend to use partial differential equations (PDEs) to explain the highly nonlinear dynamics of sequential patterns. However, it usually requires domain expert knowledge and a series of simplified assumptions, which is not always practical and can deviate from the ever-changing world. Is it possible to learn the differential relations from data dynamically to explain the time-evolving dynamics? In this work, we propose an learning framework that can automatically obtain interpretable PDE models from sequential data. Particularly, this framework is comprised of learnable differential blocks, named P-blocks, which is proved to be able to approximate any time-evolving complex continuous functions in theory. Moreover, to capture the dynamics shift, this framework introduces a meta-learning controller to dynamically optimize the hyper-parameters of a hybrid PDE model. Extensive experiments on times series forecasting of financial, engineering, and health data show that our model can provide valuable interpretability and achieve comparable performance to state-of-the-art models. From empirical studies, we find that learning a few differential operators may capture the major trend of sequential dynamics without massive computational complexity.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has largely influenced the world and our normal daily lives. To combat this pandemic efficiently, governments usually need to coordinate essential resources across multiple regions and adjust intervention polices at the right time, which all call for accurate and robust forecasting of future epidemic trends. However, designing such a forecasting system is non-trivial, since we need to handle all kinds of locations at different administrative levels, which include pretty different epidemic-evolving patterns. Moreover, there are dynamic and volatile correlations of pandemic conditions among these locations, which further enlarge the difficulty in forecasting. With these challenges in mind, we develop a novel spatial-temporal forecasting framework. First, to accommodate all kinds of locations at different administrative levels, we propose a unified hierarchical view, which mimics the aggregation procedure of pandemic statistics. Then, this view motivates us to facilitate joint learning across administrative levels and inspires us to design the cross-level consistency loss as an extra regularization to stabilize model training. Besides, to capture those dynamic and volatile spatial correlations, we design a customized spatial module with adaptive edge gates, which can both reinforce effective messages and disable irrelevant ones. We put this framework into production to help the battle against COVID-19 in the United States. A comprehensive online evaluation across three months demonstrates that our projections are the most competitive ones among all results produced by dozens of international group and even surpass the official ensemble in many cases. We also visualize our unique edge gates to understand the evolvement of spatial correlations and present intuitive case studies. Besides, we open source our implementation at https://github.com/dolphin-zs/HierST to facilitate future research towards better epidemic modeling.