Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are unique digital assets that play an increasingly important role in decentralized markets, supporting new forms of ownership, valuation, and exchange. Their inherently multimodal structure, which encompasses visual content, metadata, and trading history, has led to a growing academic interest in modeling NFT pricing and market behavior. However, existing research is limited by the lack of comprehensive datasets that unify these modalities with consistent formatting and longitudinal coverage. To address this gap, we introduce MultiNFT, a large-scale multimodal dataset comprising 50 curated profile picture (PFP) NFT collections, including 523,020 unique assets and 2.38 million transaction records from April 2021 to September 2025. MultiNFT integrates standardized images, structured metadata, and time-series trading data, along with rarity scores and aesthetic features, offering a unified foundation for multimodal learning and NFT analytics. Unlike prior datasets that focus on visual similarity or static snapshots, MultiNFT captures evolving valuation dynamics across market cycles and connects them to trait-level characteristics. We demonstrate the utility of the dataset through three case studies, including within-collection rarity-price analysis, visual feature clustering across collections, and quantifying feature contributions in a comprehensive pricing model. By bridging computer vision, behavioral modeling, and financial forecasting, MultiNFT supports a wide range of interdisciplinary research and practical use cases. The dataset is publicly available and is intended to promote reproducible experimentation and further exploration of the mechanisms driving value in digital asset ecosystems.

Quantifying the value of data within a machine learning workflow can play a pivotal role in making more strategic decisions in machine learning initiatives. The existing Shapley value based frameworks for data valuation in machine learning are computationally expensive as they require considerable amount of repeated training of the model to obtain the Shapley value. In this paper, we introduce an efficient data valuation framework EcoVal, to estimate the value of data for machine learning models in a fast and practical manner. Instead of directly working with individual data sample, we determine the value of a cluster of similar data points. This value is further propagated amongst all the member cluster points. We show that the overall value of the data can be determined by estimating the intrinsic and extrinsic value of each data. This is enabled by formulating the performance of a model as aproduction function, a concept which is popularly used to estimate the amount of output based on factors like labor and capital in a traditional free economic market. We provide a formal proof of our valuation technique and elucidate the principles and mechanisms that enable its accelerated performance. We demonstrate the real-world applicability of our method by showcasing its effectiveness for both in-distribution and out-of-sample data. This work addresses one of the core challenges of efficient data valuation at scale in machine learning models. The code is available at https://github.com/respai-lab/ecoval.

Uncertainty is an essential consideration for time series forecasting tasks. In this work, we focus on quantifying the uncertainty of traffic forecasting from a unified perspective. We develop a novel traffic forecasting framework, namely Deep Spatio-Temporal Uncertainty Quantification (DeepSTUQ), which can estimate both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Specifically, we first leverage a spatio-temporal model to model the complex spatio-temporal correlations of traffic data. Subsequently, two independent sub-neural networks maximizing the heterogeneous log-likelihood are developed to estimate aleatoric uncertainty. To estimate epistemic uncertainty, we combine the merits of variational inference and deep ensembling by integrating the Monte Carlo dropout and the Adaptive Weight Averaging re-training methods, respectively. Furthermore, to relax the Gaussianity assumption, mitigate overfitting, and improve horizon-wise uncertainty quantification performance, we define a new calibration method called Multi-horizon Conformal Calibration (MHCC). Finally, we provide a theoretical analysis of the proposed unified approach based on the PAC-Bayes theory. Extensive experiments are conducted on four public datasets, and the empirical results suggest that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of both point prediction and uncertainty quantification.

The automotive industry plays a critical role in the global economy, and particularly important is the expanding Chinese automobile market due to its immense scale and influence. However, existing automotive sector datasets are limited in their coverage, failing to adequately consider the growing demand for more and diverse variables. This paper aims to bridge this data gap by introducing a comprehensive dataset spanning the years from 2016 to 2022, encompassing sales data, online reviews, and a wealth of information related to the Chinese automotive industry. This dataset serves as a valuable resource, significantly expanding the available data. Its impact extends to various dimensions, including improving forecasting accuracy, expanding the scope of business applications, informing policy development and regulation, and advancing academic research within the automotive sector. To illustrate the dataset’s potential applications in both business and academic contexts, we present two application examples. Our developed dataset enhances our understanding of the Chinese automotive market and offers a valuable tool for researchers, policymakers, and industry stakeholders worldwide.

Exterior facelift has become an effective method for automakers to boost the consumers’ interest in an existing car model before it is redesigned. To support the automotive facelift design process, this study develops a novel computational framework – Generator, Evaluator, Optimiser (GEO) , which comprises three components: a StyleGAN2-based design generator that creates different facelift designs; a convolutional neural network (CNN) -based evaluator that assesses designs from the aesthetics perspective; and a recurrent neural network (RNN) -based decision optimiser that selects designs to maximise the predicted profit of the targeted car model over time. We validate the GEO framework in experiments with real-world datasets and describe some resulting managerial implications for automotive facelift. Our study makes both methodological and application contributions. First, the generator’s mapping network and projection methods are carefully tailored to facelift where only minor changes are performed without affecting the family signature of the automobile brands. Second, two evaluation metrics are proposed to assess the generated designs. Third, profit maximisation is taken into account in the design selection. From a high-level perspective, our study contributes to the recent use of machine learning and data mining in marketing and design studies. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that uses deep generative models for automotive regional design upgrading and that provides an end-to-end decision-support solution for automakers and designers.

There is a growing interest in product aesthetics analytics and design. However, the lack of available large-scale data that covers various variables and information is one of the biggest challenges faced by analysts and researchers. In this paper, we present our multidisciplinary initiative of developing a comprehensive automotive dataset from different online sources and formats. Specifically, the created dataset contains 1.4 million images from 899 car models and their corresponding model specifications and sales information over more than ten years in the UK market. Our work makes significant contributions to: (i) research and applications in the automotive industry; (ii) big data creation and sharing; (iii) database design; and (iv) data fusion. Apart from our motivation, technical details and data structure, we further present three simple examples to demonstrate how our data can be used in business research and applications.

In this paper we develop a novel neural network model for predicting implied volatility surface. Prior financial domain knowledge is taken into account. A new activation function that incorporates volatility smile is proposed, which is used for the hidden nodes that process the underlying asset price. In addition, financial conditions, such as the absence of arbitrage, the boundaries and the asymptotic slope, are embedded into the loss function. This is one of the very first studies which discuss a methodological framework that incorporates prior financial domain knowledge into neural network architecture design and model training. The proposed model outperforms the benchmarked models with the option data on the S&P 500 index over 20 years. More importantly, the domain knowledge is satisfied empirically, showing the model is consistent with the existing financial theories and conditions related to implied volatility surface.

Advertising options have been recently studied as a special type of guaranteed contracts in online advertising, which are an alternative sales mechanism to real-time auctions. An advertising option is a contract which gives its buyer a right but not obligation to enter into transactions to purchase page views or link clicks at one or multiple pre-specified prices in a specific future period. Different from typical guaranteed contracts, the option buyer pays a lower upfront fee but can have greater flexibility and more control of advertising. Many studies on advertising options so far have been restricted to the situations where the option payoff is determined by the underlying spot market price at a specific time point and the price evolution over time is assumed to be continuous. The former leads to a biased calculation of option payoff and the latter is invalid empirically for many online advertising slots. This paper addresses these two limitations by proposing a new advertising option pricing framework. First, the option payoff is calculated based on an average price over a specific future period. Therefore, the option becomes path-dependent. The average price is measured by the power mean, which contains several existing option payoff functions as its special cases. Second, jump-diffusion stochastic models are used to describe the movement of the underlying spot market price, which incorporate several important statistical properties including jumps and spikes, non-normality, and absence of autocorrelations. A general option pricing algorithm is obtained based on Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, an explicit pricing formula is derived for the case when the option payoff is based on the geometric mean. This pricing formula is also a generalized version of several other option pricing models discussed in related studies [1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6].

Displaying banner advertisements (in short, ads) on webpages has usually been discussed as an Internet economics topic where a publisher uses auction models to sell an online user's page view to advertisers and the one with the highest bid can have her ad displayed to the user. This is also called real-time bidding (RTB) and the ad displaying process ensures that the publisher's benefit is maximized or there is an equilibrium in ad auctions. However, the benefits of the other two stakeholders - the advertiser and the user - have been rarely discussed. In this paper, we propose a two-stage computational framework that selects a banner ad based on the optimized trade-offs among all stakeholders. The first stage is still auction based and the second stage re-ranks ads by considering the benefits of all stakeholders. Our metric variables are: the publisher's revenue, the advertiser's utility, the ad memorability, the ad click-through rate (CTR), the contextual relevance, and the visual saliency. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that optimizes trade-offs among all stakeholders in RTB by incorporating multimedia metrics. An algorithm is also proposed to determine the optimal weights of the metric variables. We use both ad auction datasets and multimedia datasets to validate the proposed framework. Our experimental results show that the publisher can significantly improve the other stakeholders' benefits by slightly reducing her revenue in the short-term. In the long run, advertisers and users will be more engaged, the increased demand of advertising and the increased supply of page views can then boost the publisher's revenue.

In sponsored search, advertisement (abbreviated ad) slots are usually sold by a search engine to an advertiser through an auction mechanism in which advertisers bid on keywords. In theory, auction mechanisms have many desirable economic properties. However, keyword auctions have a number of limitations including: the uncertainty in payment prices for advertisers; the volatility in the search engine’s revenue; and the weak loyalty between advertiser and search engine. In this article, we propose a special ad option that alleviates these problems. In our proposal, an advertiser can purchase an option from a search engine in advance by paying an upfront fee, known as the option price. The advertiser then has the right, but no obligation, to purchase among the prespecified set of keywords at the fixed cost-per-clicks (CPCs) for a specified number of clicks in a specified period of time. The proposed option is closely related to a special exotic option in finance that contains multiple underlying assets (multi-keyword) and is also multi-exercisable (multi-click). This novel structure has many benefits: advertisers can have reduced uncertainty in advertising; the search engine can improve the advertisers’ loyalty as well as obtain a stable and increased expected revenue over time. Since the proposed ad option can be implemented in conjunction with the existing keyword auctions, the option price and corresponding fixed CPCs must be set such that there is no arbitrage between the two markets. Option pricing methods are discussed and our experimental results validate the development. Compared to keyword auctions, a search engine can have an increased expected revenue by selling an ad option.

In this paper, we report the first empirical study and live test of the reserve price optimisation problem in the context of Real-Time Bidding (RTB) display advertising from an operational environment. A reserve price is the minimum that the auctioneer would accept from bidders in auctions, and in a second price auction it could potentially uplift the auctioneer's revenue by charging winners the reserve price instead of the second highest bids. As such it has been used for sponsored search and been well studied in that context. However, comparing with sponsored search and contextual advertising, this problem in the RTB context is less understood yet more critical for publishers because 1) bidders have to submit a bid for each individual impression, which mostly is associated with user data that is subject to change over time. This, coupled with practical constraints such as the budget, campaigns' life time, etc. makes the theoretical result from optimal auction theory not necessarily applicable and a further empirical study is required to confirm its optimality from the real-world system; 2) in RTB an advertiser is facing nearly unlimited supply and the auction is almost done in "last second", which encourages spending less on the high cost ad placements. This could imply the loss of bid volume over time if a correct reserve price is not in place. In this paper we empirically examine several commonly adopted algorithms for setting up a reserve price. We report our results of a large scale online experiment in a production platform. The results suggest the our proposed game theory based OneShot algorithm performed the best and the superiority is significant in most cases.

Personalization techniques have been widely adopted in many recommender systems. However, experiments on real-world datasets show that for some users in certain contexts, personalized recommendations do not necessarily perform better than recommendations that rely purely on popularity. Broadly, this can be interpreted by the fact that the parameters of a personalization model are usually estimated from sparse data; the resulting personalized prediction, despite of its low bias, is often volatile. In this paper, we study the problem further by investigating into the ranking of recommendation lists. From a risk management and portfolio retrieval perspective, there is no difference between the popularity-based and the personalized ranking as both of the recommendation outputs can be represented as the trade-off between expected relevance (reward) and associated uncertainty (risk). Through our analysis, we discover common scenarios and provide a technique to predict whether personalization will fail. Besides the theoretical understanding, our experimental results show that the resulting switch algorithm, which decides whether or not to personalize, outperforms the mainstream recommendation algorithms.