Change point detection aims to identify abrupt shifts occurring at multiple points within a data sequence. This task becomes particularly challenging in the online setting, where different types of change can occur, including shifts in both the marginal and joint distributions of the data. In this paper, we address these challenges by tracking the Riemannian geometry of correlation matrices, allowing Riemannian metrics to compute the geodesic distance as an accurate measure of correlation dynamics.

Uncertainty reasoning and quantification play a critical role in decision making across various domains, prompting increased attention from both academia and industry. As real-world applications become more complex and data-driven, effectively handling uncertainty becomes paramount for accurate and reliable decision making. This workshop focuses on the critical topics of uncertainty reasoning and quantification in decision making. It provides a platform for experts and researchers from diverse backgrounds to exchange ideas on cutting-edge techniques and challenges in this field. The interdisciplinary nature of uncertainty reasoning and quantification, spanning artificial intelligence, machine learning, statistics, risk analysis, and decision science, will be explored. The workshop aims to address the need for robust and interpretable methods for modeling and quantifying uncertainty, fostering reasoning decision-making in various domains. Participants will have the opportunity to share research findings and practical experiences, promoting collaboration and advancing decision-making practices under uncertainty.

The Out-of-Distribution (OOD) problem in graph-structured data is becoming increasingly important in various areas of research and applications, including social network recommendation [36], protein function detection[9, 21], etc. Furthermore, owing to the inherent multi-label properties of nodes, multi-label OOD detection remains more challenging than in multi-class scenarios. A lack of uncertainty modeling in multilabel classification methods prevents the separation of OOD nodes from in-distribution (ID) nodes. Existing uncertainty-based OOD detection methods on graphs are not applicable for multi-label scenarios because they are designed for multi-class settings. Therefore, node-level OOD detection on multi-label graphs becomes desirable but rarely touched. In this paper, we propose a novel Evidence-Based Out-of-Distribution Detection method on multi-label graphs. The evidence for multiple labels, which indicates the amount of support to suggest that a sample should be classified into a specific class, is predicted by Multi-Label Evidential Graph Neural Networks (ML-EGNNs). The joint belief is designed for multi-label opinions fusion by a comultiplication operator. Additionally, we introduce a Kernel-based Node Positive Evidence Estimation (KNPE) method to reduce errors in quantifying positive evidence. Experimental results prove both the effectiveness and efficiency of our model for multi-label OOD detection on 7 multi-label benchmarks.

Uncertainty reasoning and quantification play a critical role in decision making across various domains, prompting increased attention from both academia and industry. As real-world applications become more complex and data-driven, effectively handling uncertainty becomes paramount for accurate and reliable decision making. This workshop focuses on the critical topics of uncertainty reasoning and quantification in decision making. It provides a platform for experts and researchers from diverse backgrounds to exchange ideas on cutting-edge techniques and challenges in this field. The interdisciplinary nature of uncertainty reasoning and quantification, spanning artificial intelligence, machine learning, statistics, risk analysis, and decision science, will be explored. The workshop aims to address the need for robust and interpretable methods for modeling and quantifying uncertainty, fostering reasoning decision-making in various domains. Participants will have the opportunity to share research findings and practical experiences, promoting collaboration and advancing decision-making practices under uncertainty.

For example, in machine translation tasks, to achieve bidirectional translation between two languages, the source corpus is often used as the target corpus, which involves the training of two models with opposite directions. The question of which one can adapt most quickly to a domain shift is of significant importance in many fields. Specifically, consider an original distribution p that changes due to an unknown intervention, resulting in a modified distribution p*. In aligning p with p*, several factors can affect the adaptation rate, including the causal dependencies between variables in p. In real-life scenarios, however, we have to consider the fairness of the training process, and it is particularly crucial to involve a sensitive variable (bias) present between a cause and an effect variable. To explore this scenario, we examine a simple structural causal model (SCM) with a cause-bias-effect structure, where variable A acts as a sensitive variable between cause (X) and effect (Y). The two models respectively exhibit consistent and contrary cause-effect directions in the cause-bias-effect SCM. After conducting unknown interventions on variables within the SCM, we can simulate some kinds of domain shifts for analysis. We then compare the adaptation speeds of two models across four shift scenarios. Additionally, we prove the connection between the adaptation speeds of the two models across all interventions.

Uncertainty reasoning and quantification play a critical role in decision making across various domains, prompting increased attention from both academia and industry. As real-world applications become more complex and data-driven, effectively handling uncertainty becomes paramount for accurate and reliable decision making. This workshop focuses on the critical topics of uncertainty reasoning and quantification in decision making. It provides a platform for experts and researchers from diverse backgrounds to exchange ideas on cutting-edge techniques and challenges in this field. The interdisciplinary nature of uncertainty reasoning and quantification, spanning artificial intelligence, machine learning, statistics, risk analysis, and decision science, will be explored. The workshop aims to address the need for robust and interpretable methods for modeling and quantifying uncertainty, fostering reasoning decision-making in various domains. Participants will have the opportunity to share research findings and practical experiences, promoting collaboration and advancing decision-making practices under uncertainty.

Automated graph learning has drawn widespread research attention due to its great potential to reduce human efforts when dealing with graph data, among which hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is one of the mainstream directions and has made promising progress. However, how to obtain reliable and trustworthy prediction results with automated graph neural networks (GNN) is still quite underexplored. To this end, we investigate automated GNN calibration by marrying uncertainty estimation to the HPO problem. Specifically, we propose a hyperparameter uncertainty-induced graph convolutional network (HyperU-GCN) with a bilevel formulation, where the upper-level problem explicitly reasons uncertainties by developing a probabilistic hypernetworks through a variational Bayesian lens, while the lower-level problem learns how the GCN weights respond to a hyperparameter distribution. By squeezing model uncertainty into the hyperparameter space, the proposed HyperU-GCN could achieve calibrated predictions in a similar way to Bayesian model averaging over hyperparameters. Extensive experimental results on six public datasets were provided in terms of node classification accuracy and expected calibration error (ECE), demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach compared with several state-of-the-art uncertainty-aware and calibrated GCN methods.

Recent semi-supervised learning algorithms have demonstrated greater success with higher overall performance due to the use of better-unlabeled data representations. Nonetheless, recent research suggests that the performance of the SSL algorithm can be degraded when the unlabeled set contains out-of-distribution examples (OODs). This work addresses the following research question: How do out-of-distribution (OOD) data adversely affect semi-supervised learning algorithms? To answer this question, we investigate the critical causes of OOD’s negative effect on SSL algorithms. In particular, we found that 1) certain kinds of OOD data instances that are close to the decision boundary have a more significant impact on performance than those that are further away, and 2) Batch Normalization (BN), a popular module, may degrade rather than improve performance when the unlabeled set contains OODs. To address these challenges, we developed a unified weighted robust SSL framework that can be easily extended to many existing SSL algorithms and improve their robustness against OODs. Having identified the limitations of low-order approximations in bi-level optimization, we developed an efficient bi-level optimization algorithm that could accommodate high-order approximations of the objective and could scale to a large number of inner optimization steps to learn a massive number of weight parameters. Furthermore, we conduct a theoretical analysis of the impact of faraway OODs in the BN step and propose a weighted batch normalization (WBN) procedure that uses the weights estimated by the bi-level optimization problem in the BN step. Additionally, we discuss the connection between our approach and low-order approximation techniques. Our extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed approach significantly enhances the robustness of four representative SSL algorithms against OODs compared to four state-of-the-art robust SSL strategies.

Non-stationary data stream mining aims to classify large scale online instances that emerge continuously. The most apparent challenge compared with the offline learning manner is the issue of consecutive emergence of new categories, when tackling non-static categorical distribution. Non-stationary stream settings often appear in real-world applications, e.g., online classification in E-commerce systems that involves the incoming productions, or the summary of news topics on social networks (Twitter). Ideally, a learning model should be able to learn novel concepts from labeled data (in new tasks) and reduce the abrupt degradation of model performance on the old concept (also named catastrophic forgetting problem). In this work, we focus on improving the performance of the stream mining approach under the constrained resources, where both the memory resource of old data and labeled new instances are limited/scarce. We propose a simple yet efficient resource-constrained framework CLEAR to facilitate previous challenges during the one-pass stream mining. Specifically, CLEAR focuses on creating and calibrating the class representation (the prototype) in the embedding space. We first apply the contrastive-prototype learning on large amount of unlabeled data, and generate the discriminative prototype for each class in the embedding space. Next, for updating on new tasks/categories, we propose a drift estimation strategy to calibrate/compensate for the drift of each class representation, which could reduce the knowledge forgetting without storing any previous data. We perform experiments on public datasets (e.g., CUB200, CIFAR100) under stream setting, our approach is consistently and clearly better than many state-of-the-art methods, along with both the memory and annotation restriction.

Inference of unknown opinions with uncertain, adversarial (e.g., incorrect or conflicting) evidence in large datasets is not a trivial task. Without proper handling, it can easily mislead decision making in data mining tasks. In this work, we propose a highly scalable opinion inference probabilistic model, namely Adversarial Collective Opinion Inference (Adv-COI), which provides a solution to infer unknown opinions with high scalability and robustness under the presence of uncertain, adversarial evidence by enhancing Collective Subjective Logic (CSL) which is developed by combining SL and Probabilistic Soft Logic (PSL). The key idea behind the Adv-COI is to learn a model of robust ways against uncertain, adversarial evidence which is formulated as a min-max problem. We validate the out-performance of the Adv-COI compared to baseline models and its competitive counterparts under possible adversarial attacks on the logic-rule based structured data and white and black box adversarial attacks under both clean and perturbed semi-synthetic and real-world datasets in three real world applications. The results show that the Adv-COI generates the lowest mean absolute error in the expected truth probability while producing the lowest running time among all.

Subjective Logic (SL) is one of well-known belief models that can explicitly deal with uncertain opinions and infer unknown opinions based on a rich set of operators of fusing multiple opinions. Due to high simplicity and applicability, SL has been substantially applied in a variety of decision making in the area of cybersecurity, opinion models, trust models, and/or social network analysis. However, SL and its variants have exposed limitations in predicting uncertain opinions in real-world dynamic network data mainly in three-fold: (1) a lack of scalability to deal with a large-scale network; (2) limited capability to handle heterogeneous topological and temporal dependencies among node-level opinions; and (3) a high sensitivity with conflicting evidence that may generate counterintuitive opinions derived from the evidence. In this work, we proposed a novel deep learning (DL)-based dynamic opinion inference model while node-level opinions are still formalized based on SL meaning that an opinion has a dimension of uncertainty in addition to belief and disbelief in a binomial opinion (i.e., agree or disagree). The proposed DL-based dynamic opinion inference model overcomes the above three limitations by considering the following: (1) state-of-the-art DL techniques, such as the Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) and the Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), for modeling the topological and temporal heterogeneous dependency information of a given dynamic network; (2) modeling conflicting opinions based on robust statistics; and (3) a highly scalable inference algorithm to predict dynamic, uncertain opinions in a linear computation time. We validated the outperformance of our proposed DL-based algorithm (i.e., GCN-GRU-opinion model) via extensive comparative performance analysis based on a real-world dataset.

Subjective Logic (SL) is one of well-known belief models that can explicitly deal with uncertain opinions and infer unknown opinions based on a rich set of operators of fusing multiple opinions. Due to high simplicity and applicability, SL has been popularly applied in a variety of decision making in the area of cybersecurity, opinion models, and/or trust / social network analysis. However, SL has been facing an issue of scalability to deal with a large-scale network data. In addition, SL has shown a bounded prediction accuracy due to its inherent parametric nature by treating heterogeneous data and network structure homogeneously based on the assumption of a Bayesian network. In this work, we take one step further to deal with uncertain opinions for unknown opinion inference. We propose a deep learning (DL)-based opinion inference model while node-level opinions are still formalized based on SL. The proposed DL-based opinion inference model handles node-level opinions explicitly in a large-scale network using graph convoluational network (GCN) and variational autoencoder (VAE) techniques. We adopted the GCN and VAE due to their powerful learning capabilities in dealing with a large-scale network data without parametric fusion operators and/or Bayesian network assumption. This work is the first that leverages the merits of both DL (i.e., GCN and VAE) and a belief model (i.e., SL) where each node level opinion is modeled by the formalism of SL while GCN and VAE are used to achieve non-parametric learning with low complexity. By mapping the node-level opinions modeled by the GCN to their equivalent Beta PDFs (probability density functions), we develop a network-driven VAE to maximize prediction accuracy of unknown opinions while significantly reducing algorithmic complexity. We validate our proposed DL-based algorithm using real-world datasets via extensive simulation experiments for comparative performance analysis.