In many environmental applications, recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are often used to model physical variables with long temporal dependencies. However, due to minibatch training, temporal relationships between training segments within the batch (intra-batch) as well as between batches (inter-batch) are not considered, which can lead to limited performance. Stateful RNNs aim to address this issue by passing hidden states between batches. Since Stateful RNNs ignore intra-batch temporal dependency, there exists a trade-off between training stability and capturing temporal dependency. In this paper, we provide a quantitative comparison of different Stateful RNN modeling strategies, and propose two strategies to enforce both intra- and inter-batch temporal dependency. First, we extend Stateful RNNs by defining a batch as a temporally ordered set of training segments, which enables intra-batch sharing of temporal information. While this approach significantly improves the performance, it leads to much larger training times due to highly sequential training. To address this issue, we further propose a new strategy which augments a training segment with an initial value of the target variable from the timestep right before the starting of the training segment. In other words, we provide an initial value of the target variable as additional input so that the network can focus on learning changes relative to that initial value. By using this strategy, samples can be passed in any order (mini-batch training) which significantly reduces the training time while maintaining the performance. In demonstrating the utility of our approach in hydrological modeling, we observe that the most significant gains in predictive accuracy occur when these methods are applied to state variables whose values change more slowly, such as soil water and snowpack, rather than continuously moving flux variables such as streamflow.

Accurate predictions of water temperature are the foundation for many decisions and regulations, with direct impacts on water quality, fishery yields, and power production. Building accurate broad-scale models for lake temperature prediction remains challenging in practice due to the variability in the data distribution across different lake systems monitored by static and time-series data. In this paper, to tackle the above challenges, we propose a novel machine learning based approach for integrating static and time-series data in deep recurrent models, which we call Invertibility-Aware-Long Short-Term Memory(IA-LSTM), and demonstrate its effectiveness in predicting lake temperature. Our proposed method integrates components of the Invertible Network and LSTM to better predict temperature profiles (forward modeling) and infer the static features (i.e., inverse modeling) that can eventually enhance the prediction when static variables are missing. We evaluate our method on predicting the temperature profile of 450 lakes in the Midwestern U.S. and report relative improvement of 4% to capture data heterogeneity and simultaneously outperform baseline predictions by 12% when static features are unavailable.

This paper proposes a physics-guided machine learning approach that combines machine learning models and physicsbased models to improve the prediction of water flow and temperature in river networks.We first build a recurrent graph network model to capture the interactions among multiple segments in the river network.Then we transfer knowledge from physics-based models to guide the learning of the machine learning model.We also propose a new loss function that balances the performance over different river segments.We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in predicting temperature and streamflow in a subset of the Delaware River Basin.In particular, the proposed method has brought a 33%/14% accuracy improvement over the state-of-the-art physics-based model and 24%/14% over traditional machine learning models (e.g., LSTM) in temperature/streamflow prediction using very sparse (0.1%) training data.The proposed method has also been shown to produce better performance when generalized to different seasons or river segments with different streamflow ranges.

We propose a nonlinear manifold learning technique based on deep convolutional autoencoders that is appropriate for model order reduction of physical systems in complex geometries. Convolutional neural networks have proven to be highly advantageous for compressing data arising from systems demonstrating a slow-decaying Kolmogorov $n$-width. However, these networks are restricted to data on structured meshes. Unstructured meshes are often required for performing analyses of real systems with complex geometry. Our custom graph convolution operators based on the available differential operators for a given spatial discretization effectively extend the application space of deep convolutional autoencoders to systems with arbitrarily complex geometry that are typically discretized using unstructured meshes. We propose sets of convolution operators based on the spatial derivative operators for the underlying spatial discretization, making the method particularly well suited to data arising from the solution of partial differential equations. We demonstrate the method using examples from heat transfer and fluid mechanics and show better than an order of magnitude improvement in accuracy over linear methods.