Matthias Jakobs

dblp:231/5456 · DBLP profile ↗
← Back
5ranked-venue papers in the field
1as first author
5since 2021 · last 2023
0000-0003-4607-8957ORCID · corroborated

Domains — venue-derived; a paper can count in several

Data Mining & Knowledge Discovery · 5 (1 first)
YearPublicationVenuePosition
2023 Explainable Adaptive Tree-based Model Selection for Time-Series Forecasting
abstract
Tree-based models have been successfully applied to a wide variety of tasks, including time series forecasting. They are increasingly in demand and widely accepted because of their comparatively high level of interpretability. However, many of them suffer from the overfitting problem, which limits their application in real-world decision-making. This problem becomes even more severe in online-forecasting settings where time series observations are incrementally acquired, and the distributions from which they are drawn may keep changing over time. In this context, we propose a novel method for the online selection of tree-based models using the TreeSHAP explainability method in the task of time series forecasting. We start with an arbitrary set of different tree-based models. Then, we outline a performance-based ranking with a coherent design to make TreeSHAP able to specialize the tree-based forecasters across different regions in the input time series. In this framework, adequate model selection is performed online, adaptively following drift detection in the time series. In addition, explainability is supported on three levels, namely online input importance, model selection, and model output explanation. An extensive empirical study on various real-world datasets demonstrates that our method achieves excellent or on-par results in comparison to the state-of-the-art approaches as well as several baselines.
Matthias Jakobs, Amal Saadallah
ICDM1
2023 Shapley Values with Uncertain Value Functions
Raoul Heese, Sascha Mücke, Matthias Jakobs, Thore Gerlach, Nico Piatkowski
IDA3
2023 An Empirical Evaluation of the Rashomon Effect in Explainable Machine Learning
Vanessa Toborek, Katharina Beckh, Matthias Jakobs, Christian Bauckhage, Pascal Welke
ECML/PKDD (3)4
2023 Online Deep Hybrid Ensemble Learning for Time Series Forecasting
Amal Saadallah, Matthias Jakobs
ECML/PKDD (5)2
2021 Explainable Online Deep Neural Network Selection Using Adaptive Saliency Maps for Time Series Forecasting
Amal Saadallah, Matthias Jakobs, Katharina Morik
ECML/PKDD (1)2