We propose the Burst-Induced Poisson Process (BPoP), a model designed to analyze time series data such as feeds or search queries. BPoP can distinguish between the slowly-varying regular activity of a stable audience and the bursty activity of a curious audience, often seen in viral threads. Our model consists of two hidden, interacting processes: a self-feeding process (SFP) that generates bursty behavior related to viral threads, and a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) with step function intensity that is influenced by the bursts from the SFP. The NHPP models the normal background behavior, driven solely by the overall popularity of the topic among the stable audience. Through extensive empirical work, we have demonstrated that our model fits and characterizes a large number of real datasets more effectively than state-of-the-art models. Most importantly, BPoP can quantify the stable audience of media channels over time, serving as a valuable indicator of their popularity.

We propose a robust recommender systems model which performs matrix completion and a ratings-wise uncertainty estimation jointly. Whilst the prediction module is purely based on an implicit low-rank assumption imposed via nuclear norm regularization, our loss function is augmented by an uncertainty estimation module which learns an anomaly score for each individual rating via a Graph Neural Network: data points deemed more anomalous by the GNN are downregulated in the loss function used to train the low-rank module. The whole model is trained in an end-to-end fashion, allowing the anomaly detection module to tap on the supervised information available in the form of ratings. Thus, our model’s predictors enjoy the favourable generalization properties that come with being chosen from small function space (i.e., low-rank matrices), whilst exhibiting the robustness to outliers and flexibility that comes with deep learning methods. Furthermore, the anomaly scores themselves contain valuable qualitative information. Experiments on various real-life datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms standard matrix completion and other baselines, confirming the usefulness of the anomaly detection module.

In this paper, we introduce a non-stationary and context-free Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) problem and a novel algorithm (which we refer to as BMAB) to solve it. The problem is context-free in the sense that no side information about users or items is needed. We work in a continuous-time setting where each timestamp corresponds to a visit by a user and a corresponding decision regarding recommendation. The main novelty is that we model the reward distribution as a consequence of variations in the intensity of the activity, and thereby we assist the exploration/exploitation dilemma by exploring the temporal dynamics of the audience. To achieve this, we assume that the recommendation procedure can be split into two different states: the loyal and the curious state. We identify the current state by modelling the events as a mixture of two Poisson processes, one for each of the possible states. We further assume that the loyal audience is associated with a single stationary reward distribution, but each bursty period comes with its own reward distribution. We test our algorithm and compare it to several baselines in two strands of experiments: synthetic data simulations and real-world datasets. The results demonstrate that BMAB achieves competitive results when compared to state-of-the-art methods.