Accurate workload forecasting is critical for efficient resource management in cloud computing systems, enabling effective scheduling and autoscaling. Despite recent advances with transformer-based forecasting models, challenges remain due to the non-stationary, nonlinear characteristics of workload time series and the long-term dependencies. In particular, inconsistent performance between long-term history and near-term forecasts hinders long-range predictions. This paper proposes a novel framework leveraging self-supervised multiscale representation learning to capture both long-term and near-term workload patterns. The long-term history is encoded through multiscale representations while the near-term observations are modeled via temporal flow fusion. These representations of different scales are fused using an attention mechanism and characterized with normalizing flows to handle non-Gaussian/non-linear distributions of time series. Extensive experiments on 9 benchmarks demonstrate superiority over existing methods.

Although the widespread use of AI systems in today's world is growing, many current AI systems are found vulnerable due to hidden bias and missing information, especially in the most commonly used forecasting system. In this work, we explore the robustness and explainability of AI-based forecasting systems. We provide an in-depth analysis of the underlying causality involved in the effect prediction task and further establish a causal graph based on treatment, adjustment variable, confounder, and outcome. Correspondingly, we design a causal interventional prediction system (CIPS) based on a variational autoencoder and fully conditional specification of multiple imputations. Extensive results demonstrate the superiority of our system over state-of-the-art methods and show remarkable versatility and extensibility in practice.

While intelligent virtual assistants like Siri, Alexa, and Google Assistant have become ubiquitous in modern life, they still face limitations in their ability to follow multi-step instructions and accomplish complex goals articulated in natural language. However, recent breakthroughs in large language models (LLMs) show promise for overcoming existing barriers by enhancing natural language processing and reasoning capabilities. Though promising, applying LLMs to create more advanced virtual assistants still faces challenges like ensuring robust performance and handling variability in real-world user commands. This paper proposes a novel LLM-based virtual assistant that can automatically perform multi-step operations within mobile apps based on high-level user requests. The system represents an advance in assistants by providing an end-to-end solution for parsing instructions, reasoning about goals, and executing actions. LLM-based Process Automation (LLMPA) has modules for decomposing instructions, generating descriptions, detecting interface elements, predicting next actions, and error checking. Experiments demonstrate the system completing complex mobile operation tasks in Alipay based on natural language instructions. This showcases how large language models can enable automated assistants to accomplish real-world tasks. The main contributions are the novel LLMPA architecture optimized for app process automation, the methodology for applying LLMs to mobile apps, and demonstrations of multi-step task completion in a real-world environment. Notably, this work represents the first real-world deployment and extensive evaluation of a large language model-based virtual assistant in a widely used mobile application with an enormous user base numbering in the hundreds of millions.

Causal effect estimation from networked observational data encounters notable challenges, primarily hidden confounders arising from network structure, or spillover effects that influence unit's outcomes based on neighboring treatment assignments. Existing graph neural network (GNN)-based methods have endeavored to address these challenges, utilizing the GNN's message-passing mechanism to capture hidden confounders or model spillover effects. However, they mainly focus on transductive causal effect learning on a single networked data, limiting their efficacy in inductive settings for real-world applications where networked data often originates from multiple environments influenced by potentially varying time or geographical regions. In light of this, we introduce the principle of invariance to the task of causal effect estimation on networked data, culminating in our Invariant Graph Learning (IGL) framework. Specifically, it first generates multiple networked data to simulate diverse environments from a given observational data. Then it further encourages the model to learn environment-invariant representations for confounders and spillover effects. Such a design enables the model to extrapolate beyond a single observed environment, thereby improving the performance of causal effect estimation in potential new environments. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrates the superiority of our approach.

As AI systems have obtained significant performance to be deployed widely in our daily lives and human society, people both enjoy the benefits brought by these technologies and suffer many social issues induced by these systems. To make AI systems good enough and trustworthy, plenty of researches have been done to build guidelines for trustworthy AI systems. Machine learning is one of the most important parts of AI systems, and representation learning is the fundamental technology in machine learning. How to make representation learning trustworthy in real-world application, e.g., cross domain scenarios, is very valuable and necessary for both machine learning and AI system fields. Inspired by the concepts in trustworthy AI, we proposed the first trustworthy representation learning across domains framework, which includes four concepts, i.e., robustness, privacy, fairness, and explainability, to give a comprehensive literature review on this research direction. Specifically, we first introduce the details of the proposed trustworthy framework for representation learning across domains. Second, we provide basic notions and comprehensively summarize existing methods for the trustworthy framework from four concepts. Finally, we conclude this survey with insights and discussions on future research directions.

Time-Series Forecasting based on Cumulative Data (TSFCD) is a crucial problem in decision-making across various industrial scenarios. However, existing time-series forecasting methods often overlook two important characteristics of cumulative data, namely monotonicity and irregularity, which limit their practical applicability. To address this limitation, we propose a principled approach called Monotonic neural Ordinary Differential Equation (MODE) within the framework of neural ordinary differential equations. By leveraging MODE, we are able to effectively capture and represent the monotonicity and irregularity in practical cumulative data. Through extensive experiments conducted in a bonus allocation scenario, we demonstrate that MODE outperforms state-of-the-art methods, showcasing its ability to handle both monotonicity and irregularity in cumulative data and delivering superior forecasting performance.

Detecting and diagnosing anomalies in observational data plays a crucial role in various real-world applications, such as e-commerce applet maintenance. Unsupervised machine learning techniques are typically employed for anomaly detection and diagnosis due to their convenience and independence from labeled data. Density estimation (DE), as one of the most widely used unsupervised machine learning techniques for anomaly detection, can be categorized into kernel density estimation (KDE)-based methods and normalizing flow (NF)-based methods. While KDE-based methods offer fast computation speed, they often ignore the complex manifold structure present in observational data. On the other hand, NF-based methods address the manifold issue but suffer from longer computation times. In this study, we propose a novel DE-based anomaly detection & diagnosis method using Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD), aiming to leverage the strengths of KDE and NF approaches. Firstly, we rigorously derive the DE capability of SVGD through mathematical analysis. Subsequently, we demonstrate the ability of the SVGD method to perform anomaly diagnosis based on input feature attribution. Finally, to validate the effectiveness of our approach, we conduct experiments using synthetic, benchmark, and industrial datasets. The results demonstrate the superior performance and practical applicability of our proposed method.

Predictive Autoscaling is used to forecast the workloads of servers and prepare the resources in advance to ensure service level objectives (SLOs) in dynamic cloud environments. However, in practice, its prediction task often suffers from performance degradation under abnormal traffics caused by external events (such as sales promotional activities and applications' re-configurations), for which a common solution is to re-train the model with data of a long historical period, but at the expense of high computational and storage costs. To better address this problem, we propose a replay-based continual learning method, i.e., Density-based Memory Selection and Hint-based Network Learning Model (DMSHM), using only a small part of the historical log to achieve accurate predictions. First, we discover the phenomenon of sample overlap when applying replay-based continual learning in prediction tasks. In order to surmount this challenge and effectively integrate new sample distribution, we propose a density-based sample selection strategy that utilizes kernel density estimation to calculate sample density as a reference to compute sample weight, and employs weight sampling to construct a new memory set. Then we implement hint-based network learning based on hint representation to optimize the parameters. Finally, we conduct experiments on public and industrial datasets to demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art continual learning methods in terms of memory capacity and prediction accuracy. Furthermore, we demonstrate remarkable practicability of DMSHM in real industrial applications.

The era of big data has witnessed an increasing availability of observational data from mobile and social networking, online advertising, web mining, healthcare, education, public policy, marketing campaigns, and so on, which facilitates the development of causal effect estimation. Although significant advances have been made to overcome the challenges in the academic area, such as missing counterfactual outcomes and selection bias, they only focus on source-specific and stationary observational data, which is unrealistic in most industrial applications. In this paper, we investigate a new industrial problem of causal effect estimation from incrementally available observational data and present three new evaluation criteria accordingly, including extensibility, adaptability, and accessibility. We propose a Continual Causal Effect Representation Learning method for estimating causal effects with observational data, which are incrementally available from non-stationary data distributions. Instead of having access to all seen observational data, our method only stores a limited subset of feature representations learned from previous data. Combining selective and balanced representation learning, feature representation distillation, and feature transformation, our method achieves the continual causal effect estimation for new data without compromising the estimation capability for original data. Extensive experiments demonstrate the significance of continual causal effect estimation and the effectiveness of our method.

The proliferation of observational data demands the development of statistical methods for causal inference. Many widely used causal inference methods are based on the propensity score. When estimating the propensity score, one essential question is which covariates should be included in the model. In this paper, we propose a deep adaptive variable selection based propensity score method (DAVSPS) by using representation learning and adaptive group LASSO. The key idea of DAFSPS is to combine the data-driven learning capability of representation learning and variable selection consistency of adaptive group LASSO to improve the estimation of the propensity score by selecting confounders and adjustment variables while removing instrumental and spurious variables. We also provide a detailed theoretical analysis to prove the variable selection consistency of DAVSPS. We evaluate the performance of our method on simulated data to demonstrate its superiority over state-of-the-art methods and apply it to real data.

Marketing campaigns are a set of strategic activities that can promote a business's goal. The effect prediction for marketing campaigns in a real industrial scenario is very complex and challenging due to the fact that prior knowledge is often learned from observation data, without any intervention for the marketing campaign. Furthermore, each subject is always under the interference of several marketing campaigns simultaneously. Therefore, we cannot easily parse and evaluate the effect of a single marketing campaign. To the best of our knowledge, there are currently no effective methodologies to solve such a problem, i.e., modeling an individual-level prediction task based on a hierarchical structure with multiple intertwined events. In this paper, we provide an in-depth analysis of the underlying parse tree-like structure involved in the effect prediction task and we further establish a Hierarchical Capsule Prediction Network (HapNet) for predicting the effects of marketing campaigns. Extensive results based on both the synthetic data and real data demonstrate the superiority of our model over the state-of-the-art methods and show remarkable practicability in real industrial applications.

The foremost challenge to causal inference with real-world data is to handle the imbalance in the covariates with respect to different treatment options, caused by treatment selection bias. To address this issue, recent literature has explored domain-invariant representation learning based on different domain divergence metrics (e.g., Wasserstein distance, maximum mean discrepancy, position-dependent metric, and domain overlap). In this paper, we reveal the weaknesses of these strategies, i.e., they lead to the loss of predictive information when enforcing the domain invariance; and the treatment effect estimation performance is unstable, which heavily relies on the characteristics of the domain distributions and the choice of domain divergence metrics. Motivated by information theory, we propose to learn the Infomax and Domain-Independent Representations to solve the above puzzles. Our method utilizes the mutual information between the global feature representations and individual feature representations, and the mutual information between feature representations and treatment assignment predictions, in order to maximally capture the common predictive information for both treatment and control groups. Moreover, our method filters out the influence of instrumental and irrelevant variables, and thus it effectively increases the predictive ability of potential outcomes. Experimental results on both the synthetic and real-world datasets show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on causal effect inference. Moreover, our method exhibits reliable prediction performances when facing data with different characteristics of data distributions, complicated variable types, and severe covariate imbalance.

Treatment effect estimation from observational data is a critical research topic across many domains. The foremost challenge in treatment effect estimation is how to capture hidden confounders. Recently, the growing availability of networked observational data offers a new opportunity to deal with the issue of hidden confounders. Unlike networked data in traditional graph learning tasks, such as node classification and link detection, the networked data under the causal inference problem has its particularity, i.e., imbalanced network structure. In this paper, we propose a Graph Infomax Adversarial Learning (GIAL) model for treatment effect estimation, which makes full use of the network structure to capture more information by recognizing the imbalance in network structure. We evaluate the performance of our GIAL model on two benchmark datasets, and the results demonstrate superiority over the state-of-the-art methods.

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy, and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing research direction owing to the large amount of available data and low budget requirement, compared with randomized controlled trials. Embraced with the rapidly developed machine learning area, various causal effect estimation methods for observational data have sprung up. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of causal inference methods under the potential outcome framework, one of the well-known causal inference frameworks. The methods are divided into two categories depending on whether they require all three assumptions of the potential outcome framework or not. For each category, both the traditional statistical methods and the recent machine learning enhanced methods are discussed and compared. The plausible applications of these methods are also presented, including the applications in advertising, recommendation, medicine, and so on. Moreover, the commonly used benchmark datasets as well as the open-source codes are also summarized, which facilitate researchers and practitioners to explore, evaluate and apply the causal inference methods.

The dramatically growing availability of observational data is being witnessed in various domains of science and technology, which facilitates the study of causal inference. However, estimating treatment effects from observational data is faced with two major challenges, missing counterfactual outcomes and treatment selection bias. Matching methods are among the mostly widely used and fundamental approaches to estimating treatment effects, but existing matching methods have poor performance when facing data with high dimensional and complicated variables. We propose a feature selection representation matching (FSRM) method based on deep representation learning and matching, which maps the original covariate space into a selective, nonlinear, and balanced representation space, and then conducts matching in the learned representation space. FSRM adopts deep feature selection to minimize the influence of irrelevant variables for estimating treatment effects and incorporates a regularizer based on the Wasserstein distance to learn balanced representations. We evaluate the performance of our FSRM method on three datasets, and the results demonstrate superiority over the state-of-the-art methods.

Causal inference has numerous real-world applications in many domains such as health care, marketing, political science and online advertising. Treatment effect estimation, a fundamental problem in causal inference, has been extensively studied in statistics for decades. However, traditional treatment effect estimation methods may not well handle large-scale and high-dimensional heterogeneous data. In recent years, an emerging research direction has attracted increasing attention in the broad artificial intelligence field, which combines the advantages of traditional treatment effect estimation approaches (e.g., matching estimators) and advanced representation learning approaches (e.g., deep neural networks). In this tutorial, we will introduce both traditional and state-of-the-art representation learning algorithms for treatment effect estimation. Background about causal inference, counterfactuals and matching estimators will be covered as well. We will also showcase promising applications of these methods in different application domains.