Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) endeavors to predict future observations given historical data, playing a crucial role in time series data management systems. With advancements in large language models (LLMs), recent studies employ textual prompt tuning to infuse the knowledge of LLMs into MTSF. However, the deployment of LLMs often suffers from low efficiency during the inference phase. To address this problem, we introduce TimeKD, an efficient MTSF framework that leverages the calibrated language models and privileged knowledge distillation. TimeKD aims to generate high-quality future representations from the proposed cross-modality teacher model and cultivate an effective student model. The cross-modality teacher model adopts calibrated language models (CLMs) with ground truth prompts, motivated by the paradigm of Learning Under Privileged Information (LUPI). In addition, we design a subtractive cross attention (SCA) mechanism to refine these representations. To cultivate an effective student model, we propose an innovative privileged knowledge distillation (PKD) mechanism including correlation and feature distillation. PKD enables the student to replicate the teacher's behavior while minimizing their output discrepancy. Extensive experiments on real data offer insight into the effectiveness, efficiency, and scalability of the proposed TimeKD.

Traffic prediction is a crucial component of data management systems, leveraging historical data to learn spatio-temporal dynamics for forecasting future traffic and enabling efficient decision-making and resource allocation. Despite efforts to develop increasingly complex architectures, existing traffic prediction models often struggle to generalize across diverse datasets and contexts, limiting their adaptability in real-world applications. In contrast to existing traffic prediction models, large language models (LLMs) progress mainly through parameter expansion and extensive pre-training while maintaining their fundamental structures. In this paper, we propose ST-LLM+, the graph enhanced spatio-temporal large language models for traffic prediction. Through incorporating a proximity-based adjacency matrix derived from the traffic network into the calibrated LLMs, ST-LLM+ captures complex spatio-temporal dependencies within the traffic network. The Partially Frozen Graph Attention (PFGA) module is designed to retain global dependencies learned during LLMs pre-training while modeling localized dependencies specific to the traffic domain. To reduce computational overhead, ST-LLM+ adopts the LoRA-augmented training strategy, allowing attention layers to be fine-tuned with fewer learnable parameters. Comprehensive experiments on real-world traffic datasets demonstrate that ST-LLM+ outperforms state-of-the-art models. In particular, ST-LLM+ also exhibits robust performance in both few-shot and zero-shot prediction scenarios. Additionally, our case study demonstrates that ST-LLM+ captures global and localized dependencies between stations, verifying its effectiveness for traffic prediction tasks.

Effective multi-intersection collaboration is pivotal for reinforcement-learning-based traffic signal control to alleviate congestion. Existing work mainly chooses neighboring intersections as collaborators. However, quite a lot of congestion, even some wide-range congestion, is caused by non-neighbors failing to collaborate. To address these issues, we propose to separate the collaborator selection as a second policy to be learned, concurrently being updated with the original signal-controlling policy. Specifically, the selection policy in real-time adaptively selects the best teammates according to phase- and intersection-level features. Empirical results on both synthetic and real-world datasets provide robust validation for the superiority of our approach, offering significant improvements over existing state-of-the-art methods. Code is available at https://github.com/bonaldli/CoSLight.

Traffic prediction, an essential component for intelligent transportation systems, endeavours to use historical data to foresee future traffic features at specific locations. Although existing traffic prediction models often emphasize developing complex neural network structures, their accuracy has not improved. Recently, large language models have shown outstanding capabilities in time series analysis. Differing from existing models, LLMs progress mainly through parameter expansion and extensive pretraining while maintaining their fundamental structures. Motivated by these developments, we propose a Spatial-Temporal Large Language Model (ST-LLM) for traffic prediction. In the ST-LLM, we define timesteps at each location as tokens and design a spatial-temporal embedding to learn the spatial location and global temporal patterns of these tokens. Additionally, we integrate these embeddings by a fusion convolution to each token for a unified spatial-temporal representation. Furthermore, we innovate a partially frozen attention strategy to adapt the LLM to capture global spatial-temporal dependencies for traffic prediction. Comprehensive experiments on real traffic datasets offer evidence that ST-LLM is a powerful spatial-temporal learner that outperforms state-of-the-art models. Notably, the ST-LLM also exhibits robust performance in both few-shot and zero-shot prediction scenarios. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/ChenxiLiu-HNU/ST-LLM.

This paper proposes to learn Multi-task, Multi-modal Direct Acyclic Graphs (MM-DAGs), which are commonly observed in complex systems, e.g., traffic, manufacturing, and weather systems, whose variables are multi-modal with scalars, vectors, and functions. This paper takes the traffic congestion analysis as a concrete case, where a traffic intersection is usually regarded as a DAG. In a road network of multiple intersections, different intersections can only have someoverlapping and distinct variables observed. For example, a signalized intersection has traffic light-related variables, whereas unsignalized ones do not. This encourages the multi-task design: with each DAG as a task, the MM-DAG tries to learn the multiple DAGs jointly so that their consensus and consistency are maximized. To this end, we innovatively propose a multi-modal regression for linear causal relationship description of different variables. Then we develop a novel Causality Difference (CD) measure and its differentiable approximator. Compared with existing SOTA measures, CD can penalize the causal structural difference among DAGs with distinct nodes and can better consider the uncertainty of causal orders. We rigidly prove our design's topological interpretation and consistency properties. We conduct thorough simulations and one case study to show the effectiveness of our MM-DAG. The code is available under https://github.com/Lantian72/MM-DAG.

Road network and trajectory representation learning are essential for traffic systems since the learned representation can be directly used in various downstream tasks (e.g., traffic speed inference, travel time estimation). However, most existing methods only contrast within the same scale, i.e., treating road network and trajectory separately, which ignores valuable inter-relations. In this paper, we aim to propose a unified framework that jointly learns the road network and trajectory representations end-to-end. We design domain-specific augmentations for road-road contrast and trajectory-trajectory contrast separately, i.e., road segment with its contextual neighbors and trajectory with its detour replaced and dropped alternatives, respectively. On top of that, we further introduce the road-trajectory cross-scale contrast to bridge the two scales by maximizing the total mutual information. Unlike the existing cross-scale contrastive learning methods on graphs that only contrast a graph and its belonging nodes, the contrast between road segment and trajectory is elaborately tailored via novel positive sampling and adaptive weighting strategies. We conduct prudent experiments based on two real-world datasets with four downstream tasks, demonstrating improved performance and effectiveness.