Due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, epidemic modeling is now experiencing a constantly growing interest from researchers of heterogeneous study fields. Indeed, due to such an increased attention, several software libraries and scientific tools have been developed to ease the access to epidemic modeling. However, only a handful of such resources were designed with the aim of providing a simple proxy for the study of the potential effects of public interventions (e.g., lockdown, testing, contact tracing). In this work, we introduce UTLDR, a framework that, overcoming such limitations, allows to generate "what if" epidemic scenarios incorporating several public interventions (and their combinations). UTLDR is designed to be easy to use and capable to leverage information provided by stratified populations of agents (e.g., age, gender, geographical allocation, and mobility patterns…). Moreover, the proposed framework is generic and not tailored for a specific epidemic phenomena: it aims to provide a qualitative support to understanding the effects of restrictions, rather than produce forecasts/explanation of specific data-driven phenomena.

Nowadays, a hot challenge for supermarket chains is to offer personalized services to their customers. Market basket prediction, i.e., supplying the customer a shopping list for the next purchase according to her current needs, is one of these services. Current approaches are not capable of capturing at the same time the different factors influencing the customer's decision process: co-occurrence, sequentuality, periodicity, and recurrency of the purchased items. To this aim, we define a pattern TemporalAnnotated Recurring Sequence (TARS) able to capture simultaneously and adaptively all these factors. We define the method to extract TARS and develop a predictor for next basket named TBP (TARS Based Predictor) that, on top of TARS, is able to understand the level of the customer's stocks and recommend the set of most necessary items. By adopting the TBP the supermarket chains could crop tailored suggestions for each individual customer which in turn could effectively speed up their shopping sessions. A deep experimentation shows that TARS are able to explain the customer purchase behavior, and that TBP outperforms the state-of-the-art competitors.

Nowadays the analysis of diffusive phenomena occurring on top of complex networks represents a hot topic in the Social Network Analysis playground. In order to support students, teachers, developers and researchers in this work we introduce a novel simulation framework, NDlib. NDlib is designed to be a multi-level ecosystem that can be fruitfully used by different user segments. Upon the diffusion library, we designed a simulation server that allows remote execution of experiments and an online visualization tool that abstract the programmatic interface and makes available the simulation platform to non-technicians.

Nowadays, a hot challenge for supermarket chains is to offer personalized services to their customers. Market basket prediction, i.e., supplying the customer a shopping list for the next purchase according to her current needs, is one of these services. Current approaches are not capable of capturing at the same time the different factors influencing the customer's decision process: co-occurrence, sequentuality, periodicity and recurrency of the purchased items. To this aim, we define a pattern named Temporal Annotated Recurring Sequence (TARS). We define the method to extract TARS and develop a predictor for next basket named TBP (TARS Based Predictor) that, on top of TARS, is able to understand the level of the customer's stocks and recommend the set of most necessary items. A deep experimentation shows that TARS can explain the customers' purchase behavior, and that TBP outperforms the state-of-the-art competitors.

Due to the growing availability of online social services, interactions between people became more and more easy to establish and track. Online social human activities generate digital footprints, that describe complex, rapidly evolving, dynamic networks. In such scenario one of the most challenging task to address involves the prediction of future interactions between couples of actors. In this study, we want to leverage networks dynamics and community structure to predict which are the future interactions more likely to appear. To this extent, we propose a supervised learning approach which exploit features computed by time-aware forecasts of topological measures calculated between pair of nodes belonging to the same community. Our experiments on real dynamic networks show that the designed analytical process is able to achieve interesting results.

Traditional approaches to user engagement analysis focus on individual users. In this paper we address user engagement analysis at the level of groups of users (social communities). From the entire Skype social network we extract communities by means of representative community detection methods each one providing node partitions having their own peculiarities. We then examine user engagement in the extracted communities putting into evidence clear relations between topological and geographic features of communities and their mean user engagement. In particular we show that user engagement can be to a great extent predicted from such features. Moreover, from the analysis it clearly emerges that the choice of community definition and granularity deeply affect the predictive performance.

In many real-world applications there is a need to monitor the distribution of a population across different classes, and to track changes in this distribution over time. As an example, an important task is to monitor the percentage of unemployed adults in a given region. When the membership of an individual in a class cannot be established deterministically, a typical solution is the classification task. However, in the above applications the final goal is not determining which class the individuals belong to, but estimating the prevalence of each class in the unlabeled data. This task is called quantification. Most of the work in the literature addressed the quantification problem considering data presented in conventional attribute format. Since the ever-growing availability of web and social media we have a flourish of network data representing a new important source of information and by using quantification network techniques we could quantify collective behavior, i.e., the number of users that are involved in certain type of activities, preferences, or behaviors. In this paper we exploit the homophily effect observed in many social networks in order to construct a quantifier for networked data. Our experiments show the effectiveness of the proposed approaches and the comparison with the existing state-of-the-art quantification methods shows that they are more accurate.

Community discovery in complex networks is the task of organizing a network’s structure by grouping together nodes related to each other. Traditional approaches are based on the assumption that there is a global-level organization in the network. However, in many scenarios, each node is the bearer of complex information and cannot be classified in disjoint clusters. The top-down global view of the partition approach is not designed for this. Here, we represent this complex information as multiple latent labels, and we postulate that edges in the networks are created among nodes carrying similar labels. The latent labels are the communities a node belongs to and we discover them with a simple local-first approach to community discovery. This is achieved by democratically letting each node vote for the communities it sees surrounding it in its limited view of the global system, its ego neighborhood, using a label propagation algorithm, assuming that each node is aware of the label it shares with each of its connections. The local communities are merged hierarchically, unveiling the modular organization of the network at the global level and identifying overlapping groups and groups of groups. We tested this intuition against the state-of-the-art overlapping community discovery and found that our new method advances in the chosen scenarios in the quality of the obtained communities. We perform a test on benchmark and on real-world networks, evaluating the quality of the community coverage by using the extracted communities to predict the metadata attached to the nodes, which we consider external information about the latent labels. We also provide an explanation about why real-world networks contain overlapping communities and how our logic is able to capture them. Finally, we show how our method is deterministic, is incremental, and has a limited time complexity, so that it can be used on real-world scale networks.

Finding talents, often among the people already hired, is an endemic challenge for organizations. The social networking revolution, with online tools like Linkedin, made possible to make explicit and accessible what we perceived, but not used, for thousands of years: the exact position and ranking of a person in a network of professional and personal connections. To search and mine where and how an employee is positioned on a global skill network will enable organizations to find unpredictable sources of knowledge, innovation and know-how. This data richness and hidden knowledge demands for a multidimensional and multiskill approach to the network ranking problem. Multidimensional networks are networks with multiple kinds of relations. To the best of our knowledge, no network-based ranking algorithm is able to handle multidimensional networks and multiple rankings over multiple attributes at the same time. In this paper we propose such an algorithm, whose aim is to address the node multi-ranking problem in multidimensional networks. We test our algorithm over several real world networks, extracted from DBLP and the Enron email corpus, and we show its usefulness in providing less trivial and more flexible rankings than the current state of the art algorithms.

In many applications there is a need to monitor how a population is distributed across different classes, and to track the changes in this distribution that derive from varying circumstances, an example such application is monitoring the percentage (or "prevalence") of unemployed people in a given region, or in a given age range, or at different time periods. When the membership of an individual in a class cannot be established deterministically, this monitoring activity requires classification. However, in the above applications the final goal is not determining which class each individual belongs to, but simply estimating the prevalence of each class in the unlabeled data. This task is called quantification. In a supervised learning framework we may estimate the distribution across the classes in a test set from a training set of labeled individuals. However, this may be sub optimal, since the distribution in the test set may be substantially different from that in the training set (a phenomenon called distribution drift). So far, quantification has mostly been addressed by learning a classifier optimized for individual classification and later adjusting the distribution it computes to compensate for its tendency to either under-or over-estimate the prevalence of the class. In this paper we propose instead to use a type of decision trees (quantification trees) optimized not for individual classification, but directly for quantification. Our experiments show that quantification trees are more accurate than existing state-of-the-art quantification methods, while retaining at the same time the simplicity and understandability of the decision tree framework.

The advent of social media have allowed us to build massive networks of weak ties: acquaintances and nonintimate ties we use all the time to spread information and thoughts. Conversely, strong ties are the people we really trust, people whose social circles tightly overlap with our own and, often, they are also the people most like us. Unfortunately, the majority of social media do not incorporate explicitly tie strength information in the creation and management of relationships, and treat all users the same: friend or stranger, with little or nothing in between. In the current work, we address the challenging issue of detecting on online social networks the strong and intimate ties from the huge mass of such mere social contacts. In order to do so, we propose a novel multidimensional definition of tie strength which exploits the existence of multiple online social links between two individuals. We test our definition on a multidimensional network constructed over users in Foursquare, Twitter and Facebook, analyzing the structural role of strong and weak links, and the correlations with the most common similarity measures.

Community discovery in complex networks is an interesting problem with a number of applications, especially in the knowledge extraction task in social and information networks. However, many large networks often lack a particular community organization at a global level. In these cases, traditional graph partitioning algorithms fail to let the latent knowledge embedded in modular structure emerge, because they impose a top-down global view of a network. We propose here a simple local-first approach to community discovery, able to unveil the modular organization of real complex networks. This is achieved by democratically letting each node vote for the communities it sees surrounding it in its limited view of the global system, i.e. its ego neighborhood, using a label propagation algorithm; finally, the local communities are merged into a global collection. We tested this intuition against the state-of-the-art overlapping and non-overlapping community discovery methods, and found that our new method clearly outperforms the others in the quality of the obtained communities, evaluated by using the extracted communities to predict the metadata about the nodes of several real world networks. We also show how our method is deterministic, fully incremental, and has a limited time complexity, so that it can be used on web-scale real networks.