Futures are contracts obligating the exchange of an asset at a predetermined date and price, notable for their high leverage (e.g., 5-fold) and liquidity (e.g., trillions of dollars) and, therefore, thrive in the Crypto market. Reinforcement learning (RL) has been widely applied in various quantitative tasks. However, most methods focus on the spot (e.g., stock) and could not be directly applied to the futures market with high leverage because of 2 key challenges. First, high leverage amplifies reward fluctuations, making RL training highly stochastic and difficult to converge. Second, prior works lacked self-awareness of capability boundaries, exposing them to the risk of significant capital loss when encountering previously unseen market state representations (e.g., during a black swan event like COVID-19). To tackle these challenges, we propose the eFficient and rIsk-aware eNsemble rEinforcement learning for Futures Trading (FineFT), a novel three-stage ensemble RL framework with stable training and proper risk management. In stage I, ensemble Q learners are selectively updated by ensemble temporal difference (TD) errors, i.e., TD errors across different learners, to improve convergence and performance. In stage II, we filter the Q-learners based on their profitabilities under different market dynamics and train variational autoencoders (VAEs) on market representations of each dynamic to identify the capability boundaries of the filtered learners. In stage III, we dynamically choose from the filtered ensemble and a conservative policy, guided by trained VAEs, to maintain profitability and mitigate risk with new market states. Through extensive experiments on crypto futures in a high-frequency trading environment with high fidelity and 5x leverage, we demonstrate that FineFT significantly outperforms 12 state-of-the-art baselines in 6 widely-used financial metrics, reducing risk by more than 40% while achieving superior profitability compared to the runner-up. Visualization of the selective update mechanism shows that different agents specialize in distinct market dynamics, and ablation studies certify routing with VAEs reduces maximum drawdown effectively, and selective update improves convergence and performance.

The value and copyright of training data are crucial in the artificial intelligence industry. Service platforms should protect data providers' legitimate rights and fairly reward them for their contributions. Shapley value, a potent tool for evaluating contributions, outperforms other methods in theory, but its computational overhead escalates exponentially with the number of data providers. Recent studies on Shapley values have proposed various approximation algorithms to address the computational complexity issues inherent in exact calculations. However, they need to retrain for each test sample, leading to intolerable costs. We propose Fast-DataShapley, a one-pass training framework that leverages the weighted least squares characterization of the Shapley value to train a reusable explainer model with real-time reasoning speed. Given new test samples, no retraining is required to calculate the Shapley values of the training data. Additionally, we propose three methods with theoretical guarantees to reduce training overhead from two aspects: the approximate calculation of the utility function and the reduction of the sample space complexity. We analyze time complexity to show the efficiency of our methods. The experimental evaluations on various image datasets demonstrate superior performance and efficiency compared to baselines. Specifically, the performance is improved to more than 2×, and the explainer's training speed can be increased by two orders of magnitude.

Financial trading is a crucial component of the markets, informed by a multimodal information landscape encompassing news, prices, and Kline charts, and encompasses diverse tasks such as quantitative trading and high-frequency trading with various assets. While advanced AI techniques like deep learning and reinforcement learning are extensively utilized in finance, their application in financial trading tasks often faces challenges due to inadequate handling of multimodal data and limited generalizability across various tasks. To address these challenges, we present FinAgent, a multimodal foundational agent with tool augmentation for financial trading. FinAgent's market intelligence module processes a diverse range of data-numerical, textual, and visual-to accurately analyze the financial market. Its unique dual-level reflection module not only enables rapid adaptation to market dynamics but also incorporates a diversified memory retrieval system, enhancing the agent's ability to learn from historical data and improve decision-making processes. The agent's emphasis on reasoning for actions fosters trust in its financial decisions. Moreover, FinAgent integrates established trading strategies and expert insights, ensuring that its trading approaches are both data-driven and rooted in sound financial principles. With comprehensive experiments on 6 financial datasets, including stocks and Crypto, FinAgent significantly outperforms 12 state-of-the-art baselines in terms of 6 financial metrics with over 36% average improvement on profit. Specifically, a 92.27% return (a 84.39% relative improvement) is achieved on one dataset. Notably, FinAgent is the first advanced multimodal foundation agent designed for financial trading tasks.

Learning representations purely from observations concerns the problem of learning a low-dimensional, compact representation which is beneficial to prediction models. Under the hypothesis that the intrinsic latent factors follow some casual generative models, we argue that by learning a causal representation, which is the minimal sufficient causes of the whole system, we can improve the robustness and generalization performance of machine learning models. In this paper, we develop a learning method to learn such representation from observational data by regularizing the learning procedure with mutual information measures, according to the hypothetical factored causal graph. We theoretically and empirically show that the models trained with the learned causal representations are more robust under adversarial attacks and distribution shifts compared with baselines.