Henryk Mustroph

dblp:295/3926 · DBLP profile ↗
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2ranked-venue papers in the field
1as first author
2since 2021 · last 2026
0009-0005-1946-1979ORCID · corroborated

Domains — venue-derived; a paper can count in several

Business Process & Enterprise Data · 2 (1 first)
YearPublicationVenuePosition
2026 Predicting Conformance Deviations and Their Positions in Future Event Sequences
Henryk Mustroph, Michel Kunkler, Stefanie Rinderle-Ma
CAiSE (2)1
2025 Probabilistic Suffix Prediction of Business Processes
abstract
Suffix prediction of business processes forecasts the remaining sequence of events until process completion. Current approaches focus on predicting the most likely suffix, representing a single scenario. However, when the future course of a process is highly uncertain and variable, a single scenario may have limited predictive value. To address this limitation, we propose probabilistic suffix prediction, a novel approach that returns a set of sampled suffixes. The method is based on an uncertainty-aware encoder-decoder LSTM combined with a Monte Carlo suffix sampling algorithm. We capture epistemic uncertainty via MC dropout and aleatoric uncertainty as learned loss attenuation. Comparisons with two other uncertainty-aware PPM approaches across four datasets demonstrate that our probabilistic suffix prediction approach achieves reasonable predictive performance while it allows estimating prediction intervals for multiple objectives within a single model.
Michel Kunkler, Henryk Mustroph, Stefanie Rinderle-Ma
ICPM2