Accurate Travel Time Estimation (TTE) is critical for ride-hailing platforms, where errors directly impact user experience and operational efficiency. While existing production systems excel at holistic route-level dependency modeling, they struggle to capture city-scale traffic dynamics and long-tail scenarios, leading to unreliable predictions in large urban networks. In this paper, we propose \model, a scalable and adaptive framework that synergistically integrates link-level modeling with industrial route-level TTE systems. Specifically, we propose a spatio-temporal external attention module to capture global traffic dynamic dependencies across million-scale road networks efficiently. Moreover, we construct a stabilized graph mixture-of-experts network to handle heterogeneous traffic patterns while maintaining inference efficiency. Furthermore, an asynchronous incremental learning strategy is tailored to enable real-time and stable adaptation to dynamic traffic distribution shifts. Experiments on real-world datasets validate MixTTE significantly reduces prediction errors compared to seven baselines. MixTTE has been deployed in DiDi, substantially improving the accuracy and stability of the TTE service.

In recent years, advancements in deep learning have spurred the development of numerous models for Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF). However, most existing approaches struggle to fully capture the complex and structured dependencies inherent in time series data. In this work, we identify and formally define three critical dependencies that are fundamental to forecasting accuracy: order dependency and semantic dependency along the temporal dimension, as well as cross-variate dependency across the feature dimension. These dependencies are often treated in isolation, and improper handling can introduce noise and degrade forecasting performance. To bridge this gap, we investigate the potential of State Space Models (SSMs) for LTSF and emphasize their inherent advantages in capturing these essential dependencies. Additionally, we empirically observe that excessive nonlinearity in conventional SSMs introduce redundancy when applied to semantically sparse time series data. Motivated by this insight, we propose SDE (Simplified and Disentangled Dependency Encoding), a novel framework designed to enhance the capability of SSMs for LTSF. Specifically, we first eliminate unnecessary nonlinearities in vanilla SSMs, thereby improving the suitability for time series forecasting. Building on this foundation, we introduce a disentangled encoding strategy, which empowers SSMs to efficiently model cross-variate dependencies while mitigating interference between the temporal and feature dimensions. Furthermore, we provide rigorous theoretical justifications to substantiate our design choices. Extensive experiments on nine real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that SDE-enhanced SSMs consistently outperform state-of-the-art time series forecasting models. Our code is available at https://github.com/YukinoAsuna/SAMBA.

Rapid urbanization has significantly escalated traffic congestion, underscoring the need for advanced congestion prediction services to bolster intelligent transportation systems.As one of the world's largest ride-hailing platforms, DiDi places great emphasis on the accuracy of congestion prediction to enhance the effectiveness and reliability of their real-time services, such as travel time estimation and route planning.Despite numerous efforts have been made on congestion prediction, most of them fall short in handling heterogeneous and dynamic spatio-temporal dependencies (e.g., periodic and non-periodic congestions), particularly in the presence of noisy and incomplete traffic data.In this paper, we introduce a Congestion Prediction Mixture-of-Experts, CP-MoE, to address the above challenges.We first propose a sparsely-gated Mixture of Adaptive Graph Learners (MAGLs) with congestion-aware inductive biases to improve the model capacity for efficiently capturing complex spatio-temporal dependencies in varying traffic scenarios.Then, we devise two specialized experts to help identify stable trends and periodic patterns within the traffic data, respectively.By cascading these experts with MAGLs, CP-MoE delivers congestion predictions in a more robust and interpretable manner.Furthermore, an ordinal regression strategy is adopted to facilitate effective * Corresponding author.

Travel Time Estimation (TTE) aims to accurately forecast the expected trip duration from an origin to a destination. As one of the world's largest ride-hailing platforms, DiDi answers billions of TTE queries per day. The quality of TTE directly decides the customer's experience and the effectiveness of passenger-to-driver matching. However, existing studies mainly regard TTE as a deterministic regression problem and focus on improving the prediction accuracy of a single label, which overlooks the travel time uncertainty induced by various dynamic contextual factors. To this end, in this paper, we propose a probabilistic framework, ProbTTE, for uncertainty-aware travel time prediction. Specifically, the framework first transforms the single-label regression task to a multi-class classification problem to estimate the implicit travel time distribution. Moreover, we propose an adaptive local label-smoothing scheme to capture the ordinal inter-class relationship among soft travel time labels. Furthermore, we construct a route-wise log-normal distribution regularizer to absorb prior knowledge from large-scale historical trip data. By explicitly considering the travel uncertainty, the proposed approach not only improves the TTE accuracy but also provides additional travel time information to benefit downstream tasks in ride-hailing. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of the proposed framework compared with state-of-the-art travel time prediction algorithms. In addition, ProbTTE has been deployed in production at DiDi in late 2022 to empower various order dispatching services, and improves passenger and driver experiences significantly.