Efficient road recovery is essential for people’s wellbeing and economic recovery. The three prefectures on the Pacific side of the Tohoku region (Fukushima, Miyagi, and Iwate), are relatively similar to the three prefectures (Shizuoka, Aichi, and Mie) in the Tokai region in terms of the topographical environment. The purpose of this study is to simulate the recovery of local roads in the Tokai region after the Nankai Trough earthquake, which is expected to occur in the near future based on data from the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake. We identified regional characteristics and other factors influencing road recovery from previous cluster analysis and GIS visualization of driving data from the Tohoku region in the six months following the 2011 earthquake. However, we found that the cluster parameters were too broad, so in this study, we re-clustered the coastal and inland areas and applied stepwise discriminant analysis to construct a road recovery prediction model that can help guide the recovery of municipal roads in the Tokai region after the expected Nankai Trough earthquake.

Post-disaster road recovery is important.