Predictive Maintenance applications are increasingly complex, with interactions between many components. Black-box models are popular approaches based on deep-learning techniques due to their predictive accuracy. This paper proposes a neural-symbolic architecture that uses an online rule-learning algorithm to explain when the black-box model predicts failures. The proposed system solves two problems in parallel: (i) anomaly detection and (ii) explanation of the anomaly. For the first problem, we use an unsupervised state-of-the-art autoencoder. For the second problem, we train a rule learning system that learns a mapping from the input features to the autoencoder’s reconstruction error. Both systems run online and in parallel. The autoencoder signals an alarm for the examples with a reconstruction error that exceeds a threshold. The causes of the signal alarm are hard for humans to understand because they result from a non-linear combination of sensor data. The rule that triggers that example describes the relationship between the input features and the autoencoder’s reconstruction error. The rule explains the failure signal by indicating which sensors contribute to the alarm and allowing the identification of the component involved in the failure. The system can present global explanations for the black box model and local explanations for why the black box model predicts a failure. We evaluate the proposed system in a real-world case study of Metro do Porto and provide explanations that illustrate its benefits.

The field of Explainable Predictive Maintenance (PM) is concerned with developing methods that can clarify how AI systems operate in the PM domain. One of the challenges of creating maintenance plans is integrating AI output with human decision-making pro- cesses and expertise. For AI to be helpful and trustworthy, fault predictions must be contextualized and easily comprehensible to humans. This involves providing tailored explanations to different actors depending on their roles and needs. For example, engineers can be connected to technical installation blueprints, while man- agers can evaluate system downtime costs, and lawyers can assess safety-threatening failures' potential liability. In many industries, black-box AI systems analyze sensor data to predict failures by detecting anomalies and deviations from typical behavior with impressive accuracy. However, PM is just one part of a broader context that aims to identify the most probable causes, develop a recovery plan, and estimate remaining useful life while providing alternative solutions. Achieving this requires complex interactions among various actors in industrial and decision-making processes. Our tutorial explores current trends, and promising research directions in Explainable AI (XAI) relevant to Explainable Predictive Maintenance (XPM), and future challenges and open issues on this topic. We will also present three case studies that highlight XPM's challenges in bus and train operations and steel factories.

Predictive maintenance methods assist early detection of failures and errors in machinery before they reach critical stages. This study proposes a data-driven predictive maintenance framework for the air production unit (APU) system of a train of Metro do Porto by deep learning based on a sparse autoencoder (SAE) network that efficiently detects abnormal data and considerably reduces the false alarm rate. Several analog and digital sensors installed on the APU system allow the detection of behavioral changes and deviations from the normal pattern by analyzing the collected data. We implemented two versions of the SAE network in which we inputted analog sensors data and digital sensors data, and the experimental results show that the failures due to air leakage problems are predicted by analog sensors data while other types of failures are identified by digital sensors data. A low pass filter is applied to the output of the SAE network, and a sequence of abnormal data is used as an alarm for the APU system failure. Performance indicators of the SAE network with digital sensors data, in terms of F1 Score, Recall, and Precision, are respectively, about 33.6%, 42%, and 28% better than those of the SAE network with analog sensors data. For comparison purposes, we also implemented a variational autoencoder (VAE). The results show that SAE performance is better than that of VAE by 14%, 77%, and 37% respectively, for Recall, Precision and F1 Score.

Supervised learning with imbalanced domains is one of the biggest challenges in machine learning. Such tasks differ from standard learning tasks by assuming a skewed distribution of target variables, and user domain preference towards under-represented cases. Most research has focused on imbalanced classification tasks, where a wide range of solutions has been tested. Still, little work has been done concerning imbalanced regression tasks. In this paper, we propose an adaptation of the SMOTEBoost approach for the problem of imbalanced regression. Originally designed for classification tasks, it combines boosting methods and the SMOTE resampling strategy. We present four variants of SMOTEBoost and provide an experimental evaluation using 30 datasets with an extensive analysis of results in order to assess the ability of SMOTEBoost methods in predicting extreme target values, and their predictive trade-off concerning baseline boosting methods. SMOTEBoost is publicly available in a software package.

Accounting for misclassification costs is important in many practical applications of machine learning, and cost-sensitive techniques for classification have been studied extensively. Utility-based learning provides a generalization of purely cost-based approaches that considers both costs and benefits, enabling application to domains with complex cost-benefit settings. However, there is little work on utility- or cost-based learning for regression. In this paper, we formally define the problem of utility-based regression and propose a strategy for maximizing the utility of regression models. We verify our findings in a large set of experiments that show the advantage of our proposal in a diverse set of domains, learning algorithms and cost/benefit settings.