Mission Impact Assessment (MIA) is critical for enhancing system effectiveness and ensuring mission success. This article presents Interdependent Mission Impact Assessment ( iMIA ), an interdependent MIA framework that models relationships among mission components and enables probabilistic reasoning under uncertainty. Designed for AI-driven mission systems operating in dynamic, low-data, or poorly observable environments, iMIA addresses the limitations of traditional methods that often rely on overly confident assumptions about adversary behavior. While conventional Hypergame Theory (HGT) captures perceptual uncertainty from asymmetric or inaccurate views, it overlooks epistemic uncertainty arising from limited knowledge. To bridge this gap, we introduce a hybrid Subjective Logic (SL)-based HGT model (SLHG), integrating SL to represent epistemic uncertainty and HGT to account for misperceptions. This integration supports informed decision-making under both uncertain strategy beliefs and divergent environmental views. iMIA evaluates mission impact using multidimensional system quality metrics, security, trust, resilience, and agility, across diverse attacker–defender interactions. It identifies critical nodes influencing mission outcomes and quantifies performance gains from asset capacity reinforcement and asset vulnerability mitigation. Applied to a vehicle-assisted AI-based mission system, iMIA with SLHG improves performance by 16% in \(ASR\) , 20% in \(MTBF\) , 11% in \(TSA\) , and 14% in \(P_{ACC}\) . Designed for incremental development, iMIA supports continuous feedback and iterative refinement. Our results show that feedback-driven adjustments improve overall system performance by up to 18% in the accuracy performance.

Subjective Bayesian networks (SBN) integrate Bayesian Networks (BN) with Subjective Logic, enabling the representation of second-order uncertainty, denoting the uncertainty surrounding the probability distribution of an event. Although prior research predominantly centers on exact inference within the SBN framework, there is a notable dearth of exploration into the realm of approximate inference in SBN. Our work is specifically geared towards addressing this gap, focusing on the application of diverse sampling methodologies (i.e., forward and Gibbs sampling) for approximate inference in SBN. The primary contribution of this work lies not only in the introduction of approximate inference in SBN but also in the formulation of an “anytime” SBN inference algorithm. This implies that a best inference estimate can be obtained at any given moment, given trade-offs in the precision. Moreover, the allocation of computational resources is a customizable and potentially optimizable process. Through a rigorous series of experiments, we empirically demonstrate that the number of iterations to convergence decreases as we provide more samples for both forward and Gibbs sampling. Furthermore, we discover the difference between approximate and exact inference in belief ($\delta_{\text {belief }}$) and uncertainty ($\delta_{\text {uncertainty }}$) mass of subjective opinion becomes more unpredictable as the error gets large in BN probability. Lastly, in our experiments, we demonstrate the number of BN samples has a greater impact on $\delta_{\text {belief }}$ than the number of SBN iterations. These findings indicate that the family of greedy algorithms (based on local graded changes - such as gradients) can be a promising approach for finding optimal allocations of computational resources in this framework. The software assets produced and used in this work will be made available as an open source Python library.

Test and Evaluation for verification and validation (V&V) of sensor data fusion techniques utilize methods of uncertainty analysis. The Uncertainty Representation and Reasoning Evaluation Framework (URREF) ontology identifies many attributes of metrics (i.e., semantic meaning, object metrics, and subjective quality). With the growing interest in artificial intelligence (AI) due to large data corpus access, fast compute power, and machine/deep learning (ML/DL) techniques; V&V of these methods are needed. In this paper, the enhancement of the URREF to utilize a risk assessment for decision is demonstrated towards analysis/alignment of ML/DL methods that utilize multi-modal data fusion. Evidential reasoning is considered in the use case to provide data handing reliability source and processing credibility to measure decision risk in a maritime domain awareness scenario.

Research in Natural Language Processing, bio-medicine, and computer vision achieved excellent results in machine learning due to the success of the Transformer-based models. However, these excellent results depend on the labeled high-quality and large-scale datasets. If one of these requirements is not met, the model may lack generalization ability, and its performance will be unsatisfactory. To address these issues, this research proposes a Generic Multimodal Gradient-Based Meta Framework (GeMGF) trained from scratch to avoid language bias, learns from a few data, and reduces the model degradation trained on a finite dataset. GeMGF was evaluated using the benchmark dataset CUB-200-2011 for the text and image classification tasks. The results show that GeMGF outperforms the state-of-the-art models with 93.2% accuracy. GeMGF is simple, efficient, and adaptable to other data modalities and fields.

ChatGPT, OpenAI’s chatbot, has gained consider-able attention since its launch in November 2022, owing to its ability to formulate articulated responses to text queries and comments relating to seemingly any conceivable subject. As impressive as the majority of interactions with ChatGPT are, this large language model has a number of acknowledged shortcomings, which in several cases, may be directly related to how ChatGPT handles uncertainty. The objective of this paper is to pave the way to formal analysis of ChatGPT uncertainty handling. To this end, the ability of the Uncertainty Representation and Reasoning Framework (URREF) ontology is assessed, to support such analysis. Elements of structured experiments for reproducible results are identified. The dataset built varies Information Criteria of Correctness, Non-specificity, Self-confidence, Relevance and Inconsistency, and the Source Criteria of Reliability, Competency and Type. ChatGPT’s answers are analyzed along Information Criteria of Correctness, Non-specificity and Self-confidence. Both generic and singular information are sequentially provided. The outcome of this preliminary study is twofold: Firstly, we validate that the experimental setup is efficient in capturing aspects of ChatGPT uncertainty handling. Secondly, we identify possible modifications to the URREF ontology that will be discussed and eventually implemented in URREF ontology Version 4.0 under development.

Subjective Bayesian networks (SBN) combine Bayesian Networks (BN) with Subjective Logic in order to express the second-order uncertainty (i.e., the uncertainty about a probability distribution of an event – as opposed to the uncertainty about the event itself). While SBNs provide a strong formalism for treating the uncertainty in a higher level, the literature lacks support for extensive software implementations focused on compatibility with current software solutions or standards. Our work explores the structural congruence between BN and SBN (in terms of software data structure) and a semantic bijection between Subjective Logic opinions to Dirichlet distributions to introduce a SBN reasoning framework that targets on effectively reusing the existing BN solutions. Particularly, we developed two inference algorithms that apply a Monte Carlo method to existing BN inference algorithms (we chose the Junction Tree algorithm, for test), respectively for batch and interactive SBN reasoning. A method for translating an evidence in SBN to uncertain (virtual) evidence in BN is also presented. The main contribution of this paper is the introduction of a simple, yet flexible empirical estimation method and a software architecture that virtually adapts any BN inference algorithm to an approximate computational inference framework for SBN. We also developed a Java component to demonstrate the reusability, and we developed a case study of Mission Impact Assessment of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles transporting critical items between hospitals in order to illustrate the applicability in a knowledge engineering process.

This paper explores the use of the Uncertainty Representation and Reasoning Evaluation Framework (URREF), a framework intended to change that state of affairs, in evaluating potential uncertainty representation approaches for a maritime Decision Support System. We revisit some comparison aspects discussed along the years and map them to the URREF. We illustrate the comparison on a simple maritime use case involving basic reasoning about threat assessment, with observations from partially reliable sources. The same fusion problem is modeled with the two uncertainty theories of Bayesian probability theory and evidence theory. Within the same framework, we consider two different reasoning schemes, Causal and Evidential, complemented with a source model of partial reliability. Comparison items are mapped to URREF ontology criteria of (Representation) Expressiveness and (Reasoning) Correctness. We highlight the criteria that can be useful in supporting systems developers in their choice of how to represent and manage uncertainty in information fusion processes, and propose some refinement to the URREF to capture handling of inconsistency.

High-Level Information Fusion (HLIF) provides the ability to combine data from diverse sources, including documents involving analyst assessment and raw sensor reports generated by sensors, in a coherent and consistent way. Command and Control (C2) in cyber infrastructure involves gathering information from experts, merging it with field knowledge and experimental results, and selected the most appropriate cyber assets to deploy at any given time in the mission cycle. When framing cyber asset selection as a HLIF problem, one key aspect involves estimation of network-wide impacts generated by cyber assets. Cyberspace is a highly dynamic man-made domain with a high degree of uncertainty and incomplete data which must be transformed into knowledge to support precise and predictable cyber effects estimation. Current systems have to rely on human subject matter experts (SMEs) for most tasks, rendering the cyber asset planning process too time consuming and therefore operationally ineffective. This paper proposes an architecture that leverages probabilistic ontologies to expedite the cyber asset planning process, allowing for the automation of most time-consuming, error-prone, SME-based knowledge elicitation under uncertainty. We illustrate the main aspects of the proposed architecture through examples taken from the Derived and Integrated Cyber Assets (DICE) project.

The choices of the uncertainty representations and reasoning methods have a critical impact on the development and deployment of modern fusion solutions. They influence the development effort, the quality of the resulting solutions as well as the deployment costs. However, such choices require an analysis that considers many operational and theoretical aspects. The Uncertainty Representation and Reasoning Evaluation Framework (URREF) concepts enable such an analysis. The proposed URREF -driven development approach establishes relations between the URREF criteria and evaluation subjects in the context of a development and deployment life cycle. In this way the relevant theoretical elements of the fusion techniques employed are emphasized and evaluated at various stages of the development process, facilitating informed design choices as well as systematic and tractable evaluation of complex fusion solutions. The concepts are illustrated through the assessment of a high-level fusion approach supporting estimation of the whereabouts of wildlife poachers.

Aiding decision-makers is a key function of a fusion system. In designing decision-aiding modules for fusion systems, it is necessary to understand the elements of the decision model and the dependencies that connect them. An ontology is a disciplined means to codify that understanding. Many fusion systems have a Bayesian Network (BN) component to support probabilistic reasoning under uncertainty. Decision graphs (DG) are an extension that adds decision aiding to BNs. Both BNs and DGs have limited logical expressivity, able to model propositions, but cannot directly model variable numbers of entities or variations in their attributes and relationships. This important capability is called first-order expressivity. Multi-Entity Bayesian Network (MEBN) was developed to provide first-order logic expressivity to BNs. We are developing Multi-Entity Decision Graph (MEDG) to do the same for decision graphs. We found that a decision ontology is useful to our efforts. The literature has a limited discussion of decision ontologies. Almost all focus on the entities and the entity hierarchy. But BNs and DGs emphasize relationships and the dependencies between relationships. The key for probabilistic first-order expressivity is to identify the relationships that enable dependencies between entity instances. We developed a MEDG Decision Ontology that highlights both the entities and key relationships that any decision model needs to address. It is designed to support decision model developers, including fusion model developers, in building comprehensive decision aiding capabilities.

The International Society of Information Fusion (ISIF) Evaluation Techniques for Uncertainty Representation Working Group (ETURWG) investigates the quantification and evaluation of all types of uncertainty regarding the inputs, reasoning and outputs of the information fusion process. The ETURWG is developing an Uncertainty Representation and Reasoning Framework (URREF) ontology for this purpose. This paper outlines a start towards the process of defining metrics for the URREF data criteria, which will align the URREF ontology with practical application. A criterion can be evaluated according to several metrics, and a metric can be applied to several criteria. As such, the ontology would have to reflect the nature of a many-to-many mapping between criteria and metrics. The main findings and suggestions of the paper advancing the use of URREF are: 1) The Weight of Information (WoI) is dependent on data criteria, which in turn depend on source criteria. 2) Criteria and metrics that apply to evidence (typically an input of the fusion system), could equally apply to the fusion system outputs or internal information, which in turn could form the inputs of another system. As such the word “Evidence” in the terms “Piece of Evidence” and “Weight of Evidence” should be replaced by the word “Information”. 3) Accuracy and precision and associated metrics are ubiquitous in the URREF ontology and can evaluate many parts of the fusion system. 4) The weight of information also assumes an important position in the ontology, as it depends on several source and data criteria.

The question addressed in this paper is “what” is to be evaluated by the Uncertainty Representation and Reasoning Evaluation Framework (URREF) ontology. We thus identify the elements composing uncertainty representation and reasoning approaches, which constitute various subjects being assessed. We distinguish between primary evaluation subjects (Uncertainty Representation and Reasoning components of the fusion algorithm), and secondary evaluation subjects (source of information, piece of information, fusion method and mathematical model). This paper proposes a list of source quality criteria to be added to the ontology and establishes formal links between the secondary and primary evaluation subjects. The key contribution of the paper is the update of the definitions of sub-criteria of the Expressiveness criterion together with suggestions for complementary concepts to be included in the ontology (type of scale, type of uncertainty expression). Conclusions are drawn to extend the work in using the expressiveness criterion for information fusion analysis.

In a net-centric world, systems will be required to fuse data from geographically dispersed, heterogeneous information sources operating asynchronously, to produce up-to-date, mission-relevant knowledge to inform commanders. Realizing this vision requires overcoming a number of technical challenges. Among these is the need for semantic interoperability among systems with different internal data models and vocabularies. Ontologies are seen as a key enabling technology for semantic interoperability. Although information fusion by nature involves reasoning under uncertainty, traditional ontology formalisms provide no principled means of reasoning under uncertainty. This paper proposes the use of probabilistic ontologies within a service-oriented architecture as a means to enable semantic interoperability in net-centric fusion systems.