Identifying the root causes of outliers is a fundamental problem in causal inference and anomaly detection. Traditional approaches based on heuristics or counterfactual reasoning often struggle under uncertainty and high-dimensional dependencies. We introduce SIREN, a novel and scalable method that attributes the root causes of outliers by estimating the score functions of the data likelihood. Attribution is computed via integrated gradients that accumulate score contributions along paths from the outlier toward the normal data distribution. Our method satisfies three of the four classic Shapley value axioms-dummy, efficiency, and linearity-as well as an asymmetry axiom derived from the underlying causal structure. Unlike prior work, SIREN operates directly on the score function, enabling tractable and uncertainty-aware root cause attribution in nonlinear, high-dimensional, and heteroscedastic causal models. Extensive experiments on synthetic random graphs and real-world cloud service and supply chain datasets show that SIREN outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both attribution accuracy and computational efficiency.

The rise of big data and big compute has brought modern neural networks to many walks of digital life, thanks to the relative ease of constructing large models that scale to the real world. Current successes of Transformers and self-supervised pretraining on massive data have led some to believe that deep neural networks will be able to do almost everything once we have sufficient data and computational resources. However, neural networks are fast to exploit surface statistics but fail miserably to generalize to novel combinations. This is because they are not designed for deliberate reasoning -- the capacity to deliberately deduce new knowledge out of the contextualized data. This tutorial reviews recent developments to extend the capacity of neural networks to "learning-to-reason'' from data, where the task is to determine if the data entails a conclusion. This capacity opens up new ways to generate insights from data through arbitrary compositional querying without the need of predefining a narrow set of tasks. The tutorial consists of four parts. The first part covers the learning-to-reason framework, and explains how neural networks can serve as a strong backbone for reasoning through its natural operations such as binding, attention & dynamic computational graphs. The second part goes into more detail on how neural networks perform reasoning over unstructured and structured data, and across modalities. The third part reviews neural memories and their role in reasoning. The last part discusses generalization to novel combinations, under less supervision and with more knowledge.

We address a fundamental problem in chemistry known as chemical reaction product prediction. Our main insight is that the input reactant and reagent molecules can be jointly represented as a graph, and the process of generating product molecules from reactant molecules can be formulated as a sequence of graph transformations. To this end, we propose Graph Transformation Policy Network (GTPN) - a novel generic method that combines the strengths of graph neural networks and reinforcement learning to learn reactions directly from data with minimal chemical knowledge. Compared to previous methods, GTPN has some appealing properties such as: end-to-end learning, and making no assumption about the length or the order of graph transformations. In order to guide model search through the complex discrete space of sets of bond changes effectively, we extend the standard policy gradient loss by adding useful constraints. Evaluation results show that GTPN improves the top-1 accuracy over the current state-of-the-art method by about 3% on the large USPTO dataset.

Defects are common in software systems and cause many problems for software users. Different methods have been developed to make early prediction about the most likely defective modules in large codebases. Most focus on designing features (e.g. complexity metrics) that correlate with potentially defective code. Those approaches however do not sufficiently capture the syntax and multiple levels of semantics of source code, a potentially important capability for building accurate prediction models. In this paper, we report on our experience of deploying a new deep learning tree-based defect prediction model in practice. This model is built upon the tree-structured Long Short Term Memory network which directly matches with the Abstract Syntax Tree representation of source code. We discuss a number of lessons learned from developing the model and evaluating it on two datasets, one from open source projects contributed by our industry partner Samsung and the other from the public PROMISE repository.

Designing new physical products and processes requires enormous experimentation. The scientific simulators play a fundamental role for such design tasks. To design a new product with certain target characteristics, a search is performed in the design space by trying out a large number of design combinations through simulators before reaching to the target characteristics. However, searching for the target design using simulators is generally expensive and becomes prohibitive when the target is either revised or only partially specified. To address this problem, we use a machine learning model to predict the design in single step using the target product specifications as input. We overcome two technical challenges: the first caused due to one-to-many mapping when learning the inverse problem and the second caused due to a user specifying the target specifications only partially. We unify a conditional variational auto-encoder model (to address the partial target specification) with mixture density networks (to address the one-to-many mapping) and train an end-to-end model to predict the optimum design.

One of the core tasks in multi-view learning is to capture relations among views. For sequential data, the relations not only span across views, but also extend throughout the view length to form long-term intra-view and inter-view interactions. In this paper, we present a new memory augmented neural network that aims to model these complex interactions between two asynchronous sequential views. Our model uses two encoders for reading from and writing to two external memories for encoding input views. The intra-view interactions and the long-term dependencies are captured by the use of memories during this encoding process. There are two modes of memory accessing in our system: late-fusion and early-fusion, corresponding to late and early inter-view interactions. In the late-fusion mode, the two memories are separated, containing only view-specific contents. In the early-fusion mode, the two memories share the same addressing space, allowing cross-memory accessing. In both cases, the knowledge from the memories will be combined by a decoder to make predictions over the output space. The resulting dual memory neural computer is demonstrated on a comprehensive set of experiments, including a synthetic task of summing two sequences and the tasks of drug prescription and disease progression in healthcare. The results demonstrate competitive performance over both traditional algorithms and deep learning methods designed for multi-view problems.

Identifying risks relevant to a software project and planning measures to deal with them are critical to the success of the project. Current practices in risk assessment mostly rely on high-level, generic guidance or the subjective judgements of experts. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to risk assessment using historical data associated with a software project. Specifically, our approach identifies patterns of past events that caused project delays, and uses this knowledge to identify risks in the current state of the project. A set of risk factors characterizing “risky” software tasks (in the form of issues) were extracted from five open source projects: Apache, Duraspace, JBoss, Moodle, and Spring. In addition, we performed feature selection using a sparse logistic regression model to select risk factors with good discriminative power. Based on these risk factors, we built predictive models to predict if an issue will cause a project delay. Our predictive models are able to predict both the risk impact (i.e. the extend of the delay) and the likelihood of a risk occurring. The evaluation results demonstrate the effectiveness of our predictive models, achieving on average 48%-81% precision, 23%-90% recall, 29%-71% F-measure, and 70%-92% Area Under the ROC Curve. Our predictive models also have low error rates: 0.39-0.75 for Macro-averaged Mean Cost-Error and 0.7-1.2 for Macro-averaged Mean Absolute Error.

Suicide is a major concern in society. Despite of great attention paid by the community with very substantive medico-legal implications, there has been no satisfying method that can reliably predict the future attempted or completed suicide. We present an integrated machine learning framework to tackle this challenge. Our proposed framework consists of a novel feature extraction scheme, an embedded feature selection process, a set of risk classifiers and finally, a risk calibration procedure. For temporal feature extraction, we cast the patient's clinical history into a temporal image to which a bank of one-side filters are applied. The responses are then partly transformed into mid-level features and then selected in l1-norm framework under the extreme value theory. A set of probabilistic ordinal risk classifiers are then applied to compute the risk probabilities and further re-rank the features. Finally, the predicted risks are calibrated. Together with our Australian partner, we perform comprehensive study on data collected for the mental health cohort, and the experiments validate that our proposed framework outperforms risk assessment instruments by medical practitioners.

Ranking is an important task for handling a large amount of content. Ideally, training data for supervised ranking would include a complete rank of documents (or other objects such as images or videos) for a particular query. However, this is only possible for small sets of documents. In practice, one often resorts to document rating, in that a subset of documents is assigned with a small number indicating the degree of relevance. This poses a general problem of modelling and learning rank data with ties. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic generative model, that models the process as permutations over partitions. This results in super-exponential combinatorial state space with unknown numbers of partitions and unknown ordering among them. We approach the problem from the discrete choice theory, where subsets are chosen in a stagewise manner, reducing the state space per each stage significantly. Further, we show that with suitable parameterisation, we can still learn the models in linear time. We evaluate the proposed models on two application areas: (i) document ranking with the data from the recently held Yahoo! challenge, and (ii) collaborative filtering with movie data. The results demonstrate that the models are competitive against well-known rivals.

Although tagging has become increasingly popular in online image and video sharing systems, tags are known to be noisy, ambiguous, incomplete and subjective. These factors can seriously affect the precision of a social tag-based web retrieval system. Therefore improving the precision performance of these social tag-based web retrieval systems has become an increasingly important research topic. To this end, we propose a shared subspace learning framework to leverage a secondary source to improve retrieval performance from a primary dataset. This is achieved by learning a shared subspace between the two sources under a joint Nonnegative Matrix Factorization in which the level of subspace sharing can be explicitly controlled. We derive an efficient algorithm for learning the factorization, analyze its complexity, and provide proof of convergence. We validate the framework on image and video retrieval tasks in which tags from the LabelMe dataset are used to improve image retrieval performance from a Flickr dataset and video retrieval performance from a YouTube dataset. This has implications for how to exploit and transfer knowledge from readily available auxiliary tagging resources to improve another social web retrieval system. Our shared subspace learning framework is applicable to a range of problems where one needs to exploit the strengths existing among multiple and heterogeneous datasets.