Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in data mining, driving rapid advancements across numerous industries. With the emergence of large models, time series foundation models (TSFMs) have exhibited remarkable generalization capabilities, such as zero-shot learning, through large-scale pre-training. Meanwhile, Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) methods have been widely employed to enhance the performance of foundation models on unseen data, allowing models to access to external knowledge. In this paper, we introduceTimeRAF, aRetrieval-AugmentedForecasting model that enhance zero-shot time series forecasting through retrieval-augmented techniques. We develop customized time series knowledge bases that are tailored to the specific forecasting tasks. TimeRAF employs an end-to-end learnable retriever to extract valuable information from the knowledge base. Additionally, we propose Channel Prompting for knowledge integration, which effectively extracts relevant information from the retrieved knowledge along the channel dimension. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our model, showing significant improvement across various domains and datasets.

Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) of time series aims to teach models to identify consistent patterns across various temporal scenarios, disregarding domain-specific differences, which can maintain their predictive accuracy and effectively adapt to new domains. However, existing UDA methods struggle to adequately extract and align both global and local features in time series data. To address this issue, we propose theLocal-GlobalRepresentationAlignment framework (LogoRA), which employs a two-branch encoder–comprising a multi-scale convolutional branch and a patching transformer branch. The encoder enables the extraction of both local and global representations from time series. A fusion module is then introduced to integrate these representations, enhancing domain-invariant feature alignment from multi-scale perspectives. To achieve effective alignment, LogoRA employs strategies like invariant feature learning on the source domain, utilizing triplet loss for fine alignment and dynamic time warping-based feature alignment. Additionally, it reduces source-target domain gaps through adversarial training and per-class prototype alignment. Our evaluations on four time-series datasets demonstrate that LogoRA outperforms strong baselines by up to 12.52%, showcasing its superiority in time series UDA tasks.

Portfolio Selection is an important real-world financial task and has attracted extensive attention in artificial intelligence communities. This task, however, has two main difficulties: (i) the non-stationary price series and complex asset correlations make the learning of feature representation very hard; (ii) the practicality principle in financial markets requires controlling both transaction and risk costs. Most existing methods adopt handcraft features and/or consider no constraints for the costs, which may make them perform unsatisfactorily and fail to control both costs in practice. In this paper, we propose a cost-sensitive portfolio selection method with deep reinforcement learning. Specifically, a novel two-stream portfolio policy network is devised to extract both price series patterns and asset correlations, while a new cost-sensitive reward function is developed to maximize the accumulated return and constrain both costs via reinforcement learning. We theoretically analyze the near-optimality of the proposed reward, which shows that the growth rate of the policy regarding this reward function can approach the theoretical optimum. We also empirically evaluate the proposed method on real-world datasets. Promising results demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method in terms of profitability, cost-sensitivity and representation abilities.

Domain generalization (DG) approaches typically use the hypothesis learned on source domains for inference on the unseen target domain. However, such a hypothesis can be arbitrarily far from the optimal one for the target domain, induced by a gap termed ''adaptivity gap.'' Without exploiting the domain information from the unseen test samples, adaptivity gap estimation and minimization are intractable, which hinders us to robustify a model to any unknown distribution. In this paper, we first establish a generalization bound that explicitly considers the adaptivity gap. Our bound motivates two strategies to reduce the gap: the first one is ensembling multiple classifiers to enrich the hypothesis space, then we propose effective gap estimation methods for guiding the selection of a better hypothesis for the target. The other method is minimizing the gap directly by adapting model parameters using online target samples. We thus propose Domain-specific Risk Minimization (DRM). During training, DRM models the distributions of different source domains separately; for inference, DRM performs online model steering using the source hypothesis for each arriving target sample. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed DRM for domain generalization. Code is available at: https://github.com/yfzhang114/AdaNPC.

Portfolio Selection is an important real-world financial task and has attracted extensive attention in artificial intelligence communities. This task, however, has two main difficulties: (i) the non-stationary price series and complex asset correlations make the learning of feature representation very hard; (ii) the practicality principle in financial markets requires controlling both transaction and risk costs. Most existing methods adopt handcraft features and/or consider no constraints for the costs, which may make them perform unsatisfactorily and fail to control both costs in practice. In this paper, we propose a cost-sensitive portfolio selection method with deep reinforcement learning. Specifically, a novel two-stream portfolio policy network is devised to extract both price series patterns and asset correlations, while a new cost-sensitive reward function is developed to maximize the accumulated return and constrain both costs via reinforcement learning. We theoretically analyze the near-optimality of the proposed reward, which shows that the growth rate of the policy regarding this reward function can approach the theoretical optimum. We also empirically evaluate the proposed method on real-world datasets. Promising results demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method in terms of profitability, cost-sensitivity and representation abilities.

Online Active Learning (OAL) aims to manage unlabeled datastream by selectively querying the label of data. OAL is applicable to many real-world problems, such as anomaly detection in health-care and finance. In these problems, there are two key challenges: the query budget is often limited; the ratio between classes is highly imbalanced. In practice, it is quite difficult to handle imbalanced unlabeled datastream when only a limited budget of labels can be queried for training. To solve this, previous OAL studies adopt either asymmetric losses or queries (an isolated asymmetric strategy) to tackle the imbalance, and use first-order methods to optimize the cost-sensitive measure. However, the isolated strategy limits their performance in class imbalance, while first-order methods restrict their optimization performance. In this article, we propose a novel Online Adaptive Asymmetric Active learning algorithm, based on a new asymmetric strategy (merging both asymmetric losses and queries strategies), and second-order optimization. We theoretically analyze its mistake bound and cost-sensitive metric bounds. Moreover, to better balance performance and efficiency, we enhance our algorithm via a sketching technique, which significantly accelerates the computational speed with quite slight performance degradation. Promising results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed methods.

Cost-Sensitive Online Classification has drawn extensive attention in recent years, where the main approach is to directly online optimize two well-known cost-sensitive metrics: (i) weighted sum of sensitivity and specificity and (ii) weighted misclassification cost. However, previous existing methods only considered first-order information of data stream. It is insufficient in practice, since many recent studies have proved that incorporating second-order information enhances the prediction performance of classification models. Thus, we propose a family of cost-sensitive online classification algorithms with adaptive regularization in this paper. We theoretically analyze the proposed algorithms and empirically validate their effectiveness and properties in extensive experiments. Then, for better trade off between the performance and efficiency, we further introduce the sketching technique into our algorithms, which significantly accelerates the computational speed with quite slight performance loss. Finally, we apply our algorithms to tackle several online anomaly detection tasks from real world. Promising results prove that the proposed algorithms are effective and efficient in solving cost-sensitive online classification problems in various real-world domains.

This paper investigates Online Active Learning (OAL) for imbalanced unlabeled datastream, where only a budget of labels can be queried to optimize some cost-sensitive performance measure. OAL can solve many real-world problems, such as anomaly detection in healthcare, finance and network security. In these problems, there are two key challenges: the query budget is often limited; the ratio between two classes is highly imbalanced. To address these challenges, existing work of OAL adopts either asymmetric losses or queries (an isolated asymmetric strategy) to tackle the imbalance, and uses first-order methods to optimize the cost-sensitive measure. However, they may incur two deficiencies: (1) the poor ability in handling imbalanced data due to the isolated asymmetric strategy; (2) relative slow convergence rate due to the first-order optimization. In this paper, we propose a novel Online Adaptive Asymmetric Active (OA3) learning algorithm, which is based on a new asymmetric strategy (merging both the asymmetric losses and queries strategies), and second-order optimization. We theoretically analyze its bounds, and also empirically evaluate it on four real-world online anomaly detection tasks. Promising results confirm the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed algorithm in various application domains.