Next Set Recommendation (NSRec), encompassing related tasks such as next basket recommendation and temporal sets prediction, stands as a trending research topic. Although numerous attempts have been made on this topic, there are certain drawbacks: (i) Existing studies are still confined to utilizing objective functions commonly found in Next Item Recommendation (NIRec), such as binary cross entropy and BPR, which are calculated based on individual item comparisons; (ii) They place emphasis on building sophisticated learning models to capture intricate dependency relationships across sequential sets, but frequently overlook pivotal dependency in their objective functions; (iii) Diversity factor within sequential sets is frequently overlooked. In this research, we endeavor to unveil a universal and Sets-level optimization framework for Next Set Recommendation (SNSRec), offering a holistic fusion of diversity distribution and intricate dependency relationships within temporal sets. To realize this, the following contributions are made: (i) We directly model the temporal set in a sequence as a cohesive entity, leveraging the Structured Determinantal Point Process (SDPP), wherein the probabilistic DPP distribution prioritizes collections of structures (sequential sets) instead of individual items; (ii) We introduce a co-occurrence representation to discern and acknowledge the importance of different sets; (iii) We propose a sets-level optimization criterion, which integrates the diversity distribution and dependency relations across the entire sequence of sets, guiding the model to recommend relevant and diversified set. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets show that our approach consistently outperforms previous methods on both relevance and diversity.

The key to personalized recommendation is to predict a personalized ranking on a catalog of items by modeling the user's preferences. There are many personalized ranking approaches for item recommendation from implicit feedback like Bayesian Personalized Ranking (BPR) and listwise ranking. Despite these methods have shown performance benefits, there are still limitations affecting recommendation performance. First, none of them directly optimize ranking of sets, causing inadequate exploitation of correlations among multiple items. Second, the diversity aspect of recommendations is insufficiently addressed compared to relevance. In this work, we present a new optimization criterion LkP based on set probability comparison for personalized ranking that moves beyond traditional ranking-based methods. It for-malizes set-level relevance and diversity ranking comparisons through a Determinantal Point Process (DPP) kernel decom-position. To confer ranking interpretability to the DPP set probabilities and prioritize the practicality of LkP, we condition the standard DPP on the cardinality$k$of the DPP-distributed set, known as k-DPP, a less-explored extension of DPP. The generic stochastic gradient descent based technique can be directly applied to optimizing models that employ LkP. We implement LkP in the context of both Matrix Factorization (MF) and neural networks approaches, on three real-world datasets, obtaining improved relevance and diversity performances. LkP is broadly applicable, and when applied to existing recommendation models it also yields strong performance improvements, suggesting that LkP holds significant value to the field of recommender systems.

The ever-growing textual records of contemporary social issues, often discussed online with moral rhetoric, present both an opportunity and a challenge for studying how moral concerns are debated in real life. Moral foundations theory is a taxonomy of intuitions widely used in data-driven analyses of online content, but current computational tools to detect moral foundations suffer from the incompleteness and fragility of their lexicons and from poor generalization across data domains. In this paper, we fine-tune a large language model to measure moral foundations in text based on datasets covering news media and long- and short-form online discussions. The resulting model, called Mformer, outperforms existing approaches on the same domains by 4–12% in AUC and further generalizes well to four commonly used moral text datasets, improving by up to 17% in AUC. We present case studies using Mformer to analyze everyday moral dilemmas on Reddit and controversies on Twitter, showing that moral foundations can meaningfully describe people’s stance on social issues and such variations are topic-dependent. Pretrained model and datasets are released publicly. We posit that Mformer will help the research community quantify moral dimensions for a range of tasks and data domains, and eventually contribute to the understanding of moral situations faced by humans and machines.

Sequential Recommendation (SR) navigates users' dynamic preferences through modeling their historical interactions. The incorporation of the popular Transformer framework, which captures long relationships through pairwise dot products, has notably benefited SR. However, prevailing research in this domain faces three significant challenges: (i) Existing studies directly adopt the primary component of Transformer (i.e., the self-attention mechanism), without a clear explanation or tailored definition for its specific role in SR; (ii) The predominant focus on pairwise computations overlooks the global context or relative prevalence of item pairs within the overall sequence; (iii) Transformer primarily pursues relevance-dominated relationships, neglecting another essential objective in recommendation, i.e., diversity. In response, this work introduces a fresh perspective to elucidate the attention mechanism in SR. Here, attention is defined as dependency interactions among items, quantitatively determined under a global probabilistic model by observing the probabilities of corresponding item subsets. This viewpoint offers a precise and context-specific definition of attention, leading to the design of a distinctive attention mechanism tailored for SR. Specifically, we transmute the well-formulated global, repulsive interactions in Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs) to effectively model dependency interactions. Guided by the repulsive interactions, a theoretically and practically feasible DPP kernel is designed, enabling our attention mechanism to directly consider category/topic distribution for enhancing diversity. Consequently, the Probabilistic Attention mechanism (PAtt) for sequential recommendation is developed. Experimental results demonstrate the excellent scalability and adaptability of our attention mechanism, which significantly improves recommendation performance in terms of both relevance and diversity.

This work is concerned with the dynamics of online cultural markets, namely, attention allocation of many users on a set of digital goods with infinite supply. Such dynamics are important in shaping processes and outcomes in society, from trending items in entertainment, collective knowledge creation, to election outcomes. The outcomes of online cultural markets are susceptible to intricate social influence dynamics, particularly so when the community comprises consumers with heterogeneous interests. This has made formal analysis of these markets improbable. In this paper, we remedy this by establishing robust connections between influence dynamics and optimization processes, in trial-offer markets where the consumer preferences are modelled by multinomial logit. Among other results, we show that the proportional-response-esque influence dynamic is equivalent to stochastic mirror descent on a convex objective function, thus leading to a stable and predictable outcome. When all consumers are homogeneous, the objective function has a natural interpretation as a weighted sum of efficiency and diversity of the culture market. In simulations driven by real-world preferences collected from a large-scale recommender system, we observe that ranking strategies aligned with the underlying heterogeneous preferences are more stable, and achieves higher efficiency and diversity. More broadly, we see this work as the first step in connecting computational methods for classical markets to the problem area of online attention and recommender systems. We hope this result paves the way to posing and answering a diverse set of research questions in this area.

Sequential recommendation is a popular task in academic research and close to real-world application scenarios, where the goal is to predict the next action(s) of the user based on his/her previous sequence of actions. In the training process of recommender systems, the loss function plays an essential role in guiding the optimization of recommendation models to generate accurate suggestions for users. However, most existing sequential recommendation tech- niques focus on designing algorithms or neural network architectures, and few efforts have been made to tailor loss functions that fit naturally into the practical application scenario of sequential recommender systems.

The collective attention on online items such as web pages, search terms, and videos reflects trends that are of social, cultural, and economic interest. Moreover, attention trends of different items exhibit mutual influence via mechanisms such as hyperlinks or recommendations. Many visualisation tools exist for time series, network evolution, or network influence; however, few systems connect all three. In this work, we present AttentionFlow, a new system to visualise networks of time series and the dynamic influence they have on one another. Centred around an ego node, our system simultaneously presents the time series on each node using two visual encodings: a tree ring for an overview and a line chart for details. AttentionFlow supports interactions such as overlaying time series of influence, and filtering neighbours by time or flux. We demonstrate AttentionFlow using two real-world datasets, VevoMusic and WikiTraffic. We show that attention spikes in songs can be explained by external events such as major awards, or changes in the network such as the release of a new song. Separate case studies also demonstrate how an artist's influence changes over their career, and that correlated Wikipedia traffic is driven by cultural interests. More broadly, AttentionFlow can be generalised to visualise networks of time series on physical infrastructures such as road networks, or natural phenomena such as weather and geological measurements.

We propose a new model for networks of time series that influence each other. Graph structures among time series are found in diverse domains, such as web traffic influenced by hyperlinks, product sales influenced by recommendation, or urban transport volume influenced by road networks and weather. There has been recent progress in graph modeling and in time series forecasting, respectively, but an expressive and scalable approach for a network of series does not yet exist. We introduce Radflow, a novel model that embodies three key ideas: a recurrent neural network to obtain node embeddings that depend on time, the aggregation of the flow of influence from neighboring nodes with multi-head attention, and the multi-layer decomposition of time series. Radflow naturally takes into account dynamic networks where nodes and edges change over time, and it can be used for prediction and data imputation tasks. On real-world datasets ranging from a few hundred to a few hundred thousand nodes, we observe that Radflow variants are the best performing model across a wide range of settings. The recurrent component in Radflow also outperforms N-BEATS, the state-of-the-art time series model. We show that Radflow can learn different trends and seasonal patterns, that it is robust to missing nodes and edges, and that correlated temporal patterns among network neighbors reflect influence strength. We curate WikiTraffic, the largest dynamic network of time series with 366K nodes and 22M time-dependent links spanning five years. This dataset provides an open benchmark for developing models in this area, with applications that include optimizing resources for the web. More broadly, Radflow has the potential to improve forecasts in correlated time series networks such as the stock market, and impute missing measurements in geographically dispersed networks of natural phenomena.

It is well-known that online behavior is long-tailed, with most cascaded actions being short and a few being very long. A prominent drawback in generative models for online events is the inability to describe unpopular items well. This work addresses these shortcomings by proposing dual mixture self-exciting processes to jointly learn from groups of cascades. We first start from the observation that maximum likelihood estimates for content virality and influence decay are separable in a Hawkes process. Next, our proposed model, which leverages a Borel mixture model and a kernel mixture model, jointly models the unfolding of a heterogeneous set of cascades. When applied to cascades of the same online items, the model directly characterizes their spread dynamics and supplies interpretable quantities, such as content virality and content influence decay, as well as methods for predicting the final content popularities. On two retweet cascade datasets --- one relating to YouTube videos and the second relating to controversial news articles --- we show that our models capture the differences between online items at the granularity of items, publishers and categories. In particular, we are able to distinguish between far-right, conspiracy, controversial and reputable online news articles based on how they diffuse through social media, achieving an F1 score of 0.945. On holdout datasets, we show that the dual mixture model provides, for reshare diffusion cascades especially unpopular ones, better generalization performance and, for online items, accurate item popularity predictions.

Epidemic models and self-exciting processes are two types of models used to describe diffusion phenomena online and offline. These models were originally developed in different scientific communities, and their commonalities are under-explored. This work establishes, for the first time, a general connection between the two model classes via three new mathematical components. The first is a generalized version of stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model with arbitrary recovery time distributions; the second is the relationship between the (latent and arbitrary) recovery time distribution, recovery hazard function, and the infection kernel of self-exciting processes; the third includes methods for simulating, fitting, evaluating and predicting the generalized process. On three large Twitter diffusion datasets, we conduct goodness-of-fit tests and holdout log-likelihood evaluation of self-exciting processes with three infection kernels --- exponential, power-law and Tsallis Q-exponential. We show that the modeling performance of the infection kernels varies with respect to the temporal structures of diffusions, and also with respect to user behavior, such as the likelihood of being bots. We further improve the prediction of popularity by combining two models that are identified as complementary by the goodness-of-fit tests.

We propose KGdiff, a new interactive visualization tool for social media content focusing on entities and relationships. The core component is a layout algorithm that highlights the differences between two graphs. We apply this algorithm on knowledge graphs consisting of named entities and their relations extracted from text streams over different time periods. The visualization system provides additional information such as the volume and frequency ranking of entities and allows users to select which parts of the graph to visualize interactively. On Twitter and news article collections, KGdiff allows users to compare different data subsets. Results of such comparisons often reveal topical or geographical changes in a discussion. More broadly, graph differences are useful for a wide range of relational data comparison tasks, such as comparing social interaction graphs, identifying changes in user behavior, or discovering differences in graphs from distinct sources, geography, or political stance.

Among the statistical tools for online information diffusion modeling, both epidemic models and Hawkes point processes are popular choices. The former originate from epidemiology, and consider information as a viral contagion which spreads into a population of online users. The latter have roots in geophysics and finance, view individual actions as discrete events in continuous time, and modulate the rate of events according to the self-exciting nature of event sequences. Here, we establish a novel connection between these two frameworks. Namely, the rate of events in an extended Hawkes model is identical to the rate of new infections in the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model after marginalizing out recovery events -- which are unobserved in a Hawkes process. This result paves the way to apply tools developed for SIR to Hawkes, and vice versa. It also leads to HawkesN, a generalization of the Hawkes model which accounts for a finite population size. Finally, we derive the distribution of cascade sizes for HawkesN, inspired by methods in stochastic SIR. Such distributions provide nuanced explanations to the general unpredictability of popularity: the distribution for diffusion cascade sizes tends to have two modes, one corresponding to large cascade sizes and another one around zero.

We investigate the possibility of leveraging side information for improving quality control over crowd-sourced data. We extend the GLAD model, which governs the probability of correct labeling through a logistic function in which worker expertise counteracts item difficulty, by systematically encod- ing different types of side information, including worker in- formation drawn from demographics and personality traits, item information drawn from item genres and content, and contextual information drawn from worker responses and la- beling sessions. Modeling side information allows for better estimation of worker expertise and item difficulty in sparse data situations and accounts for worker biases, leading to bet- ter prediction of posterior true label probabilities. We demon- strate the efficacy of the proposed framework with overall improvements in both the true label prediction and the un- seen worker response prediction based on different combina- tions of the various types of side information across three new crowd-sourcing datasets. In addition, we show the framework exhibits potential of identifying salient side information fea- tures for predicting the correctness of responses without the need of knowing any true label information.

We present an interactive visualisation tool for recommending travel trajectories. This system is based on new machine learning formulations and algorithms for the sequence recommendation problem. The system starts from a map-based overview, taking an interactive query as starting point. It then breaks down contributions from different geographical and user behavior features, and those from individual points-of-interest versus pairs of consecutive points on a route. The system also supports detailed quantitative interrogation by comparing a large number of features for multiple points. Effective trajectory visualisations can potentially benefit a large cohort of online map users and assist their decision-making. More broadly, the design of this system can inform visualisations of other structured prediction tasks, such as for sequences or trees.

Modeling and predicting the popularity of online content is a significant problem for the practice of information dissemination, advertising, and consumption. Recent work analyzing massive datasets advances our understanding of popularity, but one major gap remains: To precisely quantify the relationship between the popularity of an online item and the external promotions it receives. This work supplies the missing link between exogenous inputs from public social media platforms, such as Twitter, and endogenous responses within the content platform, such as YouTube. We develop a novel mathematical model, the Hawkes intensity process, which can explain the complex popularity history of each video according to its type of content, network of diffusion, and sensitivity to promotion. Our model supplies a prototypical description of videos, called an endo-exo map. This map explains popularity as the result of an extrinsic factor -- the amount of promotions from the outside world that the video receives, acting upon two intrinsic factors -- sensitivity to promotion, and inherent virality. We use this model to forecast future popularity given promotions on a large 5-months feed of the most-tweeted videos, and found it to lower the average error by 28.6% from approaches based on popularity history. Finally, we can identify videos that have a high potential to become viral, as well as those for which promotions will have hardly any effect.

Psychological stress is threatening people's health. It is non-trivial to detect stress timely for proactive care. With the popularity of social media, people are used to sharing their daily activities and interacting with friends on social media platforms, making it feasible to leverage online social network data for stress detection. In this paper, we find that users stress state is closely related to that of his/her friends in social media, and we employ a large-scale dataset from real-world social platforms to systematically study the correlation of users' stress states and social interactions. We first define a set of stress-related textual, visual, and social attributes from various aspects, and then propose a novel hybrid model - a factor graph model combined with Convolutional Neural Network to leverage tweet content and social interaction information for stress detection. Experimental results show that the proposed model can improve the detection performance by 6-9 percent in F1-score. By further analyzing the social interaction data, we also discover several intriguing phenomena, i.e., the number of social structures of sparse connections (i.e., with no delta connections) of stressed users is around 14 percent higher than that of non-stressed users, indicating that the social structure of stressed users' friends tend to be less connected and less complicated than that of non-stressed users.

The problem of recommending tours to travellers is an important and broadly studied area. Suggested solutions include various approaches of points-of-interest (POI) recommendation and route planning. We consider the task of recommending a sequence of POIs, that simultaneously uses information about POIs and routes. Our approach unifies the treatment of various sources of information by representing them as features in machine learning algorithms, enabling us to learn from past behaviour. Information about POIs are used to learn a POI ranking model that accounts for the start and end points of tours. Data about previous trajectories are used for learning transition patterns between POIs that enable us to recommend probable routes. In addition, a probabilistic model is proposed to combine the results of POI ranking and the POI to POI transitions. We propose a new F1 score on pairs of POIs that capture the order of visits. Empirical results show that our approach improves on recent methods, and demonstrate that combining points and routes enables better trajectory recommendations.

Knowledge graph construction consists of two tasks: extracting information from external resources (knowledge population) and inferring missing information through a statistical analysis on the extracted information (knowledge completion). In many cases, insufficient external resources in the knowledge population hinder the subsequent statistical inference. The gap between these two processes can be reduced by an incremental population approach. We propose a new probabilistic knowledge graph factorisation method that benefits from the path structure of existing knowledge (e.g. syllogism) and enables a common modelling approach to be used for both incremental population and knowledge completion tasks. More specifically, the probabilistic formulation allows us to develop an incremental population algorithm that trades off exploitation-exploration. Experiments on three benchmark datasets show that the balanced exploitation-exploration helps the incremental population, and the additional path structure helps to predict missing information in knowledge completion.

Predicting popularity, or the total volume of information outbreaks, is an important subproblem for understanding collective behavior in networks. Each of the two main types of recent approaches to the problem, feature-driven and generative models, have desired qualities and clear limitations. This paper bridges the gap between these solutions with a new hybrid approach and a new performance benchmark. We model each social cascade with a marked Hawkes self-exciting point process, and estimate the content virality, memory decay, and user influence. We then learn a predictive layer for popularity prediction using a collection of cascade history. To our surprise, Hawkes process with a predictive overlay outperform recent feature-driven and generative approaches on existing tweet data [44] and a new public benchmark on news tweets. We also found that a basic set of user features and event time summary statistics performs competitively in both classification and regression tasks, and that adding point process information to the feature set further improves predictions. From these observations, we argue that future work on popularity prediction should compare across feature-driven and generative modeling approaches in both classification and regression tasks.

The cumulative effect of collective online participation has an important and adverse impact on individual privacy. As an online system evolves over time, new digital traces of individual behavior may uncover previously hidden statistical links between an individual's past actions and her private traits. To quantify this effect, we analyze the evolution of individual privacy loss by studying the edit history of Wikipedia over 13 years, including more than 117,523 different users performing 188,805,088 edits. We trace each Wikipedia's contributor using apparently harmless features, such as the number of edits performed on predefined broad categories in a given time period (e.g. Mathematics, Culture or Nature). We show that even at this unspecific level of behavior description, it is possible to use off-the-shelf machine learning algorithms to uncover usually undisclosed personal traits, such as gender, religion or education. We provide empirical evidence that the prediction accuracy for almost all private traits consistently improves over time. Surprisingly, the prediction performance for users who stopped editing after a given time still improves. The activities performed by new users seem to have contributed more to this effect than additional activities from existing (but still active) users. Insights from this work should help users, system designers, and policy makers understand and make long-term design choices in online content creation systems.

The Semantic Web provides access to an increasing amount of structured information in a wide variety of domains. Information overload due to the large amount of structured data is as much a problem as on the traditional Web. To solve this problem, ample research has been proposed on Semantic Web data retrieval techniques and after more than a decade of research in this domain it is now reasonable to consider the questions: is the field of Semantic Web data retrieval making progress? What are the directions that have been taken? and what are some of the promising significant directions to pursue future research? To answer these questions, we review the state-of-the-art Semantic Web data retrieval techniques and define a taxonomy of these techniques to classify the ongoing research and find potential future research directions.

We examine the cold-start recommendation task in an online retail setting for users who have not yet purchased (or interacted in a meaningful way with) any available items but who have granted access to limited side information, such as basic demographic data (gender, age, location) or social network information (Facebook friends or page likes). We formalize neighborhood-based methods for cold-start collaborative filtering in a generalized matrix algebra framework that does not require purchase data for target users when their side information is available. In real-data experiments with 30,000 users who purchased 80,000+ books and had 9,000,000+ Facebook friends and 6,000,000+ page likes, we show that using Facebook page likes for cold-start recommendation yields up to a 3-fold improvement in mean average precision (mAP) and up to 6-fold improvements in Precision@k and Recall@k compared to most-popular-item, demographic, and Facebook friend cold-start recommenders. These results demonstrate the substantial predictive power of social network content, and its significant utility in a challenging problem - recommendation for cold-start users.

Twitter, or the world of 140 characters poses serious challenges to the efficacy of topic models on short, messy text. While topic models such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) have a long history of successful application to news articles and academic abstracts, they are often less coherent when applied to microblog content like Twitter. In this paper, we investigate methods to improve topics learned from Twitter content without modifying the basic machinery of LDA; we achieve this through various pooling schemes that aggregate tweets in a data preprocessing step for LDA. We empirically establish that a novel method of tweet pooling by hashtags leads to a vast improvement in a variety of measures for topic coherence across three diverse Twitter datasets in comparison to an unmodified LDA baseline and a variety of pooling schemes. An additional contribution of automatic hashtag labeling further improves on the hashtag pooling results for a subset of metrics. Overall, these two novel schemes lead to significantly improved LDA topic models on Twitter content.

This paper examines the problem of social collaborative filtering (CF) to recommend items of interest to users in a social network setting. Unlike standard CF algorithms using relatively simple user and item features, recommendation in social networks poses the more complex problem of learning user preferences from a rich and complex set of user profile and interaction information. Many existing social CF methods have extended traditional CF matrix factorization, but have overlooked important aspects germane to the social setting. We propose a unified framework for social CF matrix factorization by introducing novel objective functions for training. Our new objective functions have three key features that address main drawbacks of existing approaches: (a) we fully exploit feature-based user similarity, (b) we permit direct learning of user-to-user information diffusion, and (c) we leverage co-preference (dis)agreement between two users to learn restricted areas of common interest. We evaluate these new social CF objectives, comparing them to each other and to a variety of (social) CF baselines, and analyze user behavior on live user trials in a custom-developed Facebook App involving data collected over five months from over 100 App users and their 37,000+ friends.