Cryptocurrency has been subject to illicit activities probably more often than traditional financial assets due to the pseudo-anonymous nature of its transacting entities. An ideal detection model is expected to achieve all three critical properties of early detection, good interpretability, and versatility for various illicit activities. However, existing solutions cannot meet all these requirements, as most of them heavily rely on deep learning without interpretability and are only available for retrospective analysis of a specific illicit type. To tackle all these challenges, we propose Intention Monitor for early malice detection in Bitcoin, where the on-chain record data for a certain address are much scarcer than other cryptocurrency platforms. We first define asset transfer paths with the Decision Tree based feature Selection and Complement to build different feature sets for different malice types. Then, the Status/Action Proposal module and the Intention-VAE module generate the status, action, intent-snippet, and hidden intent-snippet embedding. With all these modules, our model is highly interpretable and can detect various illegal activities. Moreover, well-designed loss functions further enhance the prediction speed and the model’s interpretability. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art methods. Furthermore, additional case studies justify that our model not only explains existing illicit patterns but also can find new suspicious characters.

With the boom of cryptocurrency and its concomitant financial risk concerns, detecting fraudulent behaviors and associated malicious addresses has been drawing significant research effort. Most existing studies, however, rely on the full history features or full-fledged address transaction networks, both of which are unavailable in the problem of early malicious address detection and therefore failing them for the task. To detect fraudulent behaviors of malicious addresses in the early stage, we present Evolve Path Tracer, which consists of Evolve Path Encoder LSTM, Evolve Path Graph GCN, and Hierarchical Survival Predictor. Specifically, in addition to the general address features, we propose Asset Transfer Paths and corresponding path graphs to characterize early transaction patterns. Furthermore, since transaction patterns change rapidly in the early stage, we propose Evolve Path Encoder LSTM and Evolve Path Graph GCN to encode asset transfer path and path graph under an evolving structure setting. Hierarchical Survival Predictor then predicts addresses' labels with high scalability and efficiency. We investigate the effectiveness and generalizability of Evolve Path Tracer on three real-world malicious address datasets. Our experimental results demonstrate that Evolve Path Tracer outperforms the state-of-the-art methods. Extensive scalability experiments demonstrate the model's adaptivity under a dynamic prediction setting.

Student performance prediction is critical to online education. It can benefit many downstream tasks on online learning platforms, such as estimating dropout rates, facilitating strategic intervention, and enabling adaptive online learning. Interactive online question pools provide students with interesting interactive questions to practice their knowledge in online education. However, little research has been done on student performance prediction in interactive online question pools. Existing work on student performance prediction targets at online learning platforms with predefined course curriculum and accurate knowledge labels like MOOC platforms, but they are not able to fully model knowledge evolution of students in interactive online question pools. In this paper, we propose a novel approach using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to achieve better student performance prediction in interactive online question pools. Specifically, we model the relationship between students and questions using student interactions to construct the student-interaction-question network and further present a new GNN model, called R2GCN, which intrinsically works for the heterogeneous networks, to achieve generalizable student performance prediction in interactive online question pools. We evaluate the effectiveness of our approach on a real-world dataset consisting of 104,113 mouse trajectories generated in the problem-solving process of over 4,000 students on 1,631 questions. The experiment results show that our approach can achieve a much higher accuracy of student performance prediction than both traditional machine learning approaches and GNN models.

The PART-WHOLE relationship routinely finds itself in many disciplines, ranging from collaborative teams, crowdsourcing, autonomous systems to networked systems. From the algorithmic perspective, the existing work has primarily focused on predicting the outcomes of the whole and parts, by either separate models or linear joint models, which assume the outcome of the parts has a linear and independent effect on the outcome of the whole. In this paper, we propose a joint predictive method named PAROLE to simultaneously and mutually predict the part and whole outcomes. The proposed method offers two distinct advantages over the existing work. First (Model Generality), we formulate joint PART-WHOLE outcome prediction as a generic optimization problem, which is able to encode a variety of complex relationships between the outcome of the whole and parts, beyond the linear independence assumption. Second (Algorithm Efficacy), we propose an effective and efficient block coordinate descent algorithm, which is able to find the coordinate-wise optimum with a linear complexity in both time and space. Extensive empirical evaluations on real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed PAROLE (1) leads to consistent prediction performance improvement by modeling the non-linear part-whole relationship as well as part-part interdependency, and (2) scales linearly in terms of the size of the training dataset.