Accurately estimating package delivery time is essential to the logistics industry, which enables reasonable work allocation and on-time service guarantee. This becomes even more necessary in mixed logistics scenarios where couriers handle a high volume of delivery and a smaller number of pickup simultaneously. However, most of the related works treat the pickup and delivery patterns on couriers' decision behavior equally, neglecting that the pickup has a greater impact on couriers' decision-making compared to the delivery due to its tighter time constraints. In such context, we have three main challenges: 1) multiple spatiotemporal factors are intricately interconnected, significantly affecting couriers' delivery behavior; 2) pickups have stricter time requirements but are limited in number, making it challenging to model their effects on couriers' delivery process; 3) couriers' spatial mobility patterns are critical determinants of their delivery behavior, but have been insufficiently explored. To deal with these, we propose TransPDT, a Transformer-based multi-task package delivery time prediction model. We first employ the Transformer encoder architecture to capture the spatio-temporal dependencies of couriers' historical travel routes and pending package sets. Then we design the pattern memory to learn the patterns of pickup in the imbalanced dataset via attention mechanism. We also set the route prediction as an auxiliary task of delivery time prediction, and incorporate the prior courier spatial movement regularities in prediction. Extensive experiments on real industry-scale datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method. A system based on TransPDT is deployed internally in JD Logistics to track more than 2000 couriers handling hundreds of thousands of packages per day in Beijing, and the average daily delivery timely rate of deployed stations is 0.68% higher than the non-deployed stations.

In logistics service, the delivery timely rate is a key experience indicator, which is highly essential to the competitive advantage of express companies. Prediction on it enables intervention on couriers with low predicted results in advance, thus ensuring employee productivity and customer satisfaction. Currently, few related works focus on couriers’ level delivery timely rate prediction, and there are complex spatial correlations between couriers and road districts in the express scenario, which makes traditional real-time prediction approaches hard to utilize. To deal with this, we propose a deep spatial-temporal neural network, RCCNet to model spatial-temporal correlations. Specifically, we adopt Node2vec, which can encode the road network-based graph directly to capture spatial correlations between road districts. Further, we calculate couriers’ historical time-series similarity to build a graph and employ graph convolutional networks to capture the correlation between couriers. We also leverage historical sequential information with long short-term memory networks. We conduct experiments with real-world express datasets. Compared with other competitive baseline methods widely used in industry, the experiment results demonstrate its superior performance over multiple baselines.

The fastest route search, which is to find a path with the shortest travel time when the user initiates a query, has become one of the most important services in many map applications. To enhance the user experience of travel, it is necessary to achieve accurate and real-time route search. However, traffic conditions are changing dynamically, and the frequent occurrence of traffic congestion may greatly increase travel time. Thus, it is challenging to achieve the above goal. To deal with it, we present a congestion-aware spatio-temporal graph convolutional network-based A* search algorithm for the task of fastest route search. We first identify a sequence of consecutive congested traffic conditions as a traffic congestion event. Then, we propose a spatio-temporal graph convolutional network that jointly models the congestion events and changing travel time to capture their complex spatio-temporal correlations, which can predict the future travel-time information of each road segment as the basis of route planning. Further, we design a path-aided neural network to achieve effective origin-destination (OD) shortest travel-time estimation by encoding the complex relationships between OD pairs and their corresponding fastest paths. Finally, the cost function in the A* algorithm is set by fusing the output results of the two components, which is used to guide the route search. Our experimental results on the two real-world datasets show the superior performance of the proposed method.

Prediction of couriers' delivery timely rates in advance is essential to the logistics industry, enabling companies to take preemptive measures to ensure the normal operation of delivery services. This becomes even more critical during anomaly conditions like the epidemic outbreak, during which couriers' delivery timely rate will decline markedly and fluctuates significantly. Existing studies pay less attention to the logistics scenario. Moreover, many works focusing on prediction tasks in anomaly scenarios fail to explicitly model abnormal events, e.g., treating external factors equally with other features, resulting in great information loss. Further, since some anomalous events occur infrequently, traditional data-driven methods perform poorly in these scenarios. To deal with them, we propose a deep spatial-temporal attention model, named DeepSTA. To be specific, to avoid information loss, we design an anomaly spatio-temporal learning module that employs a recurrent neural network to model incident information. Additionally, we utilize Node2vec to model correlations between road districts, and adopt graph neural networks and long short-term memory to capture the spatial-temporal dependencies of couriers. To tackle the issue of insufficient training data in abnormal circumstances, we propose an anomaly pattern attention module that adopts a memory network for couriers' anomaly feature patterns storage via attention mechanisms. The experiments on real-world logistics datasets during the COVID-19 outbreak in 2022 show the model outperforms the best baselines by 12.11% in MAE and 13.71% in MSE, demonstrating its superior performance over multiple competitive baselines.

Improving logistics efficiency is a challenging task in logistic systems, since planning the vehicle routes highly relies on the changing traffic conditions and diverse demand scenarios. However, most existing approaches either neglect the dynamic traffic environment or adopt manually designed rules, which fails to efficiently find a high-quality routing strategy. In this paper, we present a novel artificial intelligence (AI) based framework for logistic systems. This framework can simulate the spatio-temporal traffic conditions to form a dynamic environment in a data-driven manner. Under such a simulated environment, it adopts deep reinforcement learning techniques to intelligently generate the optimized routing strategy. Meanwhile, we also design an interactive frontend to visualize the simulated environment and routing strategies, which help operators evaluate the task performance. We will showcase the results of AI-based simulation and optimization in our demonstration.

Traffic congestion has a negative impact on our daily life. Predicting the trend of traffic congestion can provide a valuable guideline to address such problems. Most existing approaches focus on the tasks of predicting traffic volume or traffic speed, which do not effectively address the challenges of traffic congestion prediction. First, traffic congestion exhibits daily and weekly temporal patterns, but these patterns are not strictly the same, which indicates complicated long-term periodicity. Second, traffic congestion sparsely distributes over different periods of time, which leads to complex short-term and mid-term temporal dependencies. Third, since traffic congestion will propagate to adjacent road segments over time, it exhibits complex spatio-temporal correlations. To address them, we propose a periodic shift and event-aware spatio-temporal graph convolutional network for traffic congestion prediction. Specifically, we propose to capture the differences and similarities of long-term periodic temporal patterns to handle the complicated long-term periodicity. To effectively capture short-term and mid-term temporal dependencies, we regard a continuous time sequence of the congested condition as a traffic congestion event, and then adopt the widely-used long short-term memory model to learn the sequential dependencies of traffic congestion events. Finally, we integrate the graph convolutional network into the modeling of temporal dependencies to capture the complex spatio-temporal correlations. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our model. In addition, we deploy our model in production at Amap, and it achieves great performance improvement in terms of the F1-score compared to the production baseline. This confirms that our model is a practical solution for real-world congestion prediction services.

Frequent traffic congestion has a detrimental effect on our travel experience and the overall quality of urban life. Accurate prediction of traffic congestion plays a pivotal role in alleviating the congestion problem. However, existing traffic prediction approaches primarily focus on extracting its local changing patterns, overlooking the importance of incorporating global dynamic patterns. This presents three challenges: 1) Complicated spatial and temporal information exists in local (microscopic) traffic patterns; 2) The propagation and dissipation patterns of global (macroscopic) traffic congestion exhibit complex dynamics across time and space; 3) Modeling the interactions between macro and micro changing patterns of congestion remains unknown. In this paper, we present a novel framework for traffic congestion prediction that integrates microscopic and macroscopic cross-scale spatiotemporal modeling. Our approach utilizes contagion dynamics to characterize congestion propagation and recovery at the network-wide scale. Additionally, we employ a spatio-temporal graph neural network to capture local traffic patterns. A key contribution is the introduction of a differentiable micro-macro transformation mechanism, enabling the aggregation of microscopic states into macroscopic ones in a differentiable manner during model training. Further, we utilize the knowledge derived from macro contagion dynamics to constrain the micro traffic patterns by employing the physics-informed neural network. Experiments on three real-world datasets of traffic congestion demonstrate that our prediction model consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines.

Pick-up and delivery (PD) services such as online food ordering are playing an increasingly important role in serving people's daily demands. Accurate PD route prediction (PDRP) is important for service providers to efficiently schedule riders to improve service quality. It is crucial to model the decision-making process behind the route choice of riders for PDRP. Recent years have witnessed the success of utilizing imitation learning (IL) to model user decision-making process. Therefore, we propose to deploy an IL framework to solve the PDRP problem. However, there still exist three main challenges: (1) the rider's route decision is affected by multi-source and heterogeneous features and the complex relationships among these features make it hard to explore how they influence the rider's route decision-making; (2) the large route decision-making space make it easy to explore and predict unreasonable routes; (3) the rider's personalized preference is important in modeling the route decision-making process but cannot be fully explored. To tackle the above challenges, we propose ILRoute, a Graph-based imitation learning method for PDRP. ILRoute utilizes a multi-graph neural network (multi-GNN) to extract the multi-source and heterogeneous features and model their complex relationships. To address the large route decision-making space, ILRoute introduces a mobility regularity-aware constraint as prior route choice knowledge to reduce the exploration route decision-making space. To model the personalized preferences of the rider, ILRoute utilizes a personalized constraint mechanism to enhance the personalization of the rider's route decision-making process. Offline experiments conducted on three real-world datasets and online comparisons demonstrate the superiority of our proposed model.

Travel time estimation (TTE) is a crucial task in intelligent transportation systems, which has been widely used in navigation and route planning. In recent years, several deep learning frameworks have been proposed to capture the dynamic features of road segments or intersections for travel time estimation. However, most existing works do not consider the joint features of the intersections and road segments. Moreover, most deep neural networks for TTE are designed based on empirical knowledge. Since the independent and joint features of intersections and road segments commonly vary with different datasets, the empirical deterministic neural architectures have limited adaptability to different scenarios. To tackle the above problems, we propose a novel automated deep learning framework, namely Automated Spatio-Temporal Dual Graph Convolutional Networks (Auto-STDGCN), for travel time estimation. Specifically, we propose to construct the node-wise graph and edge-wise graph to characterize the spatio-temporal features of intersections and road segments, respectively. In order to capture the joint spatio-temporal correlations of the dual graphs, a hierarchical neural architecture search approach is introduced, whose search space is composed of internal and external search space. In the internal search space, spatial graph convolution and temporal convolution operations are adopted to capture the respective spatio-temporal correlations of the dual graphs. Further, we design the external search space including the node-wise and edge-wise graph convolution operations from the internal architecture search to capture the interaction patterns between the intersections and road segments. We evaluate our proposed model Auto-STDGCN on three real-world datasets, which demonstrates that our model is significantly superior to the state-of-the-art methods. In addition, we also conduct case studies to visualize and explain the neural architectures learned by our model.

Traffic congestion incurs long delay in travel time, which seriously affects our daily travel experiences. Exploring why traffic congestion occurs is significantly important to effectively address the problem of traffic congestion and improve user experience. Traditional approaches to mine the congestion causes depend on human efforts, which is time consuming and cost-intensive. Hence, we aim at discovering the known and unknown causes of traffic congestion in a systematic way. However, to achieve it, there are three challenges: (1) traffic congestion is affected by several factors with complex spatio-temporal relations; (2) there are a few samples of congestion data with known causes due to the limitation of human label; (3) more unknown congestion causes are unexplored since several factors contribute to traffic congestion. To address above challenges, we design a congestion cause discovery system consisting of two modules: (1) congestion feature extraction module, which extracts the important features distinguishing between different causes of congestion; and (2) congestion cause discovery module, which designs a deep semi-supervised learning based framework to discover the causes of traffic congestion with limited labeled data. Specifically, in pre-training stage, it first leverages a few labeled data as prior knowledge to pre-train the model. Then, in clustering stage, we propose two different clustering methods to discover the congestion causes. For the first clustering method, we extend the classic deep embedded clustering model to produce clusters via soft assignment. For the second one, we iteratively usek-means to group the latent features extracted from the pre-trained model, and use the cluster results as pseudo-labels to fine-tune the network. Extensive experiments show that the performance of our methods is superior to the state-of-the-art baselines, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed cause discovery system. Additionally, our system is deployed and used in the practical production environment at Amap.

In real-world express systems, couriers need to satisfy not only the delivery demands but also the pick-up demands of customers. Delivery and pickup tasks are usually mixed together within integrated routing plans. Such a mixed routing problem can be abstracted and formulated as Vehicle Routing Problem with Mixed Delivery and Pickup (VRPMDP), which is an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem. To solve VRPMDP, there are three major challenges as below. (a) Even though successive pickup and delivery tasks are independent to accomplish, the inter-influence between choosing pickup task or delivery task to deal with still exists. (b) Due to the two-way flow of goods between the depot and customers, the loading rate of vehicles leaving the depot affects routing decisions. (c) The proportion of deliveries and pickups will change due to the complex demand situation in real-world scenarios, which requires robustness of the algorithm. To solve the challenges above, we design an encoder-decoder based framework to generate high-quality and robust VRPMDP solutions. First, we consider a VRPMDP instance as a graph and utilize a GNN encoder to extract the feature of the instance effectively. The detailed routing solutions are further decoded as a sequence by the decoder with attention mechanism. Second, we propose a Coordinated Decision of Loading and Routing (CDLR) mechanism to determine the loading rate dynamically after the vehicle returns to the depot, thus avoiding the influence of improper loading rate settings. Finally, the model equipped with a GNN encoder and CDLR simultaneously can adapt to the changes in the proportion of deliveries and pickups. We conduct the experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of our model. The experiments show that our method achieves desirable results and generalization ability.

Traffic prediction is the cornerstone of intelligent transportation system. Accurate traffic forecasting is essential for the applications of smart cities, i.e., intelligent traffic management and urban planning. Although various methods are proposed for spatio-temporal modeling, they ignore the dynamic characteristics of correlations among locations on road network. Meanwhile, most Recurrent Neural Network based works are not efficient enough due to their recurrent operations. Additionally, there is a severe lack of fair comparison among different methods on the same datasets. To address the above challenges, in this article, we propose a novel traffic prediction framework, named Dynamic Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network (DGCRN). In DGCRN, hyper-networks are designed to leverage and extract dynamic characteristics from node attributes, while the parameters of dynamic filters are generated at each time step. We filter the node embeddings and then use them to generate dynamic graph, which is integrated with pre-defined static graph. As far as we know, we are first to employ a generation method to model fine topology of dynamic graph at each time step. Furthermore, to enhance efficiency and performance, we employ a training strategy for DGCRN by restricting the iteration number of decoder during forward and backward propagation. Finally, a reproducible standardized benchmark and a brand new representative traffic dataset are opened for fair comparison and further research. Extensive experiments on three datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms 15 baselines consistently. Source codes are available at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/Traffic-Benchmark .

Traffic prediction plays an important role in many intelligent transportation systems. Many existing works design static neural network architecture to capture complex spatio-temporal correlations, which is hard to adapt to different datasets. Although recent neural architecture search approaches have addressed this problem, it still adopts a coarse-grained search with pre-defined and fixed components in the search space for spatio-temporal modeling. In this paper, we propose a novel neural architecture search framework, entitled AutoSTS, for automated spatio-temporal synchronous modeling in traffic prediction. To be specific, we design a graph neural network (GNN) based architecture search module to capture localized spatio-temporal correlations, where multiple graphs built from different perspectives are jointly utilized to find a better message passing way for mining such correlations. Further, we propose a convolutional neural network (CNN) based architecture search module to capture temporal dependencies with various ranges, where gated temporal convolutions with different kernel sizes and convolution types are designed in search space. Extensive experiments on six public datasets demonstrate that our model can achieve 4%-10% improvements compared with other methods.

Traffic congestion incurs long delay in travel time, which seriously affects our daily travel experiences. Exploring why traffic congestion occurs is significantly important to effectively address the problem of traffic congestion and improve user experience. Traditional approaches to mine the congestion causes depend on human efforts, which is time consuming and cost-intensive. Hence, we aim to discover the known and unknown causes of traffic congestion in a systematic way. However, to achieve it, there are three challenges: 1) traffic congestion is affected by several factors with complex spatio-temporal relations; 2) the amount of congestion data with known causes is small due to the limitation of human label; 3) more unknown congestion causes are unexplored since several factors contribute to traffic congestion. To address above challenges, we design a congestion cause discovery system consisting of two modules: 1) congestion feature extraction, which extracts the important features influencing congestion; and 2) congestion cause discovery, which utilize a deep semi-supervised learning based method to discover the causes of traffic congestion with limited labeled causes. Specifically, it first leverages a few labeled data as prior knowledge to pre-train the model. Then, the k-means algorithm is performed to produce the clusters. Extensive experiments show that the performance of our proposed method is superior to the baselines. Additionally, our system is deployed and used in the practical production environment at Amap.

Large-scale vehicle trajectories bring great benefits in understanding urban mobility, and can be used to promote a wide range of applications in building intelligent transportation systems. Traditional approaches cannot recover the trajectories of all the vehicles on the roads since they are based on partial trajectory data. To address it, we study the all-vehicle trajectory recovery based on traffic camera video data. However, there are two challenges in this study. First, the quality of the images captured by traffic cameras is unbalanced, so it is hard to identify the same vehicles. Second, the traffic camera observation data are sparse due to the incompleteness of the traffic cameras and possible vehicle miss from the traffic cameras. To deal with these challenges, we design a novel system to recover the vehicle trajectory with the granularity of the road intersection. In this system, we propose an iterative framework to jointly optimize the vehicle re-identification and trajectory recovery tasks. In the vehicle re-identification task, we propose an effective strategy to guide the vehicle clustering based on visual features and the spatio-temporal constraint features updated by the trajectory discovery task. In the trajectory recovery task, we model the spatial and temporal relations as well as the vehicle miss problem by a probabilistic approach to recover the trajectories. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our framework outperforms the existing state-of-art solutions. Finally, our system is deployed in practical applications of SenseTime, China, including traffic congestion analysis and traffic signal control.

It is essential to predict crowd flow precisely in a city, which is practically partitioned into irregular regions based on road networks and functionality. However, prior works mainly focus on grid-based crowd flow prediction, where a city is divided into many regular grids. Although Convolutional Neural Netwok (CNN) is powerful to capture spatial dependence from grid-based Euclidean data, it fails to tackle non-Euclidean data, which reflect the correlations among irregular regions. Besides, prior works fail to jointly capture the hierarchical spatio-temporal dependence from both regular and irregular regions. Finally, the correlations among regions are time-varying and functionality-related. However, the combination of dynamic and semantic attributes of regions are ignored by related works. To address the above challenges, in this article, we propose a novel model to tackle the flow prediction task for irregular regions. First, we employ CNN and Graph Neural Network (GNN) to capture micro and macro spatial dependence among grid-based regions and irregular regions, respectively. Further, we think highly of the dynamic inter-region correlations and propose a location-aware and time-aware graph attention mechanism named Semantic Graph Attention Network (Semantic-GAT), based on dynamic node attribute embedding and multi-view graph reconstruction. Extensive experimental results based on two real-life datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms 10 baselines by reducing the prediction error around 8%.

As online video service continues to grow in popularity, video content providers compete hard for more eyeball engagement. Some users visit multiple video sites to enjoy videos of their interest while some visit exclusively one site. However, due to the isolation of data, mining and exploiting user behaviors in multiple video websites remain unexplored so far. In this work, we try to model user preferences in six popular video websites with user viewing records obtained from a large ISP in China. The empirical study shows that users exhibit both consistent cross-site interests as well as site-specific interests. To represent this dichotomous pattern of user preferences, we propose a generative model of Multi-site Probabilistic Factorization (MPF) to capture both the cross-site as well as site-specific preferences. Besides, we discuss the design principle of our model by analyzing the sources of the observed site-specific user preferences, namely, site peculiarity and data sparsity. Through conducting extensive recommendation validation, we show that our MPF model achieves the best results compared to several other state-of-the-art factorization models with significant improvements of F-measure by 12.96, 8.24 and 6.88 percent, respectively. Our findings provide insights on the value of integrating user data from multiple sites, which stimulates collaboration between video service providers.

Today's video streaming market is crowded with various content providers (CPs). For individual CPs, understanding user behavior, in particular how users migrate among different CPs, is crucial for improving users' on-site experience and the CP's chance of success. In this paper, we take a data-driven approach to analyze and model user migration behavior in video streaming, i.e., users switching content provider during active sessions. Based on a large ISP dataset over two months (6 major content providers, 3.8 million users, and 315 million video requests), we study common migration patterns and reasons of migration. We find that migratory behavior is prevalent: 66% of users switch CPs with an average switching frequency of 13%. In addition, migration behaviors are highly diverse: regardless large or small CPs, they all have dedicated groups of users who like to switch to them for certain types of videos. Regarding reasons of migration, we find CP service quality rarely causes migration, while a few popular videos play a bigger role. Nearly 60% of cross-site migrations are landed to 0.14% top videos. Finally, we validate our findings by building an accurate regression model to predict user migration frequency, and discuss the implications of our results to CPs.

As online video service continues to grow in popularity, video content providers compete hard for more eyeball engagement. Some users visit multiple video sites to enjoy videos of their interest while some visit exclusively one site. However, due to the isolation of data, mining and exploiting user behaviors in multiple video websites remain unexplored so far. In this work, we try to model user preferences in six popular video websites with user viewing records obtained from a large ISP in China. The empirical study shows that users exhibit both consistent cross-site interests as well as site-specific interests. To represent this dichotomous pattern of user preferences, we propose a generative model of Multi-site Probabilistic Factorization (MPF) to capture both the cross-site as well as site-specific preferences. Besides, we discuss the design principle of our model by analyzing the sources of the observed site-specific user preferences, namely, site peculiarity and data sparsity. Through conducting extensive recommendation validation, we show that our MPF model achieves the best results compared to several other state-of-the-art factorization models with significant improvements of F-measure by 12.96%, 8.24% and 6.88%, respectively. Our findings provide insights on the value of integrating user data from multiple sites, which stimulates collaboration between video service providers.