One of the most significant challenges in combating against the spread of infectious diseases was the difficulty in estimating the true magnitude of infections. Unreported infections could drive up disease spread, making it very hard to accurately estimate the infectivity of the pathogen, therewith hampering our ability to react effectively. Despite the use of surveillance-based methods such as serological studies, identifying the true magnitude is still challenging. This paper proposes an information theoretic approach for accurately estimating the number of total infections. Our approach is built on top of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) based models, which are commonly used in epidemiology and for estimating such infections. We show how we can help such models to better compute the number of total infections and identify the parametrization by which we need the fewest bits to describe the observed dynamics of reported infections. Our experiments on COVID-19 spread show that our approach leads to not only substantially better estimates of the number of total infections but also better forecasts of infections than standard model calibration based methods. We additionally show how our learned parametrization helps in modeling more accurate what-if scenarios with non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our approach provides a general method for improving epidemic modeling which is applicable broadly.

Evacuation planning is an essential part of disaster management where the goal is to relocate people under imminent danger to safety. However, finding jointly optimal evacuation routes and a schedule that minimizes the average evacuation time or evacuation completion time, is a computationally hard problem. As a result, large-scale evacuation routing and scheduling continues to be a challenge. In this paper, we present a game-theoretic approach to tackle this problem. We start by formulating a strategic routing and scheduling game, named the Evacuation Game: Routing and Scheduling (EGRES), where players choose their route and time of departure. We show that: (i) every instance of EGRES has at least one pure strategy Nash equilibrium, and (ii) an optimal outcome in an instance will always be an equilibrium in that instance. We then provide bounds on how bad an equilibrium can be compared to an optimal outcome. Additionally, we present a polynomial-time algorithm, the Sequential Action Algorithm (SAA), for finding equilibria in a given instance under a special condition. We use Virginia Beach City in Virginia, and Harris County in Houston, Texas as study areas and construct two EGRES instances. Our results show that, by utilizing SAA, we can efficiently find equilibria in these instances that have social objective close to the optimal value.

While the worst of COVID-19 pandemic has most likely passed us, an occurrence of equally devastating global pandemic or regional epidemic cannot be ruled out in future. H1N1, Zika, SARS, MERS, and Ebola outbreaks over the past few decades have sharply illustrated our enormous vulnerability to emerging infectious diseases. While the data mining research community has demonstrated increased interest in epidemiological applications, much is still left to be desired. For example, there is an urgent need to develop sound theoretical principles and transformative computational approaches that will allow us to address the escalating threat of current and future pandemics. Data mining and knowledge discovery have an important role to play in this regard. Different aspects of infectious disease modeling, analysis, and control have traditionally been studied within the confines of individual disciplines, such as mathematical epidemiology and public health, and data mining and machine learning. Coupled with increasing data generation across multiple domains/sources (e.g., wastewater surveillance, electronic medical records, and social media), there is a clear need for analyzing them to inform public health policies and outcomes timely. Recent advances in disease surveillance and forecasting, and initiatives such as the CDC Flu Challenge, CDC COVID-19 Forecasting Hub etc., have brought these disciplines closer together. On the one hand, public health practitioners seek to use novel datasets, such as Safegraph, Unacast, and Google mobility data, and techniques like Graph Neural Networks. On the other hand, researchers from data mining and machine learning develop novel tools for solving many fundamental problems in the public health policy planning and decision-making process, leveraging novel datasets (e.g., COVID-19 behavioral health surveys, contact tracing trees, and satellite images of urban streets) and combining them with more traditional time series information (e.g., surveillance, hospitalization, and death records). We believe the next stage of advances will result from closer collaborations between these two groups, which is the main objective of epiDAMIK.

Heterogeneous agent-based models (HABMs) can simulate the dynamics of multiple types of entities and their interactions on contact networks. In recent years, they have gathered great interest and are widely applied in multiple fields, such as personalized recommendations, publication ranking, and epidemic modeling. Nevertheless, conventional HABMs on graphs can only capture pair-wise interactions between agents but fail to capture the more complex dynamics of group interactions (e.g., multiple people in the same location simultaneously), consequently leading to suboptimal performance. To address this, we propose using hypergraphs to capture such group interactions better and extend the current graph-based HABMs to hypergraphs. Specifically, we use MRSA (Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, a kind of infectious disease acquired by patients during treatment at healthcare facilities) spread in the University of Virginia hospital as an example to showcase how we extend an existing graph-based HABM, Graph-HeterSIS, to a hypergraph-based HABM (H2ABM), Hypergraph-HeterSIS. We show how the hyper-graphs can capture the structural difference between contacts before and during the first wave of COVID-19 outbreak in Virginia better than graphs. Our experiments show that H2ABM better captures the underlying group interactions and better fits and forecasts MRSA cases.

The epiDAMIK workshop serves as a platform for advancing the utilization of data-driven methods in the fields of epidemiology and public health research. These fields have seen relatively limited exploration of data-driven approaches compared to other disciplines. Therefore, our primary objective is to foster the growth and recognition of the emerging discipline of data-driven and computational epidemiology, providing a valuable avenue for sharing state-of-the-art research and ongoing projects. The workshop also seeks to showcase results that are not typically presented at major computing conferences, including valuable insights gained from practical experiences. Our target audience encompasses researchers in AI, machine learning, and data science from both academia and industry, who have a keen interest in applying their work to epidemiological and public health contexts. Additionally, we welcome practitioners from mathematical epidemiology and public health, as their expertise and contributions greatly enrich the discussions. Homepage: https://epidamik.github.io/

We consider the setting of cascades that result from contagion dynamics on large realistic contact networks. We address the question of whether the structural properties of a (partially) observed cascade can characterize the contagion scenario and identify the interventions that might be in effect. Using epidemic spread as a concrete example, we study how social interventions such as compliance in social distancing, extent (and efficacy) of vaccination, and the transmissibility of disease can be inferred. The techniques developed are more generally applicable to other contagions as well.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a type of bacteria resistant to certain antibiotics, making it difficult to prevent MRSA infections. Among decades of efforts to conquer infectious diseases caused by MRSA, many studies have been proposed to estimate the causal effects of close contact (treatment) on MRSA infection (outcome) from observational data. In this problem, the treatment assignment mechanism plays a key role as it determines the patterns of missing counterfactuals --- the fundamental challenge of causal effect estimation. Most existing observational studies for causal effect learning assume that the treatment is assigned individually for each unit. However, on many occasions, the treatments are pairwisely assigned for units that are connected in graphs, i.e., the treatments of different units are entangled. Neglecting the entangled treatments can impede the causal effect estimation. In this paper, we study the problem of causal effect estimation with treatment entangled in a graph. Despite a few explorations for entangled treatments, this problem still remains challenging due to the following challenges: (1) the entanglement brings difficulties in modeling and leveraging the unknown treatment assignment mechanism; (2) there may exist hidden confounders which lead to confounding biases in causal effect estimation; (3) the observational data is often time-varying. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel method NEAT, which explicitly leverages the graph structure to model the treatment assignment mechanism, and mitigates confounding biases based on the treatment assignment modeling. We also extend our method into a dynamic setting to handle time-varying observational data. Experiments on both synthetic datasets and a real-world MRSA dataset validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, and provide insights for future applications.

Synthetic data is gaining rapid importance in many application domains due to privacy issues, bias, lack, or simply unavailability of real data. It is important that the synthetic data be a good representation of real data for successfully completing the task at hand. Thus, devising characteristic validation metrics is crucial and remains an open problem in many domains (e.g., image generation). Good validation metrics must be able to disentangle the differences between the quality and the variability coverage of the synthetic data. We propose to use a 3-dimensional metric (precision α, recall β, coverage γ) to describe the fidelity and diversity of the synthetic data. In this paper, we improve on existing definitions of precision, recall, and coverage to extend to large scale time series data. Traditional nearest neighbor manifolds from the literature are replaced by unsupervised learning techniques such as clustering to deal with large scale fine resolution time series while computing the validation metrics. The proposed metrics are employed to validate synthetic data in the domain of residential energy demand. In addition, we extend these definitions to datasets that have a natural hierarchical structure. We propose a hierarchical data-tree model in which precision, recall, and coverage can be computed at multiple inherent (and/or custom) levels of groupings of the data.

Evacuation planning is an essential part of disaster management where the goal is to relocate people in a safe and orderly manner. Existing research has shown that such problems are hard to approximate and current methods are difficult to scale to real-life applications. We introduce a notion of fairness and two related objectives while studying evacuation planning, namely: minimizing maximum inconvenience and minimizing average inconvenience. We show that both problems are not just NP-hard to solve exactly, but in fact are NP-hard to approximate. On the positive side, we present a heuristic optimization method MIP-LNS, based on the well-known Large Neighborhood Search framework, that can find good approximate solutions in reasonable amount of time. We also consider a multi-objective problem where the goal is to minimize both objectives and solve it using MIP-LNS. We use real-world road network and population data from Harris County in Houston, Texas (a region that needed large-scale evacuations in the past), and apply MIP-LNS to calculate evacuation plans for the area. We compare the quality of the plans in terms of evacuation efficiency and fairness. We find that the solutions to the multi-objective problem are superior in both of these aspects. We also perform statistical tests to show that the solutions are significantly different.

Similar to previous iterations, the epiDAMIK @ KDD workshop is a forum to promote data driven approaches in epidemiology and public health research. Even after the devastating impact of COVID-19 pandemic, data driven approaches are not as widely studied in epidemiology, as they are in other spaces. We aim to promote and raise the profile of the emerging research area of data-driven and computational epidemiology, and create a venue for presenting state-of-the-art and in-progress results-in particular, results that would otherwise be difficult to present at a major data mining conference, including lessons learnt in the 'trenches'. The current COVID-19 pandemic has only showcased the urgency and importance of this area. Our target audience consists of data mining and machine learning researchers from both academia and industry who are interested in epidemiological and public-health applications of their work, and practitioners from the areas of mathematical epidemiology and public health. Homepage: https://epidamik.github.io/.

We study allocation of COVID-19 vaccines to individuals based on the structural properties of their underlying social contact network. Using a realistic representation of a social contact network for the Commonwealth of Virginia, we study how a limited number of vaccine doses can be strategically distributed to individuals to reduce the overall burden of the pandemic. We show that allocation of vaccines based on individuals' degree (number of social contacts) and total social proximity time is significantly more effective than the usually used age-based allocation strategy in reducing the number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths. The overall strategy is robust even: (i) if the social contacts are not estimated correctly; (ii) if the vaccine efficacy is lower than expected or only a single dose is given; (iii) if there is a delay in vaccine production and deployment; and (iv) whether or not non-pharmaceutical interventions continue as vaccines are deployed. For reasons of implementability, we have used degree, which is a simple structural measure and can be easily estimated using several methods, including the digital technology available today. These results are significant, especially for resource-poor countries, where vaccines are less available, have lower efficacy, and are more slowly distributed.

We study the role of vaccine acceptance in controlling the spread of COVID-19 in the US using AI-driven agent-based models. Our study uses a 288 million node social contact network spanning all 50 US states plus Washington DC, comprised of 3300 counties, with 12.59 billion daily interactions. The highly-resolved agent-based models use realistic information about disease progression, vaccine uptake, production schedules, acceptance trends, prevalence, and social distancing guidelines. Developing a national model at this resolution that is driven by realistic data requires a complex scalable workflow, model calibration, simulation, and analytics components. Our workflow optimizes the total execution time and helps in improving overall human productivity.This work develops a pipeline that can execute US-scale models and associated workflows that typically present significant big data challenges. Our results show that, when compared to faster and accelerating vaccinations, slower vaccination rates due to vaccine hesitancy cause averted infections to drop from 6.7M to 4.5M, and averted total deaths to drop from 39.4K to 28.2K nationwide. This occurs despite the fact that the final vaccine coverage is the same in both scenarios. Improving vaccine acceptance by 10% in all states increases averted infections from 4.5M to 4.7M (a 4.4% improvement) and total deaths from 28.2K to 29.9K (a 6% increase) nationwide. The analysis also reveals interesting spatio-temporal differences in COVID-19 dynamics as a result of vaccine acceptance. To our knowledge, this is the first national-scale analysis of the effect of vaccine acceptance on the spread of COVID-19, using detailed and realistic agent-based models.

The 4th [email protected] workshop is a forum to discuss new insights into how data mining can play a bigger role in epidemiology and public health research. While the integration of data science methods into epidemiology has significant potential, it remains under studied. We aim to raise the profile of this emerging research area of data-driven and computational epidemiology, and create a venue for presenting state-of-the-art and in-progress results-in particular, results that would otherwise be difficult to present at a major data mining conference, including lessons learnt in the 'trenches'. The current COVID-19 pandemic has only showcased the urgency and importance of this area. Our target audience consists of data mining and machine learning researchers from both academia and industry who are interested in epidemiological and public-health applications of their work, and practitioners from the areas of mathematical epidemiology and public health.

Evacuation planning methods aim to design routes and schedules to relocate people to safety in the event of natural or man-made disasters. The primary goal is to minimize casualties which often requires the evacuation process to be completed as soon as possible. In this paper, we present QueST, an agent-based discrete event queuing network simulation system, and STEERS, an iterative routing algorithm that uses QueST for designing and evaluating large scale evacuation plans in terms of total egress time and congestion/bottlenecks occurring during evacuation. We use the Houston Metropolitan Area, which consists of nine US counties and spans an area of 9,444 square miles as a case study, and compare the performance of STEERS with two existing route planning methods. We find that STEERS is either better or comparable to these methods in terms of total evacuation time and congestion faced by the evacuees. We also analyze the large volume of data generated by the simulation process to gain insights about the scenarios arising from following the evacuation routes prescribed by these methods.

It is well known that physical interdependencies exist between networked civil infrastructures such as transportation and power system networks. In order to analyze complex nonlinear correlations between such networks, datasets pertaining to such real infrastructures are required. However, such data are not readily available due to their proprietary nature. This work proposes a methodology to generate realistic synthetic power distribution networks for a given geographical region. A network generated in this manner is not the actual distribution system, but its functionality is very similar to the real distribution network. The synthetic network connects high voltage substations to individual residential consumers through primary and secondary distribution networks. Here, the distribution network is generated by solving an optimization problem which minimizes the overall length of the network subject to structural and power flow constraints. This work also incorporates identification of long high voltage feeders originating from substations and connecting remotely situated customers in rural geographic locations while maintaining voltage regulation within acceptable limits. The proposed methodology is applied to the state of Virginia and creates synthetic distribution networks which are validated by comparing them to actual power distribution networks at the same location.

Can we infer all the failed components of an infrastructure network, given a sample of reachable nodes from supply nodes? One of the most critical post-disruption processes after a natural disaster is to quickly determine the damage or failure states of critical infrastructure components. However, this is nontrivial, considering that often only a fraction of components may be accessible or observable after a disruptive event. Past work has looked into inferring failed components given point probes, i.e. with a direct sample of failed components. In contrast, we study the harder problem of inferring failed components given partial information of some `serviceable' reachable nodes and a small sample of point probes, being the first often more practical to obtain. We formulate this novel problem using the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle, and then present a greedy algorithm that minimizes MDL cost effectively. We evaluate our algorithm on domain-expert simulations of real networks in the aftermath of an earthquake. Our algorithm successfully identifies failed components, especially the critical ones affecting the overall system performance.

Subgraph counting aims to count occurrences of a template T in a given network G (V, E). It is a powerful graph analysis tool and has found real-world applications in diverse domains. Scaling subgraph counting problems is known to be memory bounded and computationally challenging with exponential complexity. Although scalable parallel algorithms are known for several graph problems such as Triangle Counting and PageRank, this is not common for counting complex subgraphs. Here we address this challenge and study connected acyclic graphs or trees. We propose a novel vectorized subgraph counting algorithm, named SUBGRAPH2VEC, as well as both shared memory and distributed implementations: 1) reducing algorithmic complexity by minimizing neighbor traversal; 2) achieving a highly-vectorized implementation upon linear algebra kernels to significantly improve performance and hardware utilization. 3) SUBGRAPH2VEC improves the overall performance over the state-of-the-art work by orders of magnitude and up to 660x on a single node. 4) SUBGRAPH2VEC in distributed mode can scale up the template size to 20 and maintain good strong scalability. 5) enabling portability to both CPU and GPU.

One fundamental task in network analysis is detecting “hotspots” or “anomalies” in the network; that is, detecting subgraphs where there is significantly more activity than one would expect given historical data or some baseline process. Scan statistics is one popular approach used for anomalous subgraph detection. This methodology involves maximizing a score function over all connected subgraphs, which is a challenging computational problem. A number of heuristics have been proposed for these problems, but they do not provide any quality guarantees. Here, we propose a framework for designing algorithms for optimizing a large class of scan statistics for networks, subject to connectivity constraints. Our algorithms run in time that scales linearly on the size of the graph and depends on a parameter we call the “effective solution size,” while providing rigorous approximation guarantees. In contrast, most prior methods have super-linear running times in terms of graph size. Extensive empirical evidence demonstrates the effectiveness and efficiency of our proposed algorithms in comparison with state-of-the-art methods. Our approach improves on the performance relative to all prior methods, giving up to over 25% increase in the score. Further, our algorithms scale to networks with up to a million nodes, which is 1--2 orders of magnitude larger than all prior applications.

In many applications, such as the Internet and infrastructure networks, nodes fail or get congested dynamically. We study the problem of inferring all the failed nodes, when only a sample of the failures is known, and there exist correlations between node failures/congestion in networks. We formalize this as the GraphStateInf problem, using the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle. We propose the GraphMap algorithm for minimizing the MDL cost, and show that it gives an additive approximation, relative to the optimal. We evaluate our methods on synthetic and real datasets, which includes one from WAZE which gives traffic incident reports for the city of Boston. We find that our method gives promising results in recovering the missing failures.

Graph scan statistics have become popular for event detection in networks. This methodology involves finding connected subgraphs that maximize a certain anomaly function, but maximizing these functions is computationally hard in general. We develop a novel approach for graph scan statistics with connectivity constraints. Our algorithm Approx-MultilinearScan relies on an algebraic technique called multilinear detection, and it improves over prior methods for large networks. We also develop a Pregel-based parallel version of this algorithm in Giraph, MultilinearScanGiraph, that allows us to solve instances with over 40 million edges, which is more than one order of magnitude larger than existing methods.

Given a contact network and coarse-grained diagnostic information like electronic Healthcare Reimbursement Claims (eHRC) data, can we develop efficient intervention policies to control an epidemic? Immunization is an important problem in multiple areas especially epidemiology and public health. However, most existing studies focus on developing pre-emptive strategies assuming prior epidemiological models. In practice, disease spread is usually complicated, hence assuming an underlying model may deviate from true spreading patterns, leading to possibly inaccurate interventions. Additionally, the abundance of health care surveillance data (like eHRC) makes it possible to study data-driven strategies without too many restrictive assumptions. Hence, such an approach can help public-health experts take more practical decisions. In this paper, we take into account propagation log and contact networks for controlling propagation. We formulate the novel and challenging Data-Driven Immunization problem without assuming classical epidemiological models. To solve it, we first propose an efficient sampling approach to align surveillance data with contact networks, then develop an efficient algorithm with the provably approximate guarantee for immunization. Finally, we show the effectiveness and scalability of our methods via extensive experiments on multiple datasets, and conduct case studies on nation-wide real medical surveillance data.

Scan statistics is a popular approach used for detecting “hotspots” and “anomalies” in spatio-temporal and network data. This methodology involves maximizing a score function over all connected subgraphs, which is NP-hard in general. A number of heuristics have been proposed for these problems, but they do not provide any quality guarantees. In this paper, we develop a framework for designing algorithms for optimizing a large class of scan statistics for networks, subject to connectivity constraints. Our algorithms run in time that scales linearly on the size of the graph and depends on a parameter we call the “effective solution size”, while providing rigorous approximation guarantees. In contrast, most prior methods have super-linear running times in terms of graph size. Extensive empirical evidence demonstrates the effectiveness and efficiency of our proposed algorithms in comparison with state-of-the-art methods. Our approach improves on the performance relative to all prior methods, giving up to over 25% increase in the score. Further, our algorithms scale to networks with up to a million nodes, which is 1–2 orders of magnitude larger than all prior applications.

Signed networks remain relatively under explored despite the fact that many real networks are of this kind. Here, we study the problem of subgraph density in signed networks and show connections to the event detection task. Notions of density have been used in prior studies on anomaly detection, but all existing methods have been developed for unsigned networks. We develop the first algorithms for finding dense subgraphs in signed networks using semi-definite programming based rounding. We give rigorous guarantees for our algorithms, and develop a heuristic EGOSCAN which is significantly faster. We evaluate the performance of EGOSCAN for different notions of density, and observe that it performs significantly better than natural adaptations of prior algorithms for unsigned networks. In particular, the improvement in edge density over previous methods is as much as 85% and usually over 50%. These results are consistent across signed and unsigned networks in different domains. The improvement in performance is even more significant for a constrained version of the problem involving finding subgraphs containing a subset of query nodes. We also develop an event detection method for signed and unsigned networks based on subgraph density. We apply this to three different temporal datasets, and show that our method based on EGOSCAN significantly outperforms existing approaches and baseline methods in terms of the precision-recall tradeoff (by as much as 25-50% in some instances).

EMBERS is an anticipatory intelligence system forecasting population-level events in multiple countries of Latin America. A deployed system from 2012, EMBERS has been generating alerts 24x7 by ingesting a broad range of data sources including news, blogs, tweets, machine coded events,currency rates, and food prices. In this paper, we describe our experiences operating EMBERS continuously for nearly 4 years, with specific attention to the discoveries it has enabled, correct as well as missed forecasts, lessons learnt from participating in a forecasting tournament, and our perspectives on the limits of forecasting including ethical considerations.

Given a network with groups, such as a contact-network grouped by ages, which are the best groups to immunize to control the epidemic? Equivalently, how to choose best communities in social media like Facebook to stop rumors from spreading? Immunization is an important problem in multiple different domains like epidemiology, public health, cyber security, and social media. Additionally, clearly immunization at group scale (like schools and communities) is more realistic due to constraints in implementations and compliance (e.g., it is hard to ensure specific individuals take the adequate vaccine). Hence, efficient algorithms for such a “group-based” problem can help public-health experts take more practical decisions. However, most prior work has looked into individual-scale immunization. In this paper, we study the problem of controlling propagation at group scale. We formulate a set of novel Group Immunization problems for multiple natural settings (for both threshold and cascade-based contagion models under both node-level and edge-level interventions) and develop multiple efficient algorithms, including provably approximate solutions. Finally, we show the effectiveness of our methods via extensive experiments on real and synthetic datasets.

Detecting and forecasting civil unrest events (protests, strikes, etc.) is of key interest to social scientists and policy makers because these events can lead to significant societal and cultural changes. We analyze protest dynamics in six countries of Latin America on a daily level, from November 2012 through August 2014, using multiple data sources that capture social, political and economic contexts within which civil unrest occurs. We use logistic regression models with Lasso to select a sparse feature set from our diverse datasets, in order to predict the probability of occurrence of civil unrest events in these countries. The models contain predictors extracted from social media sites (Twitter and blogs) and news sources, in addition to volume of requests to Tor, a widely-used anonymity network. Two political event databases and country-specific exchange rates are also used. Our forecasting models are evaluated using a Gold Standard Report (GSR), which is compiled by an independent group of social scientists and experts on Latin America. The experimental results, measured by F1-scores, are in the range 0.68 to 0.95, and demonstrate the efficacy of using a multi-source approach for predicting civil unrest. Case studies illustrate the insights into unrest events that are obtained with our methods.

Given a network with groups, such as a contact-network grouped by ages, which are the best groups to immunize to control the epidemic? Equivalently, how to best choose communities in social networks like Facebook to stop rumors from spreading? Immunization is an important problem in multiple different domains like epidemiology, public health, cyber security and social media. Additionally, clearly immunization at group scale (like schools and communities) is more realistic due to constraints in implementations and compliance (e.g., it is hard to ensure specific individuals take the adequate vaccine). Hence efficient algorithms for such a "group-based" problem can help public-health experts take more practical decisions. However most prior work has looked into individual-scale immunization. In this paper, we study the problem of controlling propagation at group scale. We formulate novel so-called Group Immunization problems for multiple natural settings (for both threshold and cascade-based contagion models under both node-level and edge-level interventions) and develop multiple efficient algorithms, including provably approximate solutions. Finally, we show the effectiveness of our methods via extensive experiments on real and synthetic datasets.

The largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix of a network (referred to as the spectral radius) is an important metric in its own right. Further, for several models of epidemic spread on networks (e.g., the ‘flu-like’ SIS model), it has been shown that an epidemic dies out quickly if the spectral radius of the graph is below a certain threshold that depends on the model parameters. This motivates a strategy to control epidemic spread by reducing the spectral radius of the underlying network. In this paper, we develop a suite of provable approximation algorithms for reducing the spectral radius by removing the minimum cost set of edges (modeling quarantining) or nodes (modeling vaccinations), with different time and quality tradeoffs. Our main algorithm, GREEDYWALK, is based on the idea of hitting closed walks of a given length, and gives an O(log2 n)-approximation, where n denotes the number of nodes; it also performs much better in practice compared to all prior heuristics proposed for this problem. We further present a novel sparsification method to improve its running time. In addition, we give a new primal-dual based algorithm with an even better approximation guarantee (O(log n)), albeit with slower running time. We also give lower bounds on the worst-case performance of some of the popular heuristics. Finally we demonstrate the applicability of our algorithms and the properties of our solutions via extensive experiments on multiple synthetic and real networks.

As recent pandemics such as SARS and the Swine Flu outbreak have shown, diseases spread very fast in today's interconnected world, making public health an important research area. Some of the basic questions are: How can an outbreak be contained before it becomes an epidemic, and what disease surveillance strategies should be implemented? These problems have been studied traditionally using differential equation methods, which are amenable to analysis and closed form solutions. However, these models are based on complete mixing assumptions, which do not hold for realistic populations, thereby limiting their utility.

We describe the design, implementation, and evaluation of EMBERS, an automated, 24x7 continuous system for forecasting civil unrest across 10 countries of Latin America using open source indicators such as tweets, news sources, blogs, economic indicators, and other data sources. Unlike retrospective studies, EMBERS has been making forecasts into the future since Nov 2012 which have been (and continue to be) evaluated by an independent T&E team (MITRE). Of note, EMBERS has successfully forecast the June 2013 protests in Brazil and Feb 2014 violent protests in Venezuela. We outline the system architecture of EMBERS, individual models that leverage specific data sources, and a fusion and suppression engine that supports trading off specific evaluation criteria. EMBERS also provides an audit trail interface that enables the investigation of why specific predictions were made along with the data utilized for forecasting. Through numerous evaluations, we demonstrate the superiority of EMBERS over baserate methods and its capability to forecast significant societal happenings.

A fundamental problem in many applications involving social and biological networks is to identify and count the number of embeddings of a given small sub graph in a large graph. Often, they involve dynamic graphs, in which the graph changes incrementally (e.g., by edge addition/deletion). We study the Dynamic Sub graph Enumeration (DSE) Problem, where the goal is to maintain a dynamic data structure to solve the sub graph enumeration problem efficiently when the graph changes incrementally. We develop a new data structure that combines two techniques: (i) the color-coding technique of Alon et al., 2008, for enumerating trees, and (ii) a dynamic data structure for maintaining the h-index of the graph (developed by Eppstein and Spiro, 2009). We derive worst case bounds for the update time in terms of the h-index of the graph and the maximum degree. We also study the empirical performance of our algorithm in a large set of real networks, and find significant improvement over the static methods.