Estimating a team’s win probability at any given point of a game is a common task for any sport, including esports, and is important for valuing player actions, assessing profitable bets, and engaging fans with interesting metrics. Past studies of win probability in esports have relied on data extracted from matches held in well-structured and organized professional tournaments. In these tournaments, players play on set teams, oftentimes where players are well acquainted with all participants. However, there has been little study of win probability modeling in casual gaming environments – those where players are randomly matched – even though these environments form the bulk of gaming hours played. Using interpretable win probability models trained on large CSGO data sets, we improve upon the current state of the art in Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (CSGO) win probability prediction. We identify important features, such as team HP and equipment value, across different skill levels. We also find a small benefit to using Elo-based player skill estimates in predicting win probability. Furthermore, we discuss how our win probability models can be used to investigate the problem of player-leaving in competitive matchmaking.

Predicting outcomes in sports is important for teams, leagues, bettors, media, and fans. Given the growing amount of player tracking data, sports analytics models are increasingly utilizing spatially-derived features built upon player tracking data. However, player-specific information, such as location, cannot readily be included as features themselves, since common modeling techniques rely on vector input. Accordingly, spatially-derived features are often constructed in relation to anchor objects, such as the distance to a ball or goal, through global feature aggregations, or via role-assignment schemes, where players are designated a distinct role in the game. In doing so, we sacrifice inter-player and local relationships in favor of global ones. To address this issue, we introduce a sport-agnostic, graph-based representation of game states. We use our proposed graph representation as input to graph neural networks to predict sports outcomes. Our approach preserves permutation invariance and allows for flexible player interaction weights. We improve upon state of the art for prediction tasks in both American football and Counter-Strike, a popular esport, reducing test set loss by 9% and 20%, respectively. Furthermore, we show how our approach can be used to answer "what if" questions.

Online marketing platforms often store millions of website visitors' behavior as a large sparse matrix with rows as visitors and columns as behavior. These platforms allow marketers to conduct Audience Expansion, a technique to identify new audiences with similar behavior to the original target audiences. In this paper, we propose a method to achieve interactive Audience Expansion from millions of visitor data efficiently. Unlike other methods that undergo significant computations upon inputs, our approach provides interactive responses when a marketer inputs the target audiences and similarity measures. The idea is to apply data summarization technique on the large visitor matrix to obtain a small set of summaries representing the similarities in the matrix. We propose efficient algorithms to compute the data summaries on a distributed computing environment (i.e., Spark) and conduct the expansion using the summaries. Our experiment shows that our approach (1) provides 10 times more accurate and 27 times faster Audience Expansion results on real datasets and (2) achieves a 98% speed-up compared to straightforward data summarization implementations. We also present an interface to apply the algorithm for real-world scenarios.

Esports, despite its expanding interest, lacks fundamental sports analytics resources such as accessible data or proven and reproducible analytical frameworks. Even Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (CSGO), the second most popular esport, suffers from these problems. Thus, quantitative evaluation of CSGO players, a task important to teams, media, bettors and fans, is difficult. To address this, we introduce (1) a data model for CSGO with an open-source implementation; (2) a graph distance measure for defining distances in CSGO; and (3) a context-aware framework to value players' actions based on changes in their team's chances of winning. Using over 70 million in-game CSGO events, we demonstrate our framework's consistency and independence compared to existing valuation frameworks. We also provide use cases demonstrating high-impact play identification and uncertainty estimation.

Online visitor behaviors are often modeled as a large sparse matrix, where rows represent visitors and columns represent behavior. To discover customer segments with different hierarchies, marketers often need to cluster the data in different splits. Such analyses require the clustering algorithm to provide real-time responses on user parameter changes, which the current techniques cannot support. In this paper, we propose a real-time clustering algorithm, sparse density peaks, for large-scale sparse data. It pre-processes the input points to compute annotations and a hierarchy for cluster assignment. While the assignment is only a single scan of the points, a naive pre-processing requires measuring all pairwise distances, which incur a quadratic computation overhead and is infeasible for any moderately sized data. Thus, we propose a new approach based on MinHash and LSH that provides fast and accurate estimations. We also describe an efficient implementation on Spark that addresses data skew and memory usage. Our experiments show that our approach (1) provides a better approximation compared to a straightforward MinHash and LSH implementation in terms of accuracy on real datasets, (2) achieves a 20 × speedup in the end-to-end clustering pipeline, and (3) can maintain computations with a small memory. Finally, we present an interface to explore customer segments from millions of online visitor records in real-time.

The recent explosion in the number and size of spatio-temporal data sets from urban environments and social sensors creates new opportunities for data-driven approaches to understand and improve cities. Visual analytics systems like Urbane aim to empower domain experts to explore multiple data sets, at different time and space resolutions. Since these systems rely on computationally-intensive spatial aggregation queries that slice and summarize the data over different regions, an important challenge is how to attain interactivity. While traditional pre-aggregation approaches support interactive exploration, they are unsuitable in this setting because they do not support ad-hoc query constraints or polygons of arbitrary shapes. To address this limitation, we have recently proposed Raster Join, an approach that converts a spatial aggregation query into a set of drawing operations on a canvas and leverages the rendering pipeline of the graphics hardware (GPU). By doing so, Raster Join evaluates queries on the fly at interactive speeds on commodity laptops and desktops. In this demonstration, we showcase the efficiency of Raster Join by integrating it with Urbane and enabling interactivity. Demo visitors will interact with Urbane to filter and visualize several urban data sets over multiple resolutions.

The Data Polygamy framework allows users to uncover interesting patterns and interactions in the data exhaust from different components of an urban environment. But analyzing the plethora of relationships derived by the framework is challenging. In this demo, we show how visualization can help in the discovery of relationships that are potentially interesting by allowing users to query and explore the relationship set in an intuitive way. We will demonstrate the effectiveness of the visual interface through case studies, and demo visitors will also interact with the polygamous relationships.

Visual exploration of spatial data relies heavily on spatial aggregation queries that slice and summarize the data over different regions. These queries comprise computationally-intensive point-in-polygon tests that associate data points to polygonal regions, challenging the responsiveness of visualization tools. This challenge is compounded by the sheer amounts of data, requiring a large number of such tests to be performed. Traditional pre-aggregation approaches are unsuitable in this setting since they fix the query constraints and support only rectangular regions. On the other hand, query constraints are defined interactively in visual analytics systems, and polygons can be of arbitrary shapes. In this paper, we convert a spatial aggregation query into a set of drawing operations on a canvas and leverage the rendering pipeline of the graphics hardware (GPU) to enable interactive response times. Our technique trades-off accuracy for response time by adjusting the canvas resolution, and can even provide accurate results when combined with a polygon index. We evaluate our technique on two large real-world data sets, exhibiting superior performance compared to index-based approaches.

In big cities, taxi service is imbalanced. In some areas, passengers wait too long for a taxi, while in others, many taxis roam without passengers. Knowledge of where a taxi will become available can help us solve the taxi demand imbalance problem. In this paper, we employ a holistic approach to predict taxi demand at high spatial resolution. We showcase our techniques using two real-world data sets, yellow cabs and Uber trips in New York City, and perform an evaluation over 9,940 building blocks in Manhattan. Our approach consists of two key steps. First, we use entropy and the temporal correlation of human mobility to measure the demand uncertainty at the building block level. Second, to identify which predictive algorithm can approach the theoretical maximum predictability, we implement and compare three predictors: the Markov predictor (a probability-based predictive algorithm), the Lempel-Ziv-Welch predictor (a sequence-based predictive algorithm), and the Neural Network predictor (a predictive algorithm that uses machine learning). The results show that predictability varies by building block and, on average, the theoretical maximum predictability can be as high as 83%. The performance of the predictors also vary: the Neural Network predictor provides better accuracy for blocks with low predictability, and the Markov predictor provides better accuracy for blocks with high predictability. In blocks with high maximum predictability, the Markov predictor is able to predict the taxi demand with an 89% accuracy, 11% better than the Neural Network predictor, while requiring only 0.03% computation time. These findings indicate that the maximum predictability can be a good metric for selecting prediction algorithms.

The widespread use of location-based services has led to an increasing availability of trajectory data from urban environments. These data carry rich information that are useful for improving cities through traffic management and city planning. Yet, it also contains information about individuals which can jeopardize their privacy. In this study, we work with the New York City (NYC) taxi trips data set publicly released by the Taxi and Limousine Commission (TLC). This data set contains information about every taxi cab ride that happened in NYC. A bad hashing of the medallion numbers (the ID corresponding to a taxi) allowed the recovery of all the medallion numbers and led to a privacy breach for the drivers, whose income could be easily extracted. In this work, we initiate a study to evaluate whether "perfect" anonymity is possible and if such an identity disclosure can be avoided given the availability of diverse sets of external data sets through which the hidden information can be recovered. This is accomplished through a spatio-temporal join based attack which matches the taxi data with an external medallion data that can be easily gathered by an adversary. Using a simulation of the medallion data, we show that our attack can re-identify over 91% of the taxis that ply in NYC even when using a perfect pseudonymization of medallion numbers. We also explore the effectiveness of trajectory anonymization strategies and demonstrate that our attack can still identify a significant fraction of the taxis in NYC. Given the restrictions in publishing the taxi data by TLC, our results indicate that unless the utility of the data set is significantly compromised, it will not be possible to maintain the privacy of taxi medallion owners and drivers.

There are increasing volumes of spatio-temporal data from various sources such as sensors, social networks and urban environments. Analysis of such data requires flexible exploration and visualizations, but queries that span multiple geographical regions over multiple time slices are expensive to compute, making it challenging to attain interactive speeds for large data sets. In this paper, we propose a new indexing scheme that makes use of modern GPUs to efficiently support spatio-temporal queries over point data. The index covers multiple dimensions, thus allowing simultaneous filtering of spatial and temporal attributes. It uses a block-based storage structure to speed up OLAP-type queries over historical data, and supports query processing over in-memory and disk-resident data. We present different query execution algorithms that we designed to allow the index to be used in different hardware configurations, including CPU-only, GPU-only, and a combination of CPU and GPU. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our techniques, we implemented them on top of MongoDB and performed an experimental evaluation using two real-world data sets: New York City's (NYC) taxi data - consisting of over 868 million taxi trips spanning a period of five years, and Twitter posts - over 1.1 billion tweets collected over a period of 14 months. Our results show that our GPU-based index obtains interactive, sub-second response times for queries over large data sets and leads to at least two orders of magnitude speedup over spatial indexes implemented in existing open-source and commercial database systems.

As urban population grows, cities face many challenges related to transportation, resource consumption, and the environment. Ride sharing has been proposed as an effective approach to reduce traffic congestion, gasoline consumption, and pollution. Despite great promise, researchers and policy makers lack adequate tools to assess tradeoffs and benefits of various ride-sharing strategies. Existing approaches either make unrealistic modeling assumptions or do not scale to the sizes of existing data sets. In this paper, we propose a real-time, data-driven simulation framework that supports the efficient analysis of taxi ride sharing. By modeling taxis and trips as distinct entities, our framework is able to simulate a rich set of realistic scenarios. At the same time, by providing a comprehensive set of parameters, we are able to study the taxi ride-sharing problem from different angles, considering different stakeholders' interests and constraints. To address the computational complexity of the model, we describe a new optimization algorithm that is linear in the number of trips and makes use of an efficient indexing scheme, which combined with parallelization, makes our approach scalable. We evaluate our framework and algorithm using real data - 360 million trips taken by 13,000 taxis in New York City during 2011 and 2012. The results demonstrate that our framework is effective and can provide insights into strategies for implementing city-wide ride-sharing solutions. We describe the findings of the study as well as a performance analysis of the model.

We show how work flow systems can be augmented to leverage provenance information to enhance usability. In particular, we will demonstrate new mechanisms and intuitive user interfaces designed to allow users to query work flows by example and to refine work flows by analogies. These techniques are implemented in VisTrails, an open-source provenance-enabled scientific work flow system that can be combined with a wide range of tools, libraries, and visualization systems. We will show di erent scenarios where these techniques can be used to simplify the notoriously hard tasks of creating and refining work flows.

Scientists are now faced with an incredible volume of data to analyze. To successfully analyze and validate various hypothesis, it is necessary to pose several queries, correlate disparate data, and create insightful visualizations of both the simulated processes and observed phenomena. Often, insight comes from comparing the results of multiple visualizations. Unfortunately, today this process is far from interactive and contains many error-prone and time-consuming tasks. As a result, the generation and maintenance of visualizations is a major bottleneck in the scientific process, hindering both the ability to mine scientific data and the actual use of the data. The VisTrails system represents our initial attempt to improve the scientific discovery process and reduce the time to insight. In VisTrails, we address the problem of visualization from a data management perspective: VisTrails manages the data and metadata of a visualization product. In this demonstration, we show the power and flexibility of our system by presenting actual scenarios in which scientific visualization is used and showing how our system improves usability, enables reproducibility, and greatly reduces the time required to create scientific visualizations.