Accurate forecasting of sequential data streams is a cornerstone of modern Web services, supporting applications such as traffic management, user behavior modeling, and online anomaly prevention. However, in many Web environments, new domains emerge rapidly and labeled history data is scarce, which makes zero-shot forecasting particularly challenging. Existing time-series pre-trained models (TSPMs) show promise but they lack the ability to dynamically incorporate external knowledge, while conventional retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) methods are rarely extended beyond text. In this work, we present QuiZSF, a retrieval-augmented forecasting framework that integrates search and forecasting for time series data. The framework performs search by retrieving structurally similar sequences from a large-scale time-series database, and it performs forecasting by integrating the retrieved knowledge into the target sequence. Specifically, QuiZSF introduces a ChronoRAG Base, a hierarchical tree-structured database that enables scalable and domain-aware retrieval, a Multi-grained Series Interaction Learner that captures fine- and coarse-grained dependencies between target and retrieved sequences, and a Model Cooperation Coherer that adapts retrieved knowledge to TSPMs. This design teaches models to actively perform search, align auxiliary information across modalities, and leverage it for more accurate forecasting. Extensive experiments on five public benchmarks demonstrate that QuiZSF consistently outperforms strong baselines, ranking first in up to 87.5% of zero-shot forecasting settings while maintaining high efficiency.

Irregular time series analysis is increasingly essential in data management due to the proliferation of complex data irregularly sampled by real-world systems. Traditional time series models, including RNN-based models and transformer variants, face significant challenges in generalizing to continuous-time paradigms, which are essential for capturing the ongoing dynamics of irregular time series. Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs) assume a continuous latent dynamic and provide an elegant framework for irregular time series analysis, yet they suffer from limitations like fragmented latent processes and the inability to fully exploit interdependencies among observations. To address these challenges, we propose a novel Differentiable hidden state enhanced neural ODE framework, termed DIFFODE, designed to effectively model irregular time series. Concretely, we introduce an attention-based differential hidden state that maps irregular observations into a continuous hidden state space, enabling the extraction of latent dynamics while preserving temporal continuity. Leveraging the theory of generalized inverses, DIFFODE innovatively derives ODEs to describe hidden state dynamics. Furthermore, we incorporate the Hoyer metric into our framework to enhance its capacity to capture subtle yet critical temporal shifts, significantly improving the accuracy of time series modeling. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of DIFFODE across three key tasks, including irregular time series classification, interpolation, and extrapolation.

The World Wide Web thrives on intelligent services that depend heavily on accurate time series forecasting to navigate dynamic and evolving environments. Due to the partially-observed nature of real world, exclusively focusing on the target of interest, so-called endogenous variables, is insufficient for accurate forecasting, especially in web systems that are susceptible to external influences. Thus, utilizing exogenous variables to harness external information, i.e., forecasting with exogenous variable (FEV), is imperative. Nevertheless, as the external environment is complex and ever-evolving, inadequately capturing external influences can even lead to learning spurious correlations and invalid prediction. Fortunately, recent studies have demonstrated that large language models (LLMs) exhibit exceptional recognition capabilities across open real-world systems, including a deep understanding of exogenous environments. However, it is difficult to directly apply LLMs for FEV due to challenges of task activation, exogenous knowledge extraction, and feature space alignment. In this work, we devise ExoLLM, an LLM-driven method to sufficiently utilize Exogenous variables for time series forecasting. We begin by Meta-task Instruction to activate the knowledge transfer of LLM from natural language processing to FEV. To comprehensively understand the intricate and hierarchical influences of exogenous variables, we propose Multi-grained Prompts, encompassing diverse external influences, including natural attributes, trend correlations, and period relationships between two types of variables. Additionally, a Dual TS-Text Attention is devised to bridge the feature gap between text and numeric data in LLM. Evaluation on real-world datasets demonstrates ExoLLM's superiority in exploiting exogenous information for forecasting with open-world language knowledge.

While existing spatiotemporal prediction models have shown promising performance, they often rely on the assumption of input-label spatiotemporal consistency, and their high complexity raises concerns about scalability. To enhance both efficiency and performance, we integrate label information into the learning process and propose a spatiotemporal dynamic theory that outlines a bi-directional learning paradigm. Building on this paradigm, we design BiST, a lightweight yet effective Bi -directional S patio -T emporal prediction model. BiST incorporates two key processes: a forward spatiotemporal learning process and a backward correction process. The forward process utilizes MLP layers exclusively to model input correlations and generate base prediction. In the backward process, we implement a spatiotemporal decoupling module, which can learn the residual modeling deviation between input and label representations from a decoupled perspective. After smoothing the residual with a diffusion module, we can obtain the correction term to correct the base predictions. This innovative design enables BiST to achieve competitive performance while remaining lightweight. We evaluate BiST against 26 baselines across 13 datasets, including a large-scale dataset with ten thousand nodes and a longrange dataset spanning 20 years. An impressive experimental result demonstrates that BiST achieves a 8.13% improvement in performance compared to state-of-the-art models while consuming only 1.86% of the training time and 7.36% of the memory usage.

Subgraph learning has dominated most practices of improving the expressive power of Message Passing Neural Networks (MPNNs). Existing subgraph discovery policies can be classified into node-based and partition-based, which both achieve impressive performance in most scenarios. However, both mainstream solutions still face a subgraph degradation trap. Subgraph degradation is reflected in the phenomenon that the subgraph-level methods fail to offer any benefits over node-level MPNNs. In this work, we empirically investigate the existence of the subgraph degradation issue and introduce a unified perspective, perfect reconstruction, to provide insights for improving two lines of methods. We further propose a subgraph learning strategy guided by the principle of perfect reconstruction. To achieve this, two major issues should be well-addressed, i.e.,(i) how to ensure the subgraphs to possess with ‘perfect’ information? (ii) how to guarantee the ‘reconstruction’ power of obtained subgraphs?First, we propose a subgraph partition strategyRayleigh-resistanceto extract non-overlap subgraphs by leveraging the graph spectral theory. Second, we put forward aQuerymechanism to achieve subgraph-level equivariant learning, which guarantees subgraph reconstruction ability. These two parts,perfect subgraph partitionandequivariant subgraph learningare seamlessly unified as a novelRayleigh-resistanceEquivariantSubgraph learningarchitecture (RayE-Sub). Comprehensive experiments on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that our approach can consistently outperform previous subgraph learning architectures.

Pre-training GNNs to extract transferable knowledge and apply it to downstream tasks has become the de facto standard of graph representation learning. Recent works focused on designing self-supervised pre-training tasks to extract useful and universal transferable knowledge from large-scale unlabeled data. However, they have to face an inevitable question: traditional pre-training strategies that aim at extracting useful information about pre-training tasks, may not extract all useful information about the downstream task. In this paper, we reexamine the pre-training process within traditional pre-training and fine-tuning frameworks from the perspective of Information Bottleneck (IB) and confirm that the forgetting phenomenon in pre-training phase may cause detrimental effects on downstream tasks. Therefore, we propose a novelDelayedBottleneckingPre-training (DBP) framework which maintains as much as possible mutual information between latent representations and training data during pre-training phase by suppressing the compression operation and delays the compression operation to fine-tuning phase to make sure the compression can be guided with labeled fine-tuning data and downstream tasks. To achieve this, we design two information control objectives that can be directly optimized and further integrate them into the actual model design. Extensive experiments on both chemistry and biology domains demonstrate the effectiveness of DBP.

In material science, the properties of crystalline materials largely depend on their structures, and space group is a key descriptor of crystal structure. With the rapid advancement of deep learning, the traditional artificial structure analysis method based on X-ray diffraction (XRD) has become cumbersome and is being gradually supplanted by neural networks. However, existing models are too simplistic and lack a comprehensive understanding of material structure. Our approach XRDMamba integrates chemical knowledge and presents a fresh crystal planes perspective on XRD data. We also introduce a knowledge-driven model for space group identification tasks. We have thoroughly analyzed our approach through numerous experiments, observing its SOTA performance and excellent generalization capabilities. The code is available in ~https://github.com/baigeiguai/XRDMamba.

Despite Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) demonstrating considerable promise in graph representation learning tasks, GNNs predominantly face significant issues with overfitting and over-smoothing as they go deeper as models of computer vision (CV) realm.The success of artificial intelligence in computer vision and natural language processing largely stems from its ability to train deep models effectively.We have thus conducted a systematic study on deep GNN models.Our findings indicate that the current success of deep GNNs primarily stems from (I) the adoption of innovations from CNNs, such as residual/skip connections, or (II) the tailor-made aggregation algorithms like DropEdge.However, these algorithms often lack intrinsic interpretability and indiscriminately treat all nodes within a given layer in a similar manner, thereby failing to capture the nuanced differences among various nodes.In this paper, we introduce the Snowflake Hypothesis -a novel paradigm underpinning the concept of "one node, one receptive field".The hypothesis draws inspiration from the unique and individualistic patterns of * Contribute equally to this research.

Traffic prediction is a crucial task in the Intelligent Transportation System (ITS), receiving significant attention from both industry and academia. Numerous spatio-temporal graph convolutional networks have emerged for traffic prediction and achieved remarkable success. However, these models have limitations in terms of generalization and scalability when dealing with Out-of-Distribution (OOD) graph data with both structural and temporal shifts. To tackle the challenges of spatio-temporal shift, we propose a framework called STONE by learning invariable node dependencies, which achieve stable performance in variable environments. STONE initially employs gated-transformers to extract spatial and temporal semantic graphs. These two kinds of graphs represent spatial and temporal dependencies, respectively. Then we design three techniques to address spatio-temporal shifts. Firstly, we introduce a Fréchet embedding method that is insensitive to structural shifts, and this embedding space can integrate loose position dependencies of nodes within the graph. Secondly, we propose a graph intervention mechanism to generate multiple variant environments by perturbing two kinds of semantic graphs without any data augmentations, and STONE can explore invariant node representation from environments. Finally, we further introduce an explore-to-extrapolate risk objective to enhance the variety of generated environments. We conduct experiments on multiple traffic datasets, and the results demonstrate that our proposed model exhibits competitive performance in terms of generalization and scalability.

Spatiotemporal traffic forecasting plays a critical role in intelligent transportation systems, which empowers diverse urban services. Existing traffic forecasting frameworks usually devise various learning strategies to capture spatiotemporal correlations from the perspective of volume itself. However, we argue that previous traffic predictions are still unreliable due to two aspects. First, the influences of context factor-wise interactions on dynamic region-wise correlations are under exploitation. Second, the dynamics induce the credibility issue of forecasting that has not been well-explored. In this paper, we exploit the informative traffic-related context factors to jointly tackle the dynamic regional heterogeneity and explain the stochasticity, towards a credible uncertainty-aware traffic forecasting. Specifically, to internalize the dynamic contextual influences into learning process, we design a context-cross relational embedding to capture interactions between each context, and generate virtual graph topology to dynamically relate pairwise regions with context embedding. To quantify the prediction credibility, we attribute data-side aleatoric uncertainty to contexts and re-utilize them for aleatoric uncertainty quantification. Then we couple a dual-pipeline learning with the same objective to produce the discrepancy of model outputs and quantify model-side epistemic uncertainty. These two uncertainties are fed through a spatiotemporal network for extracting uncertainty evolution patterns. Finally, comprehensive experiments and model deployments have corroborated the credibility of our framework.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) can learn representative graph-level features to achieve efficient graph classification. But GNNs usually assume an environment where both class and structure distribution are balanced. Although previous works have considered the graph classification problem under the scenario of class imbalance or structure imbalance, they habitually ignored the obvious fact that class imbalance and structural imbalance are often intertwined in the real world. In this paper, we propose a carefully designed structure-driven learning framework called ImbGNN to address the potential intertwined class imbalance and structural imbalance in graph classification. Specifically, we find that feature-oriented augmentation (e.g., feature masking) and structure-oriented augmentation (e.g., edge perturbation) will have differential impacts when applied to different graphs. Therefore, we design optional augmentation based on the average degree distribution to alleviate structural imbalance. Furthermore, based on the imbalance of graph size distribution, we utilize a similarity-friendly graph random walk to extract a core subgraph to improve the accuracy of graph kernel similarity calculation, and then construct a more reasonable kernel-based graph of graphs, thereby alleviating the class imbalance and size imbalance. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that our proposed ImbGNN framework outperforms previous baselines on imbalanced graph classification tasks. The code of ImbGNN is available in~https://github.com/Xiaovy/ImbGNN.

In this paper, we address the issue of modeling and estimating changes in the state of the spatio-temporal dynamical systems based on a sequence of observations like video frames. Traditional numerical simulation systems depend largely on the initial settings and correctness of the constructed partial differential equations (PDEs). Despite recent efforts yielding significant success in discovering data-driven PDEs with neural networks, the limitations posed by singular scenarios and the absence of local insights prevent them from performing effectively in a broader real-world context. To this end, this paper propose the universal expert module – that is, optical flow estimation component, to capture the evolution laws of general physical processes in a data-driven fashion. To enhance local insight, we painstakingly design a finer-grained physical pipeline, since local characteristics may be influenced by various internal contextual information, which may contradict the macroscopic properties of the whole system. Further, we harness currently popular neural discrete learning to unveil the underlying important features in its latent space, this process better injects interpretability, which can help us obtain a powerful prior over these discrete random variables. We conduct extensive experiments and ablations to demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves large performance margins, compared with the existing SOTA baselines.

Recently, spatiotemporal graph convolutional networks are becoming popular in the field of traffic flow prediction and significantly improve prediction accuracy. However, the majority of existing traffic flow prediction models are tailored to static traffic networks and fail to model the continuous evolution and expansion of traffic networks. In this work, we move to investigate the challenge of traffic flow prediction on an expanding traffic network. And we propose an efficient and effective continual learning framework to achieve continuous traffic flow prediction without the access to historical graph data, namely Pattern Expansion and Consolidation based on Pattern Matching based (PECPM). Specifically, we first design a pattern bank based on pattern matching to store representative patterns of the road network. With the expansion of the road network, the model configured with such a bank module can achieve continuous traffic prediction by effectively managing patterns stored in the bank. The core idea is to continuously update new patterns while consolidating learned ones. Specifically, we design a pattern expansion mechanism that can detect evolved and new patterns from the updated network, then these unknown patterns are expanded into the pattern bank to adapt to the updated road network. Additionally, we propose a pattern consolidation mechanism that includes both a bank preservation mechanism and a pattern traceability mechanism. This can effectively consolidate the learned patterns in the bank without requiring access to detailed historical graph data. We construct experiments on real-world traffic datasets to demonstrate the competitive performance, superior efficiency, and strong generalization ability of PECPM.

Missing values, which are common in multivariate time series, is most important obstacle towards the utilization and interpretation of those data. Great efforts have been employed on how to accurately impute missing values in multivariate time series, and existing works either use deep learning networks to achieve deterministic imputations or aim at generating different plausible imputations by sampling multiple noises from a same distribution and then denoising them. However, these models either fall short of modeling the uncertainties of imputations due to their deterministic nature or perform poorly in terms of interpretability and imputation accuracy due to their ignorance of the correlations between the latent representations of both observed and missing values which are parts of samples from a same distribution. To this end, in this paper, we explicitly take the correlations between observed and missing values into account, and theoretically re-derive the Evidence Lower BOund (ELBO) of conditional diffusion model in the scenario of multivariate time series imputation. Based on the newly derived ELBO, we further propose a novel multivariate imputation diffusion model (MIDM) which is equipped with novel noise sampling, adding and denoising mechanisms for multivariate time series imputation, and the series of newly designed technologies jointly ensure the involving of the consistency between observed and missing values. Extensive experiments on both the tasks of multivariate time series imputation and forecasting witness the superiority of our proposed MIDM model on generating conditional estimations.

Subgraph learning has received considerable attention in its capacity of interpreting important structural information for predictions. Existing subgraph learning usually exploits statistics on predefined structures e.g., node degrees, occurrence frequency, to extract subgraphs, or refine the contents via only capturing label-relevant information with node-level sampling. Given diverse subgraph patterns, and mutual independence with local correlations on graphs, current solutions on subgraph learning still have two limitations in extraction and refinement stages. 1) The universality of extracting substructure patterns across domains is still lacking, 2) node-level sampling in refinement will distort the original local topology and none explicit guidance eliminating redundant information contribute to inefficiency issue. In this paper, we propose a unified subgraph learning scheme, Poly-Pivot Graph Neural Network (P2GNN) where we designate the centric node of each subgraph as the pivot. In the extraction stage, we present a general subgraph extraction principle, i.e., Local; Asymmetry between the centric and affiliated nodes. To this end, we asymmetrically model the similarity between each pair of nodes with random walk and quantify mutual affiliations in Affinity Propagation architecture, to extract subgraph structures. In the refinement, we devise a subgraph-level exclusion regularization to squash the target-independent information by considering mutual relations across subgraphs, cooperatively preserving a support set of subgraphs and facilitating the refinement process for graph representation. Empirical experiments on diverse web and biological graphs reveal 1.1%~7.3% improvements against best baselines, and visualized case studies prove the universality and interpretability of our P2GNN.

Spatiotemporal (ST) learning has become a crucial technique for urban digitalization. Due to expansions and dynamics of cities, current spatiotemporal models are inclined to suffer distribution shifts between training and testing sets, leading to the OOD delimma. However, few studies focus on such OOD problem in temporal regressions, let alone spatiotemporal learning. Spatiotemporal data usually reveals segment-level heterogeneity within periodicity and complex spatial dependencies, posing challenges to invariance extraction. In this paper, we find that ST relations make sense for generalization and devise a Causal ST learning framework, CauSTG, which enables invariant relation transferred to OOD scenarios. Specifically, we take temporal steps as environments, and transform spatial-temporal relations into learnable parameters. To tackle heterogeneity in periodicity, we partition temporal steps into sub-environments by identifying distinctive trend patterns, enabling re-organized samples trained separately. To extract invariance within ST observations, we propose a spatiotemporal consistency learner and a hierarchical invariance explorer to jointly filter out stable relations. Our spatiotemporal learner quantifies bi-directional spatial consistency and extracts disentangled seasonal-trend patterns via trainable parameters. Further, the hierarchical invariance explorer constructs variation-based filter to achieve both local and global invariances. Experiments reveal that CauSTG can increase at most 10.26% performance against best baselines, and visualized invariant relations can well interpret the physical rationales. The appendix and codes can be available in our Github repository.

Spatiotemporal forecasting is an imperative topic in data science due to its critical applications in smart cities. Existing works mostly perform consecutive predictions of following steps with observations continuously obtained, where nearest observations can be exploited as the key knowledge for status estimation. However, the practical issues of early activity planning and sensor failures elicit a new task, non-consecutive forecasting. In this paper, we define spatiotemporal learning systems with missing observations as Grey Spatiotemporal Systems (G2S) and propose a Factor-Decoupled learning framework for G2S to hierarchically decouple multi-level factors, and enable flexible aggregations with uncertainty estimations. We especially select representative sequences to capture periodicity and instantaneous variations, and infer the non-consecutive future statuses under expected exogenous factors, compensating the missing observations. Given the inherent incompleteness and critical applications of G2S, a DisEntangled Uncertainty Quantification is put forward, to identify two types of uncertainty for model interpretations and robustness promotions. Experiments demonstrate that our solution can promote the performance by at least 8.50% on early planning and 2.01%-18.00% on sensor failures. The appendix of this paper can be found at https://github.com/zzyy0929/SDM-G2S.

Spatiotemporal data forecasting is a fundamental task in the field of graph data mining. Typical spatiotemporal data prediction methods usually capture spatial dependencies by directly aggregating features of local neighboring vertices in a fixed graph. However, this kind of aggregators can only capture localized correlations between vertices, and while been stacked for larger receptive field, they fall into the dilemma of over-smoothing. Additional, in temporal perspective, traditional methods focus on fixed graphs, while the correlations among vertexes can be dynamic. And time series components integrated strategies in traditional spatiotemporal learning methods can hardly handle frequently and drastically changed sequences. To overcome those limitations of existing works, in this paper, we propose a novel multi-graph based dynamic learning framework. First, a novel Dynamic Neighbor Search (DNS) mechanism is introduced to model global dynamic correlations between vertices by constructing a feature graph (FG), where the adjacency matrix is dynamically determined by DNS. Then we further alleviate the over-smoothing issue with our newly designed Adaptive Heterogeneous Representation (AHR) module. Both FG and origin graph (OG) are fed into the AHR modules and fused in our proposed Multi-graph Fusion block. Additionally, we design a Differential Vertex Representation (DVR) module which takes advantage of differential information to model temporal trends. Extensive experiments illustrate the superior forecasting performances of our proposed multi-graph based dynamic learning framework on six real-world spatiotemporal datasets from different cities and domains, and this corroborates the solid effectiveness of our proposed framework and its superior generalization ability.

Urban housing price is widely accepted as an economic indicator which is of both business and research interest in urban computing. However, due to the complex nature of influencing factors and the sparse property of transaction records, to implement such a model is still challenging. To address these challenges, in this work, we study an effective and fine-grained model for urban subregion housing price predictions. Compared to existing works, our proposal improves the forecasting granularity from city-level to mile-level, with only publicly released transaction data. We employ a feature selection mechanism to select more relevant features. Then, we propose an integrated model, JGC MMN (Joint Gated Co-attention Based Multi-modal Network), to learn all-level features and capture spatiotemporal correlations in all-time stages with a modified densely connected convolutional network as well as current ingredients and future expectations. Next, we devise a novel JGC based fusion method to better fuse the heterogeneous data of multi-stage models by considering their interactions in temporal dimension. Finally, extensive empirical studies on real datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposal, and this fine-grained housing price forecasting has the potential to support a broad scope of applications, ranging from urban planning to housing market recommendations.

Modern intelligent transportation system (ITS) has greatly benefitted people's daily life. However, the chanciness and suddenness of urban anomalies may greatly restrict the trouble-free operations of ITS. To be aware of future urban anomalies and their possible influences, great efforts have been achieved on these two aspects, but comprehensive predictions of urban anomalies including the predictions of distributions and durations, are still beingless. And the spatiotemporal cascade self/mutual exciting influences among anomalies have never been considered in previous studies. In this paper, we propose a novel Anomaly Distribution and Duration Joint-Prediction (A2DJP) algorithm to simultaneously filtrate urban subregions and estimate the duration of corresponding potential anomalies in the future. To capture the spatiotemporal correlations between urban traffics and anomalies, we use a modified Graph Convolution Network and Long Short-Term Memory integrated network. To learn the cascade correlations among anomalies themselves, we devise a novel Spatiotemporal neural Hawkes Process model, which contains a Hawkes Process (HP) based GCN and HP-based LSTM to extract the anomaly-wise spatiotemporal cascading correlations. By fusing the spatiotemporal correlations between traffics and anomalies, we then simultaneously predict the distributions and durations of future anomalies. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art solutions.

An address, a textual description of a physical location, plays an important role in location-based services such as on-demand delivery and e-commerce. However, abnormal addresses (i.e., an address without detailed information representing a spatial location) have led to significant costs. In real-world settings like e-commerce, abnormal address detection is not trivial because it needs to be completed in real-time to support massive online queries. In this study, we design FastAddr, a fast abnormal address detection framework, which detects abnormal addresses among millions of addresses in a short time. By investigating and modeling the hierarchical structure of address data, we first design a novel contrastive address augmentation approach to generate training data via learning the entity transition probability matrix. We further design a lightweight multi-head attention model for learning compact address representation by modeling the address characteristics. We conduct a comprehensive three-phase evaluation. (i) We evaluate FastAddr on a real-world dataset and it yields the average F1 of 85.7% in 0.058 milliseconds, which outperforms the state-of-the-art models by 47.4% with similar detection time. (ii) An offline A/B test shows that FastAddr outperforms the previous deployed model significantly. (iii) We also conduct an online A/B test to compare FastAddr with the deployed model, which shows an improvement of F1 by more than 20%. Moreover, a real-world case study demonstrates both the efficiency and effectiveness of FastAddr.

Fusing multimodal heterogeneous data plays a vital role in recognition and prediction tasks in various fields, e.g., action recognition and traffic accident forecast. Yet, there remain some key challenges, such as heterogeneous feature interaction and feature redundancies, that significantly affect the performance of multimodal fusion. To tackle these challenges, we first devise a Unified Feature Interaction Module (UFIM) in which a novel orthogonal attention component is designed to obtain fine-grained inter-modal interaction information among heterogeneous features. Then, we propose a novel Self-Correcting Transformer Module (SCTM) which employs a modified transformer to obtain the one-to-many correlation information between the current modal feature and the merged features of other modalities to alleviate the redundancy problem. Extensive experiments on four cross-domain tasks demonstrate the effectiveness and generalization ability of our proposed method.

With increasing population of modern cities, accurate estimation of regional passenger demands is critical to online taxicab services as such platforms aim at a reformation of taxicab scheduling for a more efficient order dispatching. Though great efforts have been made on passenger demand predictions, existing works still have the following shortcomings: i) they mostly performed based on uniform grid partition, which results in the imbalance of demand volumes among regions and even non-vehicle regions in such partition, ii) none of previous demand forecasting efforts have highlighted the important mutual influences between pick-ups and drop-offs, which are of great significance for taxicab scheduling. To this end, we first devise a multi-kernel based clustering to achieve a taxicab-behavior and geographic-aware sub-region partition, hence a more balanced and compact regional division is obtained. Subsequently, we emphasize the essential factors with regard to mutual transition quantification in taxicab predictions, then propose a Transfer-LSTM and an Origin-Destination-based transition matrix to respectively capture the drop-to-pick and pick-to-drop spatiotemporal transition patterns. Hence, a novel mutual-transition-aware co-prediction framework is devised by capturing complex spatiotemporal interactions between pick-ups and drop-offs. Extensive experiments on two real-world taxicab datasets demonstrate our co-prediction framework is superior to state-of-the-art methods, thus providing novel perspectives to urban human mobility understanding and transition-based taxicab scheduling.

Traffic accident has become a significant health and development threat with rapid urbanizations. An accurate urban accident forecasting enables higher-quality police force pre-allocation and safe route planning for both traffic administrations and travelers, maximumly reducing injuries and damages. Off-the-shelf short-term accident forecasting methods, which focus on modeling static region-wise correlations with existing neural networks, mostly performed on hour levels and with single step. However, given the dynamic nature of road networks and expanding urban areas, it is challenging when the spatiotemporal granularity of forecasting improves as the rareness of accident records and complexity of long-term future dependencies. To address these challenges, we propose a unified framework RiskSeq, to foresee sparse urban accidents with finer granularities and multiple steps in spatiotemporal perspective. In particular, we design region-wise proximity measurements and temporal feature differential operations, and embed them into a novel Differential Time-varying Graph Convolution Network to dynamically capture traffic variations. Considering the hierarchical spatial dependencies and obvious context influences, a hierarchical sequence learning structure is devised by introducing contextual factors into a step-wise decoder. The multi-scale spatial risks are learned jointly to boost the risk predictions based on risk-gather and risk-assign networks. Extensive experiments demonstrate our RiskSeq can increase 5 to 15 percent performances on two datasets.

Foreseeing detailed vehicle future trajectories collectively enables a large scope of urban applications such as route planning and commercial advertising. Existing methods focused on predicting future trajectories of urban vehicles with their own fine-grained historical trajectories. Unfortunately, in real-world scenarios, fine-grained trajectories provided by GPS are limited to obtain due to privacy issues and business competitions. In this paper, our solution enables the ubiquitous but coarse-grained location-based surveillance information to predict the fine-grained trajectories of all vehicles with limited number of fine-grained trajectories. We first capture the vectorized semantic representation of trajectories by training the spatiotemporal embedding in large coarse trajectory set. Then, we propose a new measurement to calculate the trajectory similarity, which combines the vehicles' historical behavior similarity and short-term trajectory similarity. The obtained trajectory similarity is then seamlessly embedded into the dynamic graph convolution network in the manner of spatial attention. The dynamic graph convolution sequence-to-sequence module and the fully-connected layer are devised to generate final sequential trajectory predictions. The whole process is to train in a multi-task framework. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets show the excellent performance of our method.

The proliferation of advanced mobile terminals opened up a new crowdsourcing avenue, spatial crowdsourcing, to utilize the crowd potential to perform real-world tasks. In this work, we study a new type of spatial crowdsourcing, called time-continuous spatial crowdsourcing (TCSC in short). It supports broad applications for long-term continuous spatial data acquisition, ranging from environmental monitoring to traffic surveillance in citizen science and crowdsourcing projects. However, due to limited budgets and limited availability of workers in practice, the data collected is often incomplete, incurring data deficiency problem. To tackle that, in this work, we first propose an entropy-based quality metric, which captures the joint effects of incompletion in data acquisition and the imprecision in data interpolation. Based on that, we investigate quality-aware task assignment methods for both single- and multi-task scenarios. We show the NP-hardness of the single-task case, and design polynomial-time algorithms with guaranteed approximation ratios. We study novel indexing and pruning techniques for further enhancing the performance in practice. Then, we extend the solution to multi-task scenarios and devise a parallel framework for speeding up the process of optimization. We conduct extensive experiments on both real and synthetic datasets to show the effectiveness of our proposals.

The high dynamics and heterogeneous interactions in the complicated urban systems have raised the issue of uncertainty quantification in spatiotemporal human mobility, to support critical decision-makings in risk-aware web applications such as urban event prediction where fluctuations are of significant interests. Given the fact that uncertainty quantifies the potential variations around prediction results, traditional learning schemes always lack uncertainty labels, and conventional uncertainty quantification approaches mostly rely upon statistical estimations with Bayesian Neural Networks or ensemble methods. However, they have never involved any spatiotemporal evolution of uncertainties under various contexts, and also have kept suffering from the poor efficiency of statistical uncertainty estimation while training models with multiple times. To provide high-quality uncertainty quantification for spatiotemporal forecasting, we propose an uncertainty learning mechanism to simultaneously estimate internal data quality and quantify external uncertainty regarding various contextual interactions. To address the issue of lacking labels of uncertainty, we propose a hierarchical data turbulence scheme where we can actively inject controllable uncertainty for guidance, and hence provide insights to both uncertainty quantification and weak supervised learning. Finally, we re-calibrate and boost the prediction performance by devising a gated-based bridge to adaptively leverage the learned uncertainty into predictions. Extensive experiments on three real-world spatiotemporal mobility sets have corroborated the superiority of our proposed model in terms of both forecasting and uncertainty quantification.

Due to the ever-growing concerns over air pollution and energy security, more and more cities have started to replace their conventional taxi fleets with electric ones. Even though environmentally friendly, the rapid promotion of electric taxis raises problems to both taxi drivers and governments, e.g., prolonged waiting/charging time, unbalanced utilization of charging infrastructures, and inadequate taxi supply due to the long charging time. In this article, we conduct the first longitudinal measurement study to understand the long-term evolution of mobility and charging patterns by utilizing 5-year data from one of the largest electric taxi networks in the world, i.e., the Shenzhen electric taxi network in China. In particular, (1) we first perform an electric taxi contextualization about their operation and charging activities; (2) then we design a generic charging event extraction algorithm based on GPS data and charging station data, and (3) based on the contextualization and extracted charging activities, we perform a comprehensive measurement study called ePat to explore the evolution of the electric taxi network from the mobility and charging perspectives. Our ePat is based on 4.8 TB taxi GPS data, 240 GB taxi transaction data, and metadata from 117 charging stations, during an evolution process from 427 electric taxis in 2013 to 13,178 in 2018. Moreover, ePat also explores the impacts of various contexts and benefits during the evolution process. Our ePat as a comprehensive measurement of the electric taxi network mobility and charging evolution has the potential to advance the understanding of the evolution patterns of electric taxi networks and pave the way for analyzing future shared autonomous vehicles.

Urban housing price is widely accepted as an economic indicator of both business and research interest in urban computing. In this work, we propose an effective and fine-grained model for urban subregion housing price predictions. Compared to existing works, our proposal improves the forecasting granularity from city-level to mile-level in spite of data sparsity and complex factors. The fine-grained housing price forecasting has the potential to support a broad scope of applications, ranging from urban planning to housing market recommendations. To achieve that, in this paper, we propose a novel integrated framework, FTD_DenseNet, which incorporates more social and economic features and makes full use of all-level spatiotemporal features. Specifically, the Kalman Filter-based future expection is firstly involved as an influence factor in our model. Extensive empirical studies on real data show the effectiveness of our proposals.

Due to the sparse distribution of road video surveillance cameras, precise trajectory tracking for hit-and-run vehicles remains a challenging task. Previous research on vehicle trajectory recovery mostly focuses on recovering trajectory with low-sampling-rate GPS coordinates by retrieving road traffic flow patterns from collected GPS information. However, to the best of our knowledge, none of them considered using on-road taxicabs as mobile video surveillance cameras as well as the time-varying characteristics of vehicle traveling and road traffic flow patterns, therefore not suitable for recovering trajectories of hit-and-run vehicles. With this insight, we model the travel time-cost of a road segment during various time periods precisely with LNDs (Logarithmic Normal Distributions), then use LSNDs (Log Skew Normal Distributions) to approximate the time-cost of an urban trip during various time periods. We propose a novel approach to calculate possible location and time distribution of the hit-and-run vehicle in parallel, select the optimal taxicab to verify the distribution by uploading and checking video clips of this taxicab, finally refine the restoring trajectory in a parallel and recursive manner. We evaluate our solution on real-world taxicab and road surveillance system datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach outperforms alternative solutions in terms of accuracy ratio of vehicle tracking.

Recent advances in vehicular networks, GPS and smartphone technologies have changed the paradigm of intelligent taxicab systems. Indeed, taxicab trajectories and online calling information have enabled us to provide more efficient and personalized services. However, existing approaches are not sufficient in exploiting cooperative scheduling techniques and utilizing real time calling information. To this end, in this paper, we model the time-varying regularities of traffic flows, activity ratios of passengers, and unoccupied taxicabs of road segments by mining statistical data on taxicab trajectories. Along this line, we propose a novel approach to calculate the expected revenue of possible routes for individual taxicabs while considering the influence of others, and at the same time, advance a dynamic taxicab scheduling mechanism with online taxicab calling information. Finally, we evaluate our algorithm on real-world taxicab data. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach outperforms existing alternative solutions in terms of average revenue of taxi drivers.