Determining and verifying product provenance remains a critical challenge in global supply chains, particularly as geopolitical conflicts and shifting borders create new incentives for misrepresentation of commodities, such as hiding the origin of illegally harvested timber or stolen agricultural products. Stable Isotope Ratio Analysis (SIRA), combined with Gaussian process regression-based isoscapes, has emerged as a powerful tool for geographic origin verification. While these models are now actively deployed in operational settings supporting regulators, certification bodies, and companies, they remain constrained by data scarcity and suboptimal dataset selection. In this work, we introduce a novel deployed data valuation framework designed to enhance the selection and utilization of training data for machine learning models applied in SIRA. By quantifying the marginal utility of individual samples using Shapley values, our method guides strategic, cost-effective, and robust sampling campaigns within active monitoring programs. By prioritizing high-informative samples, our approach improves model robustness and predictive accuracy across diverse datasets and geographies. Our framework has been implemented and validated in a live provenance verification system currently used by enforcement agencies, demonstrating tangible, real-world impact. Through extensive experiments and deployment in a live provenance verification system, we show that this system significantly enhances provenance verification, mitigates fraudulent trade practices, and strengthens regulatory enforcement of global supply chains.

Numerical reasoning over documents, which demands both contextual understanding and logical inference, is challenging for low-capacity local models deployed on computation-constrained devices. Although such complex reasoning queries could be routed to powerful remote models like GPT-4, exposing local data raises significant data leakage concerns. Existing mitigation methods generate problem descriptions or examples for remote assistance. However, the inherent complexity of numerical reasoning hinders the local model from generating logically equivalent queries and accurately inferring answers with remote guidance. In this paper, we present a model collaboration framework with two key innovations: (1) a context-aware synthesis strategy that shifts the query topics while preserving reasoning patterns; and (2) a tool-based answer reconstruction approach that reuses the remote-generated plug-and-play solution with code snippets. Experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves better reasoning accuracy than solely using local models while providing stronger data protection than fully relying on remote models. Furthermore, our method improves accuracy by 16.2% - 43.6% while reducing data leakage by 2.3% - 44.6% compared to existing data protection approaches.

Access to metro systems plays a critical role in shaping urban housing markets by enhancing neighborhood accessibility and driving property demand. We present RailEstate, a novel web-based system that integrates spatial analytics, natural language interfaces, and interactive forecasting to analyze how proximity to metro stations influences residential property prices in the Washington metropolitan area. Unlike static mapping tools or generic listing platforms, RailEstate combines 25 years of historical housing data with transit infrastructure to support low-latency geospatial queries, time-series visualizations, and predictive modeling. Users can interactively explore ZIP-code-level price patterns, investigate long-term trends, and forecast future housing values around any metro station. A key innovation is our natural language chatbot, which translates plain-English questions (e.g., "What is the highest price in Falls Church in the year 2000?") into executable SQL over a spatial database. This unified and interactive platform empowers urban planners, investors, and residents to derive actionable insights from metro-linked housing data—without requiring technical expertise. A demonstration video of the system is available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZLiz8S1UXsc.

Understanding post-wildfire vegetation loss is critical for developing effective ecological recovery strategies and is often challenging due to the extended time and effort required to capture the evolving ecosystem features. Recent works in this area have not fully explored all the contributing factors, their modalities, and interactions with each other. Furthermore, most research in this domain is limited by a lack of interpretability in predictive modeling, making it less useful in real-world settings. In this work, we propose a novel end-to-end ML pipeline called MVeLMA (Multimodal Vegetation Loss Modeling Architecture) to predict county-wise vegetation loss from fire events. MVeLMA uses a multimodal feature integration pipeline and a stacked ensemble-based architecture to capture different modalities while also incorporating uncertainty estimation through probabilistic modeling. Through comprehensive experiments, we show that our model outperforms several state-of-the-art (SOTA) and baseline models in predicting post-wildfire vegetation loss. Furthermore, we generate vegetation loss confidence maps to identify high-risk counties, thereby helping targeted recovery efforts. The findings of this work have the potential to inform future disaster relief planning, ecological policy development, and wildlife recovery management.

Network interdiction problems, arising in critical applications from military strategy to disease control, involve a complex attacker-defender dynamic: one player optimizes a network-based objective, while the other strategically modifies the network to impede that objective. The inherent bi-level optimization and combinatorial nature of these problems pose a significant computational challenge, often rendering traditional exact solvers impractical and hindering the development of effective heuristics. While Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have demonstrated promise in solving single-level combinatorial optimization problems on graphs, their direct application to bi-level interdiction problems remains limited. In this paper, we bridge this gap by introducing a novel approach that leverages the power of GNNs to learn Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) formulations of network interdiction problems. By representing the problem in this structured mathematical form, we empower a multipartite GNN with the representational capacity to effectively capture the complex interplay between the two players. This approach aligns the neural network with the underlying mathematical structure of interdiction problems, leading to improved performance. Through extensive experiments on two network interdiction tasks, we demonstrate the superiority of our proposed method over both baseline GNN models and traditional exact solvers, showcasing its potential for real-world applications.

Illegal logging poses a significant threat to global biodiversity, climate stability, and depresses international prices for legal wood harvesting and responsible forest products trade, affecting livelihoods and communities across the globe. Stable isotope ratio analysis (SIRA) is rapidly becoming an important tool for determining the harvest location of traded, organic, products. The spatial pattern in stable isotope ratio values depends on factors such as atmospheric and environmental conditions and can thus be used for geographic origin identification. We present here the results of a deployed machine learning pipeline where we leverage both isotope values and atmospheric variables to determine timber harvest location. Additionally, the pipeline incorporates uncertainty estimation to facilitate the interpretation of harvest location determination for analysts. We present our experiments on a collection of oak (Quercus spp.) tree samples from its global range. Our pipeline outperforms comparable state-of-the-art models determining geographic harvest origin of commercially traded wood products, and has been used by European enforcement agencies to identify harvest location misrepresentation. We also identify opportunities for further advancement of our framework and how it can be generalized to help identify the origin of falsely labeled organic products throughout the supply chain.

Transit network expansion is a challenging urban planning task that requires sophisticated decision-making to meet growing travel demands and improve urban mobility. This paper proposes the Gated Attentive Graph Reinforcement Learning (GAGRL) framework to optimize transit network expansion. GAGRL models the urban environment as a heterogeneous graph, where nodes represent urban regions and multiple edge types capture diverse relationships. By formulating the network expansion task as a Markov decision process within an expanding partial subgraph, GAGRL leverages a specially designed graph neural network encoder with gated message passing to effectively model urban features such as spatial connectivity and mobility flows. An attentive policy network ensures its efficient exploration of the solution space while adhering to budget constraints and transportation engineering requirements. Extensive experiments on real-world transit networks demonstrate that GAGRL outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving an average 25.95% improvement in total served origin-destination demand across various budget scenarios in the Beijing metro network. The superior performance of GAGRL, particularly in larger and more complex urban environments, highlights its potential as a powerful tool for automated transit network design.

The fairness and trustworthiness of Large Language Models (LLMs) are receiving increasing attention.Implicit hate speech, which employs indirect language to convey hateful intentions, occupies a significant portion of practice.However, the extent to which LLMs effectively address this issue remains insufficiently examined.This paper delves into the capability of LLMs to detect implicit hate speech (Classification Task) and express confidence in their responses (Calibration Task).Our evaluation meticulously considers various prompt patterns and mainstream uncertainty estimation methods.Our findings highlight that LLMs exhibit two extremes: (1) LLMs display excessive sensitivity towards groups or topics that may cause fairness issues, resulting in misclassifying benign statements as hate speech.(2) LLMs' confidence scores for each method excessively concentrate on a fixed range, remaining unchanged regardless of the dataset's complexity.Consequently, the calibration performance is heavily reliant on primary classification accuracy.These discoveries unveil new limitations of LLMs, underscoring the need for caution when optimizing models to ensure they do not veer towards extremes.This serves as a reminder to carefully consider sensitivity and confidence in the pursuit of model fairness.

Electroencephalograms (EEGs) are essential tools for detecting epilepsy using artificial intelligence, despite their inherent variability in format and fidelity. Most studies focus on patient-specific, high-quality EEGs with fixed sampling rates. However, the real-world challenge lies in diagnosing epilepsy across diverse patients with varying sampling rates, low-quality signals, and incomplete data. To tackle these challenges, we introduce the CPEDNet model, designed for Cross-Patient Epilepsy Diagnosis using EEGs that may have diverse sampling, missing data, high noise, insufficient labels, and volatility. Specifically, we employ a latent Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (NODE) method to enhance EEG signals, mitigating the challenges posed by irregular sampling, missing data, and outliers. Then, we represent the enhanced EEG signals as brain network flows, capturing neural representations across spatial and temporal dimensions. Furthermore, we integrate a score-based, two-stage self-supervised strategy to strengthen multi-channel EEG feature learning and ensure stability in the temporal dynamics of the brain network flow. Extensive testing on two real-world datasets shows that our CPEDNet surpasses current methods, effectively learning spatiotemporal patterns from diverse EEG formats. Abundant ablation studies validate the effectiveness of each module within our model.

This paper introduces LSTMGraph, a unified time-series model designed for demand prediction across multiple products. This method integrates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to capture temporal dynamics, such as price fluctuations, and Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN) to model global dependencies between products. We represent demand data as a network where each product is a node, constructing three distinct graphs with different types of edges: (i) a weekly sales similarity graph, (ii) a customer-based relationship graph, and (iii) an invoice-based similarity graph. These graphs are merged to enhance predictive accuracy by incorporating diverse temporal and relational patterns. Extensive experiments show that LSTMGraph significantly outperforms existing baseline models. Additionally, an ablation study is conducted to quantify the impact of each graph type on overall performance.

Can we trust Large Language Models (LLMs) to accurately predict scam? This paper investigates the vulnerabilities of LLMs when facing adversarial scam messages for the task of scam detection. We addressed this issue by creating a comprehensive dataset with fine-grained labels of scam messages, including both original and adversarial scam messages. The dataset extended traditional binary classes for the scam detection task into more nuanced scam types. Our analysis showed how adversarial examples took advantage of vulnerabilities of a LLM, leading to high misclassification rate. We evaluated the performance of LLMs on these adversarial scam messages and proposed strategies to improve their robustness.

Climate change is intensifying rainfall extremes, making high-resolution precipitation projections crucial for society to better prepare for impacts such as flooding. However, current Global Climate Models (GCMs) operate at spatial resolutions too coarse for localized analyses. To address this limitation, deep learning-based statistical downscaling methods offer promising solutions, providing high-resolution precipitation projections with a moderate computational cost. In this work, we introduce a bias-informed conditional diffusion model for statistical downscaling of precipitation. Specifically, our model leverages a conditional diffusion approach to learn distribution priors from large-scale, high-resolution precipitation datasets. The long-tail distribution of precipitation poses a unique challenge for training diffusion models; to address this, we apply gamma correction during preprocessing. Additionally, to correct biases in the downscaled results, we employ a guided-sampling strategy to enhance bias correction. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed model achieves highly accurate results in an 8× downscaling setting, outperforming previous deterministic methods. The code and dataset are available at Github.

Text summarization, a key natural language generation (NLG) task, is vital in various domains.However, the high cost of inaccurate summaries in risk-critical applications, particularly those involving human-in-the-loop decision-making, raises concerns about the reliability of uncertainty estimation on text summarization (UE-TS) evaluation methods.This concern stems from the dependency of uncertainty model metrics on diverse and potentially conflicting NLG metrics.To address this issue, we introduce a comprehensive UE-TS benchmark incorporating 31 NLG metrics across four dimensions.The benchmark evaluates the uncertainty estimation capabilities of two large language models and one pre-trained language model on three datasets, with humanannotation analysis incorporated where applicable.We also assess the performance of 14 common uncertainty estimation methods within this benchmark.Our findings emphasize the importance of considering multiple uncorrelated NLG metrics and diverse uncertainty estimation methods to ensure reliable and efficient evaluation of UE-TS techniques.Our code and data are available here.

The meaning of complex phrases in natural language is composed of their individual components. The task of compositional generalization evaluates a model’s ability to understand new combinations of components. Previous studies trained smaller, task-specific models, which exhibited poor generalization. While large language models (LLMs) exhibit impressive generalization abilities on many tasks through in-context learning (ICL), their potential for compositional generalization remains unexplored. In this paper, we first empirically investigate prevailing ICL methods in compositional generalization. We find that they struggle with complex compositional questions due to cumulative errors in long reasoning steps and intricate logic required for tool-making. Consequently, we propose a human-guided tool manipulation framework (HTM) that generates tools for sub-questions and integrates multiple tools. Our method enhances the effectiveness of tool creation and usage with minimal human effort. Experiments show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on two compositional generalization benchmarks and outperforms existing methods on the most challenging test split by nearly 70%.

Recently a line of research has delved into the use of graph neural networks (GNNs) for decentralized control in swarm robotics. However, it has been observed that relying solely on the states of immediate neighbors is insufficient to imitate a centralized control policy. To address this limitation, prior studies proposed incorporating L-hop delayed states into the computation. While this approach shows promise, it can lead to a lack of consensus among distant flock members and the formation of small clusters, consequently failing cohesive flocking behaviors. Instead, our approach leverages spatiotemporal GNN, named STGNN that encompasses both spatial and temporal expansions. The spatial expansion collects delayed states from distant neighbors, while the temporal expansion incorporates previous states from immediate neighbors. The broader information gathered from both expansions results in more effective and accurate predictions. We develop an expert algorithm for controlling a swarm of robots and employ imitation learning to train our decentralized STGNN model based on the expert algorithm. We simulate the proposed STGNN approach in various settings, demonstrating its decentralized capacity to emulate the global expert algorithm. Further, we implemented our approach to achieve cohesive flocking, leader following, and obstacle avoidance by a group of Crazyflie drones. The performance of STGNN underscores its potential as an effective and reliable approach for achieving cohesive flocking, leader following, and obstacle avoidance tasks.

We present DC-Gaussian, a new method for generating novel views from in-vehicle dash cam videos. While neural rendering techniques have made significant strides in driving scenarios, existing methods are primarily designed for videos collected by autonomous vehicles. However, these videos are limited in both quantity and diversity compared to dash cam videos, which are more widely used across various types of vehicles and capture a broader range of scenarios. Dash cam videos often suffer from severe obstructions such as reflections and occlusions on the windshields, which significantly impede the application of neural rendering techniques. To address this challenge, we develop DC-Gaussian based on the recent real-time neural rendering technique 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS). Our approach includes an adaptive image decomposition module to model reflections and occlusions in a unified manner. Additionally, we introduce illumination-aware obstruction modeling to manage reflections and occlusions under varying lighting conditions. Lastly, we employ a geometry-guided Gaussian enhancement strategy to improve rendering details by incorporating additional geometry priors. Experiments on self-captured and public dash cam videos show that our method not only achieves state-of-the-art performance in novel view synthesis, but also accurately reconstructing captured scenes getting rid of obstructions.

Forecasting citations of scientific patents and publications is a crucial task for understanding the evolution and development of technological domains and for foresight into emerging technologies. By construing citations as a time series, the task can be cast into the domain of temporal point processes. Most existing work on forecasting with temporal point processes, both conventional and neural network-based, only performs single-step forecasting. In citation forecasting, however, the more salient goal is n -step forecasting: predicting the arrival of the next n citations. In this article, we propose Dynamic Multi-Context Attention Networks (DMA-Nets), a novel deep learning sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) model with a novel hierarchical dynamic attention mechanism for long-term citation forecasting. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed model learns better representations of conditional dependencies over historical sequences compared to state-of-the-art counterparts and thus achieves significant performance for citation predictions.

The US public school system is administered by local school districts. Each district comprises a set of schools mapped to attendance zones which are annually assessed to meet enrollment objectives. To support school officials in redrawing attendance boundaries, existing approaches have proven promising but still suffer from several challenges, including: 1) inability to scale to large school districts, 2) high computational cost of obtaining compact school attendance zones, and 3) lack of discussion on quantifying ethical considerations underlying the redrawing of school boundaries. Motivated by these challenges, this paper approaches the school redistricting problem from both computational and ethical standpoints. First, we introduce a practical framework based on sampling methods to solve school redistricting as a graph partitioning problem. Next, the advantages of adopting a modified objective function for optimizing discrete geometry to obtain compact boundaries are examined. Lastly, alternative metrics to address ethical considerations in real-world scenarios are formally defined and thoroughly discussed. Our findings highlight the inclusiveness and efficiency advantages of the designed framework and depict how tradeoffs need to be made to obtain qualitatively different school redistricting plans.

Meta-learning has emerged as a trending technique to tackle few-shot text classification and achieve state-of-the-art performance.However, the performance of existing approaches heavily depends on the inter-class variance of the support set.As a result, it can perform well on tasks when the semantics of sampled classes are distinct while failing to differentiate classes with similar semantics.In this paper, we propose a novel Task-Adaptive Reference Transformation (TART) network, aiming to enhance the generalization by transforming the class prototypes to per-class fixed reference points in task-adaptive metric spaces.To further maximize divergence between transformed prototypes in task-adaptive metric spaces, TART introduces a discriminative reference regularization among transformed prototypes.Extensive experiments are conducted on four benchmark datasets and our method demonstrates clear superiority over the stateof-the-art models in all the datasets.In particular, our model surpasses the state-of-the-art method by 7.4% and 5.4% in 1-shot and 5-shot classification on the 20 Newsgroups dataset, respectively.

This paper presents an innovative framework developed to identify, analyze, and generate memorable experiences in the hotel industry. People prefer memorable experiences over traditional services or products in today's ever-changing consumer world. As a result, the hospitality industry has shifted its focus toward creating unique and unforgettable experiences rather than just providing essential services. Despite the inherent subjectivity and difficulties in quantifying experiences, the quest to capture and understand these critical elements in the hospitality context has persisted. However, traditional methods have proven inadequate due to their reliance on objective surveys or limited social media data, resulting in a lack of diversity and potential bias. Our framework addresses these issues, offering a holistic solution that effectively identifies and extracts memorable experiences from online customer reviews, discerns trends on a monthly or yearly basis, and utilizes a local LLM to generate potential, unexplored experiences. As the first successfully deployed, fast, and accurate product of its kind in the industry, This framework significantly contributes to the hotel industry's efforts to enhance services and create compelling, personalized experiences for its customers.

This paper introduces HyperMAD, a novel Hypergraph Convolutional Network model designed for the multiclass classification of mental health advice in Arabic tweets. The model distinguishes between misleading and valid advice, further categorizing each tweet into specific classes of advice. HyperMAD leverages high-order relations between words in short texts, captured through the definition of four types of hyperedges that represent local and global contexts as well as semantic similarity. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of HyperMAD, with results outperforming those from existing baselines. The study also includes an ablation study to investigate the significance and contribution of each hyperedge type. The paper presents a case study analyzing the accuracy and types of Arabic mental health advice on Twitter, revealing that about 9% of the advice in response to mental health expressions on Twitter was accurate in general. The paper concludes with the hope that the application of HyperMAD can be utilized in flagging misleading responses on social media, providing the correct resources for those who choose to share their mental health struggles online.

For both investors and policymakers, forecasting the stock market is essential as it serves as an indicator of economic well-being. To this end, we harness the power of social media data, a rich source of public sentiment, to enhance the accuracy of stock market predictions. Diverging from conventional methods, we pioneer an approach that integrates sentiment analysis, macroeconomic indicators, search engine data, and historical prices within a multi-attention deep learning model, masterfully decoding the complex patterns inherent in the data. We showcase the state-of-the-art performance of our proposed model using a dataset, specifically curated by us, for predicting stock market movements and volatility.

Automated detection of depression using Electroencephalogram (EEG) signals is crucial for advanced disease treatment. However, existing EEG detection models still face challenges. 1) EEG signals are susceptible to noise interference and exhibit a high level of randomness. 2) Manual denoising and feature selection potentially introduce human bias. 3) The integrated message propagation across both spatial and temporal domains is not fully explored. Therefore, this paper proposes LightK-DSGCN, Enhancing Depression Detection with Lightweight Kalman Filter-aided Dual-Stream Graph Convolutional Networks, a novel framework for identifying characteristics EEG patterns of depression patients. LightK-DSGCN leverages dual-stream graph neural networks to simultaneously explore spatiotemporal features, effectively capturing the distinctive patterns exhibited by depression patients. Firstly, the EEG signals are decomposed into temporal and spatial components at each time point. Then, the temporal features are embedded using a dilation temporal convolutional network, while the spatial features are obtained through a graph convolutional network. Moreover, a lightweight Kalman filter combined with recurrent neural networks is proposed to denoise and align the spatiotemporal features, enabling the extraction of detailed information from multiple perspectives. Experimental results on two real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our LightK-DSGCN over state-of-the-art methods in detecting depression using EEG signals. LightK-DSGCN provides a promising approach for automated depression detection in clinical practice. The code can be found here.

Edge prediction is a fundamental challenge in network science, with broad applications, notably in social networks. It plays a crucial role in unveiling complex system dynamics by forecasting connections between entities. Our paper introduces UniMHe (Unified Multi Hyperedge Prediction), a novel framework for predicting multiple hyperedges associated with each node using hypergraph representations. We present a case study focused on crime network analysis, where UniMHe reveals intricate patterns in criminal activities, including crime types, locations, and seasonal variations. Our research leverages extensive historical crime data encompassing geographical information, timestamps, points of interest, and crime categories. In an extensive evaluation, we benchmark UniMHe against state-of-the-art hypergraph deep learning techniques, highlighting its superior performance. These findings underscore the significance of UniMHe across various domains and problem-solving scenarios.

With the proliferation of bots on social media platforms, especially X, the need for effective and efficient bot detection mechanisms has never been more paramount. However, the inherent imbalance between the number of genuine users and bots presents a significant challenge, often leading to biased classifiers. In this paper, we introduce HyperSMOTE, a novel approach for imbalanced node classification leveraging the rich structure of hypergraphs. By representing X users as nodes and their interactions as hyperedges, we construct a hypergraph that captures the intricate relationships and interactions among users. This hypergraph-based representation allows for a more nuanced understanding of user behavior and interactions, providing a robust foundation for bot detection. HyperSMOTE addresses the class imbalance by generating synthetic bot accounts in the hypergraph, ensuring a balanced training dataset while preserving the hypergraph’s semantics. Our method significantly outperforms existing baselines across various metrics, demonstrating its efficacy. We further delve into the impact of different upsampling scales on classification performance, providing insights into the optimal configurations for HyperSMOTE.

The prompt estimation of traffic incident impacts (TIIs) plays a crucial role in guiding commuters’ trip planning and enhancing the decision-making resilience of transportation agencies. Despite the strong capability of spatiotemporal modeling, the gap between the TII prediction and the dynamic data mining approaches has not been seamlessly filled. (1) The TII evaluation metrics have never been well-defined, although many criteria for TII exist in research works. (2) Previous attempts heavily rely on predefined road network structures and underscore vital features, leading to inaccurate TII predictions. (3) Predicting the spatiotemporal TII using dynamic road networks is more challenging as it requires extracting both abnormal sub-graph and long-range dependencies due to the large variation of incident clearance time. This research proposes RoadFormer, a novel Road-Anchored Adversarial Dynamic Graph Transformer, for predicting unlimited-range spatiotemporal TIIs. (1) We introduce novel criteria for assessing spatiotemporal TIIs and construct two new benchmark datasets to validate the performance of our methods. (2) RoadFormer leverages a road-anchored spatial transformer and an importance-score temporal transformer to form an encoder-decoder framework. The road-anchored spatial transformer prunes unnecessary edges between nodes with a road-anchored cascade attention mechanism, accurately pinpointing the affected sub-graphs. (3) The importance-score temporal transformer highlights abnormal changes in node features with a score-based adversarial training mechanism, enabling predictions to rely on informative feature changes after the accident occurrence. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that RoadFormer outperforms the state-of the-art methods, especially in capturing spatiotemporal dependency patterns and predicting unlimited-range spatiotemporal TIIs.

Predicting stock market is vital for investors and policymakers, acting as a barometer of the economic health. We leverage social media data, a potent source of public sentiment, in tandem with macroeconomic indicators as government-compiled statistics, to refine stock market predictions. However, prior research using tweet data for stock market prediction faces three challenges. First, the quality of tweets varies widely. While many are filled with noise and irrelevant details, only a few genuinely mirror the actual market scenario. Second, solely focusing on the historical data of a particular stock without considering its sector can lead to oversight. Stocks within the same industry often exhibit correlated price behaviors. Lastly, simply forecasting the direction of price movement without assessing its magnitude is of limited value, as the extent of the rise or fall truly determines profitability. In this paper, diverging from the conventional methods, we pioneer an ECON (A Framework Leveraging Tweets, Macroeconomic Indicators, and Historical Prices to Predict Stock Movement and Volatility). The framework has following advantages: First, ECON has an adept tweets filter that efficiently extracts and decodes the vast array of tweet data. Second, ECON discerns multi-level relationships among stocks, sectors, and macroeconomic factors through a self-aware mechanism in semantic space. Third, ECON offers enhanced accuracy in predicting substantial stock price fluctuations by capitalizing on stock price movement. We showcase the state-of-the-art performance of our proposed model using a dataset, specifically curated by us, for predicting stock market movements and volatility.

Mental health conditions affect millions of people today. While existing work on predicting mental health conditions from social media text focuses largely on depression and similar conditions, other less prominent disorders like bipolar tend not to receive in-depth analysis. Furthermore, these works tend not to analyze or model the correlated nature of these different disorders and conditions. To account for the coexistence and correlation of multiple mental health conditions, this paper introduces DeMHeM, a novel multitask framework designed for the descriptive classification of bipolar and related mental health topics on online platforms like Reddit. By treating each mental health category as a separate task, DeMHeM leverages both the shared latent and task-specific semantic feature space by integrating sentence-level and topic-level embeddings. It further incorporates Focal Loss for joint learning, inter-task parameter sharing, and regularization decay to optimize the prediction for the naturally skewed imbalanced dataset. Hence, the model distinguishes between different mental health categories and also models the correlation among them by categorizing each post into potentially multiple mental health categories. Next, we focus on a more insightful analysis by leveraging the predicted outcome of the model to study how the discussions differ based on the type and coexistence of different mental disorders. We analyze the entirety of the “r/bipolar” subreddit by applying our trained model to predict a category and then implementing keyword extraction techniques on each predicted combination of mental health conditions to understand the specific nuances in the discussion of bipolar disorder. Our results show that DeMHeM surpassed the baseline models and can be used to understand the multi-faceted discussion of mental health topics for a given community.

Recent research has explored the use of graph neural networks (GNNs) for decentralized control in swarm robotics. However, it has been observed that relying solely on local states is insufficient to imitate a centralized control policy. To address this limitation, previous studies proposed incorporating K-hop delayed states into the computation. While this approach shows promise, it can lead to a lack of consensus among distant flock members and the formation of small localized groups, ultimately resulting in task failure. Our approach is to include the delayed states to build a spatiotemporal GNN model (ST-GNN) by two levels of expansion: spatial expansion and temporal expansion. The spatial expansion utilizes K-hop delayed states to broaden the network while temporal expansion, can effectively predict the trend of swarm behavior, making it more robust against local noise. To validate the effectiveness of our approach, we conducted simulations in two distinct scenarios: free flocking and flocking with a leader. In both scenarios, the simulation results demonstrated that our decentralized ST-GNN approach successfully overcomes the limitations of local controllers. We performed a comprehensive analysis on the effectiveness of spatial expansions and temporal expansions independently. The results clearly demonstrate that both significantly improve overall performance. Furthermore, when combined, they achieve the best performance compared to global solution and delayed states solutions. The performance of ST-GNN underscores its potential as an effective and reliable approach for achieving cohesive flocking behavior while ensuring safety and maintaining desired swarm characteristics.

Remote sensing image semantic segmentation is an important problem for remote sensing image interpretation. Although remarkable progress has been achieved, existing deep neural network methods suffer from the reliance on massive training data. Few-shot remote sensing semantic segmentation aims at learning to segment target objects from a query image using only a few annotated support images of the target class. Most existing few-shot learning methods stem primarily from their sole focus on extracting information from support images, thereby failing to effectively address the large variance in appearance and scales of geographic objects. To tackle these challenges, we propose a Self-Correlation and Cross-Correlation Learning Network for the few-shot remote sensing image semantic segmentation. Our model enhances the generalization by considering both self-correlation and cross-correlation between support and query images to make segmentation predictions. To further explore the self-correlation with the query image, we propose to adopt a classical spectral method to produce a class-agnostic segmentation mask based on the basic visual information of the image. Extensive experiments on two remote sensing image datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of our model in few-shot remote sensing image semantic segmentation. The code is available at https://github.com/linhanwang/SCCNet.

This work develops a node-edge co-evolution model for attributed graph transformation, where both the node and edge attributes undergo changes due to complex interactions. Due to two fundamental obstacles, learning and approximating attributed graph transformation have not been thoroughly explored: 1) the difficulty of jointly considering four types of atomic interactions including nodes-to-edges, nodes-to-nodes, edges-to-nodes, and edges-to-edges interactions. 2) the difficulty of capturing iterative long-range interactions between nodes and edges. To solve these issues, we offer a novel and scalable equilibrium model, NEC∞, with node-edge message passing and edge-node message passing. Additionally, we propose an efficient optimization algorithm that is based on implicit gradient theorem and includes a theoretical analysis of NEC∞. The effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed model have been demonstrated through extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world data sets.

Few-shot text classification has extensive application where the sample collection is expensive or complicated. When the penalty for classification errors is high, such as early threat event detection with scarce data, we expect to know "whether we should trust the classification results or reexamine them.'' This paper investigates the Uncertainty Estimation for Few-shot Text Classification (UEFTC), an unexplored research area. Given limited samples, a UEFTC model predicts an uncertainty score for a classification result, which is the likelihood that the classification result is false. However, many traditional uncertainty estimation models in text classification are unsuitable for implementing a UEFTC model. These models require numerous training samples, whereas the few-shot setting in UEFTC only provides a few or just one support sample for each class in an episode. We propose Contrastive Learning from Uncertainty Relations (CLUR) to address UEFTC. CLUR can be trained with only one support sample for each class with the help of pseudo uncertainty scores. Unlike previous works that manually set the pseudo uncertainty scores, CLUR self-adaptively learns them using our proposed uncertainty relations. Specifically, we explore four model structures in CLUR to investigate the performance of three common-used contrastive learning components in UEFTC and find that two of the components are effective. Experiment results prove that CLUR outperforms six baselines on four datasets, including an improvement of 4.52% AUPR on an RCV1 dataset in a 5-way 1-shot setting. Our code and data split for UEFTC are in https://github.com/he159ok/CLUR_UncertaintyEst_FewShot_TextCls.

Metro systems are vital to our daily lives, but they face safety or reliability challenges, such as criminal activities or infrastructure disruptions, respectively. Real-time threat detection and analysis are crucial to ensure their safety and reliability. Although many existing systems use Twitter to detect metro-related threats or events in real-time, they have limitations in event analysis and system maintenance. Specifically, they cannot analyze event development, or prioritize events from numerous tweets. Besides, their users are required to continuously monitor system notifications, use inefficient content retrieval methods, and perform detailed system maintenance. We addressed those issues by developing the MetroScope system, a real-time threat/event detection system applied to Washington D.C. metro system. MetroScope can automatically analyze event development, prioritize events based on urgency, send emergency notifications via emails, provide efficient content retrieval, and self-maintain the system. Our MetroScope system is now available at http://orion.nvc.cs.vt.edu:5000/, with a video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKIK9M60-J8) introducing its features and instructions. MetroScope is a significant advancement in enhancing the safety and reliability of metro systems.

For decades, the spread of disinformation in online social networks (OSNs) has been a serious social issue. Disinformation via social media can easily mislead people’s beliefs toward or against an event that may mislead their behaviors based on the misbeliefs. The game theory approaches have been proposed under dynamic settings to limit the adverse influences of disinformation. It is a challenge to expand the users’ game strategies from the spreading decisions to the possible opinion updating choices. This work proposes a game-theoretic opinion framework that can formulate dynamic opinions by a belief model called Subjective Logic (SL) and provide opinion updates on five types of users’ interactions on OSN platforms. The opinions are updated based on user choices and user types through the game interactions among legitimate users, attackers, and a defender in an OSN. Via the extensive simulation experiments, the effectiveness of the opinion models of five decision-makers (DMs) is analyzed in terms of users believing or disbelieving disinformation in an epidemic model with parameter optimization. Our results show that while homophily-based DMs (H-DMs) introduce the highest opinion polarization, uncertainty-based DMs (U-DMs) can effectively filter untrustworthy users propagating disinformation.

Predicting and quantifying the impact of traffic accidents is necessary and critical to Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS). As a state-of-the-art technique in graph learning, current graph neural networks heavily rely on graph Fourier transform, assuming homophily among the neighborhood. However, the homophily assumption makes it challenging to characterize abrupt signals such as traffic accidents. Our paper proposes an abrupt graph wavelet network (AGWN) to model traffic accidents and predict their time durations using only one single snapshot.

Chinese characters have semantic-rich compositional information in radical form. While almost all previous research has applied CNNs to extract this compositional information, our work utilizes deep graph learning on a compact, graph-based representation of Chinese characters. This allows us to exploit temporal information within the strict stroke order used in writing characters. Our results show that our stroke-based model has potential for helping large-scale language models on some Chinese natural language understanding tasks. In particular, we demonstrate that our graph model produces more interpretable embeddings shown through word subtraction analogies and character embedding visualizations.

Influence blocking maximization (IBM) is crucial in many critical real-world problems such as rumors prevention and epidemic containment. The existing work suffers from: (1) concentrating on uniform costs at the individual level, (2) mostly utilizing greedy approaches to approximate optimization, (3) lacking a proper graph representation for influence estimates. To address these issues, this research introduces a neural network model dubbed Neural Influence Blocking (\algo) for improved approximation and enhanced influence blocking effectiveness. The code is available at https://github.com/oates9895/NIB.

Many real-world networks evolve over time, which results in dynamic graphs such as human mobility networks and brain networks. Usually, the “dynamics on graphs” (e.g., node attribute values evolving) are observable, and may be related to and indicative of the underlying “dynamics of graphs” (e.g., evolving of the graph topology). Traditional RNN-based methods are not adaptive or scalable for learn- ing the unknown mappings between two types of dynamic graph data. This study presents a AD-ESN, and adaptive echo state network that can automatically learn the best neural net- work architecture for certain data while keeping the efficiency advantage of echo state networks. We show that AD-ESN can successfully discover the underlying pre-defined map- ping function and unknown nonlinear map-ping between time series and graphs.

The drug abuse epidemic has been on the rise in the past few years, particularly after the start of COVID-19 pandemic. Our preliminary observations on Reddit alone show that discussions on drugs from 2018 to 2020 increased between a range of 45% to 200%, and so has the number of unique users participating in those discussions. Existing efforts focused on utilizing social media to distinguish potential drug abuse chats from unharmful chats regardless of what drug is being abused. Others focused on understanding the trends and causes of drug abuse from social media. To this end, we introduce PRISTINE (opioid crisis detection on reddit), our work dynamically detects-and extracts evolving misleading drug names from Reddit comments using reinforced Dynamic Query Expansion (DQE) and constructs a textual Graph Convolutional Network with the aid of powerful pre-trained embeddings to detect which type of drug class a Reddit comment corresponds to. Further, we perform extensive experiments to investigate the effectiveness of our model.

One of the strongest indicators of a mental health crisis is how people interact with each other or express them-selves. Hence, social media is an ideal source to extract user-level information about the language used to express personal feelings. In the wake of the ever-increasing mental health crisis in the United States, it is imperative to analyze the general well-being of a population and investigate how their public social media posts can be used to detect different underlying mental health conditions. For that purpose, we propose a study that collects posts from “reddits” related to different mental health topics to detect the type of the post and the nature of the mental health issues that correlate to the post. The task of detecting mental health related issues indicates the mental health conditions connected to the posts. To achieve this, we develop a multi-task learning model that leverages, for each post, both the latent embedding space of words and topics for prediction with a message passing mechanism enabling the sharing of information for related tasks. We train the model through an active learning approach in order to tackle the lack of standardized fine-grained label data for this specific task.

Drug overdose deaths are a dreadful crisis that leads to substantial societal impairments. Its harmful impact directly affects families and communities. To assist policymakers in mitigating this crisis, it is crucial to study the societal, economic, and criminal contributing factors linked to the crisis. Unfortunately, current data-driven works assume a singular factor, such as poverty being the cause and disregarding other realistic causes. Besides, recent works exhibited a lack of explainable models and spatial analysis of the crisis. Thus, DOD-Explainer links the gap by developing a realistic framework that predicts highly impacted counties of drug overdose deaths from crime and socioeconomic data. DOD-Explainer overcomes the challenge of data scarcity by proposing three data augmentation methods. Then, an algorithm is proposed to provide realistic explanations of the leading causes of the crisis. The results show that our application achieves the best predictive accuracy from several models, accurately identifies the most/least impacted counties by the crisis, and reveals the most contributing factors of drug overdoses.

Social media platforms have become an easy method of communication for many users. Content posted on social media can influence those who are exposed to it, and users who posted that content are referred to as influencers. Identifying influencers has many applications in marketing, politics, and even health awareness. While research identifying influential users across multiple fields has been studied extensively, users’ influence varies in different topics. Recent studies in topic-specific influence have shown that identifying influencers on the topic-level is more effective. However, most of the existing influencer detection approaches focus only on influential user identification and do not consider that some content can be influential regardless of who published it. This paper investigates the problem of detecting topic-specific influential users and tweets in Twitter datasets. We introduce HyperTwitter, a framework that uses a Twitter sub-graph consisting of users, tweets, and interactions as input. HyperTwitter generates a hypergraph with hyperedges of two types: networks and topic edges, then measures the topic distribution for both users and tweets. With this distribution and the constructed hypergraph, we create a local, topic-based influence ranking for each user and tweet. We conduct extensive experiments with two Twitter datasets and show that the proposed framework outperforms existing baselines significantly.

The vast presence of bots on Twitter requires reliable and accurate bot detection methods that differentiate legitimate bots from malicious ones. Despite the success of those methods, they fail to address the following challenges: (1) the huge size of datasets required to train a model to detect bots, (2) the constant evolution in bot accounts to evade automatic detection leads to scarcity in ground truth real-world datasets, and (3) the complexity in learning representations of a heterogeneous attributed network like Twitter. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, ADNET, to detect anomalies in Twitter-attributed networks using the least amount of labeled data. Specifically, we address the limitations of previous methods by proposing a topology-based active learning framework that uses a deep autoencoder to train the model and is able to handle large graphs better than previous methods. Our experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods in detecting anomalous bot accounts and reduces the annotation cost in Twitter attributed networks.

Virtual hospitals empower traditional hospitals to deliver more accessible, affordable, and comprehensive patient-centered (PC) care services. However, the legacy information systems of traditional hospitals are ill-equipped to support the needs of virtual hospitals. We propose a holistic virtual hospital ecosystem design that addresses these issues. We have developed two models. The first is a VHealth-CNN model that extracts PC knowledge from multi-sourced biomedical big data by (1) extracting disease health-related features; (2) structuring the relevant health-related features as per the pre-identified factors; (3) training a convolutional neural network (CNN) double-layer structure, where we select significant health-related features in the first layer, and classify the positively and negatively correlated features in the second one; and (4) generating disease class outputs representing the PC knowledge. The second model is a granular VHealth-AC model that seamlessly grants healthcare practitioners at a hub hospital remote access to PC knowledge at the right point of care. We have deployed a granular 5-tier PC information classification scheme to enforce information security rules across hospitals. In addition, we examined the feasibility of the proposed design through a tele-monitoring service experimental case study for predicting obesity, hypertension, and diabetes. The experimental results show that the proposed model predicts obesity, hypertension, and diabetes diagnoses with 91.3%, 93.5%, and 95% accuracy, respectively. Finally, our ecosystem design should encourage the adoption of virtual hospitals and the adoption of virtual healthcare services as a new norm.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused hate speech on online social networks to become a growing issue in recent years, affecting millions. Our work aims to improve automatic hate speech detection to prevent escalation to hate crimes. The first c hallenge i n h ate s peech r esearch i s t hat e xisting datasets suffer from quite severe class imbalances. The second challenge is the sparsity of information in textual data. The third challenge is the difficulty i n b alancing t he t radeoff b etween utilizing semantic similarity and noisy network language. To combat these challenges, we establish a framework for automatic short text data augmentation by using a semi-supervised hybrid of Substitution Based Augmentation and Dynamic Query Expansion (DQE), which we refer to as SubDQE, to extract more data points from a specific c lass f rom T witter. W e a lso p ropose the HateNet model, which has two main components, a Graph Convolutional Network and a Weighted Drop-Edge. First, we propose a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) classifier, using a graph constructed from the thresholded cosine similarities between tweet embeddings to provide new insights into how ideas are connected. Second, we propose a weighted Drop-Edge based stochastic regularization technique, which removes edges randomly based on weighted probabilities assigned by the semantic similarities between Tweets. Using 3 different SubDQE-augmented datasets, we compare our HateNet model using eight different tweet embedding methods, six other baseline classification models, and seven other baseline data augmentation techniques previously used in the realm of hate speech detection. Our results show that our proposed HateNet model matches or exceeds the performance of the baseline models, as indicated by the accuracy and F1 score.

Ever since the COVID-19 outbreak, various works have focused on using multitude of different static and dynamic features to aid the prediction of disease forecasting models. However, in the absence of historical pandemic data these models will not be able to give any meaningful insight about the areas which are most likely to be affected based on preexisting conditions. Furthermore, the black box nature of neural networks often becomes an impediment for the concerned authorities to derive any meaning from. In this paper, we propose a novel explainable Graph Neural Network (GNN) framework called Graph-COVID-19-Explainer (GC-Explainer) that gives explainable prediction for the severity of the spread during initial outbreak. We utilize a comprehensive set of static population characteristics to use as node features of Graph where each node corresponds to a geographical region. Unlike post-hoc methods of GNN explanations, we propose a framework for learning important features during the training of the model. We further apply our model on real-world early pandemic data to show the validity of our approach. Through GC-Explainer, we show that static features along with spatial dependency among regions can be used to explain the varied degree of severity in outbreak during the early part of the pandemic and provide a framework to identify the at-risk areas for any infectious disease outbreak, especially when historical data is not available.

Predicting and measuring the impact of traffic collisions is crucial for Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). Numerous works in this field have successfully applied graph neural networks to ITS. Existing research on graph neural networks mainly relies on the graph Fourier transform, assuming neighborhood homophily. The homophily assumption, on the other hand, makes it difficult to define abrupt signals such as traffic accidents. Our research proposes an abrupt graph wavelet network (AGWN) for forecasting the durations of traffic incidents using a single shot. To begin, graph wavelet (GW) is theoretically examined in terms of linear separability in comparison to graph Fourier (GF), demonstrating its advantage in modeling abrupt graph signals. Sensitivity analysis and admissibility conditions are utilized to further study the behavior of GW in abrupt graph signals, justifying the use of zero sum function as wavelet kernel. The synthetic data results support our proposed wavelet kernel's effectiveness in modeling a variety of abrupt signals, while real-world trials demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms baseline models in forecasting the duration of an accident impact.

In today’s era of big data, robust least-squares regression becomes a more challenging problem when considering the extremely corrupted labels along with explosive growth of datasets. Traditional robust methods can handle the noise but suffer from several challenges when applied in huge dataset including (1) computational infeasibility of handling an entire dataset at once, (2) existence of heterogeneously distributed corruption, and (3) difficulty in corruption estimation when data cannot be entirely loaded. This article proposes online and distributed robust regression approaches, both of which can concurrently address all the above challenges. Specifically, the distributed algorithm optimizes the regression coefficients of each data block via heuristic hard thresholding and combines all the estimates in a distributed robust consolidation. In addition, an online version of the distributed algorithm is proposed to incrementally update the existing estimates with new incoming data. Furthermore, a novel online robust regression method is proposed to estimate under a biased-batch corruption. We also prove that our algorithms benefit from strong robustness guarantees in terms of regression coefficient recovery with a constant upper bound on the error of state-of-the-art batch methods. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that our approaches are superior to those of existing methods in effectiveness, with competitive efficiency.

The forecasting of significant societal events such as civil unrest and economic crisis is an interesting and challenging problem which requires both timeliness, precision, and comprehensiveness. Significant societal events are influenced and indicated jointly by multiple aspects of a society, including its economics, politics, and culture. Traditional forecasting methods based on a single data source find it hard to cover all these aspects comprehensively, thus limiting model performance. Multi-source event forecasting has proven promising but still suffers from several challenges, including (1) geographical hierarchies in multi-source data features, (2) hierarchical missing values, (3) characterization of structured feature sparsity, and (4) difficulty in model’s online update with incomplete multiple sources. This article proposes a novel feature learning model that concurrently addresses all the above challenges. Specifically, given multi-source data from different geographical levels, we design a new forecasting model by characterizing the lower-level features’ dependence on higher-level features. To handle the correlations amidst structured feature sets and deal with missing values among the coupled features, we propose a novel feature learning model based on an N th-order strong hierarchy and fused-overlapping group Lasso. An efficient algorithm is developed to optimize model parameters and ensure global optima. More importantly, to enable the model update in real time, the online learning algorithm is formulated and active set techniques are leveraged to resolve the crucial challenge when new patterns of missing features appear in real time. Extensive experiments on 10 datasets in different domains demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed models.

Modeling the spatiotemporal nature of the spread of infectious diseases can provide useful intuition in understanding the time-varying aspect of the disease spread and the underlying complex spatial dependency observed in people's mobility patterns. Besides, the county level multiple related time series information can be leveraged to make a forecast on an individual time series. Adding to this challenge is the fact that real-time data often deviates from the unimodal Gaussian distribution assumption and may show some complex mixed patterns. Motivated by this, we develop a deep learning-based time-series model for probabilistic forecasting called Auto-regressive Mixed Density Dynamic Diffusion Network (ARM3Dnet), which considers both people's mobility and disease spread as a diffusion process on a dynamic directed graph. The Gaussian Mixture Model layer is implemented to consider the multimodal nature of the realtime data while learning from multiple related time series. We show that our model, when trained with the best combination of dynamic covariate features and mixture components, can outperform both traditional statistical and deep learning models in forecasting the number of Covid-19 deaths and cases at the county level in the United States.

Existing COVID-19 prediction models focus on studying the dynamic nature of the virus spread by using pandemic-related temporal data. In this paper, we present a work that exclusively uses comprehensive socioeconomic factors to predict the high risk areas of COVID-19 infection based on fine-grained static spatial analysis. Moreover, the most and least influential socioeconomic factors on COVID-19 spread are identified. This paper uses a uniquely built dataset by combining local states’ cumulative COVID-19 statistics and their associated socioeconomic features on the zip code level. Further, the work solves the lack of data by augmentation. To evaluate the work, four case studies are conducted on Florida, Illinois, Minnesota, and Virginia. Experimental results show that the study provides accurate predictions with respect to ground truth data. By identifying high risk areas and socioeconomic factors, policymakers can use this study to take necessary measures to help disadvantaged communities.

Predicting the impact of traffic i ncidents b ased on traffic s ensor d ata i s a n e ssential r esearch t opic i n t he fi eld of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). Tackling the problem of estimating the durations of incidents from their early stages is a challenge due to the variable nature of such incidents and the complex structure of modern road networks. Existing studies on forecasting the incident duration from sensor data are mostly incapable of modeling 1) the spatiotemporal correlations of traffic s ensors a nd a rterial r oads a nd 2 ) t he hierarchical topology of the traffic sensor and road networks. In this paper, we propose the Hierarchical Attention-based Spatiotemporal Graph Convolutional Network model (HastGCN) to solve the incident duration forecasting problem by formulating the spatiotemporal correlation and traffic p atterns o n b oth t he s ensor l evel and the road level in their natural hierarchical manner. At the sensor level, we propose a spatiotemporal attention mechanism followed by graph convolutions to model the local correlations and patterns between traffic s ensors o n t he s ame a rterial road. At the road level, a connectivity-aware attention mechanism is designed to learn the global spatial relatedness between each arterial road. Traffic-condition a ware g raph c onvolutions are then applied to understand the target incident representation for the incident duration forecasting.

Automated characterization of spatial data is a kind of critical geographical intelligence. As an emerging technique for characterization, Spatial Representation Learning (SRL) uses deep neural networks (DNNs) to learn non-linear embedded features of spatial data for characterization. However, SRL extracts features by internal layers of DNNs, and thus suffers from lacking semantic labels. Texts of spatial entities, on the other hand, provide semantic understanding of latent feature labels, but is insensible to deep SRL models. How can we teach a SRL model to discover appropriate topic labels in texts and pair learned features with the labels? This paper formulates a new problem: feature-topic pairing, and proposes a novel Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) based deep learning framework. Specifically, we formulate the feature-topic pairing problem into an automated alignment task between 1) a latent embedding feature space and 2) a textual semantic topic space. We decompose the alignment of the two spaces into: 1) point-wise alignment, denoting the correlation between a topic distribution and an embedding vector; 2) pair-wise alignment, denoting the consistency between a feature-feature similarity matrix and a topic-topic similarity matrix. We design a PSO based solver to simultaneously select an optimal set of topics and learn corresponding features based on the selected topics. We develop a closed loop algorithm to iterate between 1) minimizing losses of representation reconstruction and feature-topic alignment and 2) searching the best topics. Finally, we present extensive experiments to demonstrate the enhanced performance of our method.

Despite the great progress made by deep neural networks in the semantic segmentation task, traditional neural-network-based methods typically suffer from a shortage of large amounts of pixel-level annotations. Recent progress in few-shot semantic segmentation tackles the issue by only a few pixel-level annotated examples. However, these few-shot approaches cannot easily be applied to multi-way or weak an-notation settings. In this paper, we advance the few-shot segmentation paradigm towards a scenario where image-level an-notations are available to help the training process of a few pixel-level annotations. Our key idea is to learn a better prototype representation of the class by fusing the knowledge from the image-level labeled data. Specifically, we propose a new framework, called PAIA, to learn the class prototype representation in a metric space by integrating image-level annotations. Furthermore, by considering the uncertainty of pseudo-masks, a distilled soft masked average pooling strategy is designed to handle distractions in image-level annotations. Extensive empirical results on two datasets show superior performance of PAIA.

Linking topics to specific experts in technical documents and finding connections between experts are crucial for detecting the evolution of emerging topics and the relationships between their influencers in state-of-the-art research. Current techniques that make such connections are limited to similarity measures. Methods based on weights such as TF-IDF and frequency to identify important topics and self joins between topics and experts are generally utilized to identify connections between experts. However, such approaches are inadequate for identifying emerging keywords and experts since the most useful terms in technical documents tend to be infrequent and concentrated in just a few documents. This makes connecting experts through joins on large dense graphs challenging. In this article, we present DIGDUG, a framework that identifies emerging topics by applying graph operations to technical terms. The framework identifies connections between authors of patents and journal papers by performing joins on connected topics and topics associated with the authors at scale. The problem of scaling the graph operations for topics and experts is solved throughdense graph pruningand graph joins categorized under their own scalable separable dense graph class. Experiments were performed on technical domains to validate the utility of the connections between interests and experts. Comparing our graph join and pruning technique against multiple graph and join methods in MapReduce revealed a significant improvement in performance using our approach.

Public school boundaries are redrawn from time to time to ensure effective functioning of school systems. This process, also called school redistricting, is non-trivial due to (1) the presence of multiple design criteria such as capacity utilization, proximity and travel time which are hard for planners to consider simultaneously, (2) the fixed locations of schools with widely differing capacities that need to be balanced, (3) the spatial nature of the data and the need to preserve contiguity in school zones, and (4) the difficulty in quantifying local factors that may arise. Motivated by these challenges and the intricacy of the process, we propose a geospatial clustering algorithm called GeoKmeans for assisting planners in designing school boundaries such that students are assigned to proximal schools while ensuring effective utilization of school capacities. The algorithm operates on polygonal geometries and connects them into geographically contiguous school boundaries while balancing problem-specific constraints. We evaluate our approach on real-world data of two rapidly growing school districts in the US. Results indicate the efficacy of our approach in designing boundaries. Additionally, a case study is included to demonstrate the potential of GeoKmeans to assist planners in drawing boundaries.

With the advance of sensor technologies, the Multivariate Time Series classification (MTSC) problem, perhaps one of the most essential problems in the time series data mining domain, has continuously received a significant amount of attention in recent decades. Traditional time series classification approaches based on Bag-of-Patterns or Time Series Shapelet have difficulty dealing with the huge amounts of feature candidates generated in high-dimensional multivariate data but have promising performance even when the training set is small. In contrast, deep learning based methods can learn low-dimensional features efficiently but suffer from a shortage of labelled data. In this paper, we propose a novel MTSC model with an attentional prototype network to take the strengths of both traditional and deep learning based approaches. Specifically, we design a random group permutation method combined with multi-layer convolutional networks to learn the low-dimensional features from multivariate time series data. To handle the issue of limited training labels, we propose a novel attentional prototype network to train the feature representation based on their distance to class prototypes with inadequate data labels. In addition, we extend our model into its semi-supervised setting by utilizing the unlabeled data. Extensive experiments on 18 datasets in a public UEA Multivariate time series archive with eight state-of-the-art baseline methods exhibit the effectiveness of the proposed model.

The success of training accurate models strongly depends on the availability of a sufficient collection of precisely labeled data. However, real-world datasets contain erroneously labeled data samples that substantially hinder the performance of machine learning models. Meanwhile, well-labeled data is usually expensive to obtain and only a limited amount is available for training. In this paper, we consider the problem of training a robust model by using large-scale noisy data in conjunction with a small set of clean data. To leverage the information contained via the clean labels, we propose a novel self-paced robust learning algorithm (SPRL) that trains the model in a process from more reliable (clean) data instances to less reliable (noisy) ones under the supervision of well-labeled data. The self-paced learning process hedges the risk of selecting corrupted data into the training set. Moreover, theoretical analyses on the convergence of the proposed algorithm are provided under mild assumptions. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed approach can achieve a considerable improvement in effectiveness and robustness to existing methods.

Open and accessible public utilities such as mass public transit systems are some of the vexing venues that are vulnerable to several criminal acts due to the large volumes of commuters. Existing forms of threat or event detection for the rail-based transit systems are either not working in real-time or do not provide complete coverage. In this paper, we present RISECURE1, an open-source system, that uses real-time social media mining to aid in the early detection of such possible events within a rail-based/metro system. The system leverages dynamic query expansion to keep track of any new emerging information about any particular incident. The Real Time Incident panel of the proposed system provides a comprehensible representation of the evolution of threatening transit events, which are further shown in the storyline modal for each respective station. The alert notification module of the system is capable of monitoring threats to the rail-based/metro systems in real-time. We demonstrate the system by including case studies involving incidents occurring within the Washington DC Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) metro system to justify the effectiveness of our approach.

Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, cyberbullying has become an even more serious threat. Our work aims to investigate the viability of an automatic multiclass cyberbullying detection model that is able to classify whether a cyberbully is targeting a victim's age, ethnicity, gender, religion, or other quality. Previous literature has not yet explored making fine-grained cyberbullying classifications o f s uch m agnitude, a nd existing cyberbullying datasets suffer from quite severe class imbalances. To combat these challenges, we establish a framework for the automatic generation of balanced data by using a semi-supervised online Dynamic Query Expansion (DQE) process to extract more natural data points of a specific class from Twitter. W e also propose a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) classifier, using a graph constructed from the thresholded cosine similarities between tweet embeddings. With our DQE-augmented dataset, which we have made publicly available, we compare our GCN model using eight different tweet embedding methods and six other classification models over two sizes of datasets. Our results show that our proposed GCN model matches or exceeds the performance of the baseline models, as indicated by McNemar statistical tests.

Circuit obfuscation has been proposed to protect digital integrated circuits (ICs) from different security threats such as reverse engineering by introducing ambiguity in the circuit, i.e., the addition of the logic gates whose functionality cannot be determined easily by the attacker. In order to conquer such defenses, techniques such as Boolean satisfiability-checking (SAT)-based attacks were introduced. SAT-attack can potentially decrypt the obfuscated circuits. However, the deobfuscation runtime could have a large span ranging from few milliseconds to a few years or more, depending on the number and location of obfuscated gates, the topology of the obfuscated circuit and obfuscation technique used. To ensure the security of the deployed obfuscation mechanism, it is essential to accurately pre-estimate the deobfuscation time. Thereby one can optimize the deployed defense in order to maximize the deobfuscation runtime. However, estimating the deobfuscation runtime is a challenging task due to 1) the complexity and heterogeneity of the graph-structured circuit, 2) the unknown and sophisticated mechanisms of the attackers for deobfuscation, 3) efficiency and scalability requirement in practice. To address the challenges mentioned above, this work proposes the first machine-learning framework that predicts the deobfuscation runtime based on graph deep learning. Specifically, we design a new model, ICNet with new input and convolution layers to characterize the circuit's topology, which is then integrated by composite deep fully-connected layers to obtain the deobfuscation runtime. The proposed ICNet is an end-to-end framework that can automatically extract the deter-minant features required for deobfuscation runtime prediction. Extensive experiments on standard benchmarks demonstrate its effectiveness and efficiency beyond many competitive baselines.

Jianfeng He, Xuchao Zhang, Shuo Lei, Zhiqian Chen, Fanglan Chen, Abdulaziz Alhamadani, Bei Xiao, ChangTien Lu. Proceedings of the 2020 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP). 2020.

Spatial optimization problems (SOPs) are characterized by spatial relationships governing the decision variables, objectives and/or constraint functions. These are mostly combinatorial problems (NP-hard) due to the presence of discrete spatial units. Hence, exact optimization methods cannot solve them optimally under practical time constraints, especially for large-sized instances. Motivated by this challenge, we explore the use of population-based metaheuristics for solving SOPs. To this end, we observe that the search moves employed by these methods are suited to real-parameter continuous search space rather. To adapt them to the SOPs, we explore the role of domain knowledge in designing spatially-aware search operators that can efficiently search for an optimal solution in discrete search space while respecting the spatial constraints. These modifications result in a simple yet highly effective spatial hybrid metaheuristic called SPATIAL, which is applied to the problem of school boundary formation (also called school redistricting). Experimental findings on real-world datasets reveal the efficacy of our algorithm in obtaining superior quality solutions in comparison to traditional baseline methods. Additionally, we perform an in-depth study of the individual components of our framework and highlight the flexibility of our method in assimilating other search operators as well as in adapting it to related SOPs.

Traffic prediction is a challenging task due to the time-varying nature of traffic patterns and the complex spatial dependency of road networks. Adding to the challenge, there are a number of errors introduced in traffic sensor reporting, including bias and noise. However, most of the previous works treat the sensor observations as exact measures ignoring the effect of unknown noise. To model the spatial and temporal dependencies, existing studies combine graph neural networks (GNNs) with other deep learning techniques but their equal weighting of different dependencies limits the models' ability to capture the real dynamics in the traffic network. To deal with the above issues, we propose a novel deep learning framework called Deep Kalman Filtering Network (DKFN) to forecast the network-wide traffic state by modeling the self and neighbor dependencies as two streams, and their predictions are fused under the statistical theory and optimized through the Kalman filtering network. First, the reliability of each stream is evaluated using variances. Then, the Kalman filter is leveraged to properly fuse noisy observations in terms of their reliability. Experimental results reflect the superiority of the proposed method over baseline models on two real-world traffic datasets in the speed prediction task.

Urban planning refers to the efforts of designing land-use configurations. Effective urban planning can help to mitigate the operational and social vulnerability of a urban system, such as high tax, crimes, traffic congestion and accidents, pollution, depression, and anxiety. Due to the high complexity of urban systems, such tasks are mostly completed by professional planners. But, human planners take longer time. The recent advance of deep learning motivates us to ask: can machines learn at a human capability to automatically and quickly calculate land-use configuration, so human planners can finally adjust machine-generated plans for specific needs? To this end, we formulate the automated urban planning problem into a task of learning to configure land-uses, given the surrounding spatial contexts. To set up the task, we define a land-use configuration as a longitude-latitude-channel tensor, where each channel is a category of POIs and the value of an entry is the number of POIs. The objective is then to propose an adversarial learning framework that can automatically generate such tensor for an unplanned area. In particular, we first characterize the contexts of surrounding areas of an unplanned area by learning representations from spatial graphs using geographic and human mobility data. Second, we combine each unplanned area and its surrounding context representation as a tuple, and categorize all the tuples into positive (well-planned areas) and negative samples (poorly-planned areas). Third, we develop an adversarial land-use configuration approach, where the surrounding context representation is fed into a generator to generate a land-use configuration, and a discriminator learns to distinguish among positive and negative samples. Finally, we devise two new measurements to evaluate the quality of land-use configurations and present extensive experiment and visualization results to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Probabilistic topic models, which can discover hidden patterns in documents, have been extensively studied. However, rather than learning from a single document collection, numerous real-world applications demand a comprehensive understanding of the relationships among various document sets. To address such needs, this article proposes a new model that can identify the common and discriminative aspects of multiple datasets. Specifically, our proposed method is a Bayesian approach that represents each document as a combination of common topics (shared across all document sets) and distinctive topics (distributions over words that are exclusive to a particular dataset). Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method compared with state-of-the-art models. The proposed model can be useful for “comparative thinking” analysis in real-world document collections.

Identification of travelers' transportation modes is a fundamental step for various problems that arise in the domain of transportation such as travel demand analysis, transport planning, and traffic management. In this paper, we aim to identify travelers' transportation modes purely based on their GPS trajectories. First, a segmentation process is developed to partition a user's trip into GPS segments with only one transportation mode. A majority of studies have proposed mode inference models based on hand-crafted features, which might be vulnerable to traffic and environmental conditions. Furthermore, the classification task in almost all models have been performed in a supervised fashion while a large amount of unlabeled GPS trajectories has remained unused. Accordingly, we propose a deep SEmi-Supervised Convolutional Autoencoder (SECA) architecture that can not only automatically extract relevant features from GPS segments but also exploit useful information in unlabeled data. The SECA integrates a convolutional-deconvolutional autoencoder and a convolutional neural network into a unified framework to concurrently perform supervised and unsupervised learning. The two components are simultaneously trained using both labeled and unlabeled GPS segments, which have already been converted into an efficient representation for the convolutional operation. An optimum schedule for varying the balancing parameters between reconstruction and classification errors are also implemented. The performance of the proposed SECA model, trip segmentation, the method for converting a raw trajectory into a new representation, the hyperparameter schedule, and the model configuration are evaluated by comparing to several baselines and alternatives for various amounts of labeled and unlabeled data. Our experimental results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model over the state-of-the-art semi-supervised and supervised methods with respect to metrics such as accuracy and F-measure.

Cybersecurity event detection is a crucial problem for mitigating effects on various aspects of society. Social media has become a notable source of indicators for detection of diverse events. Though previous social media based strategies for cyber-security event detection focus on mining certain event-related words, the dynamic and evolving nature of online discourse limits the performance of these approaches. Further, because these are typically unsupervised or weakly supervised learning strategies, they do not perform well in an environment of biased samples, noisy context, and informal language which is routine for online, user-generated content. This paper takes a supervised learning approach by proposing a novel multi-task learning based model. Our model can handle diverse structures in feature space by learning models for different types of potential high-profile targets simultaneously. For parameter optimization, we develop an efficient algorithm based on the alternating direction method of multipliers. Through extensive experiments on a real world Twitter dataset, we demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms existing methods at encoding and identifying cyber-security incidents.

Xuchao Zhang, Dheeraj Rajagopal, Michael Gamon, Sujay Kumar Jauhar, ChangTien Lu. Proceedings of the 2019 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing and the 9th International Joint Conference on Natural Language Processing (EMNLP-IJCNLP). 2019.

Due to constant shifts in population and changing demographics, school boundary processes take place to make adjustments to school attendance zones. This spatial problem has multiple criteria like locations of schools, their capacity utilization, proximity, presence of geographical/ man-made barriers, etc. In this paper, we formulate the problem of designing school boundaries as a spatially-constrained clustering/ regionalization problem and propose an automated approach called REGAL for solving it. REGAL is two-stage framework that starts by creating a candidate solution with regard to domain constraints such as school locations and spatial contiguity. Then a local search method improves the quality of the candidate solution by optimizing population balance and compactness of school zones while satisfying problem constraints. Experimentally, we demonstrate the efficacy of the REGAL framework on actual datasets from two school districts in the US.

Critical incident stages identification and reasonable prediction of traffic incident duration are essential in traffic incident management. In this paper, we propose a traffic incident duration prediction model that simultaneously predicts the impact of the traffic incidents and identifies the critical groups of temporal features via a multi-task learning framework. First, we formulate a sparsity optimization problem that extracts low-level temporal features based on traffic speed readings and then generalizes higher level features as phases of traffic incidents. Second, we propose novel constraints on feature similarity exploiting prior knowledge about the spatial connectivity of the road network to predict the incident duration. The proposed problem is challenging to solve due to the orthogonality constraints, non-convexity objective, and non-smoothness penalties. We develop an algorithm based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) framework to solve the proposed formulation. Extensive experiments and comparisons to other models on real-world traffic data and traffic incident records justify the efficacy of our model.

Modeling and forecasting forward citations to a patent is a central task for the discovery of emerging technologies and for measuring the pulse of inventive progress. Conventional methods for forecasting these forward citations cast the problem as analysis of temporal point processes which rely on the conditional intensity of previously received citations. Recent approaches model the conditional intensity as a chain of recurrent neural networks to capture memory dependency in hopes of reducing the restrictions of the parametric form of the intensity function. For the problem of patent citations, we observe that forecasting a patent's chain of citations benefits from not only the patent's history itself but also from the historical citations of assignees and inventors associated with that patent. In this paper, we propose a sequence-to-sequence model which employs an attention-of-attention mechanism to capture the dependencies of these multiple time sequences. Furthermore, the proposed model is able to forecast both the timestamp and the category of a patent's next citation. Extensive experiments on a large patent citation dataset collected from USPTO demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art models at forward citation forecasting.

Spatio-temporal societal event forecasting, which has traditionally been prohibitively challenging, is now becoming possible and experiencing rapid growth thanks to the big data from Open Source Indicators (OSI) such as social media, news sources, blogs, economic indicators, and other meta-data sources. Spatio-temporal societal event forecasting and their precursor discovery benefit the society by providing insight into events such as political crises, humanitarian crises, mass violence, riots, mass migrations, disease outbreaks, economic instability, resource shortages, natural disasters, and others. In contrast to traditional event detection that identifies ongoing events, event forecasting focuses on predicting future events yet to happen. Also different from traditional spatio-temporal predictions on numerical indices, spatio-temporal event forecasting needs to leverage the heterogeneous information from OSI to discover the predictive indicators and mappings to future societal events. While studying large scale societal events, policy makers and practitioners aim to identify precursors to such events to help understand causative attributes and ensure accountability. The resulting problems typically require the predictive modeling techniques that can jointly handle semantic, temporal, and spatial information, and require a design of efficient and interpretable algorithms that scale to high-dimensional large real-world datasets.

The presence of data noise and corruptions has recently invoked increasing attention on robust least-squares regression ( RLSR ), which addresses this fundamental problem that learns reliable regression coefficients when response variables can be arbitrarily corrupted. Until now, the following important challenges could not be handled concurrently: (1) rigorous recovery guarantee of regression coefficients, (2) difficulty in estimating the corruption ratio parameter, and (3) scaling to massive datasets. This article proposes a novel Robust regression algorithm via Heuristic Corruption Thresholding ( RHCT ) that concurrently addresses all the above challenges. Specifically, the algorithm alternately optimizes the regression coefficients and estimates the optimal uncorrupted set via heuristic thresholding without a pre-defined corruption ratio parameter until its convergence. Moreover, to improve the efficiency of corruption estimation in large-scale data, a Robust regression algorithm via Adaptive Corruption Thresholding ( RACT ) is proposed to determine the size of the uncorrupted set in a novel adaptive search method without iterating data samples exhaustively. In addition, we prove that our algorithms benefit from strong guarantees analogous to those of state-of-the-art methods in terms of convergence rates and recovery guarantees. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the effectiveness of our new methods is superior to that of existing methods in the recovery of both regression coefficients and uncorrupted sets, with very competitive efficiency.

With the rapid growth in urban transit networks in recent years, detecting service disruptions in a timely manner is a problem of increased interest to service providers. Transit agencies are seeking to move beyond traditional customer questionnaires and manual service inspections to leveraging open source indicators like social media for deteting emerging transit events. In this paper, we leverage Twitter data for early detection of metro service disruptions. Inspired by the multi-task learning framework, we propose the Metro Disruption Detection Model, which captures the semantic similarity between transit lines in Twitter space. We propose novel constraints on feature semantic similarity exploiting prior knowledge about the spatial connectivity and shared tracks of the metro network. An algorithm based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) framework is developed to solve the proposed model. We run extensive experiments and comparisons to other models with real world Twitter data and transit disruption records from the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) to justify the efficacy of our model.

Predicting individuals personality traits with their social media profile has proved to be feasible, but researchers recently have run into bottlenecks on further improving the prediction accuracy. One major limitation is that existing studies failed to consider context information in predicting social media users' behaviors. In this paper, we adopted the DIAMONDS situation theory in psychology to capture the context information in Facebook posts. To solve this issue, we proposed a novel situation-based feature interaction learning model. In this study, we extracted situation features according to the DIAMONDS lexicon and computed the interaction values between these situation features and the commonly used n-gram features at the post level. Features at the post level were aggregated up to the user level using the averaging strategy. A group lasso penalty was employed to enforce strong heredity in the model, which addressed the overfitting challenge introduced by the interaction features. Empirical tests on a large-scale data set have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method.

One can infer from the broken window theory that the perception of a city street's safety level relies significantly on the visual appearance of the street. Previous works have addressed the feasibility of using computer vision algorithms to classify urban scenes. Most of the existing urban perception predictions focus on binary outcomes such as safe or dangerous, wealthy or poor. However, binary predictions are not representative and cannot provide informative inferences such as the potential crime types in certain areas. In this paper, we explore the connection between urban perception and crime inferences. We propose a convolutional neural network (CNN) - StreetNet to learn crime rankings from street view images. The learning process is formulated on the basis of preference learning and label ranking settings. We design a street view images retrieval algorithm to improve the representation of urban perception. A data-driven, spatiotemporal algorithm is proposed to find unbiased label mappings between the street view images and the crime ranking records. Extensive evaluations conducted on images from different cities and comparisons with baselines demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

For node level graph encoding, a recent important state-of-art method is the graph convolutional networks (GCN), which nicely integrate local vertex features and graph topology in the spectral domain. However, current studies suffer from several drawbacks: (1) graph CNNs rely on Chebyshev polynomial approximation which results in oscillatory approximation at jump discontinuities; (2) Increasing the order of Chebyshev polynomial can reduce the oscillations issue, but also incurs unaffordable computational cost; (3) Chebyshev polynomials require degree Ω(poly(1/ε)) to approximate a jump signal such as |x|, while rational function only needs O(poly log(1/ε)). However, it is non-trivial to apply rational approximation without increasing computational complexity due to the denominator. In this paper, the superiority of rational approximation is exploited for graph signal recovering. RatioanlNet is proposed to integrate rational function and neural networks. We show that the rational function of eigenvalues can be rewritten as a function of graph Laplacian, which can avoid multiplication by the eigenvector matrix. Focusing on the analysis of approximation on graph convolution operation, a graph signal regression task is formulated. Under graph signal regression task, its time complexity can be significantly reduced by graph Fourier transform. To overcome the local minimum problem of neural networks model, a relaxed Remez algorithm is utilized to initialize the weight parameters. Convergence rate of RatioanlNet and polynomial based methods on a jump signal is analyzed for a theoretical guarantee. The extensive experimental results demonstrated that our approach could effectively characterize the jump discontinuities, outperforming competing methods by a substantial margin on both synthetic and real-world graphs.

The presence of data corruption in user-generated streaming data, such as social media, motivates a new fundamental problem that learns reliable regression coefficient when features are not accessible entirely at one time. Until now, several important challenges still cannot be handled concurrently: 1) corrupted data estimation when only partial features are accessible; 2) online feature selection when data contains adversarial corruption; and 3) scaling to a massive dataset. This paper proposes a novel RObust regression algorithm via Online Feature Selection (RoOFS) that concurrently addresses all the above challenges. Specifically, the algorithm iteratively updates the regression coefficients and the uncorrupted set via a robust online feature substitution method. Extensive empirical experiments in both synthetic and real-world data sets demonstrated that the effectiveness of our new method is superior to that of existing methods in the recovery of both feature selection and regression coefficients, with very competitive efficiency.

In this modern era, infectious diseases, such as H1N1, SARS, and Ebola, are spreading much faster than any time in history. Efficient approaches are therefore desired to monitor and track the diffusion of these deadly epidemics. Traditional computational epidemiology models are able to capture the disease spreading trends through contact network, however, one unable to provide timely updates via real-world data. In contrast, techniques focusing on emerging social media platforms can collect and monitor real-time disease data, but do not provide an understanding of the underlying dynamics of ailment propagation. To achieve efficient and accurate real-time disease prediction, the framework proposed in this paper combines the strength of social media mining and computational epidemiology. Specifically, individual health status is first learned from user's online posts through Bayesian inference, disease parameters are then extracted for the computational models at population-level, and the outputs of computational epidemiology model are inversely fed into social media data based models for further performance improvement. In various experiments, our proposed model outperforms current disease forecasting approaches with better accuracy and more stability.

Self-paced learning (SPL) mimics the cognitive process of humans, who generally learn from easy samples to hard ones. One key issue in SPL is the training process required for each instance weight depends on the other samples and thus cannot easily be run in a distributed manner in a large-scale dataset. In this paper, we reformulate the self-paced learning problem into a distributed setting and propose a novel Distributed Self-Paced Learning method (DSPL) to handle large scale datasets. Specifically, both the model and instance weights can be optimized in parallel for each batch based on a consensus alternating direction method of multipliers. We also prove the convergence of our algorithm under mild conditions. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that our approach is superior to those of existing methods.

The scarcity of potable water is a critical challenge in many regions around the world. Previous studies have shown that knowledge of device-level water usage can lead to significant conservation. Although there is considerable interest in determining discriminative features via sparse coding for water disaggregation to separate whole-house consumption into its component appliances, existing methods lack a mechanism for fitting coefficient distributions and are thus unable to accurately discriminate parallel devices’ consumption. This article proposes a Bayesian discriminative sparse coding model, referred to as Virtual Metering (VM), for this disaggregation task. Mixture-of-Gammas is employed for the prior distribution of coefficients, contributing two benefits: (i) guaranteeing the coefficients’ sparseness and non-negativity, and (ii) capturing the distribution of active coefficients. The resulting method effectively adapts the bases to aggregated consumption to facilitate discriminative learning in the proposed model, and devices’ shape features are formalized and incorporated into Bayesian sparse coding to direct the learning of basis functions. Compact Gibbs Sampling (CGS) is developed to accelerate the inference process by utilizing the sparse structure of coefficients. The empirical results obtained from applying the new model to large-scale real and synthetic datasets revealed that VM significantly outperformed the benchmark methods.

We propose a context-aware trust management model called CATrust for service-oriented ad hoc networks such as peer-to-peer and Internet of Things networks wherein a node can be a service requester or a service provider. The novelty of our design lies in the use of logistic regression to dynamically estimate trustworthiness of a service provider based on its service behavior patterns in response to context environment changes. We develop a recommendation filtering mechanism to effectively screen out dishonest recommendations even in extremely hostile environments in which the majority recommenders are dishonest. We demonstrate desirable convergence, accuracy, and resiliency properties of CATrust. We also demonstrate that CATrust outperforms contemporary peer-to-peer and Internet of Things trust models in terms of service trust prediction accuracy against collusion recommendation attacks.

In the era of information overload, people are struggling to make sense of complex story events in massive social media data. Most existing approaches are designed to address event extraction in news reports, documents and abstracts, but such approaches are not suitable for Twitter data streams due to their unstructured language, short-length messages, and heterogeneous features; few existing approach generates a story by considering both the shared topics throughout the story and the smooth connection between successive nodes simultaneously. In this paper, a novel Twitter stoRy generation framework via shAred subspaCe and tEmporal Smoothness called TRACES is proposed. Given a query of an ongoing event, a novel multi-task clustering method integrated with shared subspace and temporal smoothness (STMTC) is proposed to generate the event stories. Extensive experimental evaluations of data sets for different events demonstrate the effectiveness of this new approach.

In today's era of information overload, people are struggling to detect the evolution of hot topics from massive news media and microblogs such as Twitter. Reports from mainstream news agencies and discussions from microblogs could complement each other to form a complete picture of major events. Existing work has generally focused on a single source, seldom attempting to combine multiple sources to track the evolution of topics: emerging, evolving and fading phrases as this would require a considerably more sophisticated model. This paper proposes a novel story discovery model that integrates evolutionary topics in news and Twitter data sources using an incremental algorithm by 1) discovering complementary information from news and microblogs that provides a more complete view of major events; 2) modeling emerging, evolving and fading topics and features throughout ongoing events; and 3) creating a scalable algorithm that is capable of handling massive data from news and social media. The parameters of the new model are optimized using a novel algorithm based on the alternative direction method of multipliers (ADMM). Extensive experimental evaluations on multiple datasets from different domains demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our proposed approach.

Social media is often viewed as a sensor into various societal events such as disease outbreaks, protests, and elections. We describe the use of social media as a crowdsourced sensor to gain insight into ongoing cyber-attacks. Our approach detects a broad range of cyber-attacks (e.g., distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks, data breaches, and account hijacking) in a weakly supervised manner using just a small set of seed event triggers and requires no training or labeled samples. A new query expansion strategy based on convolution kernels and dependency parses helps model semantic structure and aids in identifying key event characteristics. Through a large-scale analysis over Twitter, we demonstrate that our approach consistently identifies and encodes events, outperforming existing methods.

Hyper-local pricing data, e.g., about foods and commodities, exhibit subtle spatiotemporal variations that can be useful as crucial precursors of future events. Three major challenges in modeling such pricing data include: i) temporal dependencies underlying features; ii) spatiotemporal missing values; and iii) constraints underlying economic phenomena. These challenges hinder traditional event forecasting models from being applied effectively. This paper proposes a novel spatiotemporal event forecasting model that concurrently addresses the above challenges. Specifically, given continuous price data, a new soft time-lagged model is designed to select temporally dependent features. To handle missing values, we propose a data tensor completion method based on price domain knowledge. The parameters of the new model are optimized using a novel algorithm based on the Alternative Direction Methods of Multipliers (ADMM). Extensive experimental evaluations on multiple datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

FusionGAN is a novel genre fusion framework for music generation that integrates the strengths of generative adversarial networks and dual learning. In particular, the proposed method offers a dual learning extension that can effectively integrate the styles of the given domains. To efficiently quantify the difference among diverse domains and avoid the vanishing gradient issue, FusionGAN provides a Wasserstein based metric to approximate the distance between the target domain and the existing domains. Adopting the Wasserstein distance, a new domain is created by combining the patterns of the existing domains using adversarial learning. Experimental results on public music datasets demonstrated that our approach could effectively merge two genres.

In today's era of big data, robust least-squares regression becomes a more challenging problem when considering the adversarial corruption along with explosive growth of datasets. Traditional robust methods can handle the noise but suffer from several challenges when applied in huge dataset including 1) computational infeasibility of handling an entire dataset at once, 2) existence of heterogeneously distributed corruption, and 3) difficulty in corruption estimation when data cannot be entirely loaded. This paper proposes online and distributed robust regression approaches, both of which can concurrently address all the above challenges. Specifically, the distributed algorithm optimizes the regression coefficients of each data block via heuristic hard thresholding and combines all the estimates in a distributed robust consolidation. Furthermore, an online version of the distributed algorithm is proposed to incrementally update the existing estimates with new incoming data. We also prove that our algorithms benefit from strong robustness guarantees in terms of regression coefficient recovery with a constant upper bound on the error of state-of-the-art batch methods. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that our approaches are superior to those of existing methods in effectiveness, with competitive efficiency.

Deriving event storylines is an effective summarization method to succinctly organize extensive information, which can significantly alleviate the pain of information overload. The critical challenge is the lack of widely recognized definition of storyline metric. Prior studies have developed various approaches based on different assumptions about users' interests. These works can extract interesting patterns, but their assumptions do not guarantee that the derived patterns will match users' preference. On the other hand, their exclusiveness of single modality source misses cross-modality information. This paper proposes a method, multimodal imitation learning via Generative Adversarial Networks(MIL-GAN), to directly model users' interests as reflected by various data. In particular, the proposed model addresses the critical challenge by imitating users' demonstrated storylines. Our proposed model is designed to learn the reward patterns given user-provided storylines and then applies the learned policy to unseen data. The proposed approach is demonstrated to be capable of acquiring the user's implicit intent and outperforming competing methods by a substantial margin with a user study.

The presence of data noise and corruptions recently invokes increasing attention on Robust Least Squares Regression (RLSR), which addresses the fundamental problem that learns reliable regression coefficients when response variables can be arbitrarily corrupted. Until now, several important challenges still cannot be handled concurrently: 1) exact recovery guarantee of regression coefficients 2) difficulty in estimating the corruption ratio parameter; and 3) scalability to massive dataset. This paper proposes a novel Robust Least squares regression algorithm via Heuristic Hard thresholding (RLHH), that concurrently addresses all the above challenges. Specifically, the algorithm alternately optimizes the regression coefficients and estimates the optimal uncorrupted set via heuristic hard thresholding without corruption ratio parameter until it converges. We also prove that our algorithm benefits from strong guarantees analogous to those of state-of-the-art methods in terms of convergence rates and recovery guarantees. We provide empirical evidence to demonstrate that the effectiveness of our new method is superior to that of existing methods in the recovery of both regression coefficients and uncorrupted sets, with very competitive efficiency.

Event detection in online social media has primarily focused on identifying abnormal spikes, or bursts, in activity. However, disruptive events such as socio-economic disasters, civil unrest, and even power outages, often involve abnormal troughs or lack of activity, leading to absenteeism. We present the first study, to our knowledge, that models absenteeism and uses detected absenteeism instances as a basis for event detection in location-based social networks such as Twitter. The proposed framework addresses the challenges of (i) early detection of absenteeism, (ii) identifying the locus of the absenteeism, and (iii) identifying groups or communities underlying the absenteeism. Our approach uses the formalism of graph wavelets to represent the spatiotemporal structure of user activity in a location-based social network. This formalism facilitates multiscale analysis, enabling us to detect anomalous behavior at different graph resolutions, which in turn allows the identification of event locations and underlying groups. The effectiveness of our approach is evaluated using Twitter activity related to civil unrest events in Latin America.

Social media has been utilized as a significant surrogate for spatial societal event forecasting. The accuracy and discernibility of a spatial event forecasting model are two key concerns, as they determine how accurate and how detailed the model's predictions will be. Existing research focuses almost exclusively on the accuracy alone, seldom considering the accuracy and discernibility simultaneously because this would require a considerably more sophisticated model while suffering from several challenges, namely: 1) the precise formulation of the tradeoff between accuracy and discernibility; 2) the scarcity of social media data with a high spatial resolution; and 3) the characterization of spatial correlation and heterogeneity. This paper proposes a novel feature learning framework that concurrently addresses all the above challenges by formulating prediction tasks for different locations with different spatial resolutions, allowing the heterogeneous relationships among the tasks to be characterized. This characterization is then integrated into our new models based on multitask learning, with parameters optimized by our proposed algorithm based on the alternative direction method of multipliers (ADMM) and dynamic programming. Extensive experimental evaluations performed on several data sets from different domains demonstrated the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

With the ever increasing volume of geo-referenced datasets, there is a real need for better statistical estimation and prediction techniques for spatial analysis. Most existing approaches focus on predicting multivariate Gaussian spatial processes, but as the data may consist of non-Gaussian (or mixed type) variables, this creates two challenges: (1) how to accurately capture the dependencies among different data types, both Gaussian and non-Gaussian; and (2) how to efficiently predict multivariate non-Gaussian spatial processes. In this article, we propose a generic approach for predicting multiple response variables of mixed types. The proposed approach accurately captures cross-spatial dependencies among response variables and reduces the computational burden by projecting the spatial process to a lower dimensional space with knot-based techniques. Efficient approximations are provided to estimate posterior marginals of latent variables for the predictive process, and extensive experimental evaluations based on both simulation and real-life datasets are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of this new approach.

Spatial event forecasting from social media is potentially extremely useful but suffers from critical challenges, such as the dynamic patterns of features (keywords) and geographic heterogeneity (e.g., spatial correlations, imbalanced samples, and different populations in different locations). Most existing approaches (e.g., LASSO regression, dynamic query expansion, and burst detection) address some, but not all, of these challenges. Here, we propose a novel multi-task learning framework that aims to concurrently address all the challenges involved. Specifically, given a collection of locations (e.g., cities), forecasting models are built for all the locations simultaneously by extracting and utilizing appropriate shared information that effectively increases the sample size for each location, thus improving the forecasting performance. The new model combines both static features derived from a predefined vocabulary by domain experts and dynamic features generated from dynamic query expansion in a multi-task feature learning framework. Different strategies to balance homogeneity and diversity between static and dynamic terms are also investigated. And, efficient algorithms based on Iterative Group Hard Thresholding are developed to achieve efficient and effective model training and prediction. Extensive experimental evaluations on Twitter data from civil unrest and influenza outbreak datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our proposed approach.

The analysis of interactions between social media and traditional news streams is becoming increasingly relevant for a variety of applications, including: understanding the underlying factors that drive the evolution of data sources, tracking the triggers behind events, and discovering emerging trends.Researchers have explored such interactions by examining volume changes or information diffusions,however, most of them ignore the semantical and topical relationships between news and social media data.Our work is the first attempt to study how news influences social media, or inversely, based on topical knowledge.We propose a hierarchical Bayesian model that jointly models the news and social media topics and their interactions.We show that our proposed model can capture distinct topics for individual datasets as well as discover the topic influences among multiple datasets.By applying our model to large sets of news and tweets, we demonstrate its significant improvement over baseline methods and explore its power in the discovery of interesting patterns for real world cases.

Connecting the dots between diverse entities such as people and organizations is a vital task for forming hypotheses and uncovering latent relationships among complex and large datasets. Most existing approaches are designed to address the relationship of entities in news reports, documents and abstracts, but such approaches are not suitable for Twitter data streams due to their unstructured languages, short-length messages, heterogeneous features and massive size. The sheer size of Twitter data requires more efficient algorithms to connect the dots within a short period of time. We present a system that automatically constructs stories by connecting entities in Twitter datasets. An entity similarity model is designed that combines both traditional entity-related features and social network attributes and a novel story generation algorithm applied on the similarity model is proposed to cope with the massive Twitter datasets. Extensive experimental evaluations were conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of this new approach.

Storyline detection aims to connect seemly irrelevant single documents into meaningful chains, which provides opportunities for understanding how events evolve over time and what triggers such evolutions. Most previous work generated the storylines through unsupervised methods that can hardly reveal underlying factors driving the evolution process. This paper introduces a Bayesian model to generate storylines from massive documents and infer the corresponding hidden relations and topics. In addition, our model is the first attempt that utilizes Twitter data as human input to ``supervise'' the generation of storylines. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate our proposed model can achieve significant improvement over baseline methods and can be used to discover interesting patterns for real world cases.

Social media has become a significant surrogate forspatial event forecasting. The accuracy and discernibility of aspatial event forecasting model are two key concerns, whichrespectively determine how accurate and how detailed themodel's predictions could be. Existing work pays most attentionon the accuracy alone, seldom considering the accuracyand discernibility simultaneously, because this would requiresa considerably more sophisticated model while still sufferingfrom several challenges: 1) the precise formulation of thetrade-off between accuracy and discernibility, 2) the scarcityof social media data with a high spatial resolution, and 3)the characterization of spatial correlation and heterogeneity. This paper proposes a novel feature learning model thatconcurrently addresses all the above challenges by formulatingprediction tasks for different locations with different spatialresolutions, allowing the heterogeneous relationships amongthe tasks to be characterized. This characterization is thenintegrated into our new model based on multitask learning, whose parameters are optimized by our proposed algorithmbased on the Alternative Direction Method of Multipliers(ADMM). Extensive experimental evaluations on 11 datasetsfrom different domains demonstrated the effectiveness of ourproposed approach.

Social media captures voice of customers at a rapid pace. Consumer perception of a brand is crucial to its success. Current techniques for measuring brand perception using lengthy surveys of handpicked users in person, by mail, phone or online are time consuming and increasingly inadequate. A more effective technique to measure brand perception is to interpret customer voice directly from social media and other open data. In this work we present DERIV, a DistributEd, in-memoRy framework for trackIng consumer Voice based on a brand perception measure using storylines generated from open data. The framework measures perception of a brand in comparison to peer brands with in-memory distributed algorithms utilizing supervised machine learning techniques. Experiments performed with open data and models built with storylines of known peer brands show the technique as highly accurate and effective in capturing brand perception.

EMBERS is an anticipatory intelligence system forecasting population-level events in multiple countries of Latin America. A deployed system from 2012, EMBERS has been generating alerts 24x7 by ingesting a broad range of data sources including news, blogs, tweets, machine coded events,currency rates, and food prices. In this paper, we describe our experiences operating EMBERS continuously for nearly 4 years, with specific attention to the discoveries it has enabled, correct as well as missed forecasts, lessons learnt from participating in a forecasting tournament, and our perspectives on the limits of forecasting including ethical considerations.

Forecasting significant societal events is an interesting and challenging problem as it taking into consideration multiple aspects of a society, including its economics, politics, and culture. Traditional forecasting methods based on a single data source find it hard to cover all these aspects comprehensively, thus limiting model performance. Multi source event forecasting has proven promising but still suffers from several challenges, including 1) geographical hierarchies in multi-source data features, 2) missing values, and 3) characterization of structured feature sparsity. This paper proposes a novel feature learning model that concurrently addresses all the above challenges. Specifically, given multi-source data from different geographical levels, we design a new forecasting model by characterizing the lower-level features' dependence on higher-level features. To handle the correlations amidst structured feature sets and deal with missing values among the coupled features, we propose a novel feature learning model based on an $N$th-order strong hierarchy and fused-overlapping group Lasso. An efficient algorithm is developed to optimize model parameters and ensure global optima. Extensive experiments on 10 datasets in different domains demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed model.

This paper presents an unsupervised method for systematically identifying anomalies in music datasets. The model integrates categorical regression and robust estimation techniques to infer anomalous scores in music clips. When applied to a music genre recognition dataset, the new method is able to detect corrupted, distorted, or mislabeled audio samples based on commonly used features in music information retrieval. The evaluation results show that the algorithm outperforms other anomaly detection methods and is capable of finding problematic samples identified by human experts. The proposed method introduces a preliminary framework for anomaly detection in music data that can serve as a useful tool to improve data integrity in the future.

Anomaly detection in mixed-type data is an important problem that has not been well addressed in the machine learning field. Existing approaches focus on computational efficiency and their correlation modeling between mixed-type attributes is heuristically driven, lacking a statistical foundation. In this paper, we propose MIxed-Type Robust dEtection (MITRE), a robust error buffering approach for anomaly detection in mixed-type datasets. Because of its non-Gaussian design, the problem is analytically intractable. Two novel Bayesian inference approaches are utilized to solve the intractable inferences: Integrated-nested Laplace Approximation (INLA), and Expectation Propagation (EP) with Variational Expectation-Maximization (EM). A set of algorithmic optimizations is implemented to improve the computational efficiency. A comprehensive suite of experiments was conducted on both synthetic and real world data to test the effectiveness and efficiency of MITRE.

Twitter has become a popular social sensor. It is socially significant to surveil the tweet content under crucial themes such as "disease" and "civil unrest". However, this creates two challenges: 1) how to characterize the theme pattern, given Twitter's heterogeneity, dynamics, and unstructured language; and 2) how to model the theme consistently across multiple Twitter functions such as hashtags, replying, and friendships. In this paper, we propose a dynamic query expansion (DQE) model for theme tracking in Twitter. Specifically, DQE characterizes the theme consistency among heterogeneous entities (e.g., terms, tweets, and users) through semantic and social relationships, including co-occurrence, replying, authorship, and friendship. The proposed new optimization algorithm estimates the weight of each relationship by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence. To demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of DQE, we conducted extensive experiments to track the theme "civil unrest" across 8 Latin American countries.

Traditional statistical analysis on speed, volume, and occupancy has dominated the field of Arterial Incident Management Study (AIMS). However, few previous works have focused on investigating into the causality of the incidents. In this paper, we present ButterFly, a social media based arterial incident detection and analysis system. The proposed system is dedicated to identify the traffic incident from a novel perspective and discover causalities between traffic incidents. The main functionalities of the proposed system include: 1) Traffic incident detection based on userinput social media contents, 2) Transportation incidents storyline generation, and 3) Traffic incidents causalities analysis and visualization. We demonstrate the system by considering the Washington DC area as our experimental environment. ButterFly is targeted to provide effective and convenient real-time and historical traffic incidents analysis interfaces for transportation management agencies and academies. Our proposed system, integrated with multiple social media resources, can greatly broaden the visions for traffic incidents analysis.

Infectious disease epidemics such as influenza and Ebola pose a serious threat to global public health. It is crucial to characterize the disease and the evolution of the ongoing epidemic efficiently and accurately. Computational epidemiology can model the disease progress and underlying contact network, but suffers from the lack of real-time and fine-grained surveillance data. Social media, on the other hand, provides timely and detailed disease surveillance, but is insensible to the underlying contact network and disease model. This paper proposes a novel semi-supervised deep learning framework that integrates the strengths of computational epidemiology and social media mining techniques. Specifically, this framework learns the social media users' health states and intervention actions in real time, which are regularized by the underlying disease model and contact network. Conversely, the learned knowledge from social media can be fed into computational epidemic model to improve the efficiency and accuracy of disease diffusion modeling. We propose an online optimization algorithm to substantialize the above interactive learning process iteratively to achieve a consistent stage of the integration. The extensive experimental results demonstrated that our approach can effectively characterize the spatio-temporal disease diffusion, outperforming competing methods by a substantial margin on multiple metrics.

Spatial event forecasting from social media is an important problem but encounters critical challenges, such as dynamic patterns of features (keywords) and geographic heterogeneity (e.g., spatial correlations, imbalanced samples, and different populations in different locations). Most existing approaches (e.g., LASSO regression, dynamic query expansion, and burst detection) are designed to address some of these challenges, but not all of them. This paper proposes a novel multi-task learning framework which aims to concurrently address all the challenges. Specifically, given a collection of locations (e.g., cities), we propose to build forecasting models for all locations simultaneously by extracting and utilizing appropriate shared information that effectively increases the sample size for each location, thus improving the forecasting performance. We combine both static features derived from a predefined vocabulary by domain experts and dynamic features generated from dynamic query expansion in a multi-task feature learning framework; we investigate different strategies to balance homogeneity and diversity between static and dynamic terms. Efficient algorithms based on Iterative Group Hard Thresholding are developed to achieve efficient and effective model training and prediction. Extensive experimental evaluations on Twitter data from four different countries in Latin America demonstrated the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

Event forecasting in Twitter is an important and challenging problem. Most existing approaches focus on forecasting temporal events (such as elections and sports) and do not consider spatial features and their underlying correlations. In this paper, we propose a generative model for spatiotemporal event forecasting in Twitter. Our model characterizes the underlying development of future events by jointly modeling the structural contexts and spatiotemporal burstiness. An effective inference algorithm is developed to train the model parameters. Utilizing the trained model, the alignment likelihood of tweet sequences is calculated by dynamic programming. Extensive experimental evaluations on two different domains demonstrated the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

Developed under the IARPA Open Source Initiative program, EMBERS (Early Model Based Event Recognition using Surrogates) is a large-scale Big-Data analytics system for forecasting significant societal events, such as civil unrest incidents and disease outbreaks on the basis of continuous, automated analysis of large volumes of publicly available data. It has been operational since November of 2012, delivering approximately 50 predictions each day. EMBERS is built on a streaming, scalable, share-nothing architecture and is deployed on Amazon Web Services (AWS).

This paper presents TREADS, a novel travel route recommendation system that suggests safe travel itineraries in real time by incorporating social media data resources and points of interest review summarization techniques. The system consists of an efficient route recommendation service that considers safety and user interest factors, a transportation related tweets retriever with high accuracy, and a novel text summarization module that provides summaries of location based Twitter data and Yelp reviews to enhance our route recommendation service. We demonstrate the system by utilizing crime and points of interest data in the Washington DC area. TREADS is targeted to provide safe, effective, and convenient travel strategies for commuters and tourists. Our proposed system, integrated with multiple social media resources, can greatly improve the travel experience for tourists in unfamiliar cities.

As a form of social media, Twitter records real life events in our cities as they happen. Huge numbers of tweets under the heading of transportation or metro are published every day. This paper presents an application for Traffic Events Detection and Summary (TEDS) based on mining representative terms from the tweets posted when anomalies occur. The proposed ensemble application contains an efficient TEDS search engine with multiple indexing, ranking, and scoring schemes. Spatio-temporal analysis and a novel wavelet analysis model are applied for traffic event detection. This application could benefit both drivers and transportation authorities. Users can search transportation status and analyze traffic events in specific locations of interest. Utilizing the proposed signal processing technology, we demonstrate the system's effectiveness by examining traffic and metro travel in the Washington D.C. area. As the collaboration between a citizen's life and social media becomes ever greater, this could have a significant impact on the prediction of traffic flow, travel selection, and other city computing functions.

We describe the design, implementation, and evaluation of EMBERS, an automated, 24x7 continuous system for forecasting civil unrest across 10 countries of Latin America using open source indicators such as tweets, news sources, blogs, economic indicators, and other data sources. Unlike retrospective studies, EMBERS has been making forecasts into the future since Nov 2012 which have been (and continue to be) evaluated by an independent T&E team (MITRE). Of note, EMBERS has successfully forecast the June 2013 protests in Brazil and Feb 2014 violent protests in Venezuela. We outline the system architecture of EMBERS, individual models that leverage specific data sources, and a fusion and suppression engine that supports trading off specific evaluation criteria. EMBERS also provides an audit trail interface that enables the investigation of why specific predictions were made along with the data utilized for forecasting. Through numerous evaluations, we demonstrate the superiority of EMBERS over baserate methods and its capability to forecast significant societal happenings.

The Probability Density Function (PDF) is the fundamental data model for a variety of stream mining algorithms. Existing works apply the standard nonparametric Kernel Density Estimator (KDE) to approximate the PDF of data streams. As a result, the stream-based KDEs cannot accurately capture complex local density features. In this article, we propose the use of Local Region (LRs) to model local density information in univariate data streams. In-depth theoretical analyses are presented to justify the effectiveness of the LR-based KDE. Based on the analyses, we develop the General Local rEgion AlgorithM (GLEAM) to enhance the estimation quality of structurally complex univariate distributions for existing stream-based KDEs. A set of algorithmic optimizations is designed to improve the query throughput of GLEAM and to achieve its linear order computation. Additionally, a comprehensive suite of experiments was conducted to test the effectiveness and efficiency of GLEAM.

Passive monitoring by distributed wireless sniffers has been used to strategically capture the network traffic, as the basis of automatic network diagnosis. However, the traditional monitoring techniques fall short in cognitive radio networks (CRNs) due to the much larger number of channels to be monitored and the secondary users' channel availability uncertainty imposed by primary user activities. To better serve CRNs, we propose a systematic passive monitoring framework, i.e., SpecMonitor, for traffic collection using a limited number of sniffers in Wi-Fi-like CRNs. We jointly consider primary user activity and secondary user channel access pattern to optimize the traffic capturing strategy. In particular, we exploit a nonparametric density estimation method to learn and predict secondary users' access pattern in an online fashion, which rapidly adapts to the users' dynamic behaviors and supports accurate estimation of merged access patterns from multiple users. We also design near-optimal monitoring algorithms that maximize two levels of quality-of-monitoring goals based on the predicted channel access patterns. The simulations and experiments show that SpecMonitor outperforms the existing schemes significantly.

Anomaly detection for mixed-type data is an important problem that has not been well addressed in the machine learning field. There are two challenging issues for mixed-type datasets, namely modeling mutual correlations between mixed-type attributes and capturing large variations due to anomalies. This paper presents BuffDetect, a robust error buffering approach for anomaly detection in mixed-type datasets. A new variant of the generalized linear model is proposed to model the dependency between mixed-type attributes. The model incorporates an error buffering component based on Student-t distribution to absorb the variations caused by anomalies. However, because of the non- Gaussian design, the problem becomes analytically intractable. We propose a novel Bayesian inference approach, which integrates Laplace approximation and several computational optimizations, and is able to efficiently approximate the posterior of high dimensional latent variables by iteratively updating the latent variables in groups. Extensive experimental evaluations based on 13 benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of BuffDetect.

Geo-social information can be utilized for user benefits in many applications. Social interaction in vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs) is an important source for this type of information. In this paper, we first propose and describe a general architecture of the social VANET system (S-VANET) that supports social interaction through vehicular networks. Then, we present a new carpooling recommendation system that works as S-VANET application. The main objective is to recommend individuals to join their friends during trips or travels. The proposed recommendation system uses check-in history and home location to model users, and utilizes Fast Fourier transform to represent user check-ins and find the similarity between users. The system uses hierarchical clustering with weighted center of mass method to estimate the user home location.

As the world braces for the impact of the sequestration, international conflicts, and other decisions facing the US congress, people are wondering how their congressmen's decisions will affect their lives. Traditionally, to understand what issues a congressman found import, interested constituents would synthesize voting records, bills, and other disparate data sets to understand their congressman's habits. Fortunately, technology can now be used to integrate and display this information in an informative and visually appealing way. In response to this need to understand the behavior of congressmen, we have developed a mobile-based search and data mining application that provides users with the ability to analyze a large amount of social media data from Twitter, as well as data from the United States Congressional voting records. The application is focused on identifying patterns, anomalies, and associations between members of congress and external users to determine influential users within and outside Congress. This paper introduces the motivation behind the application -- Kongress - and then progresses into the system architecture. The applications features include the ability to search congressional tweets, votes, and bills, and a geospatial visualization of congressional tweets. We also demonstrate how a user could use Kongress to understand the motivation behind a congressman' decisions.

Passive monitoring by distributed wireless sniffers has been used to strategically capture the network traffic, as the basis of automatic network diagnosis. However, the traditional monitoring techniques fall short in cognitive radio networks (CRNs) due to the much larger number of channels to be monitored, and the secondary users' channel availability uncertainty imposed by primary user activities. To better serve CRNs, we propose a systematic passive monitoring framework for traffic collection using a limited number of sniffers in WiFi like CRNs. We jointly consider primary user activity and secondary user channel access pattern to optimize the traffic capturing strategy. In particular, we exploit a non-parametric density estimation method to learn and predict secondary users' access pattern in an online fashion, which rapidly adapts to the users' dynamic behaviors and supports accurate estimation of merged access patterns from multiple users. We also design near-optimal monitoring algorithms that maximize two levels of quality-of-monitoring goals respectively, based on the predicted channel access patterns. The simulations and experiments show that our proposed framework outperforms the existing schemes significantly.

Social microblogs such as Twitter and Weibo are experiencing an explosive growth with billions of global users sharing their daily observations and thoughts. Beyond public interests (e.g., sports, music), microblogs can provide highly detailed information for those interested in public health, homeland security, and financial analysis. However, the language used in Twitter is heavily informal, ungrammatical, and dynamic. Existing data mining algorithms require extensive manually labeling to build and maintain a supervised system. This paper presents STED, a semi-supervised system that helps users to automatically detect and interactively visualize events of a targeted type from twitter, such as crimes, civil unrests, and disease outbreaks. Our model first applies transfer learning and label propagation to automatically generate labeled data, then learns a customized text classifier based on mini-clustering, and finally applies fast spatial scan statistics to estimate the locations of events. We demonstrate STED's usage and benefits using twitter data collected from Latin America countries, and show how our system helps to detect and track example events such as civil unrests and crimes.

Energy crisis and climate change have caused a global concern and motivated efforts to reduce energy consumption. Studies have shown that providing appliance-level consumption information can help users conserve a significant amount of energy. Existing methods focus on learning parallel signal signatures, but the inherent relationships between the signatures have not been well explored. This paper presents the Hierarchical Probabilistic Model for Energy Disaggregation (HPMED). We derive the discriminative features from low sample rate power readings to characterise device functional modes. The HPMED model bridges the discriminative features, working states, and aggregated consumption. To address the analytical intractable problem, an efficient algorithm is proposed to approximately infer the latent states for disaggregation task. Extensive experiments on a real-world dataset demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

This paper presents an integrated framework for Spatio-Temporal-Textual (STT) information retrieval and knowledge discovery system. The proposed ensemble framework contains an efficient STT search engine with multiple indexing, ranking and scoring schemes, an effective STT pattern miner with Spatio-Temporal (ST) analytics, and novel STT topic modeling. Specifically, we design an effective prediction prototype with a third-order linear regression model, and present an innovative STT topic modeling relevance ranker to score documents based on inherent STT features under topical space. We demonstrate the framework with a crime dataset from the Washington, DC area from 2006 to 2010 and a global terrorism dataset from 2004 to 2010.

Spatial kriging is a widely used predictive model for spatial datasets. In spatial kriging model, the observations are assumed to be Gaussian for computational convenience. However, its predictive accuracy could be significantly compromised if the observations are contaminated by outliers. This deficiency can be systematically addressed by increasing the robustness of spatial kriging model using heavy tailed distributions, such as the Huber, Laplace, and Student's t distributions. This paper presents a novel Robust and Reduced Rank Spatial Kriging Model (R3-SKM), which is resilient to the influences of outliers and allows for fast spatial inference. Furthermore, three effective and efficient algorithms are proposed based on R3-SKM framework that can perform robust parameter estimation, spatial prediction, and spatial outlier detection with a linear-order time complexity. Extensive experiments on both simulated and real data sets demonstrated the robustness and efficiency of our proposed techniques.

As the issue of freshwater shortage is increasing daily, it's critical to take effective measures for water conservation. Based on previous studies, device level consumption could lead to significant conservation of freshwater. However, current smart meter deployments only produce low sample rate aggregated data. In this paper, we examine the task of separating whole-home water consumption into its component appliances. A key challenge is to address the unique features of low sample rate data. To this end, we propose Sparse Coding with Featured Discriminative Dictionary (SCFDD) by incorporating inherent shape and activation features to capture the discriminative characteristics of devices. In addition, extensive experiments were performed to validate the effectiveness of SCFDD.

Spatial Categorical Outlier Detection (SCOD) has attracted considerable attentions from the areas of spatial data mining and geological analysis. When encountering an SCOD problem, some researchers introduce to utilize Spatial Numerical Outlier Detection measures by mapping categorical attributes to continuous ones. However, such approaches fail to capture the special properties of spatial categorical data, which is prone to incur the masking and swamping issues. In this paper, we model spatial dependencies between spatial categorical observations and propose a Pair Correlation Function(PCF) based method to detect SCOs. First, a new metric, named Pair Correlation Ratio(PCR), is estimated for each pair of categorical combinations based on their co-occurrence frequency at different spatial distances. Then discrete PCRs are fitted in a continuous function of distances. The outlier score is computed using the average PCRs between referenced object and its spatial neighbors. Observations with the lowest PCRs are labeled as potential SCOs. Extensive experiments demonstrated that PCF based method outperformed existing approaches.

Crowd sourcing is based on a simple but powerful concept: Virtually anyone has the potential to plug in valuable information. The concept revolves around large groups of people or community handling tasks that have traditionally been associated with a specialist or small group of experts. With the advent of the smart devices, many mobile applications are already tapping into crowd sourcing to report community issues and traffic problems, but more can be done. While most of these applications work well for the average user, it neglects the information needs of particular user communities. We present CROWDSAFE, a novel convergence of Internet crowd sourcing and portable smart devices to enable real time, location based crime incident searching and reporting. It is targeted to users who are interested in crime information. The system leverages crowd sourced data to provide novel features such as a Safety Router and value added crime analytics. We demonstrate the system by using crime data in the metropolitan Washington DC area to show the effectiveness of our approach. Also highlighted is its ability to facilitate greater collaboration between citizens and civic authorities. Such collaboration shall foster greater innovation to turn crime data analysis into smarter and safe decisions for the public.

Activity analysis disaggregates utility consumption from smart meters into specific usage that associates with human activities. It can not only help residents better manage their consumption for sustainable lifestyle, but also allow utility managers to devise conservation programs. Existing research efforts on disaggregating consumption focus on analyzing consumption features with high sample rates (mainly between 1 Hz ~ 1MHz). However, many smart meter deployments support sample rates at most 1/900 Hz, which challenges activity analysis with occurrences of parallel activities, difficulty of aligning events, and lack of consumption features. We propose a novel statistical framework for disaggregation on coarse granular smart meter readings by modeling fixture characteristics, household behavior, and activity correlations. This framework has been implemented into two approaches for different application scenarios, and has been deployed to serve over 300 pilot households in Dubuque, IA. Interesting activity-level consumption patterns have been identified, and the evaluation on both real and synthetic datasets has shown high accuracy on discovering washer and shower.

Increasing usage of location-aware devices, such as GPS and RFID, has made moving object management an important task. Existing spatial-temporal indexing techniques support efficient queries on large number of moving objects. In these techniques, significant I/O is consumed by removing obsolete locations, which impairs the performance of moving object management. On the other hand, some techniques have been designed to index moving objects in main memory to facilitate frequent location updates. However, they are limited by the size of available memory. In this paper, we propose a generic spatial-temporal index framework, Disposable Index for Moving objects (DIME), to efficiently handle location management over mobile agents with hybrid storage support. The proposed disposable index framework eliminates delete operations on the spatial indexing structure and processes insert operations in memory only. Most existing spatial indexing structures can be adopted in this generic framework. Both snapshot and continuous query processing has been designed for this framework. Experimental results on benchmark data sets demonstrated the scalability and efficiency of DIME.

Geographic feature expansion is a common task in Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Identifying and integrating geographic features is a challenging task since many of their spatial and non-spatial properties are described in different sources. We tackle this expansion problem by defining semantic footprints as a measure of similarity among features. Furthermore, we propose three quantifiers of semantic similarity: spatial, dimensional, and ontological affinity. We show how these measures dilute, concentrate, harden, or concede the feature space, and provide useful insights into the semantic relationships of the spatial entities. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in semantically associating the most appropriate spatial features.

This paper proposes a STT(spatio-temporal-textual) search engine for extracting, indexing, querying and visualizing crime information. Until recently, it's a labor-intensive work to identify crime entities, cluster similar suspect activities, and discover patterns from massive online collections. It's a big challenge to reveal inherent ST(spatio-temporal) correlations among mass crime information. It's getting more difficult considering the subjectivity and vagueness of information retrieval from narratives of victims or witness and online documents of social networks. We have developed a crime search engine for Washington DC metropolitan area that includes geo-temporal-tagger, STT indexer, heuristic query and ranker and dynamical ST visualization. It assists crime detection for investigators, identification of crime trends and patterns for decision makers and researchers, and security of city life for residents and journalists.

A spatial outlier is a spatially referenced object whose non-spatial attributes are very different from those of its spatial neighbors. Spatial outlier detection has been an important part of spatial data mining and attracted attention in the past decades. Numerous SOD (Spatial Outlier Detection) approaches have been proposed. However, in these techniques, there exist the problems of masking and swamping. That is, some spatial outliers can escape the identification, and normal objects can be erroneously identified as outliers. In this paper, two Random walk based approaches, RW-BP (Random Walk on Bipartite Graph) and RW-EC (Random Walk on Exhaustive Combination), are proposed to detect spatial outliers. First, two different weighed graphs, a BP (Bipartite graph) and an EC (Exhaustive Combination), are modeled based on the spatial and/or non-spatial attributes of the spatial objects. Then, random walk techniques are utilized on the graphs to compute the relevance scores between the spatial objects. Using the analysis results, the outlier scores are computed for each object and the top k objects are recognized as outliers. Experiments conducted on the synthetic and real datasets demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

Moving object management approaches, especially continuous query processing techniques, have attracted significant research effort due to the broad usage of location-aware devices. However, little attention has been given to designing concurrency control protocols for continuous query processing. Existing concurrency control protocols for spatial indices are based on a single indexing tree, while popular continuous query processing approaches require multiple indices. In addition, continuous monitoring combined with frequent location updates challenges the development of serializable isolation for concurrent index operations. This paper proposes an efficient concurrent continuous query processing approach C3, which fuses scalable continuous query processing methods with lazy update techniques on R-trees. The proposed concurrency control protocol, equipped with intra- and inter-index protection, assures serializable isolation, consistency, and deadlock-freedom. The correctness of the proposed protocol is theoretically proven, and the experiment results demonstrated its scalability and efficiency.

Appearances of objects lie in high-dimensional spaces. For a given recognition task, feature selection aims to select most effective features in order to reduce the recognition cost and improve recognition accuracy. Feature selection can be achieved by a bottom-up scheme, e.g., using spatial information, or a top-down scheme, e.g., using class information. In this paper, we propose a model to integrate spatial and discriminant influence for appearance based recognition, where locality oriented Fisher score is introduced to estimate the discriminant influence. We use Lipschitz regularity to construct image representation. We present a case study of embryo stage recognition to test the performance of the proposed method. We also obtain new insights on the comparison between spatial and discriminant influence.

Local based approach is a major category of methods for spatial outlier detection (SOD). Currently, there is a lack of systematic analysis on the statistical properties of this framework. For example, most methods assume identical and independent normal distributions (i.i.d. normal) for the calculated local differences, but no justifications for this critical assumption have been presented. The methods' detection performance on geostatistic data with linear or nonlinear trend is also not well studied. In addition, there is a lack of theoretical connections and empirical comparisons between local and global based SOD approaches. This paper discusses all these fundamental issues under the proposed Generalized Local Statistical (GLS) framework. Furthermore, robust estimation and outlier detection methods are designed for the new GLS model. Extensive simulations demonstrated that the SOD method based on the GLS model significantly outperformed all existing approaches when the spatial data exhibits a linear or nonlinear trend.

The increasing usage of location-aware devices, such as GPS and RFID, has made moving object management an important task. Especially, being demanded in real-world applications, continuous query processing on moving objects has attracted significant research efforts. However, little attention has been given to the design of concurrent continuous query processing for multi-user environments. In this paper, we propose a concurrency control protocol to efficiently process continuous queries over moving objects on a B-tree-based framework. The proposed protocol integrates link-based and lock-coupling strategies, and is proven to assure serializable isolation, data consistency, and deadlock-free for continuous query processing. Concurrent operations including continuous query, object movement, and query movement are protected under this protocol. Experimental results on benchmark data sets demonstrated the scalability and efficiency of the proposed concurrent framework.

Multidimensional databases are beginning to be used in a wide range of applications. To meet this fast-growing demand, the R-tree family is being applied to support fast access to multidimensional data, for which the R+-tree exhibits outstanding search performance. In order to support efficient concurrent access in multiuser environments, concurrency control mechanisms for multidimensional indexing have been proposed. However, these mechanisms cannot be directly applied to the R+-tree because an object in the R+-tree may be indexed in multiple leaves. This paper proposes a concurrency control protocol for R-tree variants with object clipping, namely, Granular Locking for clipping indexing (GLIP). GLIP is the first concurrency control approach specifically designed for the R+-tree and its variants, and it supports efficient concurrent operations with serializable isolation, consistency, and deadlock-free. Experimental tests on both real and synthetic data sets validated the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed concurrent access framework.

Probability density function estimation is a fundamental component in several stream mining tasks such as outlier detection and classification. The nonparametric adaptive kernel density estimate (AKDE) provides a robust and asymptotically consistent estimate for an arbitrary distribution. However, its extensive computational requirements make it difficult to apply this technique to the stream environment. This paper tackles the issue of developing efficient and asymptotically consistent AKDE over data streams while heeding the stringent constraints imposed by the stream environment. We propose the concept of local regions to effectively synopsize local density features, design a suite of algorithms to maintain the AKDE under a time-based sliding window, and analyze the estimates' asymptotic consistency and computational costs. In addition, extensive experiments were conducted with real-world and synthetic data sets to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our approach.

This work proposes high-performance critical visualization techniques for exploring real-time and historical traffic loop-detector data. Until recently, it has been difficult to discover trends, identify patterns, or locate abnormalities within the massive collection of traffic data. Many of the current visualization techniques do not scale to large data sets and are not practical for interactive visualization. We have developed an effective visualization system, Highway Operation Monitoring and Evaluation System (HOMES), for observing the summarization of spatiotemporal patterns and trends in traffic data. HOMES is designed for browsing the spatial-temporal dimension hierarchy via integrated roll-up and drill-down operations. The identified traffic patterns and rules can assist decision-making for transportation managers, establish traffic models for researchers and planners, and allow travelers to select commuting routes.

Locally linear classification by pairwise coupling addresses a nonlinear classification problem by three basic phases: decompose the classes of complex concepts into linearly separable subclasses, learn a linear classifier for each pair, and combine pairwise classifiers into a single classifier. A number of methods have been proposed in this framework. However, these methods have two major deficiencies: 1) lack of systematic evaluation of this framework; 2) naive application of clustering algorithms to generate subclasses. This paper proves the equivalence between three popular combination schemas under general settings, defines several global criterion functions for measuring the goodness of subclasses, and presents a supervised greedy clustering algorithm to optimize the proposed criterion functions. Extensive experiments were conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed techniques.

Recently, with the broad usage of location-aware devices, applications with moving object management become very popular. In order to manage moving objects efficiently, many spatial/spatial-temporal data access methods have been proposed. However, most of these data access methods are designed for single-user environments. In multiple-user systems, frequent updates may cause a significant number of read-write conflicts using these data access methods. In this paper, we propose an efficient framework, Concurrent LocAtion Management (CLAM), for managing moving objects in multiple-user environments. The proposed concurrency control protocol integrates the efficiency of the link-based approach and the flexibility of the lock-coupling mechanism. Based on this protocol, concurrent location update and search algorithms are provided. We formally analyze and prove the correctness of the proposed concurrent operations. Experiment results on real datasets validate the efficiency and scalability of the proposed concurrent location management framework.

Spatial outliers are the spatial objects whose nonspatial attribute values are quite different from those of their spatial neighbors. Identification of spatial outliers is an important task for data mining researchers and geographers. A number of algorithms have been developed to detect spatial anomalies in meteorological images, transportation systems, and contagious disease data. In this paper, we propose a set of graph-based algorithms to identify spatial outliers. Our method first constructs a graph based on k-nearest neighbor relationship in spatial domain, assigns the nonspatial attribute differences as edge weights, and continuously cuts high- weight edges to identify isolated points or regions that are much dissimilar to their neighboring objects. The proposed algorithms have two major advantages compared with the existing spatial outlier detection methods: accurate in detecting point outliers and capable of identifying region outliers. Experiments conducted on the US Housing data demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithms.

Transportation and the highway network form the backbone of the total public infrastructure system. As such, planning and monitoring for an effective transportation system is crucial in the building and maintenance of a region’s economy and safety. However, demand for road travel continues to expand as population increases (particularly in the metropolitan areas) while new constructions have not kept pace. According to the Federal Highway Administration, it is forecasted that the volume of freight movement alone is to nearly double by 2020 [1]. Congestion and looming gridlock crises seriously threaten any region’s mobility, safety and economic vitality. A crucial component in addressing these concerns is the development of specific technologies to monitor, model, and optimize traffic flow.

Spatial outliers are the spatial objects with distinct features from their surrounding neighbors. Detection of spatial outliers helps reveal valuable information from large spatial data sets. In many real applications, spatial objects can not be simply abstracted as isolated points. They have different boundary, size, volume, and location. These spatial properties affect the impact of a spatial object on its neighbors and should be taken into consideration. In this paper, we propose two spatial outlier detection methods which integrate the impact of spatial properties to the outlierness measurement. Experimental results on a real data set demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.

Due to both limitations of technologies and the nature of the problems, data mining may not be able to solve a problem completely in a way as one wishes. When this happens, we need to first understand the actual need of business, characteristic of available partial solution, and then make compromises between the technology solution and business needs. A majority of the papers published in data mining conferences and journals seem to concentrate only on the success side of the story. In this paper, we discuss our experiences and the complete process from near failure to success when applying inductive learning techniques to predict non-paying customers of competitive local exchange carriers (CLEC's), currently at 20%. Experiments with a number of state-of-the-art methods and algorithms found that most customers were labeled as paying on time. Cost-sensitive learning is not possible since the target company cannot define a cost-model. Finally, after discussing with the billing department, a compromised but still useful solution is to predict the probability that someone will default. The billing team can use the predicted score to prioritize collection efforts as well as to predict cash flow. We have found that two randomized decision tree ensemble methods (Fan's random decision tree and a probabilistic extension of Breiman's random forest) are consistently more accurate in posterior probability estimation than single decision tree based probability calibration methods. The software, both Fan's RDT and probabilistic extension of random forest, as well as a longer version of this paper will be made available by the contacting author.

Data visualization is an important technique that helps in understanding and analysis of complex data. Most of current-web-based geo-spatial data visualization products use two-dimensional visualization. A tool that uses the combination of two-and three-dimensional visualization can provide extra spatial dimension as well as flexible usability. Current Web technologies: scalable vector graphics (SVG), virtual reality modeling language (VRML), and extensible 3D (X3D) provide a necessary foundation for such a tool. In this paper, we present a general framework for effective integration and Web-based presentation of complex heterogeneous spatial-temporal data sets. This framework facilitates interpretation, exploration and analysis of large volume of data with significant geo-spatial and temporal characteristics. Advantages of this approach include improved visualization of geo-spatial and temporal raw data; better navigation and selection of data; and intuitive user interface. A Web-based road traffic visualization system illustrates this approach using the Twin Cities road traffic data.

Spatial outliers are the spatial objects with distinct features from their surrounding neighbors. Detection of spatial outliers helps reveal important and valuable information from large spatial data sets. In the field of meteorology, for example, spatial outliers can be associated with disastrous natural events such as tornadoes, hurricane, and forest fires. Previous study of spatial outlier mainly focuses on point data. However, in the meteorological data or other applications, spatial outliers are frequently represented in region, i.e., a group of points, with two dimensions or even three dimensions, and the previous point-based approaches may not be appropriate to be used. As region outliers are commonly multi-scale objects, wavelet analysis is an effective tool to study them. In this paper, we propose a wavelet analysis based approach to detect region outliers. We discuss the region outlier detection problem and design a suite of algorithms to effectively discover them. The algorithms were implemented and evaluated with a real-world meteorological data set.

A spatial outlier is a spatially referenced object whose non-spatial attribute values are significantly different from the values of its neighborhood. Identification of spatial outliers can lead to the discovery of unexpected, interesting, and useful spatial patterns for further analysis. One drawback of existing methods is that normal objects tend to be falsely detected as spatial outliers when their neighborhood contains true spatial outliers. We propose a suite of spatial outlier detection algorithms to overcome this disadvantage. We formulate the spatial outlier detection problem in a general way and design algorithms which can accurately detect spatial outliers. In addition, using a real-world census data set, we demonstrate that our approaches can not only avoid detecting false spatial outliers but also find true spatial outliers ignored by existing methods.

A spatial outlier is a spatially referenced object whose non-spatial attribute values are significantly different from the values of its neighborhood. Identification of spatial outliers can lead to the discovery of unexpected, interesting, and useful spatial patterns for further analysis. Previous work in spatial outlier detection focuses on detecting spatial outliers with a single attribute. In the paper, we propose two approaches to discover spatial outliers with multiple attributes. We formulate the multi-attribute spatial outlier detection problem in a general way, provide two effective detection algorithms, and analyze their computation complexity. In addition, using a real-world census data, we demonstrate that our approaches can effectively identify local abnormality in large spatial data sets.

Data mining is the process of extracting implicit, valuable, and interesting information from large sets of data. Visualization is the process of visually exploring data for pattern and trend analysis, and it is a common method of browsing spatial datasets to look for patterns. However the growing volume of spatial datasets make it difficult for humans to browse such datasets in their entirety, and data mining algorithms are needed to filter out large uninteresting parts of spatial datasets. We construct a web-based visualization software package for observing the summarization of spatial patterns and temporal trends. We also present data mining algorithms for filtering out vast parts of datasets for spatial outlier patterns. The algorithms were implemented and tested with a real-world set of Minneapolis-St. Paul (Twin Cities) traffic data.

A join-index is a data structure used for processing join queries in databases. Join-indices use precomputation techniques to speed up online query processing and are useful for data sets which are updated infrequently. The I/O cost of join computation using a join-index with limited buffer space depends primarily on the page-access sequence used to fetch the pages of the base relations. Given a join-index, we introduce a suite of methods based on clustering to compute the joins. We derive upper bounds on the length of the page-access sequences. Experimental results with Sequoia 2000 data sets show that the clustering method outperforms existing methods based on sorting and online-clustering heuristics.

Identification of outliers can lead to the discovery of unexpected, interesting, and useful knowledge. Existing methods are designed for detecting spatial outliers in multidimensional geometric data sets, where a distance metric is available. In this paper, we focus on detecting spatial outliers in graph structured data sets. We define statistical tests, analyze the statistical foundation underlying our approach, design several fast algorithms to detect spatial outliers, and provide a cost model for outlier detection procedures. In addition, we provide experimental results from the application of our algorithms on a Minneapolis-St.Paul(Twin Cities) traffic dataset to show their effectiveness and usefulness.

Spatial databases, addressing the growing data management and analysis needs of spatial applications such as geographic information systems, have been an active area of research for more than two decades. This research has produced a taxonomy of models for space, spatial data types and operators, spatial query languages and processing strategies, as well as spatial indexes and clustering techniques. However, more research is needed to improve support for network and field data, as well as query processing (e.g., cost models, bulk load). Another important need is to apply spatial data management accomplishments to newer applications, such as data warehouses and multimedia information systems. The objective of this paper is to identify recent accomplishments and associated research needs of the near term.

The cost of join computation, which uses a join index in a sequential system with limited buffer space, depends primarily on the page access sequence used to fetch the pages of the base relations. We introduce a graph partitioning model that will minimize the length of the page access sequence thus minimizing the redundant I/O, given a fixed buffer. Experiments with Sequoia 2000 data sets show that the graph partitioning method outperforms the existing methods based on sorting and online clustering, particularly for a small number of buffers and high join selectivity.