The ability to make predictions about future events is at the heart of much of science; so, it is not surprising that prediction has been a topic of great interest in the data mining community for the last decade. Most of the previous work has attempted to predict the future based on the current value of a stream. However, for many problems the actual values are irrelevant, whereas the shape of the current time series pattern may foretell the future. The handful of research efforts that consider this variant of the problem have met with limited success. In particular, it is now understood that most of these efforts allow the discovery of spurious rules. We believe the reason why rule discovery in real-valued time series has failed thus far is because most efforts have more or less indiscriminately applied the ideas of symbolic stream rule discovery to real-valued rule discovery. In this work, we show why these ideas are not directly suitable for rule discovery in time series. Beyond our novel definitions/representations, which allow for meaningful and extendable specifications of rules, we further show novel algorithms that allow us to quickly discover high quality rules in very large datasets that accurately predict the occurrence of future events.

Extensive research on time series classification in the last decade has produced fast and accurate algorithms for the single-dimensional case. However, the increasing prevalence of inexpensive sensors has reinforced the need for algorithms to handle multi-dimensional time series. For example, modern smartphones have at least a dozen sensors capable of producing streaming time series, and hospital-based (and increasingly, home-based) medical devices can produce time series streams from more than twenty sensors. The two most common ways to generalize from single to multi-dimensional data are to use all the streams or just the single best stream as determined at training time. However, as we show here, both approaches can be very brittle. Moreover, neither approach exploits the observation that different sensors may be considered "experts" on different classes. In this work, we introduce a novel framework for multi-dimensional time series classification that weights the class prediction from each time series stream. These weights are based not only on each stream's previous track record on the class it is currently predicting, but also on the distance from the unlabeled object. As we demonstrate with extensive experiments on real data, our method is more accurate than current approaches and particularly robust in the face of concept drift or sensor noise.

Time series classification has been an active area of research in the data mining community for over a decade, and significant progress has been made in the tractability and accuracy of learning. However, virtually all work assumes a one-time training session in which labeled examples of all the concepts to be learned are provided. This assumption may be valid in a handful of situations, but it does not hold in most medical and scientific applications where we initially may have only the vaguest understanding of what concepts can be learned. Based on this observation, we propose a never-ending learning framework for time series in which an agent examines an unbounded stream of data and occasionally asks a teacher (which may be a human or an algorithm) for a label. We demonstrate the utility of our ideas with experiments in domains as diverse as medicine, entomology, wildlife monitoring, and human behavior analyses.

Time series clustering has become an increasingly important research topic over the past decade. Most existing methods for time series clustering rely on distances calculated from the entire raw data using the Euclidean distance or Dynamic Time Warping distance as the distance measure. However, the presence of significant noise, dropouts, or extraneous data can greatly limit the accuracy of clustering in this domain. Moreover, for most real world problems, we cannot expect objects from the same class to be equal in length. As a consequence, most work on time series clustering only considers the clustering of individual time series "behaviors," e.g., individual heart beats or individual gait cycles, and contrives the time series in some way to make them all equal in length. However, contriving the data in such a way is often a harder problem than the clustering itself. In this work, we show that by using only some local patterns and deliberately ignoring the rest of the data, we can mitigate the above problems and cluster time series of different lengths, i.e., cluster one heartbeat with multiple heartbeats. To achieve this we exploit and extend a recently introduced concept in time series data mining called shapelets. Unlike existing work, our work demonstrates for the first time the unintuitive fact that shapelets can be learned from unlabeled time series. We show, with extensive empirical evaluation in diverse domains, that our method is more accurate than existing methods. Moreover, in addition to accurate clustering results, we show that our work also has the potential to give insights into the domains to which it is applied.

Most time series data mining algorithms use similarity search as a core subroutine, and thus the time taken for similarity search is the bottleneck for virtually all time series data mining algorithms. The difficulty of scaling search to large datasets largely explains why most academic work on time series data mining has plateaued at considering a few millions of time series objects, while much of industry and science sits on billions of time series objects waiting to be explored. In this work we show that by using a combination of four novel ideas we can search and mine truly massive time series for the first time. We demonstrate the following extremely unintuitive fact; in large datasets we can exactly search under DTW much more quickly than the current state-of-the-art Euclidean distance search algorithms. We demonstrate our work on the largest set of time series experiments ever attempted. In particular, the largest dataset we consider is larger than the combined size of all of the time series datasets considered in all data mining papers ever published. We show that our ideas allow us to solve higher-level time series data mining problem such as motif discovery and clustering at scales that would otherwise be untenable. In addition to mining massive datasets, we will show that our ideas also have implications for real-time monitoring of data streams, allowing us to handle much faster arrival rates and/or use cheaper and lower powered devices than are currently possible.

Many animals produce long sequences of vocalizations best described as “songs.” In some animals, such as crickets and frogs, these songs are relatively simple and repetitive chirps or trills. However, animals as diverse as whales, bats, birds and even the humble mice considered here produce intricate and complex songs. These songs are worthy of study in their own right. For example, the study of bird songs has helped to cast light on various questions in the nature vs. nurture debate. However, there is a particular reason why the study of mice songs can benefit mankind. The house mouse (Mus musculus) has long been an important model organism in biology and medicine, and it is by far the most commonly used genetically altered laboratory mammal to address human diseases. While there has been significant recent efforts to analyze mice songs, advances in sensor technology have created a situation where our ability to collect data far outstrips our ability to analyze it. In this work we argue that the time is ripe for archives of mice songs to fall into the purview of data mining. We show a novel technique for mining mice vocalizations directly in the visual (spectrogram) space that practitioners currently use. Working in this space allows us to bring an arsenal of data mining tools to bear on this important domain, including similarity search, classification, motif discovery and contrast set mining.