Maintenance decisions in domains such as aeronautics are becoming increasingly dependent on being able to predict the failure of components and systems. When data-driven techniques are used for this prognostic task, they often face headwinds due to their perceived lack of interpretability. To address this issue, this paper examines how features used in a data-driven prognostic approach correlate with established metrics of monotonicity, trendability, and prognosability. In particular, we use the SHAP model (SHapley Additive exPlanations) from the field of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) to analyze the outcome of three increasingly complex algorithms: Linear Regression, Multi-Layer Perceptron, and Echo State Network. Our goal is to test the hypothesis that the prognostics metrics correlate with the SHAP model's explanations, i.e., the SHAP values. We use baseline data from a standard data set that contains several hundred run-to-failure trajectories for jet engines. The results indicate that SHAP values track very closely with these metrics with differences observed between the models that support the assertion that model complexity is a significant factor to consider when explainability is a consideration in prognostics.

When the influence of changing operational and environmental conditions, such as temperature and external loading, is not factored out from sensor data it can be difficult to observe a clear deterioration path. This can significantly affect the task of engineering prognostics and other health management operations. To address this problem of dynamic operating regimes, it is necessary to baseline the data, typically by first finding the operating regimes and then normalizing the data within each regime. This paper describes a baselining solution based on neural networks. A self-organizing map is used to identify the regimes, and a multi-layer perceptron is used to normalize the sensor data according to the detected regimes. Tests are performed on public datasets from a turbofan simulator. The approach can produce similar results to classical methods without the need to specify in advance the number of regimes and the explicit computation of the statistical properties of a hold-out dataset. Importantly, the techniques can be integrated into a deep learning system to perform prognostics in a single pass.

An important requirement of household energy simulation models is their accuracy in estimating energy demand and its fluctuations. Occupant behavior has a major impact upon energy demand. However, Markov chains, the traditional approach to model occupant behavior, (1) has limitations in accurately capturing the coordinated behavior of occupants and (2) is prone to over-fitting. To address these issues, we propose a novel approach that relies on a combination of data mining techniques. The core idea of our model is to determine the behavior of occupants based on nearest neighbor comparison over a database of sample data. Importantly, the model takes into account features related to the coordination of occupants' activities. We use a customized distance function suited for mixed categorical and numerical data. Further, association rule learning allows us to capture the coordination between occupants. Using real data from four households in Japan we are able to show that our model outperforms the traditional Markov chain model with respect to occupant coordination and generalization of behavior patterns.