Effective early warning systems for extreme flood events in large river basins necessitate reliable long-lead streamflow forecasts. However, the inherent uncertainty within each phase of the weather system-rainfall prediction, runoff generation, and streamflow prediction-amplifies with each stage, rendering accurate long-lead streamflow estimations challenging. In response to this, our study introduces a novel deep-learning-based model, the Cascaded Spatio-Temporal Learning Deep Network (CASTLE). CASTLE synergistically integrates observed upstream precipitation, recent streamflow data, and short-term precipitation forecasts derived from a selection of quantitative climate models to produce an accurate streamflow estimate. Specifically, we employ deep residual architectures on both observed and forecasted precipitation data to model the cascading spatio-temporal processes, which begin with upstream rainfall, move to rainfall-runoff, and finally conclude with downstream discharge. Our aim is to identify hidden space-time patterns that can be used to forecast future downstream flow over extended periods. We assess CASTLE’s efficacy by forecasting the downstream discharge of the Ganges River over a long lead time. Results show that our approach outperforms the current state-of-the-art streamflow forecasting models.

Recent research efforts aim at utilizing Big Climate Data to predict floods 5 to 15 days in advance. Improvements in the prediction of heavy precipitation, a major factor related with flood occurrences, have lagged behind due to the high-dimensionality and non-linearity in the weather, hydriology and dydraulic systems. In this paper, we introduce Spatio-Temporal Asynchronous Co-Occurrence Pattern to associate heavy precipitation with dense precipitable water and explore long-lead flood prediction from the machine learning perspective. Our model predicts one location's flooding risk by connecting the heavy precipitation with its preceding precipitable water through an association mining method. We discover asynchronous co-occurrence location and discuss a spatio-temporal ensemble learning method for predictive modeling. Our framework requires less computational cost and smaller train data compared to other existing approaches. In addition, the framework is designed to be scalable and allows distributed computing. Our real-world case study in the state of Iowa has achieved 87% accuracy on predicting the heavy precipitations which trigger severe floods at least 9 days in advance.

Reliable tornado forecasting with a long-lead time can greatly support emergency response and is of vital importance for the economy and society. The large number of meteorological variables in spatiotemporal domains and the complex relationships among variables remain the top difficulties for a long-lead tornado forecasting.

The development of disastrous flood forecasting techniques able to provide warnings at a long lead-time (5-15 days) is of great importance to society. Extreme Flood is usually a consequence of a sequence of precipitation events occurring over from several days to several weeks. Though precise short-term forecasting the magnitude and extent of individual precipitation event is still beyond our reach, long-term forecasting of precipitation clusters can be attempted by identifying persistent atmospheric regimes that are conducive for the precipitation clusters. However, such forecasting will suffer from overwhelming number of relevant features and high imbalance of sample sets. In this paper, we propose an integrated data mining framework for identifying the precursors to precipitation event clusters and use this information to predict extended periods of extreme precipitation and subsequent floods. We synthesize a representative feature set that describes the atmosphere motion, and apply a streaming feature selection algorithm to online identify the precipitation precursors from the enormous feature space. A hierarchical re-sampling approach is embedded in the framework to deal with the imbalance problem. An extensive empirical study is conducted on historical precipitation and associated flood data collected in the State of Iowa. Utilizing our framework a few physically meaningful precipitation cluster precursor sets are identified from millions of features. More than 90% of extreme precipitation events are captured by the proposed prediction model using precipitation cluster precursors with a lead time of more than 5 days.