The prediction objectives of online advertisement ranking models are evolving from probabilistic metrics like conversion rate (CVR) to numerical business metrics like post-click gross merchandise volume (GMV). Unlike the well-studied delayed feedback problem in CVR prediction, delayed feedback modeling for GMV prediction remains unexplored and poses greater challenges, as GMV is a continuous target, and a single click can lead to multiple purchases that cumulatively form the label.

In industrial recommender systems, conversion rate (CVR) is often used for traffic allocation, but fails to fully reflect recommendation effectiveness as it does not account for refund rate (RFR). Thus, net conversion rate (NetCVR), the probability that a clicked item is purchased and not refunded, is proposed to better show true user satisfaction and business value. Unlike CVR, NetCVR prediction involves a more complex multi-stage cascaded delay feedback phenomenon. The two cascaded delays Click->Conversion and Conversion->Refund in NetCVR have opposite effects. Therefore, traditional CVR methods cannot be directly applied. At present, the lack of relevant open-source datasets and online continuous training schemes poses a challenge. To address these, we first introduce CAscadal Sequences of Conversion And Delayed rEfund (CASCADE), the first large-scale open dataset derived from Taobao app for online continuous NetCVR prediction. We further analyze CASCADE and derive three key insights: (1) NetCVR exhibits clear temporal patterns necessitating online continuous modeling; (2) Cascaded modeling CVR and RFR for NetCVR outperforms directly modeling NetCVR; and (3) delay time, which correlated with both CVR and RFR, is an important feature for NetCVR prediction. Based on these insights, we propose neT convErsion caScaded modeLing and debiAsing method (TESLA). This continuous method features a CVR-RFR cascaded architecture, stage-wise debiasing, and a delay-time-aware ranking loss for efficient NetCVR prediction. Experiments show that TESLA outperforms state-of-the-art methods on CASCADE, achieving an absolute improvement of 12.41% in RI-AUC and 14.94% in RI-PRAUC on NetCVR over the strongest baseline. We hope this work provides a new direction for online delayed feedback modeling in NetCVR prediction. Our code and dataset are available at https://github.com/alimama-tech/NetCVR.

Existing sequential recommendation models are mostly based on sequential models, which can be misled by inconsistent items in the local sequence. This study proposes GlobalDiff, a plug-and-play framework to enhance the performance of sequential models by utilizing a diffusion model to restore the global non-sequential data structure of the item universe and compensate for the local sequential context. Several novel techniques are proposed, including training construction, guided reverse approximator, and inference ensemble, to seamlessly integrate the diffusion model with the sequential model. Extensive experiments on various datasets demonstrate that GlobalDiff can enhance advanced sequential models by an average improvement of 9.67%.