Dimensionality reduction is critical across various domains of science including neuroscience. Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis (PPCA) is a prominent dimensionality reduction method that provides a probabilistic approach unlike the deterministic approach of PCA and serves as a connection between PCA and Factor Analysis (FA). Despite their power, PPCA and its extensions are mainly based on linear models and can only describe the data in a Euclidean coordinate system around the mean of data. However, in many neuroscience applications, data may be distributed around a nonlinear geometry (i.e., manifold) rather than lying in the Euclidean space around the mean. We develop Probabilistic Geometric Principal Component Analysis (PGPCA) for such datasets as a new dimensionality reduction algorithm that can explicitly incorporate knowledge about a given nonlinear manifold that is first fitted from these data. Further, we show how in addition to the Euclidean coordinate system, a geometric coordinate system can be derived for the manifold to capture the deviations of data from the manifold and noise. We also derive a data-driven EM algorithm for learning the PGPCA model parameters. As such, PGPCA generalizes PPCA to better describe data distributions by incorporating a nonlinear manifold geometry. In simulations and brain data analyses, we show that PGPCA can effectively model the data distribution around various given manifolds and outperforms PPCA for such data. Moreover, PGPCA provides the capability to test whether the new geometric coordinate system better describes the data than the Euclidean one. Finally, PGPCA can perform dimensionality reduction and learn the data distribution both around and on the manifold. These capabilities make PGPCA valuable for enhancing the efficacy of dimensionality reduction for analysis of high-dimensional data that exhibit noise and are distributed around a nonlinear manifold, especially for neural data.

Closed-loop neurotechnologies often need to adaptively learn an encoding model that relates the neural activity to the brain state, and is used for brain state decoding. The speed and accuracy of adaptive learning algorithms are critically affected by the learning rate, which dictates how fast model parameters are updated based on new observations. Despite the importance of the learning rate, currently an analytical approach for its selection is largely lacking and existing signal processing methods vastly tune it empirically or heuristically. Here, we develop a novel analytical calibration algorithm for optimal selection of the learning rate in adaptive Bayesian filters. We formulate the problem through a fundamental trade-off that learning rate introduces between the steady-state error and the convergence time of the estimated model parameters. We derive explicit functions that predict the effect of learning rate on error and convergence time. Using these functions, our calibration algorithm can keep the steady-state parameter error covariance smaller than a desired upper-bound while minimizing the convergence time, or keep the convergence time faster than a desired value while minimizing the error. We derive the algorithm both for discrete-valued spikes modeled as point processes nonlinearly dependent on the brain state, and for continuous-valued neural recordings modeled as Gaussian processes linearly dependent on the brain state. Using extensive closed-loop simulations, we show that the analytical solution of the calibration algorithm accurately predicts the effect of learning rate on parameter error and convergence time. Moreover, the calibration algorithm allows for fast and accurate learning of the encoding model and for fast convergence of decoding to accurate performance. Finally, larger learning rates result in inaccurate encoding models and decoders, and smaller learning rates delay their convergence. The calibration algorithm provides a novel analytical approach to predictably achieve a desired level of error and convergence time in adaptive learning, with application to closed-loop neurotechnologies and other signal processing domains.