Score matching is a vital tool for learning the distribution of data with applications across many areas including diffusion processes, energy based modelling, and graphical model estimation. Despite all these applications, little work explores its use when data is incomplete. We address this by adapting score matching (and its major extensions) to work with missing data in a flexible setting where data can be partially missing over any subset of the coordinates. We provide two separate score matching variations for general use, an importance weighting (IW) approach, and a variational approach. We provide finite sample bounds for our IW approach in finite domain settings and show it to have especially strong performance in small sample lower dimensional cases. Complementing this, we show our variational approach to be strongest in more complex high-dimensional settings which we demonstrate on graphical model estimation tasks on both real and simulated data.

The conditional quantile treatment effect (CQTE) can provide insight into the effect of a treatment beyond the conditional average treatment effect (CATE). This ability to provide information over multiple quantiles of the response makes the CQTE especially valuable in cases where the effect of a treatment is not well-modelled by a location shift, even conditionally on the covariates. Nevertheless, the estimation of the CQTE is challenging and often depends upon the smoothness of the individual quantiles as a function of the covariates rather than smoothness of the CQTE itself. This is in stark contrast to the CATE where it is possible to obtain high-quality estimates which have less dependency upon the smoothness of the nuisance parameters when the CATE itself is smooth. Moreover, relative smoothness of the CQTE lacks the interpretability of smoothness of the CATE making it less clear whether it is a reasonable assumption to make. We combine the desirable properties of the CATE and CQTE by considering a new estimand, the conditional quantile comparator (CQC). The CQC not only retains information about the whole treatment distribution, similar to the CQTE, but also having more natural examples of smoothness and is able to leverage simplicity in an auxiliary estimand. We provide finite sample bounds on the error of our estimator, demonstrating its ability to exploit simplicity. We validate our theory in numerical simulations which show that our method produces more accurate estimates than baselines. Finally, we apply our methodology to a study on the effect of employment incentives on earnings across different age groups. We see that our method is able to reveal heterogeneity of the effect across different quantiles.

Abstract High dimensional learning is a perennial problem due to challenges posed by the “curse of dimensionality”; learning typically demands more computing resources as well as more training data. In differentially private (DP) settings, this is further exacerbated by noise that needs adding to each dimension to achieve the required privacy. In this paper, we present a surprisingly simple approach to address all of these concerns at once, based on histograms constructed on a low-dimensional random projection (RP) of the data. Our approach exploits RP to take advantage of hidden low-dimensional structures in the data, yielding both computational efficiency, and improved error convergence with respect to the sample size—whereby less training data suffice for learning. We also propose a variant for efficient differentially private (DP) classification that further exploits the data-oblivious nature of both the histogram construction and the RP based dimensionality reduction, resulting in an efficient management of the privacy budget. We present a detailed and rigorous theoretical analysis of generalisation of our algorithms in several settings, showing that our approach is able to exploit low-dimensional structure of the data, ameliorates the ill-effects of noise required for privacy, and has good generalisation under minimal conditions. We also corroborate our findings experimentally, and demonstrate that our algorithms achieve competitive classification accuracy in both non-private and private settings.

Abstract High dimensional learning is data-hungry in general; however, many natural data sources and real-world learning problems posses some hidden low-complexity structure that permit effective learning from relatively small sample sizes. We are interested in the general question of how to discover and exploit such hidden benign traits when problem-specific prior knowledge is insufficient. In this work, we address this question through random projection’s ability to expose structure. We study both compressive learning and high dimensional learning from this angle by introducing the notions of compressive distortion and compressive complexity. We give user-friendly PAC bounds in the agnostic setting that are formulated in terms of these quantities, and we show that our bounds can be tight when these quantities are small. We then instantiate these quantities in several examples of particular learning problems, demonstrating their ability to discover interpretable structural characteristics that make high dimensional instances of these problems solvable to good approximation in a random linear subspace. In the examples considered, these turn out to resemble some familiar benign traits such as the margin, the margin distribution, the intrinsic dimension, the spectral decay of the data covariance, or the norms of parameters—while our general notions of compressive distortion and compressive complexity serve to unify these, and may be used to discover benign structural traits for other PAC-learnable problems.

Abstract We present a general framework for dealing with set heterogeneity in data and learning problems, which is able to exploit low complexity components. The main ingredients are (i) A definition of complexity for elements of a convex union that takes into account the complexities of their individual composition – this is used to cover the heterogeneous convex union; and (ii) Upper bounds on the complexities of restricted subsets. We demonstrate this approach in two different application areas, highlighting their conceptual connection. (1) In random projection based dimensionality reduction, we obtain improved bounds on the uniform preservation of Euclidean norms and distances when low complexity components are present in the union. (2) In statistical learning, our generalisation bounds justify heterogeneous ensemble learning methods that were incompletely understood before. We exemplify empirical results with boosting type random subspace and random projection ensembles that implement our bounds.

Density Ratio Estimation (DRE) is an important machine learning technique with many downstream applications. We consider the challenge of DRE with missing not at random (MNAR) data. In this setting, we show that using standard DRE methods leads to biased results while our proposal (M-KLIEP), an adaptation of the popular DRE procedure KLIEP, restores consistency. Moreover, we provide finite sample estimation error bounds for M-KLIEP, which demonstrate minimax optimality with respect to both sample size and worst-case missingness. We then adapt an important downstream application of DRE, Neyman-Pearson (NP) classification, to this MNAR setting. Our procedure both controls Type I error and achieves high power, with high probability. Finally, we demonstrate promising empirical performance both synthetic data and real-world data with simulated missingness.

We present a theory of ensemble diversity, explaining the nature of diversity for a wide range of supervised learning scenarios. This challenge has been referred to as the “holy grail” of ensemble learning, an open research issue for over 30 years. Our framework reveals that diversity is in fact a hidden dimension in the bias-variance decomposition of the ensemble loss. We prove a family of exact bias-variance-diversity decompositions, for a wide range of losses in both regression and classification, e.g., squared, cross-entropy, and Poisson losses. For losses where an additive bias-variance decomposition is not available (e.g., 0/1 loss) we present an alternative approach: quantifying the effects of diversity, which turn out to be dependent on the label distribution. Overall, we argue that diversity is a measure of model fit, in precisely the same sense as bias and variance, but accounting for statistical dependencies between ensemble members. Thus, we should not be ‘maximising diversity’ as so many works aim to do---instead, we have a bias/variance/diversity trade-off to manage.

We investigate the challenge of multi-output learning, where the goal is to learn a vector-valued function based on a supervised data set. This includes a range of important problems in Machine Learning including multi-target regression, multi-class classification and multi-label classification. We begin our analysis by introducing the self-bounding Lipschitz condition for multi-output loss functions, which interpolates continuously between a classical Lipschitz condition and a multi-dimensional analogue of a smoothness condition. We then show that the self-bounding Lipschitz condition gives rise to optimistic bounds for multi-output learning, which attain the minimax optimal rate up to logarithmic factors. The proof exploits local Rademacher complexity combined with a powerful minoration inequality due to Srebro, Sridharan and Tewari. As an application we derive a state-of-the-art generalisation bound for multi-class gradient boosting.

Mixture proportion estimation is a building block in many weakly supervised classification tasks (missing labels, label noise, anomaly detection). Estimators with finite sample guarantees help analyse algorithms for such tasks, but so far only exist for Euclidean and Hilbert space data. We generalise the framework of Blanchard, Lee and Scott to allow extensions to other data types, and exemplify its use by deducing novel estimators for metric space data, and for randomly compressed Euclidean data – both of which make use of favourable geometry to tighten guarantees. Finally we demonstrate a theoretical link with the state of the art estimator specialised for Hilbert space data.

We investigate the problem of classification in the presence of unknown class-conditional label noise in which the labels observed by the learner have been corrupted with some unknown class dependent probability. In order to obtain finite sample rates, previous approaches to classification with unknown class-conditional label noise have required that the regression function is close to its extrema on sets of large measure. We shall consider this problem in the setting of non-compact metric spaces, where the regression function need not attain its extrema. In this setting we determine the minimax optimal learning rates (up to logarithmic factors). The rate displays interesting threshold behaviour: When the regression function approaches its extrema at a sufficient rate, the optimal learning rates are of the same order as those obtained in the label-noise free setting. If the regression function approaches its extrema more gradually then classification performance necessarily degrades. In addition, we present an adaptive algorithm which attains these rates without prior knowledge of either the distributional parameters or the local density. This identifies for the first time a scenario in which finite sample rates are achievable in the label noise setting, but they differ from the optimal rates without label noise.

We consider classification in the presence of class-dependent asymmetric label noise with unknown noise probabilities. In this setting, identifiability conditions are known, but additional assumptions were shown to be required for finite sample rates, and so far only the parametric rate has been obtained. Assuming these identifiability conditions, together with a measure-smoothness condition on the regression function and Tsybakov’s margin condition, we show that the Robust kNN classifier of Gao et al. attains, the mini-max optimal rates of the noise-free setting, up to a log factor, even when trained on data with unknown asymmetric label noise. Hence, our results provide a solid theoretical backing for this empirically successful algorithm. By contrast the standard kNN is not even consistent in the setting of asymmetric label noise. A key idea in our analysis is a simple kNN based method for estimating the maximum of a function that requires far less assumptions than existing mode estimators do, and which may be of independent interest for noise proportion estimation and randomised optimisation problems.

In this paper we propose and explore the $k$-Nearest Neighbour UCB algorithm for multi-armed bandits with covariates. We focus on a setting where covariates are supported on a metric space of low intrinsic dimension, such as a manifold embedded within a high dimensional ambient feature space. The algorithm is conceptually simple and straightforward to implement. Unlike previous methods such as the UCBogram and Adaptively Binned Successive Elimination, the $k$-Nearest Neighbour UCB algorithm does not require prior knowledge of the intrinsic dimension of the marginal distribution. It is also naturally anytime, without resorting to the doubling trick. We prove a regret bound for the $k$-Nearest Neighbour UCB algorithm which is minimax optimal up to logarithmic factors. In particular, the algorithm automatically takes advantage of both low intrinsic dimensionality of the marginal distribution over the covariates and low noise in the data, expressed as a margin condition. In addition, focusing on the case of bounded rewards, we give corresponding regret bounds for the $k$-Nearest Neighbour KL-UCB algorithm, which is an analogue of the KL-UCB algorithm adapted to the setting of multi-armed bandits with covariates. Finally, we present empirical results which demonstrate the ability of both the $k$-Nearest Neighbour UCB and $k$-Nearest Neighbour KL-UCB to take advantage of situations where the data is supported on an unknown sub-manifold of a high-dimensional feature space.

Ensemble methods are a cornerstone of modern machine learning. The performance of an ensemble depends crucially upon the level of diversity between its constituent learners. This paper establishes a connection between diversity and degrees of freedom (i.e. the capacity of the model), showing that diversity may be viewed as a form of inverse regularisation. This is achieved by focusing on a previously published algorithm Negative Correlation Learning (NCL), in which model diversity is explicitly encouraged through a diversity penalty term in the loss function. We provide an exact formula for the effective degrees of freedom in an NCL ensemble with fixed basis functions, showing that it is a continuous, convex and monotonically increasing function of the diversity parameter. We demonstrate a connection to Tikhonov regularisation and show that, with an appropriately chosen diversity parameter, an NCL ensemble can always outperform the unregularised ensemble in the presence of noise. We demonstrate the practical utility of our approach by deriving a method to efficiently tune the diversity parameter. Finally, we use a Monte-Carlo estimator to extend the connection between diversity and degrees of freedom to ensembles of deep neural networks.

We study the approximate nearest neighbour method for cost-sensitive classification on low-dimensional manifolds embedded within a high-dimensional feature space. We determine the minimax learning rates for distributions on a smooth manifold, in a cost-sensitive setting. This generalises a classic result of Audibert and Tsybakov. Building upon recent work of Chaudhuri and Dasgupta we prove that these minimax rates are attained by the approximate nearest neighbour algorithm, where neighbours are computed in a randomly projected low-dimensional space. In addition, we give a bound on the number of dimensions required for the projection which depends solely upon the reach and dimension of the manifold, combined with the regularity of the marginal.