Following detection and tracking of traffic actors, prediction of their future motion is the next critical component of a self-driving vehicle (SDV) technology, allowing the SDV to operate safely and efficiently in its environment. This is particularly important when it comes to vulnerable road users (VRUs), such as pedestrians and bicyclists. These actors need to be handled with special care due to an increased risk of injury, as well as the fact that their behavior is less predictable than that of motorized actors. To address this issue, in the current study we present a deep learning-based method for predicting VRU movement, where we rasterize high-definition maps and actor's surroundings into a bird's-eye view image used as an input to deep convolutional networks. In addition, we propose a fast architecture suitable for real-time inference, and perform an ablation study of various rasterization approaches to find the optimal choice for accurate prediction. The results strongly indicate benefits of using the proposed approach for motion prediction of VRUs, both in terms of accuracy and latency.

Autonomous driving presents one of the largest problems that the robotics and artificial intelligence communities are facing at the moment, both in terms of difficulty and potential societal impact. Self-driving vehicles (SDVs) are expected to prevent road accidents and save millions of lives while improving the livelihood and life quality of many more. However, despite large interest and a number of industry players working in the autonomous domain, there still remains more to be done in order to develop a system capable of operating at a level comparable to best human drivers. One reason for this is high uncertainty of traffic behavior and large number of situations that an SDV may encounter on the roads, making it very difficult to create a fully generalizable system. To ensure safe and efficient operations, an autonomous vehicle is required to account for this uncertainty and to anticipate a multitude of possible behaviors of traffic actors in its surrounding. We address this critical problem and present a method to predict multiple possible trajectories of actors while also estimating their probabilities. The method encodes each actor's surrounding context into a raster image, used as input by deep convolutional networks to automatically derive relevant features for the task. Following extensive offline evaluation and comparison to state-of-the-art baselines, the method was successfully tested on SDVs in closed-course tests.

We design an active learning algorithm for cost-sensitive multiclass classification: problems where different errors have different costs. Our algorithm, COAL, makes predictions by regressing to each label's cost and predicting the smallest. On a new example, it uses a set of regressors that perform well on past data to estimate possible costs for each label. It queries only the labels that could be the best, ignoring the sure losers. We prove COAL can be efficiently implemented for any regression family that admits squared loss optimization; it also enjoys strong guarantees with respect to predictive performance and labeling effort. We empirically compare COAL to passive learning and several active learning baselines, showing significant improvements in labeling effort and test cost on real-world datasets.

We design an active learning algorithm for cost-sensitive multiclass classification: problems where different errors have different costs. Our algorithm, COAL, makes predictions by regressing to each label’s cost and predicting the smallest. On a new example, it uses a set of regressors that perform well on past data to estimate possible costs for each label. It queries only the labels that could be the best, ignoring the sure losers. We prove COAL can be efficiently implemented for any regression family that admits squared loss optimization; it also enjoys strong guarantees with respect to predictive performance and labeling effort. Our experiment with COAL show significant improvements in labeling effort and test cost over passive and active baselines.

Protecting vast quantities of data poses a daunting challenge for the growing number of organizations that collect, stockpile, and monetize it. The ability to distinguish data that is actually needed from data collected "just in case" would help these organizations to limit the latter's exposure to attack. A natural approach might be to monitor data use and retain only the working-set of in-use data in accessible storage, unused data can be evicted to a highly protected store. However, many of today's big data applications rely on machine learning (ML) workloads that are periodically retrained by accessing, and thus exposing to attack, the entire data store. Training set minimization methods, such as count featurization, are often used to limit the data needed to train ML workloads to improve performance or scalability. We present Pyramid, a limited-exposure data management system that builds upon count featurization to enhance data protection. As such, Pyramid uniquely introduces both the idea and proof-of-concept for leveraging training set minimization methods to instill rigor and selectivity into big data management. We integrated Pyramid into Spark Velox, a framework for ML-based targeting and personalization. We evaluate it on three applications and show that Pyramid approaches state-of-the-art models while training on less than 1% of the raw data.

We present a theoretical analysis of active learning with more realistic interactions with human oracles. Previous empirical studies have shown oracles abstaining on difficult queries until accumulating enough information to make label decisions. We formalize this phenomenon with an “oracle epiphany model” and analyze active learning query complexity under such oracles for both the realizable and the agnos- tic cases. Our analysis shows that active learning is possible with oracle epiphany, but incurs an additional cost depending on when the epiphany happens. Our results suggest new, principled active learning approaches with realistic oracles.

We develop a new active learning algorithm for the streaming settingsatisfying three important properties: 1) It provably works for anyclassifier representation and classification problem including thosewith severe noise. 2) It is efficiently implementable with an ERMoracle. 3) It is more aggressive than all previous approachessatisfying 1 and 2. To do this, we create an algorithm based on a newlydefined optimization problem and analyze it. We also conduct the firstexperimental analysis of all efficient agnostic active learningalgorithms, evaluating their strengths and weaknesses in differentsettings.

Transfer learning algorithms are used when one has sufficient training data for one supervised learning task (the source task) but only very limited training data for a second task (the target task) that is similar but not identical to the first. These algorithms use varying assumptions about the similarity between the tasks to carry information from the source to the target task. Common assumptions are that only certain specific marginal or conditional distributions have changed while all else remains the same. Alternatively, if one has only the target task, but also has the ability to choose a limited amount of additional training data to collect, then active learning algorithms are used to make choices which will most improve performance on the target task. These algorithms may be combined into active transfer learning, but previous efforts have had to apply the two methods in sequence or use restrictive transfer assumptions. We propose two transfer learning algorithms that allow changes in all marginal and conditional distributions but assume the changes are smooth in order to achieve transfer between the tasks. We then propose an active learning algorithm for the second method that yields a combined active transfer learning algorithm. We demonstrate the algorithms on synthetic functions and a real-world task on estimating the yield of vineyards from images of the grapes.

We develop spectral learning algorithms for Hidden Markov Models that learn not only from time series, or dynamic data but also static data drawn independently from the HMM’s stationary distribution. This is motivated by the fact that static, orderless snapshots are usually easier to obtain than time series in quite a few dynamic modeling tasks. Building on existing spectral learning algorithms, our methods solve convex optimization problems minimizing squared loss on the dynamic data plus a regularization term on the static data. Experiments on synthetic and real human activities data demonstrate better prediction by the proposed method than existing spectral algorithms.

Learning dynamic models from observed data has been a central issue in many scientific studies or engineering tasks. The usual setting is that data are collected sequentially from trajectories of some dynamical system operation. In quite a few modern scientific modeling tasks, however, it turns out that reliable sequential data are rather difficult to gather, whereas out-of-order snapshots are much easier to obtain. Examples include the modeling of galaxies, chronic diseases such Alzheimer's, or certain biological processes. Existing methods for learning dynamic model from non-sequence data are mostly based on Expectation-Maximization, which involves non-convex optimization and is thus hard to analyze. Inspired by recent advances in spectral learning methods, we propose to study this problem from a different perspective: moment matching and spectral decomposition. Under that framework, we identify reasonable assumptions on the generative process of non-sequence data, and propose learning algorithms based on the tensor decomposition method \cite{anandkumar2012tensor} to \textit{provably} recover first-order Markov models and hidden Markov models. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first formal guarantee on learning from non-sequence data. Preliminary simulation results confirm our theoretical findings.

Vector Auto-regressive models (VAR) are useful tools for analyzing time series data. In quite a few modern time series modelling tasks, the collection of reliable time series turns out to be a major challenge, either due to the slow progression of the dynamic process of interest, or inaccessibility of repetitive measurements of the same dynamic process over time. In those situations, however, we observe that it is often easier to collect a large amount of non-sequence samples, or snapshots of the dynamic process of interest. In this work, we assume a small amount of time series data are available, and propose methods to incorporate non-sequence data into penalized least-square estimation of VAR models. We consider non-sequence data as samples drawn from the stationary distribution of the underlying VAR model, and devise a novel penalization scheme based on the discrete-time Lyapunov equation concerning the covariance of the stationary distribution. Experiments on synthetic and video data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Real-world relational data are seldom stationary, yet traditional collaborative filtering algorithms generally rely on this assumption. Motivated by our sales prediction problem, we propose a factor-based algorithm that is able to take time into account. By introducing additional factors for time, we formalize this problem as a tensor factorization with a special constraint on the time dimension. Further, we provide a fully Bayesian treatment to avoid tuning parameters and achieve automatic model complexity control. To learn the model we develop an efficient sampling procedure that is capable of analyzing large-scale data sets. This new algorithm, called Bayesian Probabilistic Tensor Factorization (BPTF), is evaluated on several real-world problems including sales prediction and movie recommendation. Empirical results demonstrate the superiority of our temporal model.

Virtually all methods of learning dynamic systems from data start from the same basic assumption: that the learning algorithm will be provided with a sequence, or trajectory, of data generated from the dynamic system. In this paper we consider the case where the data is not sequenced. The learning algorithm is presented a set of data points from the system's operation but with no temporal ordering. The data are simply drawn as individual disconnected points.

This paper proposes new approaches to rank individuals from their group competition results. Many real-world problems are of this type. For example, ranking players from team games is important in some sports. We propose an exponential model to solve such problems. To estimate individual rankings through the proposed model we introduce two convex minimization formulas with easy and efficient solution procedures. Experiments on real bridge records and multi-class classification demonstrate the viability of the proposed model.

The Bradley-Terry model for obtaining individual skill from paired comparisons has been popular in many areas. In machine learning, this model is related to multi-class probability estimates by coupling all pairwise classification results. Error correcting output codes (ECOC) are a general framework to decompose a multi-class problem to several binary problems. To obtain probability estimates under this framework, this paper introduces a generalized Bradley-Terry model in which paired individual comparisons are extended to paired team comparisons. We propose a simple algorithm with convergence proofs to solve the model and obtain individual skill. Experiments on synthetic and re al data demonstrate that the algorithm is useful for obtaining multi-class probability estimates. Moreover, we discuss four extensions of the proposed model: 1) weighted individual skill, 2) home-field advantage, 3) ties, and 4) comparisons with more than two teams.

The Bradley-Terry model for paired comparison has been popular in many areas. We propose a generalized version in which paired individual comparisons are extended to paired team comparisons. We introduce a simple algorithm with convergence proofs to solve the model and obtain individual skill. A useful application to multi-class probability estimates using error-correcting codes is demonstrated.