This paper outlines the major components and function of the technologically integrated oncosimulator developed primarily within the Advancing Clinico Genomic Trials on Cancer (ACGT) project. The Oncosimulator is defined as an information technology system simulating in vivo tumor response to therapeutic modalities within the clinical trial context. Chemotherapy in the neoadjuvant setting, according to two real clinical trials concerning nephroblastoma and breast cancer, has been considered. The spatiotemporal simulation module embedded in the Oncosimulator is based on the multiscale, predominantly top-down, discrete entity-discrete event cancer simulation technique developed by the In Silico Oncology Group, National Technical University of Athens. The technology modules include multiscale data handling, image processing, invocation of code execution via a spreadsheet-inspired environment portal, execution of the code on the grid, and the visualization of the predictions. A refining scenario for the eventual coupling of the oncosimulator with immunological models is also presented. Parameter values have been adapted to multiscale clinical trial data in a consistent way, thus supporting the predictive potential of the oncosimulator. Indicative results demonstrating various aspects of the clinical adaptation and validation process are presented. Completion of these processes is expected to pave the way for the clinical translation of the system.

BACKGROUND: Traditional strategies for selecting variables in high dimensional classification problems aim to find sets of maximally relevant variables able to explain the target variations. If these techniques may be effective in generalization accuracy they often do not reveal direct causes. The latter is essentially related to the fact that high correlation (or relevance) does not imply causation. In this study, we show how to efficiently incorporate causal information into gene selection by moving from a single-input single-output to a multiple-input multiple-output setting. RESULTS: We show in synthetic case study that a better prioritization of causal variables can be obtained by considering a relevance score which incorporates a causal term. In addition we show, in a meta-analysis study of six publicly available breast cancer microarray datasets, that the improvement occurs also in terms of accuracy. The biological interpretation of the results confirms the potential of a causal approach to gene selection. CONCLUSIONS: Integrating causal information into gene selection algorithms is effective both in terms of prediction accuracy and biological interpretation.

BACKGROUND: Genome scale expression profiling of human tumor samples is likely to yield improved cancer treatment decisions. However, identification of clinically predictive or prognostic classifiers can be challenging when a large number of genes are measured in a small number of tumors. RESULTS: We describe an unsupervised method to extract robust, consistent metagenes from multiple analogous data sets. We applied this method to expression profiles from five "double negative breast cancer" (DNBC) (not expressing ESR1 or HER2) cohorts and derived four metagenes. We assessed these metagenes in four similar but independent cohorts and found strong associations between three of the metagenes and agent-specific response to neoadjuvant therapy. Furthermore, we applied the method to ovarian and early stage lung cancer, two tumor types that lack reliable predictors of outcome, and found that the metagenes yield predictors of survival for both. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that the use of multiple data sets to derive potential biomarkers can filter out data set-specific noise and can increase the efficiency in identifying clinically accurate biomarkers.

The potential of cancer multilevel modeling has been particularly emphasized over the past years. Integration of multiscale experimental and clinical information pertaining to cancer via advanced computer models seems to considerably accelerate optimization of cancer treatment in the patient individualized context. However, a sine qua non prerequisite for such models to reach clinical practice is to be thoroughly tested through clinical trials for validation and optimization purposes. This is one of the major goals of the European Commission funded ldquoadvancing clinico-genomic trials on cancerrdquo (ACGT) project. This paper presents a discrete state based, four dimensional, multiscale tumor dynamics model that has been specially developed by the in silico oncology group in order to mimick the trial of principle (TOP) clinical trial concerning breast cancer treated with epirubicin. The TOP trial constitutes one of the ACGT clinical trials. A substantial part of the model can address other tumor types as well. The actual pseudoanonymized imaging, histopathological, molecular and clinical data of the patient are exploited. Special emphasis is put on the effect of cancer stem/clonogenic, progenitor, differentiated and dead cells, the cell category transition rates and the cell category relative populations within the tumor from the treatment baseline onwards. The importance of adaptation of the cell category relative populations to the cell category transition rates for free tumor growth is revealed and the concept of a pertinent nomogram is introduced. A method which ensures adaptation of these two sets of entities at the beginning of the simulation execution is proposed and subsequently successfully applied. Convergence and code checking issues are addressed. Indicative parametric/sensitivity studies are presented along with specific numerical findings. The modelpsilas behavior substantiates its potential to serve as the basis of a treatment optimization system following an eventually succesful completion of the clinical validation and optimization process.

MOTIVATION: Survival prediction of breast cancer (BC) patients independently of treatment, also known as prognostication, is a complex task since clinically similar breast tumors, in addition to be molecularly heterogeneous, may exhibit different clinical outcomes. In recent years, the analysis of gene expression profiles by means of sophisticated data mining tools emerged as a promising technology to bring additional insights into BC biology and to improve the quality of prognostication. The aim of this work is to assess quantitatively the accuracy of prediction obtained with state-of-the-art data analysis techniques for BC microarray data through an independent and thorough framework. RESULTS: Due to the large number of variables, the reduced amount of samples and the high degree of noise, complex prediction methods are highly exposed to performance degradation despite the use of cross-validation techniques. Our analysis shows that the most complex methods are not significantly better than the simplest one, a univariate model relying on a single proliferation gene. This result suggests that proliferation might be the most relevant biological process for BC prognostication and that the loss of interpretability deriving from the use of overcomplex methods may be not sufficiently counterbalanced by an improvement of the quality of prediction. AVAILABILITY: The comparison study is implemented in an R package called survcomp and is available from http://www.ulb.ac.be/di/map/bhaibeka/software/survcomp/.

This paper reports on original results of the Advancing Clinico-Genomic Trials on Cancer integrated project focusing on the design and development of a European biomedical grid infrastructure in support of multicentric, postgenomic clinical trials (CTs) on cancer. Postgenomic CTs use multilevel clinical and genomic data and advanced computational analysis and visualization tools to test hypothesis in trying to identify the molecular reasons for a disease and the stratification of patients in terms of treatment. This paper provides a presentation of the needs of users involved in postgenomic CTs, and presents such needs in the form of scenarios, which drive the requirements engineering phase of the project. Subsequently, the initial architecture specified by the project is presented, and its services are classified and discussed. A key set of such services are those used for wrapping heterogeneous clinical trial management systems and other public biological databases. Also, the main technological challenge, i.e. the design and development of semantically rich grid services is discussed. In achieving such an objective, extensive use of ontologies and metadata are required. The Master Ontology on Cancer, developed by the project, is presented, and our approach to develop the required metadata registries, which provide semantically rich information about available data and computational services, is provided. Finally, a short discussion of the work lying ahead is included.