Cross-machine remaining useful life (RUL) prediction via transfer learning often deteriorates in few-shot scenarios due to insufficient source data and severe distribution divergence. These challenges amplify degradation uncertainty and significantly reduce prognostic reliability. This fundamentally raises an open problem: what information is critical in few-shot transfer learning, and how can the information be exploited? To address this, we propose a deep wavelet scattering regression adaptation method that exploits stage-specific frequency information. A novel multi-stage time-frequency attention (MSTFA) mechanism is designed within a domain-adversarial network to extract physically-aware feature representations. Specifically, MSTFA utilizes a wavelet scattering network to identify the most critical frequency bands corresponding to distinct degradation stages. Domain-invariant representations are then obtained via adversarial training, while a Bayesian regressor is incorporated to quantify uncertainty and provide confidence intervals. The generalization error upper bound of the proposed method is also derived, which theoretically reveals the reason why the MSTFA mechanism works. Experiments are conducted on two bearing datasets and a real-world width-sizing machine bearing dataset from a large steel factory in China. The results reveal the quantitative importance of frequency information across different degradation stages, and prove that leveraging such information effectively improves the prognostic accuracy and reliability in few-shot scenarios, thus offering a feasible solution for industrial applications.

We study how multi-head softmax attention models are trained to perform in-context learning on linear data. Through extensive empirical experiments and rigorous theoretical analysis, we demystify the emergence of elegant attention patterns: a diagonal and homogeneous pattern in the key-query weights, and a last-entry-only and zero-sum pattern in the output-value weights. Remarkably, these patterns consistently appear from gradient-based training starting from random initialization. Our analysis reveals that such emergent structures enable multi-head attention to approximately implement a debiased gradient descent predictor --- one that outperforms single-head attention and nearly achieves Bayesian optimality up to proportional factor. We also extend our study to scenarios with anisotropic covariates and multi-task linear regression. Our results reveal that in-context learning ability emerges from the trained transformer as an aggregated effect of its architecture and the underlying data distribution, paving the way for deeper understanding and broader applications of in-context learning.

We study infinite-horizon average-reward Markov decision processes (AMDPs) in the context of general function approximation. Specifically, we propose a novel algorithmic framework named Local-fitted Optimization with OPtimism (LOOP), which incorporates both model-based and value-based incarnations. In particular, LOOP features a novel construction of confidence sets and a low-switching policy updating scheme, which are tailored to the average-reward and function approximation setting. Moreover, for AMDPs, we propose a novel complexity measure --- average-reward generalized eluder coefficient (AGEC) --- which captures the challenge of exploration in AMDPs with general function approximation. Such a complexity measure encompasses almost all previously known tractable AMDP models, such as linear AMDPs and linear mixture AMDPs, and also includes newly identified cases such as kernel AMDPs and AMDPs with Bellman eluder dimensions. Using AGEC, we prove that LOOP achieves a sublinear $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\mathrm{poly}(d, \mathrm{sp}(V^*)) \sqrt{T\beta} )$ regret, where $d$ and $\beta$ correspond to AGEC and log-covering number of the hypothesis class respectively, $\mathrm{sp}(V^*)$ is the span of the optimal state bias function, $T$ denotes the number of steps, and $\tilde{\mathcal{O}} (\cdot) $ omits logarithmic factors. When specialized to concrete AMDP models, our regret bounds are comparable to those established by the existing algorithms designed specifically for these special cases. To the best of our knowledge, this paper presents the first comprehensive theoretical framework capable of handling nearly all AMDPs.

In this work, from a theoretical lens, we aim to understand why large language model (LLM) empowered agents are able to solve decision-making problems in the physical world. To this end, consider a hierarchical reinforcement learning (RL) model where the LLM Planner and the Actor perform high-level task planning and low-level execution, respectively. Under this model, the LLM Planner navigates a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) by iteratively generating language-based subgoals via prompting. Under proper assumptions on the pretraining data, we prove that the pretrained LLM Planner effectively performs Bayesian aggregated imitation learning (BAIL) through in-context learning. Additionally, we highlight the necessity for exploration beyond the subgoals derived from BAIL by proving that naively executing the subgoals returned by LLM leads to a linear regret. As a remedy, we introduce an $\epsilon$-greedy exploration strategy to BAIL, which is proven to incur sublinear regret when the pretraining error is small. Finally, we extend our theoretical framework to include scenarios where the LLM Planner serves as a world model for inferring the transition model of the environment and to multi-agent settings, enabling coordination among multiple Actors.