Estimating treatment effects over time holds significance in various domains, including precision medicine, epidemiology, economy, and marketing. This paper introduces a unique approach to counterfactual regression over time, emphasizing long-term predictions. Distinguishing itself from existing models like Causal Transformer, our approach highlights the efficacy of employing RNNs for long-term forecasting, complemented by Contrastive Predictive Coding (CPC) and Information Maximization (InfoMax). Emphasizing efficiency, we avoid the need for computationally expensive transformers. Leveraging CPC, our method captures long-term dependencies within time-varying confounders. Notably, recent models have disregarded the importance of invertible representation, compromising identification assumptions. To remedy this, we employ the InfoMax principle, maximizing a lower bound of mutual information between sequence data and its representation. Our method achieves state-of-the-art counterfactual estimation results using both synthetic and real-world data, marking the pioneering incorporation of Contrastive Predictive Encoding in causal inference.

We tackle the Few-Shot Open-Set Recognition (FSOSR) problem, i.e. classifying instances among a set of classes for which we only have a few labeled samples, while simultaneously detecting instances that do not belong to any known class. We explore the popular transductive setting, which leverages the unlabelled query instances at inference. Motivated by the observation that existing transductive methods perform poorly in open-set scenarios, we propose a generalization of the maximum likelihood principle, in which latent scores down-weighing the influence of potential outliers are introduced alongside the usual parametric model. Our formulation embeds supervision constraints from the support set and additional penalties discouraging overconfident predictions on the query set. We proceed with a block-coordinate descent, with the latent scores and parametric model co-optimized alternately, thereby benefiting from each other. We call our resulting formulation Open-Set Likelihood Optimization (OSLO). OSLO is interpretable and fully modular; it can be applied on top of any pre-trained model seamlessly. Through extensive experiments, we show that our method surpasses existing inductive and transductive methods on both aspects of open-set recognition, namely inlier classification and outlier detection. Code is available at https://github.com/ebennequin/few-shot-open-set.

Pierre Colombo, Victor Pellegrain, Malik Boudiaf, Myriam Tami, Victor Storchan, Ismail Ayed, Pablo Piantanida. Proceedings of the 2023 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing. 2023.

Additive Noise Models (ANMs) are a common model class for causal discovery from observational data. Due to a lack of real-world data for which an underlying ANM is known, ANMs with randomly sampled parameters are commonly used to simulate data for the evaluation of causal discovery algorithms. While some parameters may be fixed by explicit assumptions, fully specifying an ANM requires choosing all parameters. Reisach et al. (2021) show that, for many ANM parameter choices, sorting the variables by increasing variance yields an ordering close to a causal order and introduce ‘var-sortability’ to quantify this alignment. Since increasing variances may be unrealistic and cannot be exploited when data scales are arbitrary, ANM data are often rescaled to unit variance in causal discovery benchmarking. We show that synthetic ANM data are characterized by another pattern that is scale-invariant and thus persists even after standardization: the explainable fraction of a variable’s variance, as captured by the coefficient of determination $R^2$, tends to increase along the causal order. The result is high ‘$R^2$-sortability’, meaning that sorting the variables by increasing $R^2$ yields an ordering close to a causal order. We propose a computationally efficient baseline algorithm termed ‘$R^2$-SortnRegress’ that exploits high $R^2$-sortability and that can match and exceed the performance of established causal discovery algorithms. We show analytically that sufficiently high edge weights lead to a relative decrease of the noise contributions along causal chains, resulting in increasingly deterministic relationships and high $R^2$. We characterize $R^2$-sortability on synthetic data with different simulation parameters and find high values in common settings. Our findings reveal high $R^2$-sortability as an assumption about the data generating process relevant to causal discovery and implicit in many ANM sampling schemes. It should be made explicit, as its prevalence in real-world data is an open question. For causal discovery benchmarking, we provide implementations of $R^2$-sortability, the $R^2$-SortnRegress algorithm, and ANM simulation procedures in our library CausalDisco at https://causaldisco.github.io/CausalDisco/.

Domain Invariant Representations (IR) has improved drastically the transferability of representations from a labelled source domain to a new and unlabelled target domain. Unsupervised Domain Adaptation (UDA) in presence of label shift remains an open problem. To this purpose, we present a bound of the target risk which incorporates both weights and invariant representations. Our theoretical analysis highlights the role of inductive bias in aligning distributions across domains. We illustrate it on standard benchmarks by proposing a new learning procedure for UDA. We observed empirically that weak inductive bias makes adaptation robust to label shift. The elaboration of stronger inductive bias is a promising direction for new UDA algorithms.

In this paper, we present a novel cross-consistency based semi-supervised approach for semantic segmentation. Consistency training has proven to be a powerful semi-supervised learning framework for leveraging unlabeled data under the cluster assumption, in which the decision boundary should lie in low-density regions. In this work, we first observe that for semantic segmentation, the low-density regions are more apparent within the hidden representations than within the inputs. We thus propose cross-consistency training, where an invariance of the predictions is enforced over different perturbations applied to the outputs of the encoder. Concretely, a shared encoder and a main decoder are trained in a supervised manner using the available labeled examples. To leverage the unlabeled examples, we enforce a consistency between the main decoder predictions and those of the auxiliary decoders, taking as inputs different perturbed versions of the encoder's output, and consequently, improving the encoder's representations. The proposed method is simple and can easily be extended to use additional training signal, such as image-level labels or pixel-level labels across different domains. We perform an ablation study to tease apart the effectiveness of each component, and conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art results in several datasets.

We propose here a generalization of regression trees, referred to as Probabilistic Regression (PR) trees, that adapt to the smoothness of the prediction function relating input and output variables while preserving the interpretability of the prediction and being robust to noise. In PR trees, an observation is associated to all regions of a tree through a probability distribution that reflects how far the observation is to a region. We show that such trees are consistent, meaning that their error tends to 0 when the sample size tends to infinity, a property that has not been established for similar, previous proposals as Soft trees and Smooth Transition Regression trees. We further explain how PR trees can be used in different ensemble methods, namely Random Forests and Gradient Boosted Trees. Lastly, we assess their performance through extensive experiments that illustrate their benefits in terms of performance, interpretability and robustness to noise.