Computational multi-scale pandemic modelling remains a major and timely challenge. Here we identify specific requirements for a new class of models simulating pandemics across three scales: (1) pathogen evolution, often punctuated by the rapid emergence of new variants, (2) human interactions within a heterogeneous population, and (3) public health responses which constrain individual actions to control the disease transmission. We then present a pandemic modelling framework satisfying these requirements and capable of simulating feedback loops between dynamics unfolding at these different scales. The developed framework comprises a stochastic agent-based model of pandemic spread, coupled with a phylodynamic model that incorporates within-host pathogen evolution. It is validated with a case study, modelling the punctuated evolution of SARS-CoV-2, based on global and contemporary genomic surveillance data, which captures a large heterogeneous population. We demonstrate that the model replicates the essential features of the COVID-19 pandemic and virus evolution, while retaining computational tractability and scalability.

In this ansatz we consider theoretical constructions of RNA polymers into automata, a form of computational structure. The bases for transitions in our automata are plausible RNA enzymes that may perform ligation or cleavage. Limited to these operations, we construct RNA automata of increasing complexity; from the Finite Automaton (RNA-FA) to the Turing machine equivalent 2-stack PDA (RNA-2PDA) and the universal RNA-UPDA. For each automaton we show how the enzymatic reactions match the logical operations of the RNA automaton. A critical theme of the ansatz is the self-reference in RNA automata configurations that exploits the program-data duality but results in computational undecidability. We describe how computational undecidability is exemplified in the self-referential Liar paradox that places a boundary on a logical system, and by construction, any RNA automata. We argue that an expansion of the evolutionary space for RNA-2PDA automata can be interpreted as a hierarchical resolution of computational undecidability by a meta-system (akin to Turing's oracle), in a continual process analogous to Turing's ordinal logics and Post's extensible recursively generated logics. On this basis, we put forward the hypothesis that the resolution of undecidable configurations in RNA automata represent a novelty generation mechanism and propose avenues for future investigation of biological automata.

Modelling the emergence of foodborne pathogens is a crucial step in the prediction and prevention of disease outbreaks. Unfortunately, the mechanisms that drive the evolution of such continuously adapting pathogens remain poorly understood. Here, we combine molecular genotyping with network science and Bayesian inference to infer directed genotype networks-and trace the emergence and evolutionary paths-of Salmonella Typhimurium (STM) from nine years of Australian disease surveillance data. We construct networks where nodes represent STM strains and directed edges represent evolutionary steps, presenting evidence that the structural (i.e., network-based) features are relevant to understanding the functional (i.e., fitness-based) progression of co-evolving STM strains. This is argued by showing that outbreak severity, i.e., prevalence, correlates to: (i) the network path length to the most prevalent node (r = -0.613, N = 690); and (ii) the network connected-component size (r = 0.739). Moreover, we uncover distinct exploration-exploitation pathways in the genetic space of STM, including a strong evolutionary drive through a transition region. This is examined via the 6,897 distinct evolutionary paths in the directed network, where we observe a dominant 66% of these paths decrease in network centrality, whilst increasing in prevalence. Furthermore, 72.4% of all paths originate in the transition region, with 64% of those following the dominant direction. Further, we find that the length of an evolutionary path strongly correlates to its increase in prevalence (r = 0.497). Combined, these findings indicate that longer evolutionary paths result in genetically rare and virulent strains, which mostly evolve from a single transition point. Our results not only validate our widely-applicable approach for inferring directed genotype networks from data, but also provide a unique insight into the elusive functional and structural drivers of STM bacteria.

We develop and apply several novel methods quantifying dynamic multi-agent team interactions. These interactions are detected information-theoretically and captured in two ways: via (i) directed networks (interaction diagrams) representing significant coupled dynamics between pairs of agents, and (ii) state-space plots (coherence diagrams) showing coherent structures in Shannon information dynamics. This model-free analysis relates, on the one hand, the information transfer to responsiveness of the agents and the team, and, on the other hand, the information storage within the team to the team's rigidity and lack of tactical flexibility. The resultant interaction and coherence diagrams reveal implicit interactions, across teams, that may be spatially long-range. The analysis was verified with a statistically significant number of experiments (using simulated football games, produced during RoboCup 2D Simulation League matches), identifying the zones of the most intense competition, the extent and types of interactions, and the correlation between the strength of specific interactions and the results of the matches.

We survey state-of-the-art methods of information dynamics and briefly discuss some of the popular measures, exemplifying their use in different contexts, including cellular automata, swarming behavior, modular robotics, and random Boolean networks. Several possible principles that generalize the patterns observed in the examples are also suggested. These principles are aimed at providing thermodynamic interpretations of critical phenomena exhibited by many complex Artificial Life systems.

We analyze assortative mixing patterns of biological networks which are typically directed. We develop a theoretical background for analyzing mixing patterns in directed networks before applying them to specific biological networks. Two new quantities are introduced, namely the in-assortativity and the out-assortativity, which are shown to be useful in quantifying assortative mixing in directed networks. We also introduce the local (node level) assortativity quantities for in- and out-assortativity. Local assortativity profiles are the distributions of these local quantities over node degrees and can be used to analyze both canonical and real-world directed biological networks. Many biological networks, which have been previously classified as disassortative, are shown to be assortative with respect to these new measures. Finally, we demonstrate the use of local assortativity profiles in analyzing the functionalities of particular nodes and groups of nodes in real-world biological networks.

Introduction to the Special Issue on Complex Networks, Artificial Life journal.

Small-world networks have been one of the most influential concepts in complex systems science, partly due to their prevalence in naturally occurring networks. It is often suggested that this prevalence is due to an inherent capability to store and transfer information efficiently. We perform an ensemble investigation of the computational capabilities of small-world networks as compared to ordered and random topologies. To generate dynamic behavior for this experiment, we imbue the nodes in these networks with random Boolean functions. We find that the ordered phase of the dynamics (low activity in dynamics) and topologies with low randomness are dominated by information storage, while the chaotic phase (high activity in dynamics) and topologies with high randomness are dominated by information transfer. Information storage and information transfer are somewhat balanced (crossed over) near the small-world regime, providing quantitative evidence that small-world networks do indeed have a propensity to combine comparably large information storage and transfer capacity.

We study the order-chaos phase transition in random Boolean networks (RBNs), which have been used as models of gene regulatory networks. In particular we seek to characterize the phase diagram in information-theoretic terms, focusing on the effect of the control parameters (activity level and connectivity). Fisher information, which measures how much system dynamics can reveal about the control parameters, offers a natural interpretation of the phase diagram in RBNs. We report that this measure is maximized near the order-chaos phase transitions in RBNs, since this is the region where the system is most sensitive to its parameters. Furthermore, we use this study of RBNs to clarify the relationship between Shannon and Fisher information measures.

July 01 2009 Information and Self-Organization: A Macroscopic Approach to Complex Systems, (3rd enlarged ed.). H. Haken. (2006, Springer.) €79.95 (hardcover), 262 pages. ISBN: 978-3-540-33021-9 In Special Collection: CogNet Mikhail Prokopenko Mikhail Prokopenko * Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) Centre, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Locked bag 17, North Ryde NSW 1670, Australia. E-mail: [email protected] Search for other works by this author on: This Site Google Scholar Author and Article Information Mikhail Prokopenko * Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) Centre, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Locked bag 17, North Ryde NSW 1670, Australia. E-mail: [email protected] Online ISSN: 1530-9185 Print ISSN: 1064-5462 © 2009 Massachusetts Institute of Technology2009 Artificial Life (2009) 15 (3): 377–383. https://doi.org/10.1162/artl.2009.Prokopenko.B4 Cite Icon Cite Permissions Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Email Views Icon Views Article contents Figures & tables Video Audio Supplementary Data Peer Review Search Site Citation Mikhail Prokopenko; Information and Self-Organization: A Macroscopic Approach to Complex Systems, (3rd enlarged ed.). H. Haken. (2006, Springer.) €79.95 (hardcover), 262 pages. ISBN: 978-3-540-33021-9. Artif Life 2009; 15 (3): 377–383. doi: https://doi.org/10.1162/artl.2009.Prokopenko.B4 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Reference Manager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentAll JournalsArtificial Life Search Advanced Search This content is only available as a PDF. © 2009 Massachusetts Institute of Technology2009 Article PDF first page preview Close Modal You do not currently have access to this content.

We investigate the problem of identifying anomalies in monitoring critical gas concentrations using a sensor network in an underground coal mine. In this domain, one of the main problems is a provision of mine specific anomaly detection, with cyclical (moving) instead of flatline (static) alarm threshold levels. An additional practical difficulty in modelling a specific mine is the lack of fully labelled data of normal and abnormal situations. We present an approach addressing these difficulties based on echo state networks learning mine specific anomalies when only normal data is available. Echo state networks utilize incremental updates driven by new sensor readings, thus enabling a detection of anomalies at any time during the sensor network operation. We evaluate this approach against a benchmark -- Bayesian network based anomaly detection, and observe that the quality of the overall predictions is comparable to the benchmark. However, the echo state networks maintain the same level of predictive accuracy for data from multiple sources. Therefore, the ability of echo state networks to model dynamical systems make this approach more suitable for anomaly detection and predictions in sensor networks.

We consider a hierarchical multicellular sensing and communication network, embedded in an ageless aerospace vehicle that is expected to detect and react to multiple impacts and damage over a wide range of impact energies. In particular, we investigate self-organization of impact boundaries enclosing critically damaged areas, and impact networks connecting remote cells that have detected noncritical impacts. Each level of the hierarchy is shown to have distinct higher-order emergent properties, desirable in self-monitoring and self-repairing vehicles. In addition, cells and communication messages are shown to need memory (hysteresis) in order to retain desirable emergent behavior within and between various hierarchical levels. Spatiotemporal robustness of self-organizing hierarchies is quantitatively measured with graph-theoretic and information-theoretic techniques, such as the Shannon entropy. This allows us to clearly identify phase transitions separating chaotic dynamics from ordered and robust patterns.