Recommender systems trained in a continuous learning fashion are plagued by the feedback loop problem, also known as algorithmic bias. This causes a newly trained model to act greedily and favor items that have already been engaged by users. This behavior is particularly harmful in personalised ads recommendations, as it can also cause new campaigns to remain unexplored. Exploration aims to address this limitation by providing new information about the environment, which encompasses user preference, and can lead to higher long-term reward. In this work, we formulate a display advertising recommender as a contextual bandit and implement exploration techniques that require sampling from the posterior distribution of click-through-rates in a computationally tractable manner. Traditional large-scale deep learning models do not provide uncertainty estimates by default. We approximate these uncertainty measurements of the predictions by employing a bootstrapped model with multiple heads and dropout units. We benchmark a number of different models in an offline simulation environment using a publicly available dataset of user-ads engagements. We test our proposed deep Bayesian bandits algorithm in the offline simulation and online AB setting with large-scale production traffic, where we demonstrate a positive gain of our exploration model.

How humans make repeated choices among options with imperfectly known reward outcomes is an important problem in psychology and neuroscience. This is often studied using multi-armed bandits, which is also frequently studied in machine learning. We present data from a human stationary bandit experiment, in which we vary the average abundance and variability of reward availability (mean and variance of reward rate distributions). Surprisingly, we find subjects significantly underestimate prior mean of reward rates -- based on their self-report, at the end of a game, on their reward expectation of non-chosen arms. Previously, human learning in the bandit task was found to be well captured by a Bayesian ideal learning model, the Dynamic Belief Model (DBM), albeit under an incorrect generative assumption of the temporal structure - humans assume reward rates can change over time even though they are actually fixed. We find that the "pessimism bias" in the bandit task is well captured by the prior mean of DBM when fitted to human choices; but it is poorly captured by the prior mean of the Fixed Belief Model (FBM), an alternative Bayesian model that (correctly) assumes reward rates to be constants. This pessimism bias is also incompletely captured by a simple reinforcement learning model (RL) commonly used in neuroscience and psychology, in terms of fitted initial Q-values. While it seems sub-optimal, and thus mysterious, that humans have an underestimated prior reward expectation, our simulations show that an underestimated prior mean helps to maximize long-term gain, if the observer assumes volatility when reward rates are stable and utilizes a softmax decision policy instead of the optimal one (obtainable by dynamic programming). This raises the intriguing possibility that the brain underestimates reward rates to compensate for the incorrect non-stationarity assumption in the generative model and a simplified decision policy.