Subseasonal forecasting of the weather two to six weeks in advance is critical for resource allocation and climate adaptation but poses many challenges for the forecasting community. At this forecast horizon, physics-based dynamical models have limited skill, and the targets for prediction depend in a complex manner on both local weather variables and global climate variables. Recently, machine learning methods have shown promise in advancing the state of the art but only at the cost of complex data curation, integrating expert knowledge with aggregation across multiple relevant data sources, file formats, and temporal and spatial resolutions.To streamline this process and accelerate future development, we introduce SubseasonalClimateUSA, a curated dataset for training and benchmarking subseasonal forecasting models in the United States. We use this dataset to benchmark a diverse suite of models, including operational dynamical models, classical meteorological baselines, and ten state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning-based methods from the literature. Overall, our benchmarks suggest simple and effective ways to extend the accuracy of current operational models. SubseasonalClimateUSA is regularly updated and accessible via the https://github.com/microsoft/subseasonal_data/ Python package.

As zero-knowledge proofs gain increasing adoption, the cryptography community has designed domain-specific languages (DSLs) that facilitate the construction of zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs). Many of these DSLs, such as Circom, facilitate the construction of arithmetic circuits, which are essentially polynomial equations over a finite field. In particular, given a program in a zero-knowledge proof DSL, the compiler automatically produces the corresponding arithmetic circuit. However, a common and serious problem is that the generated circuit may be underconstrained, either due to a bug in the program or a bug in the compiler itself. Underconstrained circuits admit multiple witnesses for a given input, so a malicious party can generate bogus witnesses, thereby causing the verifier to accept a proof that it should not. Because of the increasing prevalence of such arithmetic circuits in blockchain applications, several million dollars worth of cryptocurrency have been stolen due to underconstrained arithmetic circuits. Motivated by this problem, we propose a new technique for finding ZKP bugs caused by underconstrained polynomial equations over finite fields. Our method performs semantic reasoning over the finite field equations generated by the compiler to prove whether or not each signal is uniquely determined by the input. Our proposed approach combines SMT solving with lightweight uniqueness inference to effectively reason about underconstrained circuits. We have implemented our proposed approach in a tool called QED 2 and evaluate it on 163 Circom circuits. Our evaluation shows that QED 2 can successfully solve 70% of these benchmarks, meaning that it either verifies the uniqueness of the output signals or finds a pair of witnesses that demonstrate non-uniqueness of the circuit. Furthermore, QED 2 has found 8 previously unknown vulnerabilities in widely-used circuits.