Rainfall forecasting presents a dual challenge: extreme zero inflation, where dry days dominate and obscure meaningful precipitation patterns, and pronounced nonstationarity, where climate dynamics evolve across time and regimes. We propose the Deep Extreme Transformer (DET), a principled architecture that integrates statistical distribution mod- eling with neural sequence learning to address both issues simultaneously. DET augments the Transformer with a Tweedie distribution output head that unifies discrete zeros and continuous intensities, a fixed shared-weight mech- anism that emphasizes rare but critical events in both attention and loss computation, and a Gaussian perturbation strat- egy that enhances learning stability without violating physical constraints. DET further incorporates nonstationary attention to adapt to evolving rainfall regimes. Extensive experiments on multi-decadal South Australian climate data demonstrate that DET consistently outperforms existing deep learning and statistical models across forecasting horizons. Our method provides an effective and generalizable framework for zero- inflated, shift-prone time series, bridging statistical rigor with deep temporal modeling in a unified and scalable design.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often produce fluent but factually incorrect responses, a phenomenon known as hallucination. Abstention, where the model chooses not to answer and instead outputs phrases such as "I don't know", is a common safeguard. However, existing abstention methods typically rely on post-generation signals, such as generation variations or feedback, which limits their ability to prevent unreliable responses in advance. In this paper, we introduce Aspect-Based Causal Abstention (ABCA), a new framework that enables early abstention by analysing the internal diversity of LLM knowledge through causal inference. This diversity reflects the multifaceted nature of parametric knowledge acquired from various sources, representing diverse aspects such as disciplines, legal contexts, or temporal frames. ABCA estimates causal effects conditioned on these aspects to assess the reliability of knowledge relevant to a given query. Based on these estimates, we enable two types of abstention: Type-1, where aspect effects are inconsistent (knowledge conflict), and Type-2, where aspect effects consistently support abstention (knowledge insufficiency). Experiments on standard benchmarks demonstrate that ABCA improves abstention reliability, achieves state-of-the-art performance, and enhances the interpretability of abstention decisions.

Machine unlearning aims to eliminate the influence of specific data from trained models to ensure privacy compliance. However, most existing methods assume full access to the original training dataset, which is often impractical. We address a more realistic yet challenging setting: few-shot zero-glance, where only a small subset of the retained data is available and the forget set is entirely inaccessible. We introduce GFOES, a novel framework comprising a Generative Feedback Network (GFN) and a two-phase fine-tuning procedure. GFN synthesises Optimal Erasure Samples (OES), which induce high loss on target classes, enabling the model to forget class-specific knowledge without access to the original forget data, while preserving performance on retained classes. The two-phase fine-tuning procedure enables aggressive forgetting in the first phase, followed by utility restoration in the second. Experiments on three image classification datasets demonstrate that GFOES achieves effective forgetting at both logit and representation levels, while maintaining strong performance using only 5% of the original data. Our framework offers a practical and scalable solution for privacy-preserving machine learning under data-constrained conditions.

Large-language-model (LLM) based user simulation is increasingly adopted for evaluating search engines, recommender systems, and retrieval-augmented generation pipelines, yet most simulators remain opaque: it is difficult to determine why a simulated user made a particular choice or whether that choice is consistent with the intended user profile. Compounding this, recent research shows that LLMs can produce biased or discriminatory responses depending on user background characteristics such as language, education level, and cultural context, raising concerns about the equitable treatment of minority and disadvantaged groups. This half-day, in-person tutorial introduces a proposed design-and-audit framework that treats a user simulator as a verifiable engineering artefact composed of seven auditable components---structured Persona, task-aware Contract, matched human-vs-agent Execution, auditable Trace, persona-aligned Verification, structured Feedback, and a Refinement loop that updates personas and contracts. Through two hands-on mini-labs on recommendation-list evaluation and search-query formulation, participants will inspect simulator behaviour end-to-end, distinguish diagnostic discrepancy analysis from statistical validation, and apply checks for fidelity, credibility, and demographic bias. The tutorial targets information retrieval and recommender systems researchers and practitioners interested in user behaviour simulation and responsible AI.

Large Language Model (LLM)-based agent simulation has emerged as a promising approach to meet the increasing demand for real-time and rigorous evaluation in modern recommender systems. A typical LLM-driven simulation framework comprises three essential components: the profile module, memory module, and action module. However, existing studies have primarily concentrated on enhancing the memory and action modules, with limited attention to profile generation, which plays a pivotal role in ensuring realistic agent behaviours and aligning simulated interactions with real user dynamics. Moreover, the scarcity of datasets specifically designed for recommendation simulations has led to heavy reliance on manually crafted profiles, significantly limiting the scalability and generalisability of simulation frameworks across different datasets. To address these challenges, this work proposes an Automated Profile Generation Framework for Recommendation Simulation, APG4RecSim, that constructs realistic, coherent, and robust user profiles with minimal supervision. Extensive experiments on three benchmark datasets demonstrate that APG4RecSim achieves the best overall performance on discrimination, ranking, and rating tasks, improving ranking quality by up to 7% in nDCG@10 and reducing rating distribution divergence by 8% in JSD compared to existing profile-generation baselines. Beyond overall performance gains, our results show that APG4RecSim produces profiles that are resilient to popularity- and position-induced biases and maintain stable performance across datasets and different LLMs.

Large language models (LLMs) are widely used for question answering (QA) but can generate biased or stereotype-driven answers due to demographic associations learned during pre-training. Existing mitigation strategies often rely on model access or fine-tuning, which limits their applicability to closed-source LLMs. We propose a Causal Front Door Prompting framework (CFDP) that reduces demographic influence by intervening on the chain of thought reasoning, which is treated as an observable mediator. CFDP samples and clusters multiple reasoning traces and estimates answer probabilities through weighted aggregation. Experiments on two widely used bias-sensitive QA benchmarks, BBQ and Stereotype, across major LLMs show that CFDP consistently improves fairness metrics without sacrificing QA accuracy. Ablation and sensitivity analyses confirm the value of each component, indicating that causal intervention on reasoning provides an effective and practical approach for bias mitigation in LLM-based QA.

Graph Transformers (GTs) are increasingly applied to social network analysis, yet their deployment is often constrained by fairness concerns. This issue is particularly critical in incomplete social networks, where sensitive attributes are frequently missing due to privacy and ethical restrictions. Existing solutions commonly generate these incomplete attributes, which may introduce additional biases and further compromise user privacy. To address this challenge, FairGE (Fair Graph Encoding) is introduced as a fairness-aware framework for GTs in incomplete social networks. Instead of generating sensitive attributes, FairGE encodes fairness directly through spectral graph theory. By leveraging the principal eigenvector to represent structural information and padding incomplete sensitive attributes with zeros to maintain independence, FairGE ensures fairness without data reconstruction. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that the method suppresses the influence of non-principal spectral components, thereby enhancing fairness. Extensive experiments on seven real-world social network datasets confirm that FairGE achieves at least a 16% improvement in both statistical parity and equality of opportunity compared with state-of-the-art baselines.

Knowledge Graph Retrieval-Augmented Generation (KG-RAG) extends the RAG paradigm by incorporating structured knowledge from knowledge graphs, enabling Large Language Models (LLMs) to perform more precise and explainable reasoning. While KG-RAG improves factual accuracy in complex tasks, existing KG-RAG models are often severely overconfident, producing high-confidence predictions even when retrieved sub-graphs are incomplete or unreliable, which raises concerns for deployment in high-stakes domains. To address this issue, we propose Ca2KG, a Causality-aware Calibration framework for KG-RAG. Ca2KG integrates counterfactual prompting, which exposes retrieval-dependent uncertainties in knowledge quality and reasoning reliability, with a panel-based re-scoring mechanism that stabilises predictions across interventions. Extensive experiments on two complex QA datasets demonstrate that Ca2KG consistently improves calibration while maintaining or even enhancing predictive accuracy. The source code can be found at~ https://aisuko.github.io/ca2kg/.

Cognitive diagnostics in the Web-based Intelligent Education System (WIES) aims to assess students' mastery of knowledge concepts from heterogeneous, noisy interactions. Recent work has tried to utilize Large Language Models (LLMs) for cognitive diagnosis, yet LLMs struggle with structured data and are prone to noise-induced misjudgments. Specially, WIES's open environment continuously attracts new students and produces vast amounts of response logs, exacerbating the data imbalance and noise issues inherent in traditional educational systems. To address these challenges, we propose DLLM, a Diffusion-based LLM framework for noise-robust cognitive diagnosis. DLLM first constructs independent subgraphs based on response correctness, then applies relation augmentation alignment module to mitigate data imbalance. The two subgraph representations are then fused and aligned with LLM-derived, semantically augmented representations. Importantly, before each alignment step, DLLM employs a two-stage denoising diffusion module to eliminate intrinsic noise while assisting structural representation alignment. Specifically, unconditional denoising diffusion first removes erroneous information, followed by conditional denoising diffusion based on graph signal to eliminate misleading information. Finally, the noise-robust representation that integrates semantic knowledge and structural information is fed into existing cognitive diagnosis models for prediction. Experimental results on three publicly available web-based educational platform datasets demonstrate that our DLLM achieves optimal predictive performance across varying noise levels, which demonstrates that DLLM achieves noise robustness while effectively leveraging semantic knowledge from LLM.

Implicit sentiment analysis (ISA) aims to infer sentiment that is implied rather than explicitly stated, requiring models to perform deeper reasoning over subtle contextual cues. While recent prompting-based methods using large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in ISA, they often rely on majority voting over chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning paths without evaluating their causal validity, making them susceptible to internal biases and spurious correlations. To address this challenge, we propose CAPITAL, a causal prompting framework that incorporates front-door adjustment into CoT reasoning. CAPITAL decomposes the overall causal effect into two components: the influence of the input prompt on the reasoning chains, and the impact of those chains on the final output. These components are estimated using encoder-based clustering and the NWGM approximation, with a contrastive learning objective used to better align the encoder’s representation with the LLM’s reasoning space. Experiments on benchmark ISA datasets with three LLMs demonstrate that CAPITAL consistently outperforms strong prompting baselines in both accuracy and robustness, particularly under adversarial conditions. This work offers a principled approach to integrating causal inference into LLM prompting and highlights its benefits for bias-aware sentiment reasoning. The source code and case study are available at:https://github.com/whZ62/CAPITAL.

Senqi Yang, Dongyu Zhang, Jing Ren, Ziqi Xu, Xiuzhen Zhang, Yiliao Song, Hongfei Lin, Feng Xia. Proceedings of the 63rd Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers). 2025.

As machine learning systems become increasingly integrated into high-stakes decision-making processes, ensuring fairness in algorithmic outcomes has become a critical concern. Methods to mitigate bias typically fall into three categories: pre-processing, in-processing, and post-processing. While significant attention has been devoted to the latter two, pre-processing methods, which operate at the data level and offer advantages such as model-agnosticism and improved privacy compliance, have received comparatively less focus and lack standardised evaluation tools. In this work, we introduce FairPrep, an extensible and modular benchmarking framework designed to evaluate fairness-aware pre-processing techniques on tabular datasets. Built on the AIF360 platform, FairPrep allows seamless integration of datasets, fairness interventions, and predictive models. It features a batch-processing interface that enables efficient experimentation and automatic reporting of fairness and utility metrics. By offering standardised pipelines and supporting reproducible evaluations, FairPrep fills a critical gap in the fairness benchmarking landscape and provides a practical foundation for advancing data-level fairness research.

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate human-like capabilities in language understanding, reasoning, and generation, driving interest in using LLM-based agents to simulate human feedback in recommender systems. However, most existing approaches rely on static user profiling, neglecting the temporal and dynamic nature of user interests. This limitation stems from a disconnect between language modelling and behaviour modelling, which constrains the capacity of agents to represent sequential patterns. To address this challenge, we propose a Dynamic Temporal-aware Agent-based simulator for Recommender Systems, DyTA4Rec, which enables agents to model and utilise evolving user behaviour based on historical interactions. DyTA4Rec features a dynamic updater for real-time profile refinement, temporal-enhanced prompting for sequential context, and self-adaptive aggregation for coherent feedback. Experimental results at group and individual levels show that DyTA4Rec significantly improves the alignment between simulated and actual user behaviour by modelling dynamic characteristics and enhancing temporal awareness in LLM-based agents.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive capabilities in natural language processing but still struggle to perform well on knowledge-intensive tasks that require deep reasoning and the integration of external knowledge. Although methods such as Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) and Chain-of-Thought (CoT) have been proposed to enhance LLMs with external knowledge, they still suffer from internal bias in LLMs, which often leads to incorrect answers. In this paper, we propose a novel causal prompting framework, Conditional Front-Door Prompting (CFD-Prompting), which enables the unbiased estimation of the causal effect between the query and the answer, conditional on external knowledge, while mitigating internal bias. By constructing counterfactual external knowledge, our framework simulates how the query behaves under varying contexts, addressing the challenge that the query is fixed and is not amenable to direct causal intervention. Compared to the standard front-door adjustment, the conditional variant operates under weaker assumptions, enhancing both robustness and generalisability of the reasoning process. Extensive experiments across multiple LLMs and benchmark datasets demonstrate that CFD-Prompting significantly outperforms existing baselines in both accuracy and robustness.

Deep spatio-temporal neural networks are increasingly used in urban computing, impacting critical infrastructure such as public transport, emergency services, and traffic systems. While most methods focus on accuracy, fairness has become a key concern as biased predictions can disadvantage specific demographic or geographic groups, reinforcing inequalities. We propose FairDRL-ST, a disentangled representation learning framework for fair spatio-temporal prediction, with a focus on mobility demand forecasting. By combining adversarial and disentangled learning, our approach separates sensitive attributes and achieves fairness in an unsupervised manner with minimal performance loss. Experiments on real-world urban mobility datasets show that FairDRL-ST reduces fairness gaps while maintaining competitive predictive accuracy against state-of-the-art fairness-aware methods.1

Estimating causal effects is crucial for decision-makers in many applications, but it is particularly challenging with observational network data due to peer interactions. Some algorithms have been proposed to estimate causal effects involving network data, particularly peer effects, but they often fail to tell apart diverse peer effects. To address this issue, we propose a general setting which considers both peer direct effects and peer indirect effects, and the effect of an individual's own treatment, and provide the identification conditions of these causal effects. To differentiate these effects, we leverage causal mediation analysis and tailor it specifically for network data. Furthermore, given the inherent challenges of accurately estimating effects in networked environments, we propose to incorporate attention mechanisms to capture the varying influences of different neighbors and to explore high-order neighbor effects using multi-layer graph neural networks (GNNs). Additionally, we employ the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) to further enhance the model’s robustness and accuracy. Extensive experiments on two semi-synthetic datasets derived from real-world networks and on a dataset from a recommendation system confirm the effectiveness of our approach. Our findings have the potential to improve intervention strategies in networked systems, particularly in social networks and public health.

Traditional offline evaluation methods for recommender systems struggle to capture the complexity of modern platforms due to sparse behavioural signals, noisy data, and limited modelling of user personality traits.While simulation frameworks can generate synthetic data to address these gaps, existing methods fail to replicate behavioural diversity, limiting their effectiveness.To overcome these challenges, we propose the Personality-driven User Behaviour Simulator (PUB), an LLM-based simulation framework that integrates the Big Five personality traits to model personalised user behaviour.PUB dynamically infers user personality from behavioural logs (e.g., ratings, reviews) and item metadata, then generates synthetic interactions that preserve statistical fidelity to real-world data.Experiments on the Amazon review datasets show that logs generated by PUB closely align with real user behaviour and reveal meaningful associations between personality traits and recommendation outcomes.These results highlight the potential of the personality-driven simulator to advance recommender system evaluation, offering scalable, controllable, high-fidelity alternatives to resource-intensive real-world experiments.1

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) is a crucial problem in reinforcement learning (RL), where the goal is to estimate the long-term cumulative reward of a target policy using historical data generated by a potentially different behaviour policy. In many real-world applications, such as precision medicine and recommendation systems, unobserved confounders may influence the action, reward, and state transition dynamics, which leads to biased estimates if not properly addressed. While existing methods for handling unobserved confounders in OPE focus on single-action settings, they are less effective in multi-action scenarios commonly found in practical applications, where an agent can take multiple actions simultaneously. In this paper, we propose a novel auxiliary variable-aided method for OPE in multi-action settings with unobserved confounders. Our approach overcomes the limitations of traditional auxiliary variable methods for multi-action scenarios by requiring only a single auxiliary variable, relaxing the need for as many auxiliary variables as the actions. Through theoretical analysis, we prove that our method provides an unbiased estimation of the target policy value. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that our estimator achieves better performance compared to existing baseline methods, highlighting its effectiveness and reliability in addressing unobserved confounders in multi-action OPE settings.

Abstract Within the realm of causal inference, a pivotal task involves causal effect estimation from observational data when there exist confounding variables. The K-Nearest Neighbour Matching (K-NNM) method is widely applied to handle confounding bias, but its general application sets a uniform K value for all samples, which can lead to suboptimal results in practice. To overcome this limitation, this paper introduces a novel method for causal effect estimation called Dynamic K-Nearest Neighbour Matching (DK-NNM). The DK-NNM method employs a data-driven learning strategy to determine the optimal value of K for each sample. In practice, DK-NNM reconstructs a sparse coefficient matrix for all samples using sparse learning, while simultaneously learning a graph matrix to preserve local information and sample similarity. This approach helps identify the most suitable K-value for each sample. Additionally, DK-NNM utilizes joint propensity and prognostic scores to effectively mitigate confounding bias arising from high-dimensional covariates during the K-NNM process. Experiments performed on various synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world datasets conclusively demonstrate that DK-NNM surpasses baseline models in estimating causal effects from observational data and provides significant improvements over traditional methods.

Latent confounders are a fundamental challenge for inferring causal effects from observational data. The instrumental variable (IV) approach is a practical way to address this challenge. Existing IV-based estimators need a known IV or other strong assumptions, such as the existence of two or more IVs in the system, which limits the application of the IV approach. In this article, we consider a relaxed requirement, which assumes there is an IV proxy in the system without knowing which variable is the proxy. We propose a variational autoencoder (VAE)-based disentangled representation learning method to learn an IV representation from a dataset with latent confounders and then utilize the IV representation to obtain an unbiased estimation of the causal effect from the data. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world data have demonstrated that the proposed algorithm outperforms the existing IV-based estimators and VAE-based estimators.

Causal inference from longitudinal observational data is a challenging problem due to the difficulty in correctly identifying the time-dependent confounders, especially in the presence of latent time-dependent confounders. Instrumental variable (IV) is a powerful tool for addressing the latent confounders issue, but the traditional IV technique cannot deal with latent time-dependent confounders in longitudinal studies. In this work, we propose a novel Time-dependent Instrumental Factor Model (TIFM) for time-varying causal effect estimation from data with latent time-dependent confounders. At each time-step, the proposed TIFM method employs the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) architecture to infer latent IV, and then uses the inferred latent IV factor for addressing the confounding bias caused by the latent time-dependent confounders. We provide a theoretical analysis for the proposed TIFM method regarding causal effect estimation in longitudinal data. Extensive evaluation with synthetic datasets demonstrates the effectiveness of TIFM in addressing causal effect estimation over time. We further apply TIFM to a climate dataset to showcase the potential of the proposed method in tackling real-world problems.

This paper studies the challenging problem of estimating causal effects from observational data, in the presence of unobserved confounders. The two-stage least square (TSLS) method and its variants with a standard instrumental variable (IV) are commonly used to eliminate confounding bias, including the bias caused by unobserved confounders, but they rely on the linearity assumption. Besides, the strict condition of unconfounded instruments posed on a standard IV is too strong to be practical. To address these challenging and practical problems of the standard IV method (linearity assumption and the strict condition), in this paper, we use a conditional IV (CIV) to relax the unconfounded instrument condition of standard IV and propose a non-linear \underline{CIV} regression with \underline{C}onfounding \underline{B}alancing \underline{R}epresentation \underline{L}earning, CBRL.CIV, for jointly eliminating the confounding bias from unobserved confounders and balancing the observed confounders, without the linearity assumption. We theoretically demonstrate the soundness of CBRL.CIV. Extensive experiments on synthetic and two real-world datasets show the competitive performance of CBRL.CIV against state-of-the-art IV-based estimators and superiority in dealing with the non-linear situation.

An essential and challenging problem in causal inference is causal effect estimation from observational data. The problem becomes more difficult with the presence of unobserved confounding variables. The front-door adjustment is an approach for dealing with unobserved confounding variables. However, the restriction for the standard front-door adjustment is difficult to satisfy in practice. In this paper, we relax some of the restrictions by proposing the concept of conditional front-door (CFD) adjustment and develop the theorem that guarantees the causal effect identifiability of CFD adjustment. By leveraging the ability of deep generative models, we propose CFDiVAE to learn the representation of the CFD adjustment variable directly from data with the identifiable Variational AutoEncoder and formally prove the model identifiability. Extensive experiments on synthetic datasets validate the effectiveness of CFDiVAE and its superiority over existing methods. The experiments also show that the performance of CFDiVAE is less sensitive to the causal strength of unobserved confounding variables. We further apply CFDiVAE to a real-world dataset to demonstrate its potential application.

The instrumental variable (IV) approach is a widely used way to estimate the causal effects of a treatment on an outcome of interest from observational data with latent confounders. A standard IV is expected to be related to the treatment variable and independent of all other variables in the system. However, it is challenging to search for a standard IV from data directly due to the strict conditions. The conditional IV (CIV) method has been proposed to allow a variable to be an instrument conditioning on a set of variables, allowing a wider choice of possible IVs and enabling broader practical applications of the IV approach. Nevertheless, there is not a data-driven method to discover a CIV and its conditioning set directly from data. To fill this gap, in this paper, we propose to learn the representations of the information of a CIV and its conditioning set from data with latent confounders for average causal effect estimation. By taking advantage of deep generative models, we develop a novel data-driven approach for simultaneously learning the representation of a CIV from measured variables and generating the representation of its conditioning set given measured variables. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that our method outperforms the existing IV methods.

Estimating direct and indirect causal effects from observational data is crucial to understanding the causal mechanisms and predicting the behaviour under different interventions. Causal mediation analysis is a method that is often used to reveal direct and indirect effects. Deep learning shows promise in mediation analysis, but the current methods only assume latent confounders that affect treatment, mediator and outcome simultaneously, and fail to identify different types of latent confounders (e.g., confounders that only affect the mediator or outcome). Furthermore, current methods are based on the sequential ignorability assumption, which is not feasible for dealing with multiple types of latent confounders. This work aims to circumvent the sequential ignorability assumption and applies the piecemeal deconfounding assumption as an alternative. We propose the Disentangled Mediation Analysis Variational AutoEncoder (DMAVAE), which disentangles the representations of latent confounders into three types to accurately estimate the natural direct effect, natural indirect effect and total effect. Experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms existing methods and has strong generalisation ability. We further apply the method to a real-world dataset to show its potential application.

In causal inference, it is a fundamental task to estimate the causal effect from observational data. However, latent confounders pose major challenges in causal inference in observational data, for example, confounding bias and M-bias. Recent data-driven causal effect estimators tackle the confounding bias problem via balanced representation learning, but assume no M-bias in the system, thus they fail to handle the M-bias. In this paper, we identify a challenging and unsolved problem caused by a variable that leads to confounding bias and M-bias simultaneously. To address this problem with co-occurring M-bias and confounding bias, we propose a novel Disentangled Latent Representation learning framework for learning latent representations from proxy variables for unbiased Causal effect Estimation (DLRCE) from observational data. Specifically, DLRCE learns three sets of latent representations from the measured proxy variables to adjust for the confounding bias and M-bias. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and three real-world datasets demonstrate that DLRCE significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art estimators in the case of the presence of both confounding bias and M-bias.