Predicting the popularity of user-generated content (UGC) is a crucial but challenging task in social media analysis. While existing retrieval-augmented models enhance predictions by supplying rich contextual information, they remain limited by a fundamental precision-recall dilemma: enlarging the retrieval set increases coverage but introduces noisy, irrelevant context that harms prediction. In this work, we propose a unified framework that learns to retrieve, filter, and predict. Central to our approach is a Mixture-of-Logits-based retrieval module that replaces static similarity metrics with a dynamic, multi-faceted scoring function, enabling the retriever to be directly optimized by the prediction objective. Then an uncertainty-aware filter is designed to perform differentiable subset selection and refine the selected representations using the information bottleneck principle. At last, to enhance predictive robustness, we introduce a confidence-weighted test-time perturbation strategy. By learning to retrieve UGCs that are beneficial for prediction and filtering out uncertainty, our framework provides more relevant and reliable context. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves state-of-the-art performance, consistently outperforming strong baselines.

Understanding and predicting the popularity of online User-Generated Content (UGC) is critical for various social and recommendation systems. Existing efforts have focused on extracting predictive features and using pre-trained deep models to learn and fuse multimodal UGC representations. However, the dissemination of social UGCs is not an isolated process in social network; rather, it is influenced by contextual relevant UGCs and various exogenous factors, including social ties, trends, user interests, and platform algorithms. In this work, we propose a retrieval-based framework to enhance the popularity prediction of multimodal UGCs. Our framework extends beyond a simple semantic retrieval, incorporating a meta retrieval strategy that queries a diverse set of relevant UGCs by considering multimodal content semantics, and metadata from user and post. Moreover, to eliminate irrelevant and noisy UGCs in retrieval, we introduce a new measure called Relative Retrieval Contribution to Prediction (RRCP), which selectively refines the retrieved UGCs. We then aggregate the contextual UGC knowledge using vision-language graph neural networks, and fuse them with an RRCP-Attention-based prediction network. Extensive experiments on three large-scale social media datasets demonstrate significant improvements ranging from 26.68% to 48.19% across all metrics compared to strong baselines.

Online crowdfunding platforms have been gaining increasing popularity due to their convenience in soliciting social capital from the public. These platforms offer valuable opportunities for fundraisers to bring their creative products to life and support pro-social projects. However, the relatively low success rate of crowdfunding campaigns highlights the need for better strategies. While existing studies have explored various factors that contribute to crowdfunding success, they often overlook the intricate relationships between different aspects of crowdfunding. In this paper, we propose a novel model called Commonality Augmented Multimodal Disentanglement (CAMD) for predicting crowdfunding success. It can disentangle the roles of different data modalities, separating common factors from specific ones. Besides, we enhance the disentangled commonality using an augmentation network to achieve balanced representation of the skewed interrelations between different modalities. At last, we introduce a cross-attention-based multimodal fusion mechanism that further improves model performance by highlighting the crucial role of crowdfunding attributes. Experiments conducted on two large-scale crowdfunding datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and generalizability of our model.

Multimodal sentiment analysis is critical in many real-world applications like smart cities, healthcare, and human-computer interaction, where sentiment is conveyed through various modalities, including text, audio, and video. However, existing methods still face several critical challenges in mitigating the impact of random modality loss, particularly in preserving the reliability of emotional patterns. To address these limitations, we introduce UniMSA, a novel framework for multimodal sentiment analysis with missing modalities. It addresses the missing data issue by improving the bipolar emotional uncertainty learning. Our approach enhances the reliability of sentiment analysis by integrating both positive and negative emotional uncertainty estimations to recover emotional patterns in randomly missing modalities. Extensive experiments conducted on large-scale multimodal sentiment datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of UniMSA in comparison to state-of-the-art methods.

Short Video Hate Detection (SVHD) is increasingly vital as hateful content -such as racial and gender-based discriminationspreads rapidly across platforms like TikTok, YouTube Shorts, and Instagram Reels.Existing approaches face significant challenges: hate expressions continuously evolve, hateful signals are dispersed across multiple modalities (audio, text, and vision), and the contribution of each modality varies across different hate content.To address these issues, we introduce MoRE (Mixture of Retrievalaugmented multimodal Experts), a novel framework designed to enhance SVHD.MoRE employs specialized multimodal experts for each modality, leveraging their unique strengths to identify hateful content effectively.To ensure model's adaptability to rapidly evolving hate content, MoRE leverages contextual knowledge extracted from relevant instances retrieved by a powerful joint multimodal video retriever for each target short video.Moreover, a dynamic sample-sensitive integration network adaptively adjusts the importance of each modality on a per-sample basis, optimizing the detection process by prioritizing the most informative modalities for each instance.Our MoRE adopts an end-to-end training strategy that jointly optimizes both expert networks and the overall framework, resulting in nearly a twofold improvement in training efficiency, which in turn enhances its applicability to real-world scenarios.Extensive experiments on three benchmarks demonstrate that MoRE surpasses state-of-the-art baselines, achieving an average improvement of 6.91% in macro-F1 score across all datasets.

Network traffic anomaly detection is pivotal in cybersecurity, especially as data volume grows and security requirement intensifies. This study addresses critical limitations in existing reconstruction-based methods, which quantify anomalies relying on intra-sample differences and struggle to detect drifted anomalies. In response, we propose a novel approach, the Uncertainty-Inspired Inter-Sample Differences (UnDiff) method, which leverages model uncertainty to enhance anomaly detection capabilities, particularly in scenarios involving anomaly drift. By employing evidential learning, the UnDiff model gathers evidence to minimize uncertainty in normal network traffic, enhancing its ability to differentiate between normal and anomalous traffic. To overcome the limitations of intra-sample difference quantification in reconstruction-based methods, we propose a novel anomaly score based on inter-sample uncertainty deviation that directly quantifies the anomaly degree. Benefiting from a concise model design and parameterized uncertainty quantification, UnDiff achieves high efficiency. Extensive experiments on three benchmarks demonstrate UnDiff's superior performance in detecting both undrifted and drifted anomalies with minimal computational overhead.

Graph anomaly detection is critical in domains such as healthcare and economics, where identifying deviations can prevent substantial losses. Existing unsupervised approaches strive to learn a single model capable of detecting both attribute and structural anomalies. However, they confront the tug-of-war problem between two distinct types of anomalies, resulting in suboptimal performance. This work presents TripleAD, a mutual distillation-based triple-channel graph anomaly detection framework. It includes three estimation modules to identify the attribute, structural, and mixed anomalies while mitigating the interference between different types of anomalies. In the first channel, we design a multiscale attribute estimation module to capture extensive node interactions and ameliorate the over-smoothing issue. To better identify structural anomalies, we introduce a link-enhanced structure estimation module in the second channel that facilitates information flow to topologically isolated nodes. The third channel is powered by an attribute-mixed curvature, a new indicator that encapsulates both attribute and structural information for discriminating mixed anomalies. Moreover, a mutual distillation strategy is introduced to encourage communication and collaboration between the three channels. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed TripleAD model against strong baselines.

Information diffusion prediction is a critical task for many social network applications. However, current methods are mainly limited by the following aspects: user relationships behind resharing behaviors are complex and entangled. To address these issues, we propose MHGFormer, a novel multi-channel hypergraph transformer framework, to better decouple complex user relations and obtain fine-grained user representations. First, we employ designed triangular motifs to decouple user relations into three different level hypergraphs. Second, a position-aware hypergraph transformer is used to refine user relation and obtain high-quality user representations. Extensive experiments conducted on two social datasets demonstrate that MHGFormer outperforms state-of-the-art diffusion models across several settings.

Social media popularity prediction of multimodal user-generated content (UGC) is a crucial task for many real-world applications. However, existing efforts are often limited by missing inter-instance correlations and UGC temporal patterns. To address these issues, we propose a novel time-aware hypergraph Transformer framework, THGFormer. It fully represents inter-instance and intra-instance relations by hypergraphs, captures the temporal dependencies with a time encoder, and enhances UGC's representations via a neighborhood knowledge aggregation. Extensive experiments conducted on two real-world datasets demonstrate that THGFormer outperforms state-of-the-art popularity prediction models across several settings.

Source localization, as a reverse problem of information dissemination on graphs, is crucial for tracking social rumors, detecting computer viruses, and identifying epidemic spreaders. However, existing methods face challenges due to the inherent uncertainty of graph diffusion, as the same diffused observations may start with diverse sources. Furthermore, general graph diffusion models did not consider important properties of the diffusion process. To address these issues, we propose a denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM)-based source localization framework, DDSL. In this framework, we consider two distinct characteristics of information dissemination, namely source prominence and monotone increasing, and present a source localization-oriented invertible graph neural network (GNN). To capture the propagation uncertainties of sources, we design a DDPM-based source generator to generate effective and diverse sources for enhancing model’s robustness. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model in improving source localization performance.

Prevailing embedding-based cross-domain recommendation (CDR) techniques produce embeddings individually or transfer the overall feature distribution from one domain to another. However, in real-world applications, they might be ineffective due to semantic gap across domains, which arises from divergent purposes and descriptive styles. In this work, we aim to address this challenge between Mini Program and content channel in Alipay, the largest mobile payment platform in China. To bridge utility-oriented Mini Programs and advertisement-oriented contents, we utilize side information of entities to make the entity relevance scores trustworthy. Then we introduce a knowledge graph-based model to reduce the impact of embedding vibrating from contrastive learning and the biases from the pretrained language models. Extensive experiments conducted on a large-scale Alipay offline dataset as well as an online environment demonstrated the effectiveness of our proposed framework.

Accurately predicting the popularity of multimodal user-generated content (UGC) is fundamental for many real-world applications such as online advertising and recommendation. Existing approaches generally focus on limited contextual information within individual UGCs, yet overlook the potential benefit of exploiting meaningful knowledge in relevant UGCs. In this work, we propose RAGTrans, an aspect-aware retrieval-augmented multi-modal hypergraph transformer that retrieves pertinent knowledge from a multi-modal memory bank and enhances UGC representations via neighborhood knowledge aggregation on multi-model hypergraphs. In particular, we initially retrieve relevant multimedia instances from a large corpus of UGCs via the aspect information and construct a knowledge-enhanced hypergraph based on retrieved relevant instances. This allows capturing meaningful contextual information across the data. We then design a novel bootstrapping hypergraph transformer on multimodal hypergraphs to strengthen UGC representations across modalities via customizing a propagation algorithm to effectively diffuse information across nodes and edges. Additionally, we propose a user-aware attention-based fusion module to comprise the enriched UGC representations for popularity prediction. Extensive experiments on real-world social media datasets demonstrate that RAGTrans outperforms state-of-the-art popularity prediction models across settings.

A critical aspect of graph neural networks (GNNs) is to enhance the node representations by aggregating node neighborhood information. However, when detecting anomalies, the representations of abnormal nodes are prone to be averaged by normal neighbors, making the learned anomaly representations less distinguishable. To tackle this issue, we propose an unsupervised counterfactual data augmentation method for graph anomaly detection (CAGAD) that introduces a graph pointer neural network as the heterophilic node detector to identify potential anomalies whose neighborhoods are normal-node-dominant. For each identified potential anomaly, we design a graph-specific diffusion model to translate a part of its neighbors, which are probably normal, into anomalous ones. At last, we involve these translated neighbors in GNN neighborhood aggregation to produce counterfactual representations of anomalies. Through aggregating the translated anomalous neighbors, counterfactual representations become more distinguishable and further advocate detection performance. The experimental results on four datasets demonstrate that CAGAD significantly outperforms strong baselines, with an average improvement of 2.35% on F1, 2.53% on AUC-ROC, and 2.79% on AUC-PR.

Landslides refer to occurrences of massive ground movements due to geological (and meteorological) factors, and can have disastrous impacts on property, economy, and even lead to the loss of life. The advances in remote sensing provide accurate and continuous terrain monitoring, enabling the study and analysis of land deformation which, in turn, can be used for land deformation prediction. Prior studies either rely on predefined factors and patterns or model static land observations without considering the subtle interactions between different point locations and the dynamic changes of the surface conditions, causing the prediction model to be less generalized and unable to capture the temporal deformation characteristics. To address these issues, we present DyLand, a dynamic manifold learning framework that models the dynamic structures of the terrain surface. We contribute to the land deformation prediction literature in four directions. First, DyLand learns the spatial connections of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) measurements and estimates the conditional distributions on a dynamic terrain manifold with a novel normalizing flow-based method. Second, instead of modeling the stable terrains, we incorporate surface permutations and capture the innate dynamics of the land surface while allowing for tractable likelihood estimations on the manifold. Third, we formulate the spatiotemporal learning of land deformations as a dynamic system and unify the learning of spatial embeddings and surface deformation. Finally, extensive experiments on curated real-world InSAR datasets (land slopes prone to landslides) show that DyLand outperforms existing benchmark models.

Information cascade popularity prediction is an important problem in social network content diffusion analysis. Various facets have been investigated (e.g., diffusion structures and patterns, user influence) and, recently, deep learning models based on sequential architecture and graph neural network (GNN) have been leveraged. However, despite the improvements attained in predicting the future popularity, these methodologies fail to capture two essential aspects inherent to information diffusion: (1) the temporal irregularity of cascade event – i.e., users’ re-tweetings at random and non-periodic time instants; and (2) the inherent uncertainty of the information diffusion. To address these challenges, in this work, we present CasDO – a novel framework for information cascade popularity prediction with probabilistic diffusion models and neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We devise a temporal ODE network to generalize the discrete state transitions in RNNs to continuous-time dynamics. CasDO introduces a probabilistic diffusion model to consider the uncertainties in information diffusion by injecting noises in the forwarding process and reconstructing cascade embedding in the reversing process. Extensive experiments that we conducted on three large-scale datasets demonstrate the advantages of the CasDO model over baselines.

Deep neural networks have recently achieved considerable improvements in learning human behavioral patterns and individual preferences from massive spatial-temporal trajectory data. However, most of the existing research concentrates on fusing different semantics underlying sequential trajectories for mobility pattern learning which, in turn, yields a narrow perspective on comprehending human intrinsic motions. In addition, the inherent sparsity and under-explored heterogeneous collaborative items pertaining to human check-ins hinder the potential exploitation of human diverse periodic regularities as well as common interests. Motivated by recent advances in disentanglement learning, we propose a novel disentangled solution called SSDL for tackling the next POI prediction problem. SSDL primarily seeks to disentangle the potential time-invariant and time-varying factors into different latent spaces from massive trajectories, providing an interpretable view to understand the intricate semantics underlying human diverse mobility representations. To address the data sparsity issue, we present two realistic trajectory augmentation approaches to enhance the understanding of both the human intrinsic periodicity/habits and constantly-changing intents. In addition, we devise a POI-centric graph structure to explore heterogeneous collaborative signals underlying historical check-ins. Extensive experiments conducted on four real-world datasets demonstrate that SSDL significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches–for example, it yields up to 8.57% averaged improvement on ACC@1.

Fine-grained urban flow inference (FUFI) problem aims at inferring the high-resolution flow maps from the coarse-grained ones, which plays an important role in sustainable and economic urban computing and traffic management. Previous models addressed the FUFI problem from spatial constraint, external factors, and memory cost. However, utilizing the new urban flow maps to calibrate the learned model is very challenging due to the "catastrophic forgetting" problem and is still under-explored. In this paper, we make the first step in FUFI and present CUFAR -- Continual Urban Flow inference with Adaptive knowledge Replay -- a novel framework for inferring the fine-grained citywide traffic flows. Specifically, (1) we design a spatial-temporal inference network that can extract better flow map features from both local and global levels; (2) then we present an adaptive knowledge replay (AKR) training algorithm to selectively replay the learned knowledge to facilitate the learning process of the model on new knowledge without forgetting. In addition, we also propose a knowledge discriminator to avoid "negative replaying" issue introduced by noisy urban flow maps. Extensive experiments on four large-scale real-world FUFI datasets demonstrate that our proposed model consistently outperforms strong baselines and effectively mitigates the forgetting problem. Source code is available at: https://github.com/PattonYu/CUFAR.

Predicting information cascade popularity is a fundamental problem for understanding the nature of information propagation on social media. However, existing works fail to capture an essential aspect of information propagation: the temporal irregularity of cascade event -- i.e., users' re-tweetings at random and non-periodic time instants. In this work, we present a novel framework CasODE for information cascade prediction with neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs). CasODE generalizes the discrete state transitions in RNNs to continuous-time dynamics for modeling the irregular-sampled events in information cascades. Experimental evaluations on real-world datasets demonstrate the advantages of the CasODE over baseline approaches.

Source localization, as a reverse problem of graph diffusion, is important for many applications such as rumor tracking, detecting computer viruses, and finding epidemic spreaders. However, it is still under-explored due to the inherent uncertainty of the diffusion process: after a long period of propagation, the same diffusion process may start with diverse sources. Most existing solutions utilize deterministic models and therefore cannot describe the diffusion uncertainty of sources. Moreover, current probabilistic approaches are hard to conduct smooth transformations with variational inference. To overcome the limitations, we propose a probabilistic framework using continuous normalizing flows with invertible transformations and graph neural networks to explicitly model the uncertainty of the diffusion source. Experimental results on two real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our model over strong baselines.

Temporal heterogeneous networks (THNs) investigate the structural interactions and their evolution over time in graphs with multiple types of nodes or edges. Existing THNs describe evolving networks as a sequence of graph snapshots and adopt mechanisms from static heterogeneous networks to capture the spatial-temporal correlation. However, these works are confined to the discrete-time setting and the implementation of stacked mechanisms often introduces a high level of complexity, both conceptually and computationally. Here, we conduct comprehensive examinations and propose STHN, a simplifying THN for continuous-time link prediction. Concretely, to integrate continuous dynamics, we maintain a historical interaction memory for each node. A link encoder that incorporates two components - type encoding and relative time encoding - is introduced to encapsulate implicit heterogeneous characteristics of interaction and extract the most informative temporal information. We further propose to use a patching technique that assists with Transformer feature extractor to support the interaction sequence with long histories. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets empirically demonstrate that STHN outperforms state-of-the-art methods with competitive task accuracy and predictive efficiency on both transductive and inductive settings.

Crowdfunding platforms have become pivotal financial support avenues for diverse causes, yet the success rates are surprisingly low. Previous research has largely focused on reward-based crowdfunding, leaving donation-based platforms under-studied. In addition, the roles of multimodal data (e.g., textual descriptions and visual photos) and dynamic elements (e.g., sequences of donations, project updates, and comments) in influencing campaign success have been largely overlooked. This paper introduces MDCC, a Multimodal Dynamic dataset for donation-based Crowdfunding Campaigns, collected from 14,961 projects on GoFundMe, incorporates multimodal project information and captures project dynamics, thus providing a comprehensive tool for analyzing donation-based crowdfunding. The dataset is expected to inspire innovative methodologies and facilitate understanding of project success determinants. Our preliminary experiments demonstrate the significance of multimodal and dynamic crowdfunding data on predicting the success of donation-based projects.

Inferring the citywide urban traffic flows is critical for numerous smart city applications such as urban planning, traffic control, and transportation management. Urban traffic flow inference problem aims to generate fine-grained flow maps from the coarse-grained ones. It is still challenging due to the lack of handling uncertainties of flow distributions and complex external factors that affect the inference performance. In this work, we propose a diffusion probabilistic augmentation-based network for considering the uncertainties of urban flows with a relaxed structural constraint and a disentangled scheme for flow map and external factor learning. Experiments are conducted on four large-scale urban flow datasets, and the results show that our method achieves significant performance improvements over strong baselines.

Fine-grained urban flow inference (FUFI) problem aims to infer the fine-grained flow maps from coarse-grained ones, benefiting various smart-city applications by reducing electricity, maintenance, and operation costs. Existing models use techniques from image super-resolution and achieve good performance in FUFI. However, they often rely on supervised learning with a large amount of training data, and often lack generalization capability and face overfitting. We present a new solution:Spatial-TemporalContrasting for Fine-Grained UrbanFlow Inference (STCF). It consists of (i) two pre-training networks for spatial-temporal contrasting between flow maps; and (ii) one coupled fine-tuning network for fusing learned features. By attractingspatial-temporally similarflow maps while distancing dissimilar ones within the representation space, STCF enhances efficiency and performance. Comprehensive experiments on two large-scale, real-world urban flow datasets reveal that STCF reduces inference error by up to 13.5%, requiring significantly fewer data and model parameters than prior arts.

Graph anomaly detection is attracting remarkable multidisciplinary research interests ranging from finance, healthcare, and social network analysis. Recent advances on graph neural networks have substantially improved the detection performance via semi-supervised representation learning. However, prior work suggests that deep graph-based methods tend to learn spurious correlations. As a result, they fail to generalize beyond training data distribution. In this article, we aim to identify structural and contextual anomaly nodes in an attributed graph. Based on our preliminary data analyses, spurious correlations can be eliminated with causal subgraph interventions. Therefore, we propose a new graph-based anomaly detection model that can learn causal relations for anomaly detection while generalizing to new environments. To handle situations with varying environments, we steer the generative model to manufacture synthetic environment features, which are exerted on realistic subgraphs to generate counterfactual subgraphs. Further, these counterfactual subgraphs help a few-shot anomaly detection model learn transferable and causal relations across different environments. The experiments on three real-world attributed graphs show that the proposed approach achieves the best performance compared to the state-of-the-art baselines and learns robust causal representations resistant to noises and spurious correlations.

Supervised learning, while prevalent for information cascade modeling, often requires abundant labeled data in training, and the trained model is not easy to generalize across tasks and datasets. Semi-supervised learning facilitates unlabeled data for cascade understanding in pre-training. It often learns fine-grained feature-level representations, which can easily result in overfitting for downstream tasks. Recently, contrastive self-supervised learning is designed to alleviate these two fundamental issues in linguistic and visual tasks. However, its direct applicability for cascade modeling, especially graph cascade related tasks, remains underexplored. In this work, we present Contrastive Cascade Graph Learning (CCGL), a novel framework for cascade graph representation learning in a contrastive, self-supervised, and task-agnostic way. In particular, CCGL first designs an effective data augmentation strategy to capture variation and uncertainty. Second, it learns a generic model for graph cascade tasks via self-supervised contrastive pre-training using both unlabeled and labeled data. Third, CCGL learns a task-specific cascade model via fine-tuning using labeled data. Finally, to make the model transferable across datasets and cascade applications, CCGL further enhances the model via distillation using a teacher-student architecture. We demonstrate that CCGL significantly outperforms its supervised and semi-supervised counterparts for several downstream tasks.

Understanding in-network information diffusion is a fundamental problem in many applications and one of the primary challenges is to predict the information cascade size. Most of the existing models rely either on hypothesized point process (e.g., Poisson and Hawkes processes), or simply predict the information propagation via deep neural networks. However, they fail to simultaneously capture the underlying global and local structures of a cascade and the propagation uncertainty in the diffusion, which may result in unsatisfactory prediction performance. To address these, in this work we propose a novel probabilistic cascade prediction frameworkCasFlow: Hierarchical Cascade Normalizing Flows. CasFlow allows a non-linear information diffusion inference and models the information diffusion process by learning the latent representation of both the structural and temporal information. It is a pattern-agnostic model leveraging normalizing flows to learn the node-level and cascade-level latent factors in an unsupervised manner. In addition, CasFlow is capable of capturing both the cascade representation uncertainty and node infection uncertainty, while enabling hierarchical pattern learning of information diffusion. Extensive experiments conducted on real-world datasets demonstrate that CasFlow reduces the prediction error to 21.0% by only observing half an hour of cascades, compared to state-of-the-art approaches, while also enabling model interpretability.

Electricity forecasting has important implications for the key decisions in modern electricity systems, ranging from power generation, transmission, distribution and so on. In the literature, traditional statistic approaches, machine-learning methods and deep learning (e.g., recurrent neural network) based models are utilized to model the trends and patterns in electricity time-series data. However, they are restricted either by their deterministic forms or by independence in probabilistic assumptions -- thereby neglecting the uncertainty or significant correlations between distributions of electricity data. Ignoring these, in turn, may yield error accumulation, especially when relying on historical data and aiming at multi-step prediction. To overcome these, we propose a novel method named Probabilistic Electricity Forecasting (PrEF) by proposing a non-linear neural state space model (SSM) and incorporating copula-augmented mechanism into that, which can learn uncertainty-dependencies knowledge and understand interactive relationships between various factors from large-scale electricity time-series data. Our method distinguishes itself from existing models by its traceable inference procedure and its capability of providing high-quality probabilistic distribution predictions. Extensive experiments on two real-world electricity datasets demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms the alternatives.

Conditional neural process (CNP) has been extensively applied into data analyzing tasks due to its excellent ability to make accurate predictions for incomplete data points. However, in literature there are only few works that studied the CNPin recommendation systems. In this work, we propose CCFP, which is a collaborative filtering method that differs from other CF models by incorporating CNP into encoder-decoder architecture. By analyzing the complete user-item interaction data, our model fits a global representation that can better rep-resenting the features of users and items. CCFP can significantly improve the recommendation performance compared to baselines by predicting items for the target users with their incomplete observation data.

Fine-grained urban flow inference (FUFI) aims to infer the coarse-grained (CG) urban flow map to the corresponding fine-grained (FG) one, which plays an important role in efficient traffic monitoring and management in smart cities. In FUFI, the CG map can be obtained with only a small number of monitoring devices, greatly reducing the overhead of deploying devices and the costs of maintenance, labor, and electricity. Existing FUFI methods are mainly based on techniques from image super-resolution (SR) models, which cannot fully consider the influence of external factors and face the ill-posed problem in SR tasks. In this paper, we propose UFI-Flow, a novel approach for addressing the FUFI problem by learning the conditional distributions of CG and FG map pairs. Given the CG map and the latent variables, the corresponding FG map is inferred by invertible transformations. In addition, an augmented distribution fusion mechanism is further proposed to constrain the urban flow distribution within the influence of external factors. We provide a new large-scale real-world FUFI dataset and show that UFI-Flow significantly outperforms the strong baselines.

Information cascade is typically formalized as a process of (simplified) discrete sequence of events, and recent approaches have tackled its prediction via variants of recurrent neural networks. However, the information diffusion process is essentially an evolving directed acyclic graph (DAG) in the continuous-time domain. In this paper, we propose a transformer enhanced Hawkes process (Hawkesformer), which links the hierarchical attention mechanism with Hawkes process to model the arrival stream of discrete events continuously. A two-level attention architecture is used to parameterize the intensity function of Hawkesformer, which captures the long-term dependencies between nodes in graph and better embeds the cascade evolution rate for modeling short-term outbreaks. Experimental results demonstrate the significant improvements of Hawkesformer over the state-of-the-art.

Fine-grained urban flow inference (FUFI) aims at enhancing the resolution of traffic flow, which plays an important role in intelligent traffic management. Existing FUFI methods are mainly based on techniques from image super-resolution (SR) models, which cannot fully capture the influence of external factors and face the ill-posed problem in SR tasks. In this paper, we propose UFI-Flow – Urban Flow Inference via normalizing Flow, a novel model for addressing the FUFI problem in a principled manner by using a single probabilistic loss. UFI-Flow therefore directly accounts for the ill-posed nature of the problem and learns spatial correlations between urban flow maps. In addition, an augmented distribution fusion mechanism is further proposed to reinforce the influence of external factors in the joint distribution inference. We conduct comprehensive experiments on real-world datasets to show the superiority of the proposed model compared to the state-of-the-art baseline approaches.

Forecasting complex time series is ubiquitous and vital in a range of applications but challenging. Recent advances endeavor to achieve progress by incorporating various deep learning techniques (e.g., RNN and Transformer) into sequential models. However, clear patterns are still hard to extract since time series are often composed of several intricately entangled components. Motivated by the success of disentangled variational autoencoder in computer vision and classical time series decomposition, we plan to infer a couple of representations that depict seasonal and trend components of time series. To achieve this goal, we propose LaST, which, based on variational inference, aims to disentangle the seasonal-trend representations in the latent space. Furthermore, LaST supervises and disassociates representations from the perspectives of themselves and input reconstruction, and introduces a series of auxiliary objectives. Extensive experiments prove that LaST achieves state-of-the-art performance on time series forecasting task against the most advanced representation learning and end-to-end forecasting models. For reproducibility, our implementation is publicly available on Github.

The main objective of Personalized Tour Recommendation (PTR) is to generate a sequence of point-of-interest (POIs) for a particular tourist, according to the user-specific constraints such as duration time, start and end points, the number of attractions planned to visit, and so on. Previous PTR solutions are based on either heuristics for solving the orienteering problem to maximize a global reward with a specified budget or approaches attempting to learn user visiting preferences and transition patterns with the stochastic process or recurrent neural networks. However, existing learning methodologies rely on historical trips to train the model and use the next visited POI as the supervised signal, which may not fully capture the coherence of preferences and thus recommend similar trips to different users, primarily due to the data sparsity problem and long-tailed distribution of POI popularity. This work presents a novel tour recommendation model by distilling knowledge and supervision signals from the trips in a self-supervised manner. We propose Contrastive Trajectory Learning for Tour Recommendation (CTLTR), which utilizes the intrinsic POI dependencies and traveling intent to discover extra knowledge and augments the sparse data via pre-training auxiliary self-supervised objectives. CTLTR provides a principled way to characterize the inherent data correlations while tackling the implicit feedback and weak supervision problems by learning robust representations applicable for tour planning. We introduce a hierarchical recurrent encoder-decoder to identify tourists’ intentions and use the contrastive loss to discover subsequence semantics and their sequential patterns through maximizing the mutual information. Additionally, we observe that a data augmentation step as the preliminary of contrastive learning can solve the overfitting issue resulting from data sparsity. We conduct extensive experiments on a range of real-world datasets and demonstrate that our model can significantly improve the recommendation performance over the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of both recommendation accuracy and visiting orders.

In theory, the variational auto-encoder (VAE) is not suitable for recommendation tasks, although it has been successfully utilized for collaborative filtering (CF) models. In this paper, we propose a Gaussian Copula-Vector Quantized Autoencoder (GC-VQAE) model that differs prior arts in two key ways: (1) Gaussian Copula helps to model the dependencies among latent variables which are used to construct a more complex distribution compared with the mean-field theory; and (2) by incorporating a vector quantisation method into encoders our model can learn discrete representations which are consistent with the observed data rather than directly sampling from the simple Gaussian distributions. Our approach is able to circumvent the "posterior collapse'' issue and break the prior constraint to improve the flexibility of latent vector encoding and learning ability. Empirically, GC-VQAE can significantly improve the recommendation performance compared to existing state-of-the-art methods.

Cross-network alignment aims at identifying users who participate in different social networks, which benefits a variety of downstream social applications such as precise content delivery, fraud detection, and content/user recommender systems. Recent advances in network representations and graph neural networks have spurred various network structure-based methods for capturing underlying node similarities across social networks, thereby addressing the network alignment problem. However, most of the existing solutions rely on embedding methods that compute node similarity in Euclidean space, resulting in severe distortion or semantic loss when representing real-world social networks, which are usually scale free and with hierarchical structures. We address these issues by presenting a novel model: Hyperbolic Graph Embedding for Network Alignment (HGENA), which learns the structural semantics more efficiently by embedding nodes in hyperbolic space instead of Euclidean. HGENA overcomes the scalability issue since it requires far fewer dimensions in Riemannian manifolds and increases the capability of learning hierarchical structures, while enabling smaller distortion for tree-liked networks to facilitate node alignment. We also introduce alternative network mapping functions to compute node similarity across-network based on its distance on the Poincare ball. Experimental evaluations conducted on real world datasets demonstrate that HGENA achieves superior performance on social network alignment, especially for more tree-liked networks.

Effectively predicting the size of information cascades is crucial for understanding the evolution of many social applications, such as influence maximization and fake news detection. Conventional methods face the challenge of data imbalance which, in turn, yields unsatisfactory prediction performance. To prevent the loss functions or metrics from being affected by extreme values and assure numerical stability, previous works reformulate the problem definitions or adopt other types of evaluation metrics. However, solving the regression prediction of information cascades from a long-tailed distribution perspective is under explored. In this paper, we propose a general decoupling prediction solution -- first extracting the representation, then fine-tuning the regressor, which combines the original prediction value and weighted bias generated by a sub-network (SUB) that we designed. Our experiments conducted on long-tailed benchmarks demonstrate that our method significantly improves the prediction accuracy over state-of-the-art methods and mitigates the long-tailed cascade prediction problem.

Modeling the information diffusion process is an essential step towards understanding the mechanisms driving the success of information. Existing methods either exploit various features associated with cascades to study the underlying factors governing information propagation, or leverage graph representation techniques to model the diffusion process in an end-to-end manner. Current solutions are only valid for a static and fixed observation scenario and fail to handle increasing observations due to the challenge of catastrophic forgetting problems inherent in the machine learning approaches used for modeling and predicting cascades. To remedy this issue, we propose a novel dynamic information diffusion model CICP (Continual Information Cascades Prediction). CICP employs graph neural networks for modeling information diffusion and continually adapts to increasing observations. It is capable of capturing the correlations between successive observations while preserving the important parameters regarding cascade evolution and transition. Experiments conducted on real-world cascade datasets demonstrate that our method not only improves the prediction performance with accumulated data but also prevents the model from forgetting previously trained tasks.

Predicting the potential user interest on topics in online social networks is important for many practical applications such as advertising, recommendation and malicious account identification. Previous methods on such topic prediction problem mainly focus on learning user preference from historical posting content, and/or rely on the interest of friends to infer the topics a user may be interested in. However, these methods fail to take full advantage of high-order interactions between users and topics and the implicit relations among users, which may result in limited performance. In addition, existing approaches usually require a large amount of samples to train the model and therefore have poor prediction performance for the users who have few content and/or rarely follow the topics. To overcome these limitations, we present a novel method MetaTP (Meta learning based Topic Prediction) for exploiting the complex preference of users over the topics and identify the potential topics for cold-start users. MetaTP is built on a fast graph convolutional network to estimate the user interest through extracting user posting behavior from historical posting content and recursively aggregating the interest from the social friends of a user. Moreover, MetaTP introduces a new way of training prediction model in a meta-learning manner, which not only improves the performance on topic prediction but also can effectively and efficiently adapt to users with a few records. We validate our MetaTP model on real-world datasets crawled from popular social platforms and the empirical results show that our approach significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines.

User identity linkage (UIL) aims to link identical users engaging in multiple social networks. It has received considerable attention in both academia and industry due to its profound implications for multiple applications. Although existing approaches have achieved promising progress in UIL using various graph learning methods, they usually require a large number of labeled anchor nodes which, however, are difficult to obtain in real-world social platforms due to privacy issues. We introduce a novel UIL model NWUIL (Network Wasserstein learning for UIL) to identify anchor users across social networks in a fully unsupervised manner. Instead of point vector embedding of nodes as in previous methods, NWUIL captures node distribution in Wasserstein space with graph neural networks. We also propose to reformulate the UIL task as an optimal network transport problem, and then introduce an unsupervised mapping process based on the network Wasserstein distance for UIL. In this way, our method not only improves the anchor node aligning accuracy but also alleviates the issues caused by insufficient labeled anchor nodes. We conduct extensive experiments using real-world datasets, and demonstrate that NWUIL significantly outperforms existing unsupervised baselines while showing competitive performance as some state-of-the-art supervised approaches.

Understanding in-network information diffusion is a fundamental problem in many application domains and one of the primary challenges is to predict the size of the information cascade. Most of the existing models rely either on hypothesized point process (e.g., Poisson and Hawkes process), or simply predict the information propagation via deep neural networks. However, they fail to simultaneously capture the underlying structure of a cascade graph and the propagation of uncertainty in the diffusion, which may result in unsatisfactory prediction performance. To address these, in this work we propose a novel probabilistic cascade prediction framework: Variational Cascade (VaCas) graph learning networks. VaCas allows a non-linear information diffusion inference and models the information diffusion process by learning the latent representation of both the structural and temporal information. It is a pattern-agnostic model leveraging variational inference to learn the node-level and cascade-level latent factors in an unsupervised manner. In addition, VaCas is capable of capturing both the cascade representation uncertainty and node infection uncertainty, while enabling hierarchical pattern learning of information diffusion. Extensive experiments conducted on real-world datasets demonstrate that VaCas significantly improves the prediction accuracy, compared to state-of-the-art approaches, while also enabling interpretability.