The past decades witness the significant advancements in time series forecasting (TSF) across various real-world domains, including e-commerce and disease spread prediction. However, TSF is usually constrained by the uncertainty dilemma of predicting future data with limited past observations. To settle this question, we explore the use of Cross-Future Behavior (CFB) in TSF, which occurs before the current time but takes effect in the future. We leverage CFB features and propose the CRoss-Future Behavior Awareness based Time Series Forecasting method (CRAFT). The core idea of CRAFT is to utilize the trend of cross-future behavior to mine the trend of time series data to be predicted. Specifically, to settle the sparse and partial flaws of cross-future behavior, CRAFT employs the Koopman Predictor Module to extract the key trend and the Internal Trend Mining Module to supplement the unknown area of the cross-future behavior matrix. Then, we introduce the External Trend Guide Module with a hierarchical structure to acquire more representative trends from higher levels. Finally, we apply the demand-constrained loss to calibrate the distribution deviation of prediction results. We conduct experiments on real-world dataset. Experiments on both offline large-scale dataset and online A/B test demonstrate the effectiveness of CRAFT. Our dataset and code are available at https://github.com/CRAFTinTSF/CRAFT.

Broad adoption of online travel platforms (OTPs) has led to increasing focus on hotel dynamic pricing algorithms, which directly affect the revenue of platform and hotels. Existing approaches, which directly model the correlation between price and occupancy, have limitations in improving occupancy prediction accuracy while ensuring interpretability for dynamic pricing. Moreover, these methods struggle to address the significant data sparsity issue in hotel pricing scenarios. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel Causality-driven Hotel Dynamic Pricing Model (CANDY) that captures the essential causal relationship between price and occupancy, enhancing occupancy prediction accuracy and interpretability for dynamic pricing. Specifically, we decompose confounders into three orthogonal groups of factors: characteristic factors, competitive factors, and temporal factors, and design submodules to capture the features of each dimension. To address the treatment bias and sample imbalance issues faced by existing causal inference methods in hotel pricing scenarios, we propose a novel data augmentation method based on the monotonic relationship between price and occupancy, and further design a multi-task learning framework tailored to multi-valued treatment scenarios, simultaneously alleviating the data sparsity issue. Both offline and online experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of CANDY in occupancy prediction and dynamic pricing. CANDY has been successfully deployed to provide price suggestion service at Fliggy, a leading OTP in China, serving thousands of hotel operators.

Motivated by the collaboration with Fliggy1, a leading Online Travel Platform (OTP), we investigate an important but less explored research topic about optimizing the quality of hotel supply, namely selecting potential profitable hotels in advance to build up adequate room inventory. We formulate a WWW problem, i.e., within a specific time period (When) and potential travel area (Where), which hotels should be recommended to a certain group of users with similar travel intentions (Why). We identify three critical challenges in solving the WWW problem: user groups generation, travel data sparsity and utilization of hotel recommendation information (e.g., period, location and intention). To this end, we propose LINet, a Location and Intention-aware neural Network for hotel group recommendation. Specifically, LINet first identifies user travel intentions for user groups generalization, and then characterizes the group preferences by jointly considering historical user-hotel interaction and spatio-temporal features of hotels. For data sparsity, we develop a graph neural network, which employs long-term data, and further design an auxiliary loss function of location that efficiently exploits data within the same and across different locations. Both offline and online experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of LINet when compared with state-of-the-art methods. LINet has been successfully deployed on Fliggy to retrieve high quality hotels for business development, serving hundreds of hotel operation scenarios and thousands of hotel operators.

Automatic modulation classification facilitates many important signal processing applications. Recently, deep learning models have been adopted in modulation recognition, which outperform traditional machine learning techniques based on hand-crafted features. However, automatic modulation classification is still challenging due to the following reasons. Existing deep learning methods are only applicable to the data of the same distribution. In practical scenarios, data distribution is varying with sampling frequency, thus domains with different sampling rates are formed. Besides, it is difficult to construct large-scale well-annotated datasets for all domains of interest. We define the domain with sufficient data as the source domain, while the domain with insufficient data as the target domain. Obviously, the classification model performs weakly in the target domain. To address these challenges, we propose an adversarial transfer learning architecture (ATLA), incorporating adversarial training and knowledge transfer in a unified way. Adversarial training performs an asymmetric mapping between domains and reduces the domain shift. Knowledge transfer is used to mine prior knowledge from the source domain. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed ATLA substantially boosts the performance of the target model, which outperforms the existing parameter-transfer approach. With half of the training data reduced, the target model achieves competitive recognition accuracy to supervised learning. With one-tenth of training data, the promoted accuracy is up to 17.3% points.