Link prediction is one of the central problems in graph mining. However, recent studies highlight the importance of higher-order network analysis, where complex structures called motifs are the first-class citizens. We first show that existing link prediction schemes fail to effectively predict motifs. To alleviate this, we establish a general motif prediction problem and we propose several heuristics that assess the chances for a specified motif to appear. To make the scores realistic, our heuristics consider - among others - correlations between links, i.e., the potential impact of some arriving links on the appearance of other links in a given motif. Finally, for highest accuracy, we develop a graph neural network (GNN) architecture for motif prediction. Our architecture offers vertex features and sampling schemes that capture the rich structural properties of motifs. While our heuristics are fast and do not need any training, GNNs ensure highest accuracy of predicting motifs, both for dense (e.g., k-cliques) and for sparse ones (e.g., k-stars). We consistently outperform the best available competitor by more than 10% on average and up to 32% in area under the curve. Importantly, the advantages of our approach over schemes based on uncorrelated link prediction increase with the increasing motif size and complexity. We also successfully apply our architecture for predicting more arbitrary clusters and communities, illustrating its potential for graph mining beyond motif analysis.

Important graph mining problems such as Clustering are computationally demanding. To significantly accelerate these problems, we propose ProbGraph: a graph representation that enables simple and fast approximate parallel graph mining with strong theoretical guarantees on work, depth, and result accuracy. The key idea is to represent sets of vertices using probabilistic set representations such as Bloom filters. These representations are much faster to process than the original vertex sets thanks to vectorizability and small size. We use these representations as building blocks in important parallel graph mining algorithms such as Clique Counting or Clustering. When enhanced with ProbGraph, these algorithms significantly outperform tuned parallel exact baselines (up to nearly 50 x on 32 cores) while ensuring accuracy of more than 90% for many input graph datasets. Our novel bounds and algorithms based on probabilistic set representations with desirable statistical properties are of separate interest for the data analytics community. Proofs of theorems & more results: http://arxiv.org/abs/2208.11469