MOTIVATION: Building reliable phylogenies from very large collections of sequences with a limited number of phylogenetically informative sites is challenging because sequencing errors and recurrent/backward mutations interfere with the phylogenetic signal, confounding true evolutionary relationships. Massive global efforts of sequencing genomes and reconstructing the phylogeny of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) strains exemplify these difficulties since there are only hundreds of phylogenetically informative sites but millions of genomes. For such datasets, we set out to develop a method for building the phylogenetic tree of genomic haplotypes consisting of positions harboring common variants to improve the signal-to-noise ratio for more accurate and fast phylogenetic inference of resolvable phylogenetic features. RESULTS: We present the TopHap approach that determines spatiotemporally common haplotypes of common variants and builds their phylogeny at a fraction of the computational time of traditional methods. We develop a bootstrap strategy that resamples genomes spatiotemporally to assess topological robustness. The application of TopHap to build a phylogeny of 68 057 SARS-CoV-2 genomes (68KG) from the first year of the pandemic produced an evolutionary tree of major SARS-CoV-2 haplotypes. This phylogeny is concordant with the mutation tree inferred using the co-occurrence pattern of mutations and recovers key phylogenetic relationships from more traditional analyses. We also evaluated alternative roots of the SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny and found that the earliest sampled genomes in 2019 likely evolved by four mutations of the most recent common ancestor of all SARS-CoV-2 genomes. An application of TopHap to more than 1 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes reconstructed the most comprehensive evolutionary relationships of major variants, which confirmed the 68KG phylogeny and provided evolutionary origins of major and recent variants of concern. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: TopHap is available at https://github.com/SayakaMiura/TopHap. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

MOTIVATION: Precise time calibrations needed to estimate ages of species divergence are not always available due to fossil records' incompleteness. Consequently, clock calibrations available for Bayesian dating analyses can be few and diffused, i.e. phylogenies are calibration-poor, impeding reliable inference of the timetree of life. We examined the role of speciation birth-death (BD) tree prior on Bayesian node age estimates in calibration-poor phylogenies and tested the usefulness of an informative, data-driven tree prior to enhancing the accuracy and precision of estimated times. RESULTS: We present a simple method to estimate parameters of the BD tree prior from the molecular phylogeny for use in Bayesian dating analyses. The use of a data-driven birth-death (ddBD) tree prior leads to improvement in Bayesian node age estimates for calibration-poor phylogenies. We show that the ddBD tree prior, along with only a few well-constrained calibrations, can produce excellent node ages and credibility intervals, whereas the use of an uninformative, uniform (flat) tree prior may require more calibrations. Relaxed clock dating with ddBD tree prior also produced better results than a flat tree prior when using diffused node calibrations. We also suggest using ddBD tree priors to improve the detection of outliers and influential calibrations in cross-validation analyses.These results have practical applications because the ddBD tree prior reduces the number of well-constrained calibrations necessary to obtain reliable node age estimates. This would help address key impediments in building the grand timetree of life, revealing the process of speciation and elucidating the dynamics of biological diversification. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: An R module for computing the ddBD tree prior, simulated datasets and empirical datasets are available at https://github.com/cathyqqtao/ddBD-tree-prior.

MOTIVATION: As the number and diversity of species and genes grow in contemporary datasets, two common assumptions made in all molecular dating methods, namely the time-reversibility and stationarity of the substitution process, become untenable. No software tools for molecular dating allow researchers to relax these two assumptions in their data analyses. Frequently the same General Time Reversible (GTR) model across lineages along with a gamma (+Γ) distributed rates across sites is used in relaxed clock analyses, which assumes time-reversibility and stationarity of the substitution process. Many reports have quantified the impact of violations of these underlying assumptions on molecular phylogeny, but none have systematically analyzed their impact on divergence time estimates. RESULTS: We quantified the bias on time estimates that resulted from using the GTR + Γ model for the analysis of computer-simulated nucleotide sequence alignments that were evolved with non-stationary (NS) and non-reversible (NR) substitution models. We tested Bayesian and RelTime approaches that do not require a molecular clock for estimating divergence times. Divergence times obtained using a GTR + Γ model differed only slightly (∼3% on average) from the expected times for NR datasets, but the difference was larger for NS datasets (∼10% on average). The use of only a few calibrations reduced these biases considerably (∼5%). Confidence and credibility intervals from GTR + Γ analysis usually contained correct times. Therefore, the bias introduced by the use of the GTR + Γ model to analyze datasets, in which the time-reversibility and stationarity assumptions are violated, is likely not large and can be reduced by applying multiple calibrations. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: All datasets are deposited in Figshare: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12594638.

Pathogen timetrees are phylogenies scaled to time. They reveal the temporal history of a pathogen spread through the populations as captured in the evolutionary history of strains. These timetrees are inferred by using molecular sequences of pathogenic strains sampled at different times. That is, temporally sampled sequences enable the inference of sequence divergence times. Here, we present a new approach (RelTime with Dated Tips [RTDT]) to estimating pathogen timetrees based on a relative rate framework underlying the RelTime approach that is algebraic in nature and distinct from all other current methods. RTDT does not require many of the priors demanded by Bayesian approaches, and it has light computing requirements. In analyses of an extensive collection of computer-simulated datasets, we found the accuracy of RTDT time estimates and the coverage probabilities of their confidence intervals (CIs) to be excellent. In analyses of empirical datasets, RTDT produced dates that were similar to those reported in the literature. In comparative benchmarking with Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods (LSD, TreeTime, and treedater), we found that no method performed the best in every scenario. So, we provide a brief guideline for users to select the most appropriate method in empirical data analysis. RTDT is implemented for use via a graphical user interface and in high-throughput settings in the newest release of cross-platform MEGA X software, freely available from http://www.megasoftware.net.